COVID-19 Pandemic (Coronavirus)

[Jx2]

Chilling trend: A longer, deadlier pandemic

Chilling trend: A longer, deadlier pandemic


Mutated versions of the coronavirus threaten to prolong the pandemic, perhaps for years — killing more people and deepening the global economic crisis in the process.

The big picture: The U.S. and the world are in a race to control the virus before these variants can gain a bigger foothold. But many experts say they already expect things to get worse before they get better. And that also means an end to the pandemic may be getting further away.

• “It may take four to five years before we finally see the end of the pandemic and the start of a post-COVID normal,” Singapore’s education minister said last week, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Where it stands: "There are essentially two separate COVID-19 epidemics," Dutch officials said recently, referring to the original strain of COVID-19 and the burgeoning threat from mutated versions of the virus.

• There’s light at the end of the tunnel for the first epidemic. Although the virus is still spreading uncontrolled across the U.S. and much of the world, cases and hospitalizations are down from their peak, and vaccinations are steadily increasing.
• But the next iteration, fueled by variants of the virus, is already taking hold.

What’s next: A British variant of the coronavirus will likely become the dominant strain within the U.S. pretty soon, experts say. It’s significantly more contagious than the virus we’ve been dealing with so far, and some researchers believe it may also be about 30% more deadly.

• “That hurricane's coming,” Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota and Biden transition adviser, said Sunday on “Meet the Press.”
• A more contagious and more lethal strain of the virus could easily send cases, hospitalizations and deaths soaring right back to record levels, even as vaccinations continue to ramp up.

“We are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.

• It’s already happening in the U.K., where skyrocketing hospitalizations prompted another round of lockdown measures — and pushback against those restrictions.

Vaccines work against the British variant, and they will help control its spread, just as they’ll help control the pandemic overall.

• But vaccinations can only ramp up so quickly. The Biden administration is trying to push doses out the door as fast as it can, but there’s a very good chance the more contagious virus is moving faster.
• The existing vaccines don’t appear to work as well against some other variants, including a particularly troubling one first identified in South Africa. They do work, and they appear to prevent serious illness and death, which are the most important things — but they may not prevent as many infections overall.
• Vaccine makers can rework their recipes and come up with booster shots to help address more resistant strains, but that will take time.

How it works: All of these problems stem from the same underlying problem — the unchecked spread of the virus.

• More cases mean more hospitalizations and more death. Bigger outbreaks also provide more opportunities for mutations to arise, and to spread.
• A more transmissible virus means that a greater share of the population — maybe as much as 85% — would have to get vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity. That’ll be a stretch, given the widespread vaccine hesitancy across the country.

Because vaccine production is still scaling up, getting things under control well enough to head off a second phase of the pandemic would have to rely heavily on social distancing and mask-wearing.

• That’s not a very promising position to be in, especially for a country like the U.S.

The bottom line: Vaccines work, and they are still the key to ending this pandemic. But leaning on them almost exclusively only makes the job harder and will likely prolong this pandemic for years.

 

[null]

Chilling trend: A longer, deadlier pandemic

Osterholm is Dr. Doom. The guy just hits the world with one hammer blow after the next.

 

[MikelArteta]

Chilling trend: A longer, deadlier pandemic

Chilling trend: A longer, deadlier pandemic


Mutated versions of the coronavirus threaten to prolong the pandemic, perhaps for years — killing more people and deepening the global economic crisis in the process.

The big picture: The U.S. and the world are in a race to control the virus before these variants can gain a bigger foothold. But many experts say they already expect things to get worse before they get better. And that also means an end to the pandemic may be getting further away.

• “It may take four to five years before we finally see the end of the pandemic and the start of a post-COVID normal,” Singapore’s education minister said last week, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Where it stands: "There are essentially two separate COVID-19 epidemics," Dutch officials said recently, referring to the original strain of COVID-19 and the burgeoning threat from mutated versions of the virus.

• There’s light at the end of the tunnel for the first epidemic. Although the virus is still spreading uncontrolled across the U.S. and much of the world, cases and hospitalizations are down from their peak, and vaccinations are steadily increasing.
• But the next iteration, fueled by variants of the virus, is already taking hold.

What’s next: A British variant of the coronavirus will likely become the dominant strain within the U.S. pretty soon, experts say. It’s significantly more contagious than the virus we’ve been dealing with so far, and some researchers believe it may also be about 30% more deadly.

