Making our Pockets Fat again AGAIN PT 2 - Official Gambling Thread

[profound]

adding luca poclit +3.5 @ -120 for my last PFL bet. only putting up what i took off 1 of my 3 PFL wins tonight so i cant get hurt.

i dont know him, i just know logan storley was absolutely brutalized 9 short weeks ago and even though luca aint a striker, logan's brain is not optimal yet. he is rushing back in trying to cleanse himself of the nasty L.

they both want to grapple, and luca has five different kinds of chokes on his resume. i dont see that all the time and his level of comp is alright so, good enough for me.

 

[profound]

logan had more control time but luca had mount and landed shots plus had a face crank on, i give him the round and it should seal things if it goes to decision but i didnt know logan is a hometown guy so luca might need to do more.

edit big john gave the round to luca as well, lets see

edit, 2 judges score it 29-28, 1 judge scores it 30-27....L

better to lose by getting finished than get fukked on the spread by a judge who knows the rounds are too important to give one early to the ''wrong'' guy

 

[J Money]

im gonna watch later and get my reads.

i like silva but he looked bad at official weigh ins, and missed...will see at ceremonials, i still wanna back him.

leaning gomez but gotta think, she's on her last leg here.

couldnt believe ortega, he kinda shows his hand here. but that thinking dont always work cuz look at gastelum last week. still this is different and i wont change my mind on lopes.

i got PFL on right now. went light because i hate that it takes away from the stuff im doing in baseball. i couldnt fire on my parlay but did hit tyler diamond +140 in the first fight. again very light, but then i got carvalho/kamaka over 2.5, just because, pedro's fights usually go under, but kai is a decision guy. only way that dont hit imo is pedro gets the big upset with an early finish.

then i got shamil musaev +140. i saw him fight a couple months back and took a flier on him as a big dog and he beat the breaks off logan storley. russian he's fighting is undefeated too and looks roided as fukk so i dont like it too much but since i got in-card money i aint too exposed.

After giving it some thought, watching the mma picks online etc I think this is what I'm gonna go with

Andre filli ML
Ian Garry ML (not 100% confident but he's the younger man and has the tools to win. LucrativeMMA said Garry is probably the best opponent MVP has ever faced and I might agree with that)
Bueno Silva v Chiasson O1.5
Waterson-Gomes v Robertson O1.5 (I wanted to take Michelle as she will be the better striker but could see her getting taken down and struggling too)
Diego Lopes ML

Some dogs are definitely gonna win tonight so gonna have to try catch them live.

 

[profound]

After giving it some thought, watching the mma picks online etc I think this is what I'm gonna go with

Andre filli ML
Ian Garry ML (not 100% confident but he's the younger man and has the tools to win. LucrativeMMA said Garry is probably the best opponent MVP has ever faced and I might agree with that)
Bueno Silva v Chiasson O1.5
Waterson-Gomes v Robertson O1.5 (I wanted to take Michelle as she will be the better striker but could see her getting taken down and struggling too)
Diego Lopes ML

Some dogs are definitely gonna win tonight so gonna have to try catch them live.

MVP said if he was fighting garry in bellator, he'd be accused of fighting another can, i agree.

even though it pollutes my thinking and i shouldn't do it, i like making my rounds with the prediction people, strictly for PPVs, just absorbing the media. so i see everyone there is on garry.

lucrativeMMA lost some 9 units last night. one twitter user said he either loses a lot or wins a little. never in my betting years have i done that horribly. ive done bad and put too much on certain fights and too little on others, but ive never been able to go down the list with nothing but L's. so that guy barely looks like he belongs doing shyt like that.

take it better from a guy like wonderboy thompson, who said garry is not on MVPs level and could get knocked out.

but its a fight and MVPs age hurts him. its one of my least favorite fights though so i wont have a huge stake if i pull the trigger.

some dogs are definitely going to win. on live the value might dissipate.

i didnt like jean silva at ceremonials. i like the value on cub, same with the guy fighting ricky simon, same with carlos hernandez. but focusing more on MLB and MMA is just an addiction to feed. after PFL last night (lost that co main but took fight ends inside distance on main +170 and hit) i figured i should treat UFC like PFL and keep the amounts down because UFC has worse judging and reffing.

and let me work this jiri fight in reverse. if he loses, the narrative is none other than: he allows himself to get hit too much. if it was about money, those are some shytty odds considering alex got the W and looked so dominant vs hill. but again thats the oddsmakers being careful. so we'll see, im trying to work things out now.

 

[profound]

@J Money baseball is smacking today. i hit the white sox NRFI (less juice than YRFI), gonna hit reds +164, just hit pirates YRFI +135 and currently got other things in good shape. so im gonna let it go on this card, but still only playing partial units to start, im talking like fifth units at the very least/thirds at the most.

i started on the first 2 dogs of the card, i got +205 and +360.

bout to make some parlays too, not trying to focus only on safe things, gonna make some crazy things too. will also make a 2-leg or two with some favorites as well but there aint many i like.

