POTUS or Prisoner; The '24 Trump Campaign Fvckery thread

GnauzBookOfRhymes

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It's easy for me to argue against that idea, considering how far his poll numbers have plummeted since he took office.


This isn't about what I believe, or what you believe. You can make a great argument that he's outperformed our expectations. But if "damn near everyone" was impressed with how well he's governed, then his approval rating wouldn't have fallen from 50-55% during his presidency's first year to just 35-40% now.

This is objectively false.

Arizona: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/arizona/

Georgia: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/

Michigan: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/

Pennsylvania: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/

Wisconsin: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/wisconsin/


He's behind or tied in the majority of polls in all of those states. And that's especially worrisome considering that he underperformed his poll numbers in most of those states the last time around, especially Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.





Whether I think he's more competent than Trump is irrelevant. I think he's definitely less competent than the other Democratic options. Not his fault - that would be true for almost anyone in their 80s, and he's not bucking the trend.

And, sadly, for a variety of reasons some less justified than others, he projects as less mentally competent than Trump to half or more of the population.





Based on what precedent lol? Just like they made Feinstein stand aside?





All this flipping and yet they're a House minority, have just 48 Senators (plus the three independents), and control just 20 state legislatures. And are almost certain to lose that Senate lead in 2024.

If you get your news in an echo chamber, then you hype all the victories and ignore the defeats, and it gives you this wonderful perception of what is going on. But the truth is that the Democrats are waaay behind where they were 15 years ago and nobody in the party seems like they seriously want to address that.

Breh just stop. I'm the last mf in here that you could credibly accuse of being in an echo chamber. I have zero problems going at Dems and have been talking for years about their weaknesses/liabilities etc.

But your analysis is off base and you're starting to do that thing where ppl make accusations (such as your point about feinstein) completely ignoring the context. I hate arguing w/ ppl like that bc you end up spending all this time correcting the record.

Let's just return to this post in a year.
 

Silky Johnson

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@Silky Johnson, you negged me and called this defeatist, but I'm not being defeatist, I want to win. Which will best be done with a candidate other than Joe Biden in 2024.

I want to win but let me tell you why my team is going to lose is literally the definition of a defeatist, breh.

I'm not just talking about how he underperformed and nearly lost in 2020, but also how he was trash all three presidential races he's done, and how he has some of the worst approval ratings right now that we've ever seen for a Dem. He's an objectively poor presidential candidate who is terrible on the campaign trail, can't run on his record, and is way, way too fukking old. Dems need an exit strategy right now, but they're so fukking committed to the establishment that they refuse to acknowledge it.

Defeatists love to nit pick every possible flaw with Biden as if he exists in a vacuum and not competing against a broke-soon-to-felon that he beat last time. What is the GOP doing differently this time around that makes it impossible for Biden to beat them again?
 
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Robbie3000

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15 years ago the Dems had an 80-seat majority in the House, a 15-20 seat majority in the Senate, and controlled nearly 2/3 of state legislatures.

Going back further, from 1935 until 1995, the Democrats controlled both legislatures nearly continuously. For 60 fukking years. And I've never heard Democratic dikkriders blame anything other than the voters for the fact that Dems haven't been able to hold onto the House for even one single legislative session with a Dem as president since Jimmy Carter left the White House in 1980.

It's funny, the full-throated Democratic acceptance of neoliberalism pretty much started in the 1980s too. It's almost as if throwing all their chips in on neoliberalism has cost the Democrats a significant portion of their voting support or something.

Breh, the only thing these conservative Christian nationalists care about is white grievance. I’m fully convinced they would choose a live in squalor if they could stick it to blacks, Mexicans, gays and Muslims etc.

The whitest and poorest states, West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, vote overwhelmingly Republican and attack progressive policies that they could benefit from. Obama’s election was the final straw for them in respect to ever voting Democratic.

How to you even begin to engage these kinds of deplorable people let alone win them over.
 

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I want to win but let me tell you why my team is going to lose is literally the definition of a defeatist, breh.

Is "pessimistic" the word you're looking for?

Defeatist is someone who thinks there's no chance to win and doesn't want to try. Since I'm arguing for Dems to try something, it can't possibly be a "defeatist" position. And even if they stuck with Biden, I think Dems have a shot, it's just a lower shot.



What is the GOP doing differently this time around that makes it impossible for Biden to beat them again?

You're the only one who is saying "impossible".

But what is the GOP doing differently? Well, they don't have to play defense on a shytty economy this time. That is usually good for several percentage points, and since they only lost by a fraction of a percent last time, that alone could put them over the top.
 

