Severodontesk sits below a bluff, bordering a river. As the Kherson Counter offensive was being set up Ukraine made a big show of making severodonetsk look special (it’s not, just the terrain easily defensible. Study it in a terrain map).
If you look back Ukraine also made a big show of lightly attacking north of Kherson, and another place between severodonetsk and the Kherson region. They also started publicly putting out defeatist headlines (which they never do. Keep in mind that no military in the world is forced to allow media inside their operations, even ours).
Also look back at the date of Russia making a big show of putting an inexplicably large assault force in the region of severodonetsk vs a larger deeper assault into south of Kherson beginning and picking up steam (there’s currently a huge bulge in the southern line. Ukraine put a media blackout in place but there’s a growing assault force touching a exponentially weakened Kherson proper as of last weekend.
When the AFU last withdrew from Severodonetsk they revealed the arty and large caliber mortars hiding on the bluff and chopped the Russians to nothing. They loosely retook it and when the Russians came again the pinned them along a diagonal line and let them Arty have them again. With the city basically ruins it’s more difficult to defend, but the bluff overlooking the city isn’t difficult to defend at all if you’re good at counter battery. They made that area into a cutting board.
The only important pull back was a unit in danger of being surrounded earlier this week (that’s the danger of advancing to fast, you make a bulge and your flanks get exposed. That’s why progress is measured in months and these arguments online are pointless).
The time to monitor and report daily progress ended with Russia’s initial failed assault (back when they put their equivalent of our 18th Airborne Corps into it and they got destroyed). Now is the time to measure last months news by the end of July. I understand that people who don’t understand maneuver warfare may gravitate towards headlines but these moves and headlines aren’t new. A lot of tactics and strategy come from WW1 and WW2 (mostly 2).
One side is appearing weak when they are moderately strong. The other is appearing strong and rapidly altering its plans in hopes of keeping that appearance. Russia isn’t making big gains. I’m not sure why y’all are bringing twitter sources into this. I still have friends deployed to Poland among other friends doing other cool things. Also Learn to read terrain.
In a nutshell Ukraine is basically using a combination of Russia’s WW2 tactics against them on some Floyd mayweather shyt and similar tactics from the retaking of France and Belgium. Russia went from a poor attempt at the OIF I “thunder run” to Baghdad, to looking like us in Vietnam, to looking like themselves in 80’s Afghanistan. They’re chewing themselves up because they think NATO and the EU are going to give up. They aren’t going to give up because then they’ll be stuck under Russia’s thumb, resource-wise. Ukraine can give them more of the same services and resources without having to put up with Russia’s micro bullying.
PS: The Himars system is terrifying, even if they’re friendly, if no one tells you that they are about to being fired. I wouldn’t want to be on the wrong side of that.
I’ll chime in here and there because I enjoy the subject, but I’m not going back and forth with anyone who can’t, at least run a maneuver squad, or has had their nose in the dirt looking for a way to survive the day. You can’t understand the context at the ground level and you overreact to videos and headlines. Let it all play out and try to learn as much as you can about what Ukraine is doing on the ground. If you’re going to learn about anything Russia is doing then closely watch videos of their special operations units. They’ve been the only truly patient and measured forces on their side.
*edited for autocorrect mistakes