I don't know why you guys think that a VP candidate will automatically win their home state (or even help in their home state appreciably more than other potential VP candidates).
The way to think about it is who helps the most in the highest number of crucial states.
Who helps more in MI/PA/WI combined? Shapiro or Walz? I think the answer is obviously Walz. I really hope they choose Walz.
I could see Shapiro being the pick though, and not just for PA. Dems could easily make the calculation that he will also help with the pro-Israel crowd. I really hope that they don't go with Shapiro, but I think they will.