If there was a button that would give you $1,000 each time you push it with a 1% chance of dying

[Originalman]

Hey OP did you get this idea from that 80s twilight zone episode with the same premise.

 

[Houston911]

Zero times

 

[Monsanto]

I really hope some of you aren't accountants, my word.

 

[Absolut]

What is going on with the struggle math in here

 

[BillCosbyAteMyHomework]

One of the best threads I’ve read in awhile

 

[Tommy Knocks]

thats around every time you get in a car.

pushing that bytch 100 times

 

[Conan]

did yall nikkas skip math class?

nikka yes! That's why they rant against analytics in sports

 

[The Exchanges]

Id probably hit it once

 

[Conan]

All right Ill ask you

If this existed and a person stood there and pressed it 500 times and never died

Then the second person did it a million times and never died

What about that would make you say the chances are 1 in 100?

You see. You'd have to see one person make it to 75. One make it to 125. One make it to 15. You watch 50 people do it and you do the math

If it comes out to .. 1/100 average then you say its one percent

1 out of a million is not one percent

Tell me where I am wrong here

You do have a point here... This is now getting into the realm of bayesian statistics where we use our experiences to update probabilities.

For this example though, assuming that said person has an equal chance of picking any marble, even without studying what happens, I would expect if a million people went through with this, the average number of marbles picked until death would be 100.

 

[JoseLuisGotcha]

I came for the life or death scenario and stayed for the math

 

[3rdWorld]

Ive seen dark days, but have never been that broke before..

The sort of person to press the button is the sort to run in and rob a liquor store at gun point.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

A 1% risk of death is really fukking high. The vast majority of people don't even do something that has a 1% risk of death more than maybe once a decade tops.

If you really need $1000 you can come up with some other sketchy way to do it that's still less risky than that.

 

[Silkk]

Even tho your math is wrong, your logic is correct: it’s not worth it.

As many have explained, you get 99% chance at $1k each time. The formula is simple: chance of getting x thousand dollars is (0.99)^x.

So the max isn’t $99k; you actually have ~37% chance of getting $99k. Since (0.99)^99~=0.37

200k ~= 13% chance (0.99^200)
500k ~= 0.67% chance (0.99^500)

Given that the alternative result is death, it makes no sense to participate in this unless you have a realistic chance at life changing money. In this game, your chances of getting that high are extremely low.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Damn near anyone with a normal brain would end up not pushing the thing at all. The better question is how high the money would have to go before you did push it.

This would make an intense game show.

Ten contestants on stage behind ten podiums, each with a big-ass button.

Host stands at a table and lays $1000 stacks on the table, one at a time.

The stacks keeps growing until one of the ten contestants risks it all and pushes the button.

99 shows out of 100, the button is safe and they win all the money on the table.

1 show out of 100, the button immediately electrocutes the eager contestant to death.

That shyt would get crazy ratings.

They probably already have it in Japan.

 

[num123]

did you really just type this shyt?......you can flip a quarter an INFINITE amount of times and get tails every time?.....

Improbable? Yes. Impossible? No.