Can Kamala Harris really win?

[Arizax2]

It's Harris race to loose. It's game time after the convention tho. As long as she doesn't fukk up in the debates and ride this wave she should win. Trump needs to chill out and try to gain some independent voters that's turned off from his constant rants but he can't control himself smh.

 

[Wild self]

You dudes are speaking from a place of emotion instead of reality. Kamala being on level with 08 Obama and Trump not getting above 170 electoral votes

Then why Trump taking a 3 week break? Cause MAGA got it in the bag already?

 

[JamesJabdi]

The issue isn't "out performing" polls, it's that general election polling in America has been broken since 2012. Trump has largely been stuck in the same 46% box in both elections, the question is simply about turnout. In a low turnout election (2016) he won, in a high turnout election (2020) he lost, and I'd expect him to lose this November because it will be high turnout again. I don't think this would have been a low turnout election if Biden had remained but clearly Trump's campaign was based around that assumption, and the media narrative fit too.

Trump has virtually no campaign staff or offices in most of the battleground states and he has no ground game. His GOTV machine is being run by a grifter who has never run a real campaign before. And we're about a month and a half away from early voting starting, at which point he's going to start complaining about it and dissuading his voters from voting early (again). Until someone shows me a Trump counter for the insane early/absentee voter numbers democrats will pump out in MI/WI/PA, I'm going to continue believing Kamala has the advantage. All three states are controlled by democrat governors and democrat secretaries of state, and all three have pretty lenient early voting laws.

It would most definetly have been a low voter turnout if Biden was still in the race. in 2020 people wanted Trump out of office for him making a clown of himself everyday on TV from 2017-2020 and everything that happen around that time made it a very hot election. Biden being the anti-trump guy worked well for him but i think anybody would have beat him then. Thats what they doing with Kamala now but it is not as effective...because she has been in the goverment for the last 4 years.

 

[JamesJabdi]

Then why Trump taking a 3 week break? Cause MAGA got it in the bag already?

since you love ban bet so much....how about we make a perma ban bet on Trump electoral votes.

If he don't get above 170 electoral votes i will be perma banned......if he does get above 170 electoral votes you will get the boot......don't back out now

 

[King Poetic]

I still don’t get why black folks not looking at the bigger picture which is the Supreme Court .. alito and thomas on they last leg and u can simply flip the courts to 5-4

Motherfukkers keep on bringing up the California attorney shyt, she’s not black etc etc

And these same nikkas going to be all If trump win and then start crying when the country really goes to shyt since he has no idea about politics and the economy

 

[Piff Perkins]

It would most definetly have been a low voter turnout if Biden was still in the race. in 2020 people wanted Trump out of office for him making a clown of himself everyday on TV from 2017-2020 and everything that happen around that time made it a very hot election. Biden being the anti-trump guy worked well for him but i think anybody would have beat him then. Thats what they doing with Kamala now but it is not as effective...because she has been in the goverment for the last 4 years.

Ok fine. Well Biden isn't in the race so it won't be low turnout and Trump has no answer for that.

The problem is that anti-Trump voters have been the most consistent coalition in every election since 2018. Large 2018 victory, large 2020 presidential and senate victories, 2022 was the best performance from an incumbent WH party in modern history, multiple special election wins in 2023, etc. I don't think Kamala is bad but her success can largely be summed up by millions of people saying "oh, I can vote for a normal brained person who can walk up/down stairs now." People were always willing to vote against Trump, they've been doing it for nearly a decade now. They simply wanted a competent candidate, and now they have one. In short, Kamala's involvement in government over the last 4 years is irrelevant - she is the anti Trump candidate and will get their vote. The enormous increase in democrat enthusiasm for the election tells me everything I need to know.

Kamala has expanded the map on Trump at a time when his money issues (ie not spending on GOTV, ground game, etc) is coming into play. Against Biden in a race that would revolve around three states (MI/WI/PA), Trump could take that risk. But with Kamala opening up polling leads in AZ and NV while competing in GA and NC...he's probably fukked. Not because I believe the polls now...polls are simply snapshots of voter engagement. And when NV goes from being a Biden graveyard to returning to blue for Kamala that tells me she's simply energizing the base. There are more democrat-leaning voters than republican-leaning and given that we know Trump is stuck at 46%...how does he win against a motivated base?

 

[Wild self]

since you love ban bet so much....how about we make a perma ban bet on Trump electoral votes.

If he don't get above 170 electoral votes i will be perma banned......if he does get above 170 electoral votes you will get the boot......don't back out now

Don't change the narrative.

Ban bet on whoever wins or loses, regardless of electoral votes, like how my original bet was.

 

[Wild self]

Ok fine. Well Biden isn't in the race so it won't be low turnout and Trump has no answer for that.

