2022 Midterm Elections: NO RED WAVE! - GOP Takes U.S. House; Dems Keep U.S. Senate

Json

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one of the things ive been thinking about today is how people always talk about inevitable huge losses for the presidents party in a midterm election. and they make it seem automatic, but its not.

the opposition party is proactive when those cycles happen. they have just lost a presidential election and they change their partys focuses and distance themselves from the candidate america rejected. you didnt see hillary in 2018, mccain in 2010. they didnt make those midterms into referenda on their losing candidate. but this time republicans went all in on a candidate who just lost
I mean the president is the face of the party. So after two years you are going to take your frustrations out on him. Not the minority speaker of the house or senate.

The only real difference with inflation this time and when it was this high 40 years ago is the president isn’t really to blame. We all know Covid and Russia (and corporate greed) are playing a huge part in making things worse. Plus thankfully Ukraine is in a strong position with almost zero Americans being killed.
 

Json

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I posted a data point showing that 90%of people who register to vote do.

In a hyperpartisan environment it's silly to think they flip flop.
But in a era of hyper partisan gerrymandering. Newly Registered voters only help in the statewide races. You can still dilute votes to control the house.
 

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But in a era of hyper partisan gerrymandering. Newly Registered voters only help in the statewide races. You can still dilute votes to control the house.
Based on what we're seeing I'm not sure this thesis holds.

For example, if you move a district from +5Dto a toss up and follow that up with an influx of D voters you've offset much of the strength of the gerrymander.
 

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the opposition party is proactive when those cycles happen. they have just lost a presidential election and they change their partys focuses and distance themselves from the candidate america rejected. you didnt see hillary in 2018, mccain in 2010. they didnt make those midterms into referenda on their losing candidate. but this time republicans went all in on a candidate who just lost
That’s a good point
 

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Another observation. Dems really need a more aggressive plan to reach out to Zoomers without completely scaring off moderates. They are the future and may be the most progressive generation ever. By 2024 more of them will be eligible to vote and they could totally sweep the floor of Republicans.


I pointed this out 3-4 years ago on here. Demographically, Democrats should be absolutely dominant in federal elections by 2028 if they don't alienate their young, progressive, black and brown voters.

And that was before Covid did its work.
 