Roster Reload: Chicago Bulls
The Bulls really had no business winning 48 games, or winning the No. 4 seed in a playoff bracket. Three of the team's top four players entering the season -- in terms of salary -- were gone by the beginning of the campaign.
Carlos Boozer was there in body, but not so much in production, while
Derrick Rose watched Chicago's quick postseason exit in street clothes and
Luol Deng, who was traded at midseason, could only sit at home planning his free-agent strategy. The lack of star power was apparent as Chicago fell swiftly to the
Washington Wizards.
With
Joakim Noah leading the charge, the Bulls went into postseason mode in early February and emerged as the team that no one supposedly wanted to play. But the Wizards were younger, faster and more energetic, underscoring that if Tom Thibodeau's band of overachievers is going to become more than a feel-good story, it has to up the ante in terms of talent. Chicago's two highest-paid players -- Rose and Boozer -- combined for $32.9 million in salary, and minus-1.4 WARP. That the team overcame that inversion of the production-to-payroll pyramid was amazing, but this is the summer Chicago can get itself re-aligned, and return to the title-contending status the Bulls held when Thibodeau took over the team in 2010.
2014-15 baseline (if all current players returned): 50.2 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's
ATH system)
I. Main assets
Elhassan: Any discussion about Chicago's core begins and ends with Rose: If you consider him to be a keystone, there are legitimate concerns about his ability to remain healthy and how he'll bounce back from a second knee injury. If you think the Bulls should move on from him, there's the question of the three years of more than $60 million guaranteed remaining on the books. Beyond Rose, the defensive duo Noah and
Taj Gibson are on cap-friendly deals and are in the relative primes of their careers (you could argue Gibson still has room for growth as an offensive option), while
Jimmy Butler is starting to blossom (although they'll have to come to a decision soon on whether to extend him this summer or risk letting him go to restricted free agency next year).
Doolittle: Assuming Rose gets back on the floor, which we learned this season is not something you can take for granted, the Bulls don't really have the option to remain status quo. Rose's return will in itself shake things up, and accounts for the 50-win baseline for a team with a 2013-14 point differential of a 47-win team, but a number of old players. The Bulls are one of the few teams that still have the amnesty option in their tool kit, and after this postseason, you have to figure they'll use it on Boozer, as has long been assumed. Doing so opens up several avenues for making over the roster this summer. They'll likely try to figure out how to bring prized European stash
Nikola Mirotic over, but it's far from a no-brainer they'll be able to do so. Chicago also has two top-20 picks in the draft, and coveted young players on team-friendly contracts like Butler, Gibson and even Noah, if you want to get crazy. Chicago has no shortage of options as the offseason dawns.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: With the salary cap expected to jump to $63 million (and the luxury tax to $77 million), the Bulls will have more flexibility to enhance their roster, provided they are willing to seek an amnesty of Boozer to erase his cap hit (a big assumption for the notoriously thrifty Bulls ownership). Going after
Carmelo Anthony in free agency won't come cheap, despite his intimations that he'll accept a pay cut to go to a winning situation. Anthony answers the question of having a go-to scorer, something Chicago has lacked in Rose's absence. Of course, they'd also be opening themselves to the same type of isolation offense that has bedeviled the
New York Knicks (albeit with a much better defense), not to mention the Knicks' chances of retaining Anthony with the charm of Phil Jackson's triangle.
Another possibility that has been discussed is the signing of 2011 draft pick Mirotic from Spain. Because it's been three years since he's been drafted, the Bulls would be able to sign him to a deal larger than the rookie scale prescribed to his draft slot. Mirotic is a skilled, scoring stretch big, and again gives Chicago some scoring punch, albeit not with the certainty that Anthony brings.
Other free agent targets that would fit the Bulls' need for scoring punch include
Eric Bledsoe,
Lance Stephenson and
Rudy Gay, all of whom would come at a less expensive price tag than Anthony, but pricier than Mirotic.
Doolittle: Option No. 1, in my opinion, is a pursuit of Anthony through free agency. A starting five of Noah, Rose, Butler, Anthony and Gibson would be one of the most well-balanced and dynamic units in the league, and it would be ready to win now. The catch is that do so, the Bulls would probably have to forgo pursuit of Mirotic, as they'd need to clear his cap hold to create room for Anthony. Also, as colleague Larry c00n has outlined, most trade scenarios involving Anthony would disrupt Chicago's existing core. To land him, the Bulls would have to hope that Anthony indeed is willing to make major salary concessions in order to pursue a championship.
Option No. 2 is to bring over Mirotic. You might be able to do that by staying over the cap, which would allow them to use a full mid-level exception for the Croatian big man. Then you'd try to trade Boozer's expiring deal to bring back a wing scorer to play the 3. (Not an easy option.) You can also amnesty Boozer, create as much cap space as possible, sign Mirotic and use the remaining room to get that aforementioned wing scorer. Strangely enough, Deng could prove to be the best alternative in that scenario. For me, the ideal outcome is to dangle a ring chase in front of Anthony, give him an all allowable contract options, and hope he'll accept being massively underpaid.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: As I mentioned earlier, the decision to amnesty Boozer sounds like a slam dunk on paper, but is not as straight forward for the Bulls. Paying almost $17 million for Boozer to play for someone else might be a tough sell to the owner, especially considering the Bulls would be expecting to spend more than that in replacement players (even though those players would make Chicago better). An alternate solution would be to try to package some of the picks owed to the Bulls (2014 first from Charlotte, protected future firsts from Cleveland and Sacramento) with Boozer's deal to entice an under-the-cap team to swallow his deal.
Doolittle: The Bulls have perhaps the widest range of possibilities of any team entering the summer because of the uncertainty surrounding Rose's long-term durability and productivity. Since he hasn't played effectively in the regular season in more than two years, the uncertainty could scare away a marquee free agent like Anthony. That would leave the Bulls hoping that Mirotic has a Nowitzki-like impact, or else Chicago would be at a deficit in terms of elite-level talent compared with the current super powers of the league.