• “That hurricane's coming,” Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota and Biden transition adviser, said Sunday on “Meet the Press.”
• A more contagious and more lethal strain of the virus could easily send cases, hospitalizations and deaths soaring right back to record levels, even as vaccinations continue to ramp up.

“We are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.

• It’s already happening in the U.K., where skyrocketing hospitalizations prompted another round of lockdown measures — and pushback against those restrictions.

Vaccines work against the British variant, and they will help control its spread, just as they’ll help control the pandemic overall.

• But vaccinations can only ramp up so quickly. The Biden administration is trying to push doses out the door as fast as it can, but there’s a very good chance the more contagious virus is moving faster.
• The existing vaccines don’t appear to work as well against some other variants, including a particularly troubling one first identified in South Africa. They do work, and they appear to prevent serious illness and death, which are the most important things — but they may not prevent as many infections overall.
• Vaccine makers can rework their recipes and come up with booster shots to help address more resistant strains, but that will take time.

How it works: All of these problems stem from the same underlying problem — the unchecked spread of the virus.

• More cases mean more hospitalizations and more death. Bigger outbreaks also provide more opportunities for mutations to arise, and to spread.
• A more transmissible virus means that a greater share of the population — maybe as much as 85% — would have to get vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity. That’ll be a stretch, given the widespread vaccine hesitancy across the country.

Because vaccine production is still scaling up, getting things under control well enough to head off a second phase of the pandemic would have to rely heavily on social distancing and mask-wearing.

• That’s not a very promising position to be in, especially for a country like the U.S.

The bottom line: Vaccines work, and they are still the key to ending this pandemic. But leaning on them almost exclusively only makes the job harder and will likely prolong this pandemic for years.

 

[MikelArteta]

This is how you win...
Western Australia lockdown: Single Covid case leads to lockdown in Perth metropolitan area and the Peel and South West regions - CNN

Yup Australia has done a great job, it also helps though when you're a island and have no land borders.

But this is great governance, just imagine if every country did this like last year? We would have killed covid like we did sars etc.

The only way these new variants reached over to north america is because of travel

 

[MikelArteta]

Crazy my joint from Canada flew down in December and quarantined when she got back. Literally 3 days upon arriving they changed the rules to needing a negative result within 3 days to get back in.

Canada brehs help me understand something: why is Trudeau so hell bent on the travel restrictions when less than 2% of cases are from travel? Also I heard this fool hasn’t even been in Canada and vaccine dosss have been cut significantly. Is all this stuff his fault?

And now when you go back to canada soon you'll have to quarantine at a hotel for 3 days at a cost of 2,000

 

[MikelArteta]

all of the covid cases in Canada are indirectly or directly from travel

also they are all scared of the new super mutant versions of covid.

almost a year to late same as UK, should have nuked travel

And still the rules are laxed in canada. Truckers should also have to test negative for COVID before crossing borders. Instead a trucker can have covid and just drive across go to walmart spread a new strain

UK still not taking it serious as you can still fly to certain countries and come across

should need a negative test to cross the border

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

Glad I got my second shot two weeks ago



Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections

Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections
Only 0.04% of people caught virus a week after second dose and 0.002% needed hospital treatment

• Coronavirus – latest updates
• See all our coronavirus coverage

Oliver Holmes in Jerusalem
Sun 31 Jan 2021 07.32 EST First published on Sun 31 Jan 2021 06.46 EST

Shares
136




Joseph Zalman Kleinman, 92, a Holocaust survivor, receives his second dose of the Pfizer vaccine in Jerusalem. Photograph: Maya Alleruzzo/AP
Studies in Israel have offered tentative optimism on the effectiveness of vaccines in curbing the coronavirus pandemic, with initial data suggesting even the early stages of inoculation campaigns might have marked decreases in both hospital cases and infections.

With one in three Israelis having received at least one shot, a far higher fraction than anywhere else, the country of 9 million people provides a test case for the worldwide vaccine push.

The state’s 24/7 campaign has meant many vulnerable populations, including about 70% of over-60s, have already received the prescribed two doses of the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine. The country is injecting up to 200,000 people a day, and last week made the jab available to anyone over 35. Secondary school students aged 16 to 18 are also included, in the hopes of allowing them to sit exams.

Israel’s health ministry released its first official results last week, showing that only 317 out of 715,425, or 0.04%, of people became infected a week after becoming fully vaccinated against the disease – the time when increased immunity is expected to kick in. Of the vaccinated people who were infected, 16 had to be treated in hospital, or 0.002% of the total.

