There’s a reason you don’t hear of dictators having happy endings. To maintain rule you have to stamp out even a bit of obstruction(at least that’s how they operate).
They don’t have fair elections cause they don’t care what people think.
Putin doesn’t want a free moving Ukraine cause stuff he cares about they might not go his way. Which is the worst thing you can do to a dictator.
I mean think about it. How many people were actually going to read that Khashoggi(sp?) dude’s article in Saudi Arabia? He just didn’t like that dude.
Good point, there’s definitely a chance that even guaranteed neutrality would’ve still fell short. After all, this all became an issue the moment the Russian leaning Yakunovich was taken out in 2014 which to your point was a moment of things not going right for a dictator.
The more I think about it, I think the failed transition from Soviet Russia to the current iteration is a bigger factor than even the NATO expansion. Perhaps a Russia that practiced good governance and democratic norms would’ve not only made NATO expansion a non-factor, but it might’ve also brought Russia into the alliance itself.
Another side thought, any countries that have nukes or a program to develop them will be much more reluctant to give it up. Ukraine gave theirs up on the promise that Russia and the West would both safeguard them and now Russia attacking them.