 

[profound]

i started on the first 2 dogs of the card, i got +205 and +360.

first one down

ppv dogs

some dogs are definitely going to win. on live the value might dissipate.

@J Money perfect example is this first fight. part way through the 1st i got to throw more on vinicius at +100. after the 1st he was -195 and i was essentially locked out of making any real money on him.

 

[J Money]

first one down

ppv dogs



@J Money perfect example is this first fight. part way through the 1st i got to throw more on vinicius at +100. after the 1st he was -195 and i was essentially locked out of making any real money on him.

Yeah I limed vinicious ever since that flying knee KO earlier in the year, thought his opponent would lay and prey but he got the job done

 

[profound]

now before the vinicius fight i threw some down on his spread @ +100, gonna do the same here with carlos spread +165

 

[profound]

carlos spread +165

next got buday in a parlay

 

[profound]

reminder now that i have more experience with this, anyone that dont already have action of their own and want some winners, go on twitter and sign up for All In One Cappers telegram.

u will get dozens of plays per day but only pay attention to Hammering Hank and New WNBA Source.

hank is consistent and makes 10+ units a day.

WNBA source is 17-2.

 

[FireFatMike]

reminder now that i have more experience with this, anyone that dont already have action of their own and want some winners, go on twitter and sign up for All In One Cappers telegram.

u will get dozens of plays per day but only pay attention to Hammering Hank and New WNBA Source.

hank is consistent and makes 10+ units a day.

WNBA source is 17-2.

I took the Phillies ml, his 5u play. I follow Cody Brown bets, as well, on twitter.

 

[profound]

I took the Phillies ml, his 5u play. I follow Cody Brown bets, as well, on twitter.

just looked at brown. he moves kinda slow and the info is relevant for beginners but if not then u already know what to expect with strikeouts and the rest. its good free plays regardless i know. dany mclain is similar. he does a lot of F5 totals and just off his stuff i got to starting F3 totals and have done really well with them. austinprops is another one, is usually successful but for all these free guys i like to have my own basis for going along because baseball can be punishing when u strictly go off trends. and a lot of those lines at -130 and such make it hard to profit because a -130 means the book already did the legwork these free (non leaked) cappers offer, minus the writeup, but we know if it were that easy we'd be cashing our -130's everyday.

hank did alright but didnt get that much because he had too much juice. i guess its good with that many dogs hitting he had 2 favorites and made it out alive. he's good with asian baseball too, i dont mess with it too much but i'll look at what he cooks up for the morning because i did hit his last two.

 

[J Money]

just looked at brown. he moves kinda slow and the info is relevant for beginners but if not then u already know what to expect with strikeouts and the rest. its good free plays regardless i know. dany mclain is similar. he does a lot of F5 totals and just off his stuff i got to starting F3 totals and have done really well with them. austinprops is another one, is usually successful but for all these free guys i like to have my own basis for going along because baseball can be punishing when u strictly go off trends. and a lot of those lines at -130 and such make it hard to profit because a -130 means the book already did the legwork these free (non leaked) cappers offer, minus the writeup, but we know if it were that easy we'd be cashing our -130's everyday.

hank did alright but didnt get that much because he had too much juice. i guess its good with that many dogs hitting he had 2 favorites and made it out alive. he's good with asian baseball too, i dont mess with it too much but i'll look at what he cooks up for the morning because i did hit his last two.

Any interest In this fight night card breh?

I might not actually watch it tbh but there's few on the card I like

Petroski
Jean silva
Pizinibbio
Rose
Brudnage v Al hassan U2.5

 

[profound]

Any interest In this fight night card breh?

I might not actually watch it tbh but there's few on the card I like

Petroski
Jean silva
Pizinibbio
Rose
Brudnage v Al hassan U2.5

im too biased for cortez., some of my biggest bets in MMA have been on her, going way back to contender. i thought ribas banked a round or two from rose, that is not dominance anymore, amanda dont really have fight in her like that. tracy does. but i didnt see how they sized up, and i know tracy is short notice. and i know she didnt look great on the scale, and dont really like that crying stuff. i can see either winner blowing the other out honestly. or tracy getting rounds of her own at least.

i saw a good parlay with two favs, i forget who they are at the moment cuz i just stepped in but i'll let u know. it was around -115 which i love for a confident 2 leg, then i saw i could add charles johnson or da'mon blackshear on the spread to make it around +200. motel jackson gets a lot of favorable fights and is always -300, but he aint here, and thats because this aint favorable. he hasn't done much in his 6 years but i know the things that can give him problems is something da'mon will go for.

 

[profound]

^ edit didnt mean to send early, petriski looked good because he's a better version of fremd, who's the lowest form of lay and prayer.

i agree with ponz, who looked ready to fight (saw a quick weigh in highlight but no face offs yet). brundage fight under is as close to guarantee as can be, i dont know the odds. no opinion on silva yet.