The problem is that anti-Trump voters have been the most consistent coalition in every election since 2018. Large 2018 victory, large 2020 presidential and senate victories, 2022 was the best performance from an incumbent WH party in modern history, multiple special election wins in 2023, etc. I don't think Kamala is bad but her success can largely be summed up by millions of people saying "oh, I can vote for a normal brained person who can walk up/down stairs now." People were always willing to vote against Trump, they've been doing it for nearly a decade now. They simply wanted a competent candidate, and now they have one. In short, Kamala's involvement in government over the last 4 years is irrelevant - she is the anti Trump candidate and will get their vote. The enormous increase in democrat enthusiasm for the election tells me everything I need to know.

Kamala has expanded the map on Trump at a time when his money issues (ie not spending on GOTV, ground game, etc) is coming into play. Against Biden in a race that would revolve around three states (MI/WI/PA), Trump could take that risk. But with Kamala opening up polling leads in AZ and NV while competing in GA and NC...he's probably fukked. Not because I believe the polls now...polls are simply snapshots of voter engagement. And when NV goes from being a Biden graveyard to returning to blue for Kamala that tells me she's simply energizing the base. There are more democrat-leaning voters than republican-leaning and given that we know Trump is stuck at 46%...how does he win against a motivated base?

According to him, Trump has an infinite amount of hidden voters that refuse to answer polls

 

[Kyle C. Barker]

since you love ban bet so much....how about we make a perma ban bet on Trump electoral votes.

If he don't get above 170 electoral votes i will be perma banned......if he does get above 170 electoral votes you will get the boot......don't back out now

 

[IIVI]

Do people not realize we're only ~2 months away from the election?

Trump's motion is absolutely gone and Kamala's will only climb more.

Don't get complacent, still go out and vote, but this shyt will be a landslide.

 

[IIVI]

Ain't no way am I voting with Elon.

She's going to absolutely destroy Trump and everybody at Fox in the debate next month.

 

[Killah Ray]

Kamala got that same "match the young people" energy that Obama had going into 08......I feel cautiously great for her odds at this point....

 

[jesc07]

You need to step outside if you think Kamala has the energy Obama did in 08. That's delusion right there. Obama was a hot name when he won to become the senator of Illinois and then he came out of nowhere to defeat Hillary (the heavy favorite). We'll probably never see a run like that again in our lifetime.

She doesn't even have 25% of the energy that Obama did.

 

[2 Up 2 Down]

Crazy to see that some people don't that it is a possibility. The momentum has been on her side since Biden dropped out (the Walz addition added another boost) and Trump has been looking worse each week since

 

[JamesJabdi]

Ok fine. Well Biden isn't in the race so it won't be low turnout and Trump has no answer for that.

The problem is that anti-Trump voters have been the most consistent coalition in every election since 2018. Large 2018 victory, large 2020 presidential and senate victories, 2022 was the best performance from an incumbent WH party in modern history, multiple special election wins in 2023, etc. I don't think Kamala is bad but her success can largely be summed up by millions of people saying "oh, I can vote for a normal brained person who can walk up/down stairs now." People were always willing to vote against Trump, they've been doing it for nearly a decade now. They simply wanted a competent candidate, and now they have one. In short, Kamala's involvement in government over the last 4 years is irrelevant - she is the anti Trump candidate and will get their vote. The enormous increase in democrat enthusiasm for the election tells me everything I need to know.

Kamala has expanded the map on Trump at a time when his money issues (ie not spending on GOTV, ground game, etc) is coming into play. Against Biden in a race that would revolve around three states (MI/WI/PA), Trump could take that risk. But with Kamala opening up polling leads in AZ and NV while competing in GA and NC...he's probably fukked. Not because I believe the polls now...polls are simply snapshots of voter engagement. And when NV goes from being a Biden graveyard to returning to blue for Kamala that tells me she's simply energizing the base. There are more democrat-leaning voters than republican-leaning and given that we know Trump is stuck at 46%...how does he win against a motivated base?

They picked the competent candidate too late in the race. Her being in the goverment for the last 4 years is very relevant and will be brought up on debate night. What worked well for Trump in 2016 is that he was the "anti-establishment" candidate and what worked well for Biden was that he was the anti-trump candidate? why is that? because they get in the race and sweet talk the public about being able to offer them something new from the current goverment...KAMALA IS THE CURRENT GOVERMENT....right now people don't know what Kamala is going to do.......she wants to distance herself from Biden but at the same time use her time as VP as stamp of approval.

Last election Biden only won Wisconsin by 20k. since then Trump has been there doing rallies multiple times there this year along with Michigan, Georgia and PA. You are discounting the amount of americans who are conservartive and who don't think a woman should be the head of state. They wouldn't vote for Hillary a blond blue eyed white woman but they will vote for Kamala a woman of color who just got thrown in the race? 3 week she been in the race and y'all think she already locked in with millions of voters across the nation? nahh