Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

Neo. The Only. The One.

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Welp... we always knew that this wouldn't stay in the news forever. The attention of Americans is elsewhere and the majority aren't paying attention anymore.

Kudos to the Biden administration who continues to be involved in and focused on this war, and continue to send aid even though it's fallen out of popularity with the American people. Biden is the president we need, but don't deserve.
 
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987654321 said:
I’m not sure why y’all are bringing twitter sources into this.
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One of the worst aspects of the coverage on all sides, especially on this site, is the reliance on Twitter sources and the quickest hot takes possible. 1/4 of the time they're straight fake news and 4/5 of the rest of the time they're too out-of-context or lacking nuance to be useful at all.




987654321 said:
Such is war. No one is “winning”. They’re locked in with each other. They’re both going to pick up and drop momentum, they’re both going to give and take. Just watch the rhythm, the ebb and flow, and learn.

The more you learn about the units involved, the terrain being used, the combat support, the use of hasty and deliberate pace, the more understanding will be had. No matter however long this lasts, it will be painful. Til then there really isn’t any reason for arguing other than being contrarian or petty.

Basically Russia is a guy who tried to rape a drunken woman (Ukraine with resources) in broad daylight, just to show that he can, but she’s using a short, dull razor to slowly gut him. He’s hoping that repeatedly punching her in the face will make her relax enough for him to finish or get out. He’s also hoping that the harder he punches, the more he can scare off bystanders hoping to give her bigger blades or help get her off him.

I don’t see Russia coming out of this with any more territory than they had before the most recent invasion.
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Pretty disturbing way to put it but what's happening is indeed disturbing.

The "rah rah!" takes and updates like it's a sports match are disturbing me more and more the longer it goes on.
 
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987654321

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Rhakim said:
One of the worst aspects of the coverage on all sides, especially on this site, is the reliance on Twitter sources and the quickest hot takes possible. 1/4 of the time they're straight fake news and 4/5 of the rest of the time they're too out-of-context or lacking nuance to be useful at all.






Pretty disturbing way to put it but what's happening is indeed disturbing.

The "rah rah!" takes and updates like it's a sports match are disturbing me more and more the longer it goes on.
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From the top down it would look a lot like thousands of O and D lines going at it at range. As you get closer really boils down to countless squads, trying to figure each other out, and execute; each man can only do his small piece of something much greater.

There’s always a myth that a military’s dumbest are infantrymen. They're some of the most intelligent, high functioning thinkers you’ll ever meet (the dumbest are concentrated in arty or the motor pool lol). Getting where you need to be and executing your role, with the rest of your squad in mind are a combinations of luck, skill, and endless hours of nuanced experience.

Even your best could get hit above the eyebrow by a piece of shrapnel from a grenade that someone threw not even thinking they’ll hit someone. You see disturbing things but I would never look at the process at disturbing. I see it as more sacred than that. In movies it looks like a bunch of people getting in a line and shooting until bullets magically hit the bad guy( I also think that’s what people who support Russia picture. A big invincible steamrolling line of olive drab. They’re actually miserable, desperate, scrambling for consistently, and terrified).

In reality, like football, it’s more like watching an extremely violent ballet play out. Planning, communication, and execution.
 
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987654321 said:
Such is war. No one is “winning”. They’re locked in with each other. They’re both going to pick up and drop momentum, they’re both going to give and take. Just watch the rhythm, the ebb and flow, and learn.

The more you learn about the units involved, the terrain being used, the combat support, the use of hasty and deliberate pace, the more understanding will be had. No matter however long this lasts, it will be painful. Til then there really isn’t any reason for arguing other than being contrarian or petty.

Basically Russia is a guy who tried to rape a drunken woman (Ukraine with resources) in broad daylight, just to show that he can, but she’s using a short, dull razor to slowly gut him. He’s hoping that repeatedly punching her in the face will make her relax enough for him to finish or get out. He’s also hoping that the harder he punches, the more he can scare off bystanders hoping to give her bigger blades or help get her off him.

I don’t see Russia coming out of this with any more territory than they had before the most recent invasion.
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They've undeniably made gains over the last month however have failed to roll over Donbas as initially planned. End of the day this is going like a lot of people suspected after the initial push on Kyiv failed. It's a war of attrition and Russia is running out of resources. That's difficult to impossible for an invading military force. By mid August to September, Russia could be completely spent, barring some strategic blunder by Ukraine.
 
