It's a tough call. One would think because of Manchin's name he could run as an independent and win. The reality though is that the WV electorate is not like Alaska or Maine. Manchin could never run in a republican primary because he's not conservative enough. (i.e Alaska has an Independent Governor who is really a republican; Maine has an Independent Senator who was also a governor like Manchin.)People say 50 state strategy but... if he were an independent who occasionally voted with the democrats would that be a difference?
I mean I really don't care he's WV's senator not mine, but does he really need party ID at this point? I feel he'd draw enough from both sides to win, albeit by a closer margin.
The real question is what do Manchin voters actually want? That's the crux of the issue I have with the "red state Democrats have to do what they have to do" mantra. Is that the reality on the ground or are they just using that as a crutch to be d bag politicians?
Folks don't realize that these centrist feed into conservative lies by playing the role as the "grown person in the room". Because the real grown-ups would tell you straight up that Kavanaugh is a no without the FBI investigation. The real grown-ups don't need an FBI report to tell you that the White House limiting the scope to certain people, or McConnell forcing a vote this week is the wrong thing to do.
But people like Manchin, Collins, and Murkowski hedge their bets and secure their jobs by playing the crazies against the desperate.