This is my analysis of what’s happening between Somalia and Ethiopia.
Abiy is either a one in a couple centuries level conqueror like Genghis Khan or he is extremely egomaniacal and incompetent.
The first position is based on the unknown. Does Abiy have some super plan that involves quickly conquering the HOA? Is Abiy really the 7th Emperor like his mama said? His politics is so insane and unpredictable. However, this might be because he’s playing 4d chess while we’re playing snakes and ladders.
The 2nd position is the more likely one. I believe he bit off more than he can chew. I honestly think that he was just using Somaliland to strong arm Somalia into giving him a port, but he didn’t expect the insane backlash. HSM was forced by the population into taking a strong posture against this violation. This man united Somalis which is an extremely rare thing to do. Hell, he went even further. Abiy’s insane politics lead to Hell freezing over. For the first time in history, Somalis and Amharas are staunchly supporting each other .
Abiy’s Ethiopia is on the brink of collapse, yet he haphazardly initiated this dispute. Ethiopia defaulted on one of its loans and is about to face a famine as bad the one in the 1980s in both the Amhara and Tigray regions. OLA shut down most of the highways in Oromia a couple of days ago showing how much on the ground support they have. Fano have been assassinating many PP leaders in their region to the point the Amhara region has become kind of ungovernable, and they have been recapturing cities (but ENDF will take them back). His blatant disregard for international norms has even made Ethiopia’s most ardent allies like Kenya stay silent instead of supporting Ethiopia. I can’t even understand how he can threaten Eritrea’s independence by calling them a mistake in the same week he violated Somalia’s sovereignty. It’s like he’s asking for a 2-front war. Abiy has been losing international support rapidly to the point he’s slowly turning Ethiopia into a pariah state. He supports the genocide in Sudan, did a genocide in Tigray, is fighting multiple insurgencies while carrying out multiple human rights violations, and is now threatening most of his neighbors.
All in all, I think this deal will fizzle out. It will not lead to anything because he bit off more than he can chew. I think his government official telling the journalist that they will consider recognizing SL after they build a port and navy base is a way to make SL cancel the deal and they don’t look like they backed out to their constituents.
One thing I will add is that it is imperative for Somalis to keep pressuring HSM. We shouldn't be complacent and this event should lead to Somalia's military quickly developing into one that can defend its territorial borders in the next 2 years or so.
" dismantle their navy and go back to being landlocked
