Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

[jj23]

The ISW further speculates that Prigozhin saw the Ministry of Defence’s 1 July deadline for all irregular forces, including his Wagner group, to sign contracts with the government as an “existential threat to his political (and possibly personal) survival”.

He therefore “gambled that his only avenue to retain Wagner Group as an independent force was to march against the Russian MoD, likely intending to secure defections in the Russian military but overestimating his own prospects”.

Due to the speed and coordination of Wagner movements, Prigozhin “almost certainly planned this effort in advance,” the thinktank writes – that aligns with US media reports that US intelligence suspected up to two weeks ago that he was planning to take action against Moscow.

The thinktank also suggests that the rebellion may have eroded support for Prigozhin among the utranationalist community and even within Wagner itself, as it forced Wagner-affiliated regional authorities and recruitment organizations to denounce the effort.

Prigozhin also likely angered many Wagner personnel and Wagner-sympathetic ultranationalists by not following through with his attempted march on Moscow.

The agreement brokered by Belarus may also upset Wagner personnel, as it marks the end of efforts to keep Wagner from being subordinated to the MoD.

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

Russia mercenary threat revives concern over nuclear arsenal security

The Wagner mercenary group's march on Moscow has revived an old fear in Washington: what happens to Russia's nuclear stockpile in the event of domestic upheaval.

www.reuters.com

US convenes nuclear weapons meeting with China, France, Russia, UK

The United States this month convened a meeting of working-level experts from China, France, Russia and the United Kingdom to discuss nuclear weapons issues including strategic risk reduction.

www.reuters.com

 

[Neo. The Only. The One.]

The fact that out of all the parties involved, that fool Lukashenko comes out of this looking like the big dawg has me

He is the only winner in this whole Russia coup situation so far. This is insane.

Dude just raised his standing over 9000 in one day

 

[Neo. The Only. The One.]

I'm curious as to why the Crimean bridge hasn't been hit again. I'm also curious about the lack of reaction to this by Ukraine on the ground. Assuming that they were just as surprised by today's turn of events I suppose it makes sense to sit back and watch. There are just so many moving pieces on this board that it's hard to make sense of some things.

As I said earlier, Ukraine could not get involved at all or they would run the risk of unifying Russia against them. Right now there is a huge fault line running through the Russian government... and a quake could happen at any second. All Ukraine needs to do is keep doing what they've been doing and wait for Russia to implode on its own.

 

[the next guy]

Putin is faking the funk...

 

[Liu Kang]

Welp the whole thing was bizarre.

Prigozhin ends up half assing it probably angering all sides : the government by making them look weak, the army by killing some of them and its own mercs by selling them out (if the deal is what it is). And Prigozhin gets to leave to Belarus untouched ?

How can Putin save face ? Dude got lil bro'd by both Lukashenko and Prigozhin and accused the latter of treason only to cut a deal with him. Its own army got punked by Wagner, that's a L that probably has his military brass seething.

I guess we'll know more in a couple of weeks but the current ending is absurd lol

 

[Arizax2]

Welp the whole thing was bizarre.

Prigozhin ends up half assing it probably angering all sides : the government by making them look weak, the army by killing some of them and its own mercs by selling them out (if the deal is what it is). And Prigozhin gets to leave to Belarus untouched ?

How can Putin save face ? Dude got lil bro'd by both Lukashenko and Prigozhin and accused the latter of treason only to cut a deal with him. Its own army got punked by Wagner, that's a L that probably has his military brass seething.

I guess we'll know more in a couple of weeks but the current ending is absurd lol

Agreed. Putin looks weak as fukk but the alternative was to battle it out with Wagner and run the risk that they took over Mascow. Even if they didn't, Wagner was going to bring the heat to the streets of Mascow and the Russian civilians having to deal with what Ukraine had to endure will be too much for them. Putin was in a lose lose situation. It's better to just take an image hit by cutting a deal instead of running the risk of the civilians getting killed, city getting destroyed and dealing with civilian unrest which affect his ability to continue to brainwash them and stay in power.

 

[ill]

Welp the whole thing was bizarre.

Prigozhin ends up half assing it probably angering all sides : the government by making them look weak, the army by killing some of them and its own mercs by selling them out (if the deal is what it is). And Prigozhin gets to leave to Belarus untouched ?

How can Putin save face ? Dude got lil bro'd by both Lukashenko and Prigozhin and accused the latter of treason only to cut a deal with him. Its own army got punked by Wagner, that's a L that probably has his military brass seething.

I guess we'll know more in a couple of weeks but the current ending is absurd lol

The way this ended up playing out still makes zero sense to me. Prigozhin had the will, support, momentum, and opportunity to accomplish his mission and he just said fukk it? Didn't want Russian bloodshed yet shot down multiple Russian helis... I'm starting to believe that tinfoil Reddit post that was posted in here about Putin planning all of this himself.

 

[RiverCity916]

Putin looks like a ho

 

[voiture]

The way this ended up playing out still makes zero sense to me. Prigozhin had the will, support, momentum, and opportunity to accomplish his mission and he just said fukk it? Didn't want Russian bloodshed yet shot down multiple Russian helis... I'm starting to believe that tinfoil Reddit post that was posted in here about Putin planning all of this himself.

He planned all this himself and was OK with losing a few attack helicopters and pilots in the process?

 

[Shogun]

if it’s true that the Wagner troops are being folded into the regular Russian army…could a silver lining be that the Wagner presence in other continents will end?

 

[Json]

The way this ended up playing out still makes zero sense to me. Prigozhin had the will, support, momentum, and opportunity to accomplish his mission and he just said fukk it? Didn't want Russian bloodshed yet shot down multiple Russian helis... I'm starting to believe that tinfoil Reddit post that was posted in here about Putin planning all of this himself.

Did he though?

American had a bunch of rebellions early on and they didn’t work. You usually need the military’s support to overthrow. Putin wasn’t his direct target. He was trying to oust some military ministers. Which is actually a lot harder in terms of not toppling a government fully.

They were getting soldiers to lay down arms and let them go and avoiding other bases but they didn’t join in. So we don’t really know what would happen when they actually got resistance. He had no plan of act to actually go into Moscow and Putin and his cronies probably weren’t even there.

 

[Liu Kang]

if it’s true that the Wagner troops are being folded into the regular Russian army…could a silver lining be that the Wagner presence in other continents will end?

From what I read the deal is this :
- if Wagnerites signs with MOD, then they'll be integrated into the army
- if they don't, they will only be able to operate on foreign soil basically so likely moved to Africa.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

 

[[Something Cool]]

I can’t fathom being a Russian Soldier on the front lines right now. “I’m in the trenches fighting people who I might be related to. Then I hear rumors about the paid goons trying to overthrow the government. Half of my coworkers are dead. What exactly am I fighting for? I was a middle school teacher 6 months ago “