Elizabeth Warren HQ: She's Got A Plan!

[Loose]

Warren got back up like Tyson fury round 12

 

[Json]

That’s tricky one for her...maybe Steyer not being on stage helps her to pull some of his “support” but Biden and sanders are so strong there and I think being an open primary, even fukkboi Pete had gone up.

fukk America for real

Biden hasn’t performed his polling yet, so I doubt he’s where most people think.

I don’t know about Steyer.

Bernie hasn’t had a rally in SC as I remember so I don’t think he’s as solid there as he wants others to believe. He probably is hoping Biden falls and he defacto wins.

Black voters tripped him up last time

 

[King Kreole]

that's my damn candidate, yall

 

[wire28]

that's my damn candidate, yall

One of the biggest distinctions between her and Bernard. Even how climate change is disproportionately affecting minority communities

Oh well, Bernie will just be status quo old white men who don’t care about black people and get half of what they promise done when theyre actually in office if he wins.

 

[Pressure]

Had my whole team watching that Liz opening Salvo.

Walked back down the aisle saw some of them watching the debate off the strength.

 

[Loose]

One of the biggest distinctions between her and Bernard. Even how climate change is disproportionately affecting minority communities

Oh well, Bernie will just be status quo old white men who don’t care about black people and get half of what they promise done when theyre actually in office if he wins.

Bernie legit refuses to discuss anything about black inequality, dude literally pivots to his best but all inequality matters technique

 

[chico25]

One of the biggest distinctions between her and Bernard. Even how climate change is disproportionately affecting minority communities

Oh well, Bernie will just be status quo old white men who don’t care about black people and get half of what they promise done when theyre actually in office if he wins.

Bernie legit refuses to discuss anything about black inequality, dude literally pivots to his best but all inequality matters technique

Bernie tried to make the bolded point in a debate and got cut off and accused of dodging a question about race.

 

[wire28]

Bernie tried to make the bolded point in a debate and got cut off and accused of dodging a question about race.

i guess i missed the numerous times he was cut off last night

one makes it a point to bring it up over and over again, the other brings it up when asked. its okay breh, you can still like the guy (which is obvious)

 

[Silky Johnson]

 

[intra vires]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but around 70k ballots have already been cast in Nevada due to early voting. For perspective, around 85k ballots were cast in Nevada in total in 2016. So even if turnout is up expotentially, it's likely too late for last nights performance to help her there.

Hoping for some Bill Clinton-esque comeback kid story seems as misguided as Bernie Bros and their Bernie math in 2016.

However, I would strongly recommend just voting for the candidate you want to win and/or have power in the event of a contested convention. If we end up with no one actually gaining momentum, who controls the bargaining chips at the convention will matter a la a multiparty system that so many seem to desire.

To quote a previous candidate whose only hope was winning via a contested convention:

Well, I – you know, I don’t want to speculate about the future and I think there are other factors involved. I think it is probably the case that the candidate who has the most pledged delegates is going to be the candidate, but there are other factors.

-- Bernie Sanders, 2016​

May "other factors" grant us victory.

 

[Pressure]

It's Warren or Bust this primary season. In fact, I have already voted.

 

[Silky Johnson]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but around 70k ballots have already been cast in Nevada due to early voting. For perspective, around 85k ballots were cast in Nevada in total in 2016. So even if turnout is up expotentially, it's likely too late for last nights performance to help her there.

Hoping for some Bill Clinton-esque comeback kid story seems as misguided as Bernie Bros and their Bernie math in 2016.

However, I would strongly recommend just voting for the candidate you want to win and/or have power in the event of a contested convention. If we end up with no one actually gaining momentum, who controls the bargaining chips at the convention will matter a la a multiparty system that so many seem to desire.

To quote a previous candidate whose only hope was winning via a contested convention:

Well, I – you know, I don’t want to speculate about the future and I think there are other factors involved. I think it is probably the case that the candidate who has the most pledged delegates is going to be the candidate, but there are other factors.

