I don't agree 100% but we keep having elections where very few people (outside of the Coli lol) mention all the old people who died in 2020...and then democrats win elections. 2020, 2022, 2023 special elections, etc. That mixed with the general anti-Trump sentiment we've seen since 2018 midterms tells me this will be high turnout and the youth vote will be large. I don't think enough folks are grabbling with the reality that a lot of 50-80 year old people aren't around anymore because they died in 2020/2021. And yet the pollsters keep reaching the covid survivors who still have land lines, and that's how we get the poll numbers we get...
This reminds me of my friend swearing for a decade that Texas is on the cusp of turning blue due to demographics changes
This math is a bit simplistic, and maybe works in a popular vote context. With the electoral college (note that her analysis only goes as far as South and West regions: not surgical enough) it's harder to place. Does this take into account the increased number of young men holding conservative views?
Plus it's been known for years that relying on that demographic to come out and vote is risky. You gotta offer them something significant or be a transcendent candidate to generate that pull, ala Obama in '08.
One part of the coin is in: Trump's awfulness and Project 2025. If Harris comes out on some Milquetoast 2.0, this may not be enough for this cycle... Really eager to see how she distinguishes herself from Biden.