Bernie Madoff
Banned
Props.
for the betters out here, the post your picks thread
- Thread starter NoMoreWhiteWoman2020
- Start date
We need to really look into this strategy.
Betting on heavy favorites when their down, I was thinking about this when @ryderldb asked what the odds were in the Warriors game when they were down. I was paying attention to the OKC/Sacramento game and they were down BIG in the first. This also happened in the Colorado State/Colorado game, Utah/Boise State game, UC Santa Barbara/ Cal game. Pistons/Miami game. Warriors/Sacremento game......Guess who won an OVERWHLEMING majority of those games the Favorite [Miami was the only one not to win]. There's a reason why bad teams are bad, they can't put teams away. No lead is safe with them. Think about it A bad team is going to have some stretch in the game where they play bad [because they're bad
]. Whether it happens in the 1st quarter or the 4th odds are its going to happen. The only difference is the odds are MORE in our favor on the chalk if they play well early and decide to play bad later rather than playing bad early on. 
Bernie Madoff
Banned
Alot of teams never come back breh..
Bernie Madoff
Banned
This is true but is it enough to even out the odds of when you do hit...Let's say you took the warriors +1500 when they were down. That means you would have to miss the next 15 of these type of situations in order to lose all your gains. Basically saying would you give a top playoff team a greater than 7% chance of coming back on a non-playoff team when their down. It also opens up some great no lose/scenarios. When the warriors were coming back you could have hedged +375 on the Raptors...then no matter who won, you'd come out positive.
Bernie Madoff
Banned
You can go 0-15 down 27
Bernie Madoff
Banned
Value is in the parlays 
on the underdogs.
on the underdogs.
<<TheStandard>>
I Am A God
Wouldn't that have to do with there being less handle on NBA & NCAAB games? Books would be setting themselves up to get destroyed if they didn't put down limits, especially on College Basketball where the majority of it is sharp money. The general public isn't betting on some of these random as college basketball games in November & December. That's just what I'm thinking, but why do you think there's a Limit on those sports? Specifically NBA
Bernie Madoff
Banned
You just made my point.
Yea you can but you don't only have to look at that extreme scenario.
Look at todays NBA games:
76ers as the home favorites went down in the first to the Magic they still won
Nuggets as the road favorites went down in the first to the Celtics they still won
Heat as home favs went down to the Pistons lost
Grizzlies as home favs went down in the 2nd to the Pistons they won
Mavs homes favs went down in the second to the Bobcats they won
Thunder road faves went down in the 1st to the kings and they won
Warriors home faves went down in the first and they won
Im not saying this happens all the time and today could have been an anomaly but its definitely something to look at and pay attention to see if there's something we can exploit.
Bernie Madoff
Banned
Only like 3 teams In history have come back 27 points in nba history
that could explain the +1500 oddsBut I didn't mean to only focus on that extreme scenario. The reason why we don't like betting on chalk before games is because the value really isn't there.For example OKC had -460 odds to win, not worth it. But what were those odds after the first when they were down 10-12? Dallas was -375 before the game, what were their odds at half when they were down 3. Memphis pregame was -145...what were the odds at half when they were down 8. Im not saying this is some genius strategy that will work but it would be interesting to see what the odds were when these were down and does it give us greater value overall.
Iowa cost me my parlay SCU St
Raptors didn't even cover after leading by 27 pathetic
Raptors didn't even cover after leading by 27 pathetic