-- Bernie Sanders, 2016​

May "other factors" grant us victory.

Idk about all that....Early voting numbers tend to skew towards older, more active voters that have made up their minds a long time ago.

Warren was clearly after bringing new people under her tent. Don't be surprised to see a surge of younger, first-time voters heading her way after last night.

The pundits have missed the boat on what a "swing voter" is for at least 3 cycles now. It's no longer about the voter deciding between the two parties but really the voter who is deciding to participate at all that will make the difference.

 

[intra vires]

Idk about all that....Early voting numbers tend to skew towards older, more active voters that have made up their minds a long time ago.

Warren was clearly after bringing new people under her tent. Don't be surprised to see a surge of younger, first-time voters heading her way after last night.

The pundits have missed the boat on what a "swing voter" is for at least 3 cycles now. It's no longer about the voter deciding between the two parties but really the voter who is deciding to participate at all that will make the difference.

Again, early voting in that state has already matched 82% of what total turnout was in 2016. Why is this important? This is the first time the state has allowed for early voting to occur. Recall that Nevada is a caucus not a primary so participation tends to be lower because caucuses needlessly time-consuming and are a nonsensical less democratic way to choose a candidate. So, it seems unwise to apply conventional wisdom drawn from primary early voting patterns and apply them to caucuses.

The data shows that Buttigieg has brought in the most new voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Furthermore, the traitor to his generation hasn't done as poorly with young voters in those to states as I and many others would have expected. While IA and NH aren't comparable to Nevada demographically, he has the second-best ground game within the state (a distant second to Sanders), and he pulls directly from Warren's support. Again, the way caucuses work tends to depress youth and working-class turnout, so I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of them took advantage of the early voting since they may not have otherwise been able to participate in the process. Take a look at who the satellite caucuses in IA mostly benefitted, it was the people (working class, younger, and/or minority voters) who normally have trouble (or discouraged) participating in caucuses due to how they function and when they occur.

I'd like for her to get a comeback kid narrative in Nevada, hell I mentioned how she needed to go for broke there like a week ago, but I just don't think the present conditions are conducive to making it happen. She can still get a boost in other states/national polling but the calendar is her enemy.

 

[Json]

Again, early voting in that state has already matched 82% of what total turnout was in 2016. Why is this important? This is the first time the state has allowed for early voting to occur. Recall that Nevada is a caucus not a primary so participation tends to be lower because caucuses needlessly time-consuming and are a nonsensical less democratic way to choose a candidate. So, it seems unwise to apply conventional wisdom drawn from primary early voting patterns and apply them to caucuses.

The data shows that Buttigieg has brought in the most new voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Furthermore, the traitor to his generation hasn't done as poorly with young voters in those to states as I and many others would have expected. While IA and NH aren't comparable to Nevada demographically, he has the second-best ground game within the state (a distant second to Sanders), and he pulls directly from Warren's support. Again, the way caucuses work tends to depress youth and working-class turnout, so I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of them took advantage of the early voting since they may not have otherwise been able to participate in the process. Take a look at who the satellite caucuses in IA mostly benefitted, it was the people (working class, younger, and/or minority voters) who normally have trouble (or discouraged) participating in caucuses due to how they function and when they occur.

I'd like for her to get a comeback kid narrative in Nevada, hell I mentioned how she needed to go for broke there like a week ago, but I just don't think the present conditions are conducive to making it happen. She can still get a boost in other states/national polling but the calendar is her enemy.

The reality is we are in uncharted territory. We’ve never had this dynamic of number of candidates in Nevada. The 15 percent viability with early voting has never been done before. I don’t know how many people are planning on standing up on a Saturday to walk around a gym instead of casting an early ballot.

Biden and Pete might end up viable just cause the Latino vote is clustered in one area instead of spread out?

 

[Conan]

Bernie legit refuses to discuss anything about black inequality, dude literally pivots to his best but all inequality matters technique

It is a reoccurring weakness of his compared to Warren. I hope it's something he gets pressed on more.