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Redguard said:
What are the chances of Russia heading towards an economic collapse?
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You probably have to define collapse first. How shytty does a recession have to get before it counts as a collapse?

I heard an exiled Russian economist on NPR the other day suggesting that their automobile industry was going to be really fukked in the near future, due to foreign manufacturers pulling out as well as difficulty in procuring certain parts for their own production. I think several other industries are going to be in huge trouble as well due to that parts importing issue. But will it stop Putin from plugging along as he wants? The same economist said he feels Putin sees Ukraine as an existential issue and that no economic decrease whatsoever will sway him, which is a scary thought because "existential issue" can mean "employing tactical nukes" or any other extremist shyt. But I don't know that this economist was a legitimate source for Putin's internal thinking either.

If no economic argument will move Putin, then will it move anyone else? Could it be bad enough to result in a coup against Putin? Or a refusal by military soldiers or leaders to continue fighting?
 
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987654321 said:
Severodontesk sits below a bluff, bordering a river. As the Kherson Counter offensive was being set up Ukraine made a big show of making severodonetsk look special (it’s not, just the terrain easily defensible. Study it in a terrain map).

If you look back Ukraine also made a big show of lightly attacking north of Kherson, and another place between severodonetsk and the Kherson region. They also started publicly putting out defeatist headlines (which they never do. Keep in mind that no military in the world is forced to allow media inside their operations, even ours).

Also look back at the date of Russia making a big show of putting an inexplicably large assault force in the region of severodonetsk vs a larger deeper assault into south of Kherson beginning and picking up steam (there’s currently a huge bulge in the southern line. Ukraine put a media blackout in place but there’s a growing assault force touching a exponentially weakened Kherson proper as of last weekend.

When the AFU last withdrew from Severodonetsk they revealed the arty and large caliber mortars hiding on the bluff and chopped the Russians to nothing. They loosely retook it and when the Russians came again the pinned them along a diagonal line and let them Arty have them again. With the city basically ruins it’s more difficult to defend, but the bluff overlooking the city isn’t difficult to defend at all if you’re good at counter battery. They made that area into a cutting board.

The only important pull back was a unit in danger of being surrounded earlier this week (that’s the danger of advancing to fast, you make a bulge and your flanks get exposed. That’s why progress is measured in months and these arguments online are pointless).

The time to monitor and report daily progress ended with Russia’s initial failed assault (back when they put their equivalent of our 18th Airborne Corps into it and they got destroyed). Now is the time to measure last months news by the end of July. I understand that people who don’t understand maneuver warfare may gravitate towards headlines but these moves and headlines aren’t new. A lot of tactics and strategy come from WW1 and WW2 (mostly 2).

One side is appearing weak when they are moderately strong. The other is appearing strong and rapidly altering its plans in hopes of keeping that appearance. Russia isn’t making big gains. I’m not sure why y’all are bringing twitter sources into this. I still have friends deployed to Poland among other friends doing other cool things. Also Learn to read terrain.

In a nutshell Ukraine is basically using a combination of Russia’s WW2 tactics against them on some Floyd mayweather shyt and similar tactics from the retaking of France and Belgium. Russia went from a poor attempt at the OIF I “thunder run” to Baghdad, to looking like us in Vietnam, to looking like themselves in 80’s Afghanistan. They’re chewing themselves up because they think NATO and the EU are going to give up. They aren’t going to give up because then they’ll be stuck under Russia’s thumb, resource-wise. Ukraine can give them more of the same services and resources without having to put up with Russia’s micro bullying.

PS: The Himars system is terrifying, even if they’re friendly, if no one tells you that they are about to being fired. I wouldn’t want to be on the wrong side of that.

I’ll chime in here and there because I enjoy the subject, but I’m not going back and forth with anyone who can’t, at least run a maneuver squad, or has had their nose in the dirt looking for a way to survive the day. You can’t understand the context at the ground level and you overreact to videos and headlines. Let it all play out and try to learn as much as you can about what Ukraine is doing on the ground. If you’re going to learn about anything Russia is doing then closely watch videos of their special operations units. They’ve been the only truly patient and measured forces on their side.

*edited for autocorrect mistakes
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Hey bro, im trying to understand your post, So Ukraine has been losing all that land, men, and material in order to do what exactly?
 
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