One domestic healthcare provider, Maccabi Healthcare Services, released an encouraging smaller study on Thursday. It revealed that out of 163,000 Israelis given both shots, only 31 were infected, compared with nearly 6,500 infections among a control group of unvaccinated people.

Maccabi said the data suggested the vaccine was 92% effective, close to the 95% efficacy that Pfizer claims. “This is very, very good news,” Dr Anat Ekka Zohar, the vice-president of Maccabi, told local media.

Israel’s government has capitalised on its ability to run a rapid vaccination campaign, and analyse its impact on infections in real time, to persuade Pfizer to keep it steadily supplied with doses.

Earlier this month, the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said he had secured a commitment from the pharmaceutical company to bring forward deliveries in return for Israel providing “statistical data” – in effect making the country a mass test case to see how vaccines might halt the pandemic.

The country hopes to have vaccinated all over-16s by the end of March, and possibly earlier. Experts have said, however, that data from Israel is preliminary and could be misleading. With its vast variables and constantly changing scenarios, an entire society cannot act as a petri dish for a vaccine trial, they say.

“When you vaccinate nationwide, there’s lots of confounders,” said Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute. “This is not a trial. That’s the problem. We should be very cautious.”

Israel is up against a debilitating third wave of infections, with a national lockdown unable to significantly push down death rates. The government blames high infection rates on the more transmissible British variant of the virus. There has also been local resentment towards certain sections of the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community that have defied lockdown rules.

Yoav Kisch, the deputy health minister, said on Sunday there would be “a few weeks’ delay” to a national plan to reopen the economy, previously envisioned for early February.

Vaccine data could be influenced by both the lockdown, which may decrease infections, and the British variant, which likely has the opposite effect, in confusing and contrasting ways.

Meanwhile, the first people to receive the vaccine mostly come from vulnerable populations, who may have been more likely to take precautions, which also could skew the data. Preliminary research might show different results at different times as the number of people being vaccinated is continually changing, and hospitalisation usually occurs days after infection.

An intense global focus on signals from Israel has already led to controversy. Several million Palestinians living under Israeli occupation have not been vaccinated. On Sunday, Israel’s defence ministry said it had agreed to send 5,000 doses to immunise frontline Palestinian medical workers, a move that followed international pressure.

Separately, earlier this month, the country’s “coronavirus tsar” raised concerns that one shot of the Pfizer vaccine might be less effective than originally thought. The comments made news in the UK, where the government faces concerns that a policy to delay administering their second doses could backfire. However, Israel’s health ministry later said the comments had been taken out of context.

Last week’s health ministry figures may provide further concern for the UK policy. It showed that 42% of Israel’s 834 critically ill patients had already received one shot of the Pfizer vaccine. That figure dropped to 2% after the second jab.

While acknowledging the limitations of data coming out of Israel, Segal does see possible hope in one potential indicator – the percentage of people over 60 who have become critically ill. As a fraction of the total population, that group, which has largely been vaccinated, is decreasing, a trend not seen during previous lockdowns when inoculations were unavailable.

“There are definitely some positive indications,” he said. “We should begin to see numbers going down, both critically ill and infections. Definitely the critically ill.”

 

[MikelArteta]

Glad I got my second shot two weeks ago



Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections

Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections
Only 0.04% of people caught virus a week after second dose and 0.002% needed hospital treatment

• Coronavirus – latest updates
• See all our coronavirus coverage

Oliver Holmes in Jerusalem
Sun 31 Jan 2021 07.32 EST First published on Sun 31 Jan 2021 06.46 EST

Shares
136




Joseph Zalman Kleinman, 92, a Holocaust survivor, receives his second dose of the Pfizer vaccine in Jerusalem. Photograph: Maya Alleruzzo/AP
Studies in Israel have offered tentative optimism on the effectiveness of vaccines in curbing the coronavirus pandemic, with initial data suggesting even the early stages of inoculation campaigns might have marked decreases in both hospital cases and infections.

With one in three Israelis having received at least one shot, a far higher fraction than anywhere else, the country of 9 million people provides a test case for the worldwide vaccine push.

The state’s 24/7 campaign has meant many vulnerable populations, including about 70% of over-60s, have already received the prescribed two doses of the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine. The country is injecting up to 200,000 people a day, and last week made the jab available to anyone over 35. Secondary school students aged 16 to 18 are also included, in the hopes of allowing them to sit exams.

Israel’s health ministry released its first official results last week, showing that only 317 out of 715,425, or 0.04%, of people became infected a week after becoming fully vaccinated against the disease – the time when increased immunity is expected to kick in. Of the vaccinated people who were infected, 16 had to be treated in hospital, or 0.002% of the total.

