The first myth is that China maintains a vast hidden arsenal of potentially thousands of nuclear warheads in the country’s underground tunnels. As the United States has called for a trilateral arms control agreement with both Russia and China, an op-ed contributor to
The Wall Street Journal alleged that any reluctance on Beijing’s part only confirms the existence of this secret nuclear force. Writing in The Hill, two observers
claimed that “Estimates of the size of the Chinese nuclear arsenal vary considerably, from fewer than 300 warheads to a significantly larger number” [emphasis added]. Indeed,
claims of a wildly expansive Chinese nuclear arsenal
are not new—
similar claims were made in major American newspapers nearly a decade ago.
There is, however, little evidence to support these claims. The most credible estimates of China’s nuclear forces from both the U.S. government and independent experts attest to Beijing’s relatively limited — though increasingly sophisticated — nuclear forces. The Pentagon’s
most recent annual report on the Chinese military estimates that China has roughly 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles and puts China’s nuclear warhead stockpile “in the low 200s,” even lower than many well-respected
independent estimates.
Related to the myth of a vast secret warhead stockpile are ongoing concerns that China may attempt a so-called “
sprint to parity” by quickly expanding its nuclear arsenal to the size of the American one. The U.S. government predicts that China will double its nuclear warhead stockpile over the next decade (though
similar past predictions about growth in China’s nuclear arsenal have not come to pass). Given the current size of that stockpile, a doubling would amount to fewer than 500 weapons compared to the 1,550 deployed warhead limit established by the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.
However, and perhaps most significantly, China lacks the fissile material necessary to build a significantly larger nuclear arsenal. The International Panel on Fissile Materials reports that China
stopped production of fissile material for weapons in the 1980s and that Beijing possesses relatively
limited stocks of both uranium and plutonium. Additionally, Chinese warhead designs may be
comparatively conservative, requiring more nuclear fuel than those of other states.
Some skeptics
have fixated on the extensive system of underground tunnels China reportedly uses to shelter and move some of its missiles, arguing that the tunnels themselves are evidence of a vast nuclear stockpile. Why would China create such an elaborate underground network if its arsenal were truly so small? The answer: to shelter this vulnerable nuclear deterrent. Not surprisingly, China sought to protect its relatively modest deterrent force by hiding it. As one expert
has argued, Beijing could have enhanced the survivability of its force by expanding its size. Beijing’s reliance on concealment enhanced the force’s survivability at lower cost and with the added benefit of not introducing arms race pressures.
The third myth is that China has developed and deployed an array of nuclear war-fighting capabilities, including tactical nuclear weapons. While there is no strict definition of tactical nuclear weapon, they are usually defined as lower-yield warheads affixed to shorter-range delivery vehicles and intended for use against military targets on the battlefield or other high-value theater targets. Over the last year,
several American media outlets have published claims that China is fielding or has already fielded an array of tactical nuclear weapons. But such claims lack merit.
China certainly has the industrial and technical base to produce tactical nuclear weapons if such a decision were made. There are
scattered reports that Beijing may have initiated projects to develop such weapons during the Cultural Revolution. But those projects were ultimately canceled before deployment because they conflicted with China’s nuclear strategy. China conducted successful tests of
a neutron bomb in the 1980s, though it’s unclear
how readily those designsmight translate into a modern nuclear war-fighting capability.
More than three decades ago,
U.S. intelligence estimates were
predicting that China would soon field these kinds of capabilities. But 35 years later, those predictions have yet to come true as
Defense Department and
independent assessments of China’s capabilities continue to make no mention of deployed tactical nuclear weapons.
The Dangerous Myths About China’s Nuclear Weapons - War on the Rocks -weapons/pool
Taiwan is independent today, independent tomorrow and will be independent when Xi kicks the bucket