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Breh, the only thing these conservative Christian nationalists care about is white grievance. I’m fully convinced they would choose a live in squalor if they could stick it to blacks, Mexicans, gays and Muslims etc.

Yet Democrats still were dominating AFTER the Civil Rights Act passed. That was the biggest fukk you to the white grivance voters possible, back when the parents and grandparents of today's voters were even more racist, and the Dems still were dominating the legislatures.



The whitest and poorest states, West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, vote overwhelmingly Republican and attack progressive policies that they could benefit from. Obama’s election was the final straw for them in respect to ever voting Democratic.

Those are hilarious examples because West Virginia has a Democrat Senator and Kentucky has a Democrat Govenor right now. Kentucky voted for their Democrat governor in 2018 (after voting for a Democrat AG in 2012 and 2016) and West Virginia voted for a Democratic senator in 2010, 2012, and 2018....all six of those elections came after Obama's election and one of those was with Obama right there on the damn ticket. You just proved yourself that the opening for a Democrat to get elected is far wider than you give credit for.

So it's simply wrong to claim that Democrats can't win in those states. And we don't have to just talk about the "whitest poorest states". The issue is also why Democrats are underperforming in North Carolina, and Louisiana, and Missouri, and Wisconsin, and Ohio. Those are a huge mix of states (and there are others like them) where Democrats should be either more competitive or more dominant than they are, but they're struggling like hell right now because they have been shedding voters like crazy all across the spectrum.

Demographically, the Democrats should be kicking ass. The country has been getting less white, the country has been getting more educated, the Baby Boomers have been dying off. Every demographic shift has been to their advantage. So why aren't they showing steadily improving gains?
 

Silky Johnson

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Is "pessimistic" the word you're looking for?

Defeatist is someone who thinks there's no chance to win and doesn't want to try. Since I'm arguing for Dems to try something, it can't possibly be a "defeatist" position. And even if they stuck with Biden, I think Dems have a shot, it's just a lower shot.





You're the only one who is saying "impossible".

This you?
@Silky Johnson... but I'm not being defeatist, I want to win.Which will best be done with a candidate other than Joe Biden in 2024...Dems need an exit strategy right now, but they're so fukking committed to the establishment that they refuse to acknowledge it.

But what is the GOP doing differently? Well, they don't have to play defense on a shytty economy this time. That is usually good for several percentage points, and since they only lost by a fraction of a percent last time, that alone could put them over the top.

Neither will Biden since unemployment is historically low, GDP is rising & inflation is cooling. Any talk about spending is neutered because the Republicans control the house. If they try to run on the economy they will lose.

What other specific policy will the GOP will run on that will move voters away from Biden and to their party?
 

Silky Johnson

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theoffice-stanley.gif


Black voter suppression babble
 

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But what is the GOP doing differently? Well, they don't have to play defense on a shytty economy this time.

Neither will Biden since unemployment is historically low, GDP is rising & inflation is cooling. Any talk about spending is neutered because the Republicans control the house. If they try to run on the economy they will lose.


This is straight delusion status. Do you know any voters at all? I'm on a facebook group in one of the communities we work in, and all they talk about is how shytty the economy is. Doesn't matter whether it is true or not, it is DEFINITELY what voters think.




The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll, published on Thursday, showed 49 percent of likely voters in seven swing states trusted Trump over Biden — who earned 35 percent — on the economy.

Those numbers are even starker for Biden when zeroing in on the independent voters, who could be the determining factor in the 2024 presidential election. About 47 percent said they trusted Trump more, and 25 percent said they trusted Biden more.

The respondents — from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — selected the economy as the most important issue heading into the next presidential election. Eighty-three percent said the issue was “very important,” and 13 percent said it was “somewhat important.”




Biden is down double-digits to Trump on the economy, which voters consider by far the most important issue. Those are terrible numbers for him.


More data:



 

Silky Johnson

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This is straight delusion status. Do you know any voters at all? I'm on a facebook group in one of the communities we work in, and all they talk about is how shytty the economy is. Doesn't matter whether it is true or not, it is DEFINITELY what voters think.




The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll, published on Thursday, showed 49 percent of likely voters in seven swing states trusted Trump over Biden — who earned 35 percent — on the economy.

Those numbers are even starker for Biden when zeroing in on the independent voters, who could be the determining factor in the 2024 presidential election. About 47 percent said they trusted Trump more, and 25 percent said they trusted Biden more.

The respondents — from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — selected the economy as the most important issue heading into the next presidential election. Eighty-three percent said the issue was “very important,” and 13 percent said it was “somewhat important.”




Biden is down double-digits to Trump on the economy, which voters consider by far the most important issue. Those are terrible numbers for him.


More data:




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