Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

Mister Terrific

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The only way they "win" is by literally committing an insane amount of indiscriminate bombing and destruction of civilian targets to force the ukrainian leadership to negotiate a peace for the sake of the country... but if the goal is to annex most or all of ukraine/install a puppet leader.... sending them back to the stone age isnt gonna help.

Idk what the Euros are gonna do. Lots of right wingers being elected right now, thats not good for Ukraine either.
Russia doesn’t have the capability to bomb Ukraine to that extent outside of nukes and even if it did terror bombing dating back to WW2 has proven to be ineffective at causing countries to capitulate. Didn’t work in WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Chechnya, Bosnia etc. Usually it does nothing but stiffen civilian resistance.
 

jj23

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Trying to turn Ukraine into Syria.

NATO doesn't have any good options, they will need to commit.

Really looks like this end in nukes and Russia along with a few other places will cease to exist.
 

Cuban Pete

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Russia doesn’t have the capability to bomb Ukraine to that extent outside of nukes and even if it did terror bombing dating back to WW2 has proven to be ineffective at causing countries to capitulate. Didn’t work in WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Chechnya, Bosnia etc. Usually it does nothing but stiffen civilian resistance.

They literally just terror bombed like 14 different cities simultaneously right now. So they have the capability. Can they keep it up? I dont think so but Im not a military expert. Ukraine is being fukked up rn in response to the Crimea bridge bombing.
 

Orbital-Fetus

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Unpopular view:
I think Russia may still have a shot at victory. They are doubling down and appear to be in this fight for the long haul. I think Putin is banking on the European countries to drawback support due to public pressure that will arise when the energy crisis really unfolds. And because of actions by the Fed, the US may be headed into recession which could lead to the reelection of Trump or someone Trump adjacent.

Perhaps, hopefully I'm wrong.

Define "victory"....But, before you do that you need to digest all of the L's that Putin has taken up to this point. Then you ask yourself "What kind of victory would it take to erase all of those L's?" Because those L's ain't going away. Those sanctions have already proven that Russia is not a self sufficient nation capable of producing all that domestic consumption requires. Let me put it to you this way, If sanctions remain in place a year from now Russia will not have a commercial airline industry. Period. Airbags in cars have already been tossed in the bushes because they can't manufacture them. This will cascade throughout all of Russian society.

As for Trump and the rise of the far right in Europe, meh... Putin is now seen as an existential threat to Europe, that's to say a massive shift in perception has taken place and I don't think National politics can tip the scale at this point, not even a Trump reelection. Worst case scenario is Trump pulls the U.S. out of NATO. Now Russia feels free to attack NATO soil and Article 5 kicks in.

Ain't no victory for Putin in this.
 

Orbital-Fetus

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So far as the European energy crisis this winter goes, Russia couldn't supply gas even if both parties agreed to it at this point. Nord Stream 1 & 2 are done. Putin no longer has gas as a bargaining chip. Europe is gonna have to tough it out with whatever help the U.S. and Canada can send over. Europe needs LNG facilities immediately if not sooner but that takes years unless they start using floating LNG units.

Live in interesting times, brehs...
 

Mister Terrific

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They literally just terror bombed like 14 different cities simultaneously right now. So they have the capability. Can they keep it up? I dont think so but Im not a military expert. Ukraine is being fukked up rn in response to the Crimea bridge bombing.

These missile strikes look desperate and unfocused, in order to turn Ukraine into the “Stone Age” they’d have to show a lot more capability including what they’ve failed to do so far which is established air superiority. Cruise missiles launched off shore isn’t going to cut it. Also, it may facilitate the US supplying Ukraine more modern anti-missile defense systems.

Ultimately, terror bombing has shown to have limited impact on civilian morale. Usually just makes people angry and more likely to resist
 
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