afterlife2009

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One thing I believe hurts the left AND Dems is the Abolish ICE shyt while looking like the perception is that they ignore specific black policies .

The Obama aura worked with Biden voters. But deep down, they felt like Biden understood them more than Bernie
I don't think the "he ignore specific black policies" hurts Bernie honestly. He was never getting older black voters in the south. it's not happening. That specific vote is connected to the institution of the Dem party. Bernie is not connected to the institution of the Democratic party. It's why Clyburn is able to mobilize. Bernie is up against Obama nostalgia. Latinos do not have an institutional connection to the party. His margin is so slim with Warren in the race. Bernie does better with us in MI, cali and NY. Here's what I said back in December and looks like it happened...

My prediction is that Bernie's going to have the most delegates after the first three states then go on to lose the south and the discourse from professional class liberals will be Bernie didn’t do enough "woke" stuff to win over southern black voters... even though the person that beat him is crime bill Joe Biden.

I don’t think some people on here and on Twitter have any conception of the institutions and networks that drives voting across demographics -- including black voters in the south

Btw CNN already previewed their Michigan attacks on Bernie. They were talking about how the Green New Deal wants to ban combustion engines by 2030...We got sucked into these detailed plans because of Warren’s position in the race. We're not out of it but the margins lol
 

wtfyomom

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No one is going to be looking at the rally speeches and I doubt they will be looking at the debates going forward.

Joe got it. If Sanders keeps pushing this, he will be beaten by bigger and bigger margins as his disaffected voters trail off and people just coalesce.

I told people in here what the problem was with that us vs them mentality. You start losing and people will chose not you.

Trump has ammo against Biden but let’s not act like he hasn’t given the Dems a trove of material for their base as well.

Whoever Biden picks as his VP will be a backstop the same way he was for Obama.
except trump WON with an us vs them mentality and even more so, bernie is well liked. trump isnt. the bernie haters couldnt wait to come here and gloat, you and other dude telling bernie to drop out. dont get me wrong, contrary to what other dude said im pessimistic. but having said that its way too close to say oh drop out now. foh
 

wtfyomom

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I still think Bernie got this. Can't overreact...

Once all the Super Tuesday delegates are allocated, it'll be a near tie with Biden or Bernie leading.

I'm going to reiterate that from no going forward the most important States to worry about are the swing States in the General election of electability is the #1 concern.

So...

Michigan
Wisconsin
Ohio
Indiana
Florida
Iowa
and NC
ok so lets settle this, youre saying it will be near tied. other dude telling bernie to drop out said its not close. whats the truth ?
 

wtfyomom

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I don't think the "he ignore specific black policies" hurts Bernie honestly. He was never getting older black voters in the south. it's not happening. That specific vote is connected to the institution of the Dem party. Bernie is not connected to the institution of the Democratic party. It's why Clyburn is able to mobilize. Bernie is up against Obama nostalgia. Latinos do not have an institutional connection to the party. His margin is so slim with Warren in the race. Bernie does better with us in MI, cali and NY. Here's what I said back in December and looks like it happened...



Btw CNN already previewed their Michigan attacks on Bernie. They were talking about how the Green New Deal wants to ban combustion engines by 2030...We got sucked into these detailed plans because of Warren’s position in the race. We're not out of it but the margins lol
youve def been spot on, props
 

Json

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except trump WON with an us vs them mentality and even more so, bernie is well liked. trump isnt. the bernie haters couldnt wait to come here and gloat, you and other dude telling bernie to drop out. dont get me wrong, contrary to what other dude said im pessimistic. but having said that its way too close to say oh drop out now. foh
One more time for the back.

Obama was in office for 8 years. He was the them. Drain the swamp was Washington DC. The Media was liberal media(Not the Fox pundits his base likes)

Who is the them in Bernie’s scenario? Liberal media that Dems like? Washington DC people that are largely Dems politically?
Trump? Cool then say Trump.

Unless you are pulling major Republican votes, us vs them campaigns don’t work.
 

storyteller

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No one is going to be looking at the rally speeches and I doubt they will be looking at the debates going forward.

Joe got it. If Sanders keeps pushing this, he will be beaten by bigger and bigger margins as his disaffected voters trail off and people just coalesce.

I told people in here what the problem was with that us vs them mentality. You start losing and people will chose not you.

Trump has ammo against Biden but let’s not act like he hasn’t given the Dems a trove of material for their base as well.

Whoever Biden picks as his VP will be a backstop the same way he was for Obama.

The idea that they'll be able to hide Biden (in a general) like they have for this Primary doesn't seem realistic to me. The gaffes will also be magnified in ways that the Sanders support never did for the sake of avoiding criticism. Trump supporters have already been doing this (I have friends and family in FL).

I also don't know that Trump's trove of material for the Dems will have the same effect. His approval ratings among Republicans are steady over 90%, you're not depressing his turnout no matter what dumb ish he's doing (it's gonna take the economy, coronavirus or both to do that). The Dems are fractured and depressing some of their turnout is a lot easier, especially if Joe Biden is either not present (that hurt Hillary) or is present but sounds like he's losing it (he's done this constantly when present). I'm also not confident that Biden will make a good VP choice...Hillary didn't and I'm curious what promises he's already made to lock up the establishment consolidation moves. I wouldn't count on a VP pick stopping a bleed off from people who realize Biden's not exactly altogether upstairs. We've seen post-debate dips every time.