One domestic healthcare provider, Maccabi Healthcare Services, released an encouraging smaller study on Thursday. It revealed that out of 163,000 Israelis given both shots, only 31 were infected, compared with nearly 6,500 infections among a control group of unvaccinated people.

Maccabi said the data suggested the vaccine was 92% effective, close to the 95% efficacy that Pfizer claims. “This is very, very good news,” Dr Anat Ekka Zohar, the vice-president of Maccabi, told local media.

Israel’s government has capitalised on its ability to run a rapid vaccination campaign, and analyse its impact on infections in real time, to persuade Pfizer to keep it steadily supplied with doses.

Earlier this month, the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said he had secured a commitment from the pharmaceutical company to bring forward deliveries in return for Israel providing “statistical data” – in effect making the country a mass test case to see how vaccines might halt the pandemic.

The country hopes to have vaccinated all over-16s by the end of March, and possibly earlier. Experts have said, however, that data from Israel is preliminary and could be misleading. With its vast variables and constantly changing scenarios, an entire society cannot act as a petri dish for a vaccine trial, they say.

“When you vaccinate nationwide, there’s lots of confounders,” said Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute. “This is not a trial. That’s the problem. We should be very cautious.”

Israel is up against a debilitating third wave of infections, with a national lockdown unable to significantly push down death rates. The government blames high infection rates on the more transmissible British variant of the virus. There has also been local resentment towards certain sections of the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community that have defied lockdown rules.

Yoav Kisch, the deputy health minister, said on Sunday there would be “a few weeks’ delay” to a national plan to reopen the economy, previously envisioned for early February.

Vaccine data could be influenced by both the lockdown, which may decrease infections, and the British variant, which likely has the opposite effect, in confusing and contrasting ways.

Meanwhile, the first people to receive the vaccine mostly come from vulnerable populations, who may have been more likely to take precautions, which also could skew the data. Preliminary research might show different results at different times as the number of people being vaccinated is continually changing, and hospitalisation usually occurs days after infection.

An intense global focus on signals from Israel has already led to controversy. Several million Palestinians living under Israeli occupation have not been vaccinated. On Sunday, Israel’s defence ministry said it had agreed to send 5,000 doses to immunise frontline Palestinian medical workers, a move that followed international pressure.

Separately, earlier this month, the country’s “coronavirus tsar” raised concerns that one shot of the Pfizer vaccine might be less effective than originally thought. The comments made news in the UK, where the government faces concerns that a policy to delay administering their second doses could backfire. However, Israel’s health ministry later said the comments had been taken out of context.

Last week’s health ministry figures may provide further concern for the UK policy. It showed that 42% of Israel’s 834 critically ill patients had already received one shot of the Pfizer vaccine. That figure dropped to 2% after the second jab.

While acknowledging the limitations of data coming out of Israel, Segal does see possible hope in one potential indicator – the percentage of people over 60 who have become critically ill. As a fraction of the total population, that group, which has largely been vaccinated, is decreasing, a trend not seen during previous lockdowns when inoculations were unavailable.

“There are definitely some positive indications,” he said. “We should begin to see numbers going down, both critically ill and infections. Definitely the critically ill.”

This is great news
Hopefully the other strains can be neutered as well

 

[DaHNIC82]

Osterholm is Dr. Doom. The guy just hits the world with one hammer blow after the next.

Gotta put extra fear on top to alert the foolish.

 

[Theo Penn]

Osterholm is Dr. Doom. The guy just hits the world with one hammer blow after the next.

When Osterholm speaks, I listen. He’s one of the few that tell the truth. Fauci puts on a show out here and was wrong at so many points of the battle last year. No juelzing going on with Osterholm.

Osterholm > Fauci

 

[Trojan 24]

Glad I got my second shot two weeks ago



Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections

Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections
Only 0.04% of people caught virus a week after second dose and 0.002% needed hospital treatment

• Coronavirus – latest updates
• See all our coronavirus coverage

Oliver Holmes in Jerusalem
Sun 31 Jan 2021 07.32 EST First published on Sun 31 Jan 2021 06.46 EST

Shares
136




Joseph Zalman Kleinman, 92, a Holocaust survivor, receives his second dose of the Pfizer vaccine in Jerusalem. Photograph: Maya Alleruzzo/AP
Studies in Israel have offered tentative optimism on the effectiveness of vaccines in curbing the coronavirus pandemic, with initial data suggesting even the early stages of inoculation campaigns might have marked decreases in both hospital cases and infections.

