5 STATISTICS THAT HAVE DEFINED NEW YORK KNICKS' 2016-17 NBA SEASON
Kelly ScalettaFeatured ColumnistMarch 31, 2017
Kathy Willens/Associated Press
It's official. The
New York Knicks will miss the playoffs for the third straight season.
The
Miami Heat drubbed them in front of their hometown fans on Mar. 29 to seal the deal. Over the three full seasons since Phil Jackson took over as President of Basketball Operations, the Knicks are now 77-162, the fifth-worst winning percentage in the
NBA, according to
Basketball-Reference.com.
Sadly, that's just the beginning of things. Three of the four teams worse than them—the
Minnesota Timberwolves,
Philadelphia 76ers and
Los Angeles Lakers—are better situated for the future with a young core of talent that can take them forward.
But the Knicks have just one player, Kristaps Porzingis, whom they can build around. They also have more bad contracts (
Joakim Noah, Courtney Lee and Carmelo Anthony) that can get in the way of their rebuild. All of these contracts are on Jackson.
Here is a look at some of the key statistics that illustrate why the Knicks are so bad. They also provide some indication of what the Knickerbockers can address this offseason to start turning things around. I have them ranked according to urgency.
To keep things from being all negative, though, there is one positive stat to start things off.
1. Kristaps Porzingis Is a Unicorn: The 5/20/.300 Club
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Julie Jacobson/Associated Press
If you want one thing to hang your hat on, it's the fact that Porzingis is truly a unicorn.
Over his two-year career, Porzingis has a 5.0 block percentage, 24.4 usage percentage and a three-point attempt rate (the percentage of his field goals that are from deep) of .300. He is
the only player in NBA history with 5/20/.300 splits.
In an age where the two most attractive qualities in a big man are rim protection and court stretching, you don't get much prettier than that.
And Porzingis is
getting better, too, almost in spite of the Knicks' moves.
He improved in all five traditional box score stats this year. He also raised his field-goal percentage, three-point percentage, two-point percentage, effective field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage.
Still, a few of his advanced stats have dropped a bit. His player efficiency rating (PER) went from 17.7 to
17.4, and his win shares per 48 minutes sank from .102 to
.100, per Basketball-Reference.com. This is mostly because of a drop in usage, (from 24.6 to 24.3) and rebound percentage (14.0 to 11.9).
The upshot is that while KP has improved, the Knicks have not figured out how to make him the centerpiece of their rebuild. The sooner they do that, the sooner they will be on the path back to the postseason.
2. Steals Per Game: 7.0
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Michael Reaves/Getty Images
For a while, the narrative on steals is they were "overrated" because players have to shoot passing lanes and gamble to get them. If you lose that gamble, the other team scores.
But a few years ago,
Benjamin Morris of FiveThirtyEight.com, put that myth to rest. Here's what he had to say:
To illustrate this, I created a regression using each player's box score stats (points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals and turnovers) to predict how much teams would suffer when someone couldn't play. The results:
(He has a graphic showing the "predictive ability of box score stats" which indicates that steals are worth 9.1 points per game, blocks are worth 6.1, turnovers 5.4, assists 2.2 and rebounds 1.7).
Yes, this pretty much means a steal is "worth" as much as nine points. To put it more precisely: A marginal steal is weighted nine times more heavily when predicting a player's impact than a marginal point.
There is a logic to that. A steal not only ends an opponent's possession, it means there is a transition opportunity going the other way and a far more efficient scoring chance.
This is significant to the Knicks because they are 23rd in the NBA in steals per game with 7.0, according to
NBA.com. Largely as a result of that, they are also just 29th in transition points per possession with
1.02.
Easy points are the best points, and the Knicks aren't getting enough of those. Finding a ballhawk defender this offseason should be one of their top priorities.
3. Defensive Rebound Percentage: 73.9
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Cameron Browne/Getty Images
The next issue the Knicks have is also on the defensive end. If you've watched any amount of basketball, you've probably heard someone say, "the possession doesn't end until you secure the rebound."
If that's truly the case, the Knicks have a lot of possessions that don't end. Their
73.9 defensive rebound percentage is 1.2 percentage points worse than anyone in the league.
As a result of that, not surprisingly, they're also giving up
15.0 second-chance points, which is 0.5 more than the second-worst
Brooklyn Nets.
One of the reasons they brought in Joakim Noah was to help with rebounding, but that contract is starting to look like arguably the worst in the league. The 2013-14 Defensive Player of the Year is a shadow of his former self. While the Knicks' defensive rebounding percentage was a respectable 75.4 with Noah
on the court, he was only able to log 1,015 minutes for them before going down with a knee injury for the season.
That doesn't look like a problem that's going away, as it's been persisting for three years now. It doesn't look like he's ever going to be the player he once was again. The Knicks should consider him sunk cost and use the stretch provision on him.
With $55.6 million and three years left on his contract, per
Spotrac.com, that would come out to $7.9 million a year for seven years, but it would free up $10 million in cap space the first three years and expedite the rebuild.