Unpopular view:
I think Russia may still have a shot at victory. They are doubling down and appear to be in this fight for the long haul. I think Putin is banking on the European countries to drawback support due to public pressure that will arise when the energy crisis really unfolds. And because of actions by the Fed, the US may be headed into recession which could lead to the reelection of Trump or someone Trump adjacent.
Perhaps, hopefully I'm wrong.
Define "victory"....But, before you do that you need to digest all of the L's that Putin has taken up to this point. Then you ask yourself "What kind of victory would it take to erase all of those L's?" Because those L's ain't going away. Those sanctions have already proven that Russia is
not a self sufficient nation capable of producing all that domestic consumption requires. Let me put it to you this way, If sanctions remain in place a year from now Russia will not have a commercial airline industry. Period. Airbags in cars have already been tossed in the bushes because they can't manufacture them. This will cascade throughout all of Russian society.
As for Trump and the rise of the far right in Europe, meh... Putin is now seen as an existential threat to Europe, that's to say a massive shift in perception has taken place and I don't think National politics can tip the scale at this point, not even a Trump reelection. Worst case scenario is Trump pulls the U.S. out of NATO. Now Russia feels free to attack NATO soil and Article 5 kicks in.
Ain't no victory for Putin in this.