With one in three Israelis having received at least one shot, a far higher fraction than anywhere else, the country of 9 million people provides a test case for the worldwide vaccine push.

The state’s 24/7 campaign has meant many vulnerable populations, including about 70% of over-60s, have already received the prescribed two doses of the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine. The country is injecting up to 200,000 people a day, and last week made the jab available to anyone over 35. Secondary school students aged 16 to 18 are also included, in the hopes of allowing them to sit exams.

Israel’s health ministry released its first official results last week, showing that only 317 out of 715,425, or 0.04%, of people became infected a week after becoming fully vaccinated against the disease – the time when increased immunity is expected to kick in. Of the vaccinated people who were infected, 16 had to be treated in hospital, or 0.002% of the total.

One domestic healthcare provider, Maccabi Healthcare Services, released an encouraging smaller study on Thursday. It revealed that out of 163,000 Israelis given both shots, only 31 were infected, compared with nearly 6,500 infections among a control group of unvaccinated people.

Maccabi said the data suggested the vaccine was 92% effective, close to the 95% efficacy that Pfizer claims. “This is very, very good news,” Dr Anat Ekka Zohar, the vice-president of Maccabi, told local media.

Israel’s government has capitalised on its ability to run a rapid vaccination campaign, and analyse its impact on infections in real time, to persuade Pfizer to keep it steadily supplied with doses.

Earlier this month, the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said he had secured a commitment from the pharmaceutical company to bring forward deliveries in return for Israel providing “statistical data” – in effect making the country a mass test case to see how vaccines might halt the pandemic.

The country hopes to have vaccinated all over-16s by the end of March, and possibly earlier. Experts have said, however, that data from Israel is preliminary and could be misleading. With its vast variables and constantly changing scenarios, an entire society cannot act as a petri dish for a vaccine trial, they say.

“When you vaccinate nationwide, there’s lots of confounders,” said Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute. “This is not a trial. That’s the problem. We should be very cautious.”

Israel is up against a debilitating third wave of infections, with a national lockdown unable to significantly push down death rates. The government blames high infection rates on the more transmissible British variant of the virus. There has also been local resentment towards certain sections of the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community that have defied lockdown rules.

Yoav Kisch, the deputy health minister, said on Sunday there would be “a few weeks’ delay” to a national plan to reopen the economy, previously envisioned for early February.

Vaccine data could be influenced by both the lockdown, which may decrease infections, and the British variant, which likely has the opposite effect, in confusing and contrasting ways.

Meanwhile, the first people to receive the vaccine mostly come from vulnerable populations, who may have been more likely to take precautions, which also could skew the data. Preliminary research might show different results at different times as the number of people being vaccinated is continually changing, and hospitalisation usually occurs days after infection.

An intense global focus on signals from Israel has already led to controversy. Several million Palestinians living under Israeli occupation have not been vaccinated. On Sunday, Israel’s defence ministry said it had agreed to send 5,000 doses to immunise frontline Palestinian medical workers, a move that followed international pressure.

Separately, earlier this month, the country’s “coronavirus tsar” raised concerns that one shot of the Pfizer vaccine might be less effective than originally thought. The comments made news in the UK, where the government faces concerns that a policy to delay administering their second doses could backfire. However, Israel’s health ministry later said the comments had been taken out of context.

Last week’s health ministry figures may provide further concern for the UK policy. It showed that 42% of Israel’s 834 critically ill patients had already received one shot of the Pfizer vaccine. That figure dropped to 2% after the second jab.

While acknowledging the limitations of data coming out of Israel, Segal does see possible hope in one potential indicator – the percentage of people over 60 who have become critically ill. As a fraction of the total population, that group, which has largely been vaccinated, is decreasing, a trend not seen during previous lockdowns when inoculations were unavailable.

“There are definitely some positive indications,” he said. “We should begin to see numbers going down, both critically ill and infections. Definitely the critically ill.”

America about to save the world after almost fukking it all up

 

[Rarely-Wrong Liggins]

America about to save the world after almost fukking it all up

So business as usual then.

 

[Majestyx]

America about to save the world after almost fukking it all up

we wouldnt even be right here in this moment if america was on its square and did a proper shutdown and gave its citizens some bread to hold it down.

 

[Trojan 24]

we wouldnt even be right here in this moment if america was on its square and did a proper shutdown and gave its citizens some bread to hold it down.

EU would be on fire no matter what happened here

 

[MikelArteta]

Indoor Dining Can Return to NYC on Valentine’s Day