Software engineers will be the last to be replaced
No one’s sure of anything. There’s a great deal of anxiety in the industry right now. It’s not all because of AI, but AI certainly isn’t helping.
However, most experienced software developers understand the difference between generating simple “demo” code and the level of quality that would be required to actually replace a human. Despite what a lot of the (uninformed) opinion on this sub would lead you to believe, that gap is still significant. No 1m token context length isn’t going to close it.
Of course it’s possible that the next evolutionary step will collapse our entire industry, but as things stand that’s more than just a matter of more parameters and longer context.
And on related note, if these systems do get to the point where they can legitimately replace a senior software engineer, then they can replace basically everyone. In other words: at that point it’s not just us who are in trouble.
I think a lot of people forget the talent this field has.
The people in this field are basically some of the
smartest people in the world. The smartest. Many would-be mathematicians, physicists, engineers and doctors have gone into CS and have been for decades. That's why it's funny when people say these people are idiots because chances are they're way smarter than them. These people have thought out that this is an overreaction and are sticking around, but Joe Coli or Andrew Redditor knows better right?
When people say it'll replace
90% of the engineers, I don't think they exactly understand how much brainpower that is
There's a reason why engineers compared to other roles have been targeted the least when it comes to layoffs, you think that'll change in the future?
You also got to imagine how many smart people even 10% of that number is is. Many people will create another lane from this thing if they get replaced, you can 100% count on that.
The funny thing is many of the experts and lead researchers on A.I say it won't even get to that level (if it ever does) until maybe 30 years from now, at which point many of us won't even be around.
I'm banking on CS now more than ever to be honest.