It was always going to be a tight race.This is a warning sign. Too many people on here are overconfident.
Why Biden’s Polling Lead vs. Trump Isn’t as Solid as It Looks
Incumbents are always at an advantage. Trump's base really doesn't care what he does. White non-college educated males are still a huge demographic and still overwhelmingly support Trump.
But...I think Biden is going to capture enough voters that wouldn't vote for Hillary to change the tide. That and I don't think the external factors will be kind to Trump by then. But we'll see. Looooong way to go.