Roster Reload: Bulls must offer max for Butler
2014-15 record: 50-32
Pythagorean record: 49-33
Offensive Rating: 104.7 (10th)
Defensive Rating: 101.1 (11th)
Under Contract for 2015-16
Player Salary RPM WARP
Pau Gasol $7,448,760 2.0 12.4
Nikola Mirotic $5,543,725 2.4 6.6
Joakim Noah $13,900,000 1.6 4.3
Taj Gibson $8,500,000 -0.4 2.5
Derrick Rose $20,093,064 0.1 2.1
Tony Snell $1,535,880 -0.8 0.0
Cameron Bairstow $845,059 -2.2 -0.3
Doug McDermott $2,380,440 -5.8 -1.0
Possible Free Agents
Player Type RPM WARP
Jimmy Butler Restricted 3.5 11.1
Aaron Brooks Unrestricted -0.4 2.3
Mike Dunleavy Jr. Unrestricted 2.3 1.7
Nazr Mohammed Unrestricted -1.7 -0.3
E'Twaun Moore Non-guaranteed -3.1 -0.4
Kirk Hinrich Player option -3.1 -2.7
Draft Picks Own first-round pick (22nd)
Projected Cap Space Maximum: $3.7 million Minimum: $0 Likely: $0
What's Returning
The entire frontcourt, and there's good news and bad news there. Having added veteran
Pau Gasol and NBA rookie
Nikola Mirotic to a group that already included
Taj Gibson and
Joakim Noah, Chicago boasted the deepest frontcourt in the NBA. However, there was a disconnect between playing time and performance among this group.
Coach Tom Thibodeau stuck with Gasol and Noah as starters despite ample evidence they weren't a good pairing. The Bulls outscored opponents by 2.8 points per 100 possessions with them on the court together, per NBA.com/Stats, second-worst of the six possible Chicago frontcourt duos. The best three all included Mirotic, but he played the fewest minutes of the four players despite spending time at small forward, where he was far less effective. (The Bulls were plus-0.1 per 100 possessions with Mirotic at small forward, as compared to plus-7.7 when he played power forward.)
Chicago can hope for better health from Noah, who never completely got back to 100 percent after offseason knee surgery and was a shell of himself in the playoffs, and Gibson too. But the Bulls must change how they view their frontcourt rotation to maximize the return on the immense talent they boast.
While all four frontcourt players are under contract, the only perimeter starter signed for 2015-16 is point guard
Derrick Rose. After playing only 10 games combined in 2012-13 and 2013-14, Rose was healthy for 51 games during the regular season and Chicago's entire playoff run. However, Rose remained inconsistent, in part because
he tended to perform better with more rest.
Free Agents
After emerging as the Bulls' leading scorer and earning Most Improved Player honors,
Jimmy Butler hits restricted free agency certain to get an offer for the maximum salary. Look for Chicago to offer Butler a maximum qualifying offer, giving him a five-year max deal if he wants it and forcing other teams to offer a minimum of three guaranteed years on an offer sheet rather than the usual two. Whether they match an offer or sign Butler outright, expect the Bulls to retain him. Fellow wing starter
Mike Dunleavy is an unrestricted free agent. Dunleavy will be 35 in September, so Chicago needs to figure out a long-term replacement, but he remains an efficient role player. Dunleavy shot 40.7 percent from 3-point range this season.
Backup point guard
Aaron Brooks, who started 21 games in Rose's absence, could command a raise on the one-year contract he signed for the veteran's minimum. Chicago's other primary reserve guard, veteran
Kirk Hinrich, has a player option for $2.9 million that he is unlikely to beat on the open market.
Biggest Need: Steals
Despite holding opponents to the second-lowest effective field-goal percentage, the Bulls slipped to 11th in defensive rating in large part because of their difficulty forcing turnovers. Only the
Portland Trail Blazers were weaker in this regard, and Chicago was also 29th in steal rate. Butler was the only Bulls player with a steal rate of better than 2.0 percent.
Biggest Question: Who will be the Bulls' coach?
Even in the midst of Chicago's playoff run, rumors have swirled about
Thibodeau's future on the sidelines. Organizational tensions, including Thibodeau's tendency to ride his starters for extended minutes, could lead to a coaching change despite the phenomenal success the Bulls have enjoyed during his five seasons at the helm. If so, former Chicago shooting guard Fred Hoiberg could be a natural choice as a replacement. Hoiberg has run an NBA-style offense at his alma mater, Iowa State, and like
Golden State Warriorscoach Steve Kerr he would bring experience in a front office (he worked for the
Minnesota Timberwolves between retiring as a player and taking the Cyclones job) to the sidelines.
Ideal Offseason
Re-signing Butler and Dunleavy would push the Bulls into the luxury tax, something they've been reluctant to pay in the past. Gibson might be the casualty. I could see Chicago trading him for a wing to save money and free up playing time for Mirotic in the frontcourt. A swap for
Terrence Ross of the
Toronto Raptors, for example, would achieve both goals. Drafting Utah's
Delon Wright would give the Bulls more insurance for Rose's health, leaving them only needing to sign a veteran big man to fill out their roster.
by what I saw last night