Also, I think it's reaching to blame us vs them. If you the progressives consolidated behind Bernie with Warren dropping out, Bernie wins a few more states and the conversation is completely different (Texas would be his and he'd win Cali by a larger margin too).
 

Miles Davis

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Breh, I hear you. But banking our futures for a better society by targeting people who aren't old enough to drive yet doesn't instill much confidence or inspiration right now.

:francis:

I'm on broken record mode, but the fact that Biden ran away with Super Tuesday when he was outraised and sleep walked through 2019 and into 2020 leaves me practically speechless.

Had Booty Judge or Klobuchar ran away with Super Tuesday outta nowhere I would have been shocked, and probably more pissed since they're worse than Joe, but it would have been semi-understandable. I'd be pissed, but still determined.

This Biden shyt is soul crushing because it shows that on a national level, certain constants are not malleable AT ALL. You can't out organize or out energize some roadblocks to progress. And that's pretty damn disheartening.
I hear you but what’s our other option? Give up. That’s what they want and I ain’t gonna give them motherfukkers the satisfaction. Imma keep fighting they asses, we really need to get to our people, time and again we running to the people who ain’t done shyt for us or earned our votes cause it’s safe.

There’s no such thing as safe, the world is burning and people are dying one side is on a speed run and the other is at the slower pace. There gonna be hardships but that’s what’s necessary to make things better, look at the civil rights movement. That shyt wasn’t easy but the older folks who were kids then don’t understand this for some reason.
 

Json

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The idea that they'll be able to hide Biden like they have for this Primary doesn't seem realistic to me. The gaffes will also be magnified in ways that the Sanders support never did for the sake of avoiding criticism. Trump supporters have already been doing this (I have friends and family in FL).

I also don't know that Trump's trove of material for the Dems will have the same effect. His approval ratings among Republicans are steady over 90%, you're not depressing his turnout no matter what dumb ish he's doing (it's gonna take the economy, coronavirus or both to do that). The Dems are fractured and depressing some of their turnout is a lot easier, especially if Joe Biden is either not present (that hurt Hillary) or is present but sounds like he's losing it (he's done this constantly when present). I'm also not confident that Biden will make a good VP choice...Hillary didn't and I'm curious what promises he's already made to lock up the establishment consolidation moves. I wouldn't count on a VP pick stopping a bleed off from people who realize Biden's not exactly altogether upstairs. We've seen post-debate dips every time.

Gaffes didn’t sink Bush Jr. Trump. or Biden.

Maybe it’s time to admit it only plays to caricature the politician on SNL but not to make them unpopular. The economy and wars will always tell the tell.

VP wise, it’s wide open except for winning back a some of the younger progressives by grooming them as his replacement in four years.
Also, I think it's reaching to blame us vs them. If you the progressives consolidated behind Bernie with Warren dropping out, Bernie wins a few more states and the conversation is completely different (Texas would be his and he'd win Cali by a larger margin too).

I didn’t vote for Bernie in 2016 and wouldn’t in 2020 unless he was the nom. The reason was because he ran the exact same campaign. The whole reason I liked Warren cause she could slow walk the moderates to a more progressive stance cause she wasn’t a known quantity. Bernie was DOA on converting moderates.
 

A.R.$

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The scary thing for me is that I think as the general approaches, some of the issues that the media hasn't covered will be raised whether people think they should be fair game or not. Trump has been trying to build up that Burisma stuff to the point of getting himself impeached and Biden's gaffes are scary bad. The Dem candidates soft peddled those electability issues, but the Republicans will jump on them. What's worse, any Dem bringing them up would get dog piled by the establishment in spite of the fact that those are fair game for Trump and his cronies.

Negative partisanship is gonna have to do some serious heavy lifting for the Dems to win a Biden ticket...I still think that's possible though since Trump is so awful.
All facts. I fear this is Kerry in 04 all over again
 

afterlife2009

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youve def been spot on, props
There is no progressive movement. Or actually there is but it's a movement of super liberals that are split on the importance of material redistribution for working people and super specific identity activist issues on Twitter. All of our progressive heroes are associated with the Democratic Party, completely toxic in a national electorate and embedded in the activist industrial complex which is funded by billionaires.

Your favorite Twitter lefty who said that Warren was winning the plan war in the summer are now crying that Bernie is losing on the margins. Yeah there was clear voter suppression in Bernie heavy counties but no sympathy :mjgrin:

Btw I think some of the blame and spin from progressive YouTube you'll listen to is off because these people are marks but I will say the campaign made a mistake here. It might be too late for these Obama ads. They should've went into normie Dem mode as soon as they won Nevada but they clearly got cocky with the dem establishment is scared of us stuff. There was always going to be centrist mobilization but Biden has a big lead now. Hopefully Warren drops and we win Michigan

 
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