If there was a button that would give you $1,000 each time you push it with a 1% chance of dying

[ISHIDA]

Jesus people are actually legit retards on this board

 

[fantabolous]

All right Ill ask you

If this existed and a person stood there and pressed it 500 times and never died

Then the second person did it a million times and never died

What about that would make you say the chances are 1 in 100?

You see. You'd have to see one person make it to 75. One make it to 125. One make it to 15. You watch 50 people do it and you do the math

If it comes out to .. 1/100 average then you say its one percent

1 out of a million is not one percent

Tell me where I am wrong here

Here you're not necessarily wrong, but your error is kinda bad causal fallacy.

The experimental outcome doesn't change the theoretical probability. Proving the 1% chance is irrelevant. The chance of death is given at 1%; you can't arbitrarily change/dispute that because it's literally the provided premise.

Your original arguments were wrong because you were discussing probability WITHOUT replacement where the initial premise requires use of probability WITH replacement

 

[Asicz]

If there is a 1 percent chance of an event occurring, how likely is it for that even to occur with each attempt? - Quora


Actual statistician and PHDs answer the exact question

 

[Family Man]

If there is a 1 percent chance of an event occurring, how likely is it for that even to occur with each attempt? - Quora


Actual statistician and PHDs answer the exact question

Them nikkas talking in circles over there. WTF is the answer is what I want to know. I'm not interested in any formulas. Tell me the damn answer or STFU.

 

[You Win Perfect]

The most you could possibly get is $99K before certain death

And you everything after $50K is more likely than not to kill your ass

You gotta be the brokest, least responsible person to entertain something like this

One million per press is probably a better set up. At least then you're risking it all for something that can change the lives of those you leave behind

You’re assuming it’s accumulative; which makes no sense because that’s not how percentage chances work.

It’s 1% every time you press the button no matter how many times you press it.
Y’all so quick to type a response

 

[R.E.N. Spells Ren]

The 99% resets every try

And what I said doesn’t contradict that.

 

[Ghost Utmost]

Breh lets make this really simple, using the original analogy you tried to pass off.

Lets say there are an infinite amount of jars, each of them filled with 100 marbles exactly, 99 of them green, 1 of them orange. This would mean for each individual jar, there would be a 1% chance that you'd pull out an orange marble.

The question in the OP, using this example, is measuring how comfortable a person would be at (blindly) pulling a random marble out of each jar, where they receive $1,000 for each green, and get a bullet in the head if they pull an orange one.

What does that have to with the fact that you can only do that about 100 times before you lose. At most.

That is what all this is about

People keep saying that one.percent chance could mean one million wins and no losses.

Which it cannot. I understand that theoretically you can toss a coin 100 times and get heads every time. I will take that bet for any amount of money that no one reading this can actually flip 100 heads in a row. Cause while its "possible" I guarantee you can't do it

 

[Ghost Utmost]

IF YOU FLIP A COIN, YOU HAVE A 50% CHANCE FOR EITHER SIDE. NO MATTER HOW MANY TIMES YOU FLIP AND THE OUTCOMES, YOU ALWAYS HAVE A 50% CHANCE.

Get a coin

See If you can get something besides half heads and half tails. 100 flips. Do it for real and post the results

 

[MR. SNIFLES]

Get a coin

See If you can get something besides half heads and half tails. 100 flips. Do it for real and post the results

DOESN'T CHANGE THE FACT THAT EACH FLIP HAS NO EFFECT ON THE NEXT.

 

[Ghost Utmost]

Even tho your math is wrong, your logic is correct: it’s not worth it.

As many have explained, you get 99% chance at $1k each time. The formula is simple: chance of getting x thousand dollars is (0.99)^x.

So the max isn’t $99k; you actually have ~37% chance of getting $99k. Since (0.99)^99~=0.37

200k ~= 13% chance (0.99^200)
500k ~= 0.67% chance (0.99^500)

Given that the alternative result is death, it makes no sense to participate in this unless you have a realistic chance at life changing money. In this game, your chances of getting that high are extremely low.

Y'all keep pushing the absolute limits of what is possible.

I am talking functional

You'd really begin the process thinking you can push the button 200 times?

No you wouldn't so stop

 

[Ghost Utmost]

if condoms protect you from pregnancies 99% of the time, that doesn't mean the 100th time you smash a girl with a condom she's getting pregnant.

Except that's EXACTLY what it means

On average though

So if one guy can do it 130 times before he loses that doesn't mean that you can too. For you it may even be 75 tries until you crap out

 

[Ghost Utmost]

That's not how it works.

Each time you push the button, there is a 1% chance that you will die. To view it simpler, flipping a coins 10 times does not mean there will ever be a greater chance than 50% of getting tails for each coin flip.

Until you pull out a coin and flip it 10 times

Do it

For real

Post results

 

[AQz]

The most you could possibly get is $99K before certain death

And you everything after $50K is more likely than not to kill your ass

You gotta be the brokest, least responsible person to entertain something like this

One million per press is probably a better set up. At least then you're risking it all for something that can change the lives of those you leave behind

depends. If it’s similar to say the lotto. Your odds would be per press/play so technically you could get unlimited money.

I’d probably mess around and die first press so I’m good.

 

[R.E.N. Spells Ren]

Y'all keep pushing the absolute limits of what is possible.

I am talking functional

You'd really begin the process thinking you can push the button 200 times?

No you wouldn't so stop

I’m not sure what you mean by “absolute limits”. .

I’m talking about probability. You have a 13% chance of making $200k and surviving by pushing the button 200 times. You have an 87% chance of dying before ever reaching that 200th push. Obviously, your chance of survival is really low, but it’s not zero.

 

[Ghost Utmost]

Here you're not necessarily wrong, but your error is kinda bad causal fallacy.

The experimental outcome doesn't change the theoretical probability. Proving the 1% chance is irrelevant. The chance of death is given at 1%; you can't arbitrarily change/dispute that because it's literally the provided premise.

Your original arguments were wrong because you were discussing probability WITHOUT replacement where the initial premise requires use of probability WITH replacement

So in probability with replacement you get one million rolls before you lose?

Y'all keep talking about a theoretical possibility that may happen once in a trillion sequences

I was taking about you die if you get this wrong

So you're telling me a computer RNG set to 1 out of 100 will actually give you something besides 1 out of 100

Why would that be called 1 out of 100 of you truly had no way to predict how many rolls before a loss. On average.

Simple question.

Probability WITH replacement means you WILL NOT get an average of 1 loss per 100 rolls