It all boils down to AD's health.
If he's healthy they are title contenders
You can't win in the NBA as a two-man game. Even back in the day Magic-Kareem and Shaq-Kobe needed their supporting cast to play well.
With the quality and fit of the Lakers' cast right now, they either need them to play perfect or they need to upgrade their supporting cast. Most of all they just don't have the shooting they need for playoff basketball unless KCP and at least one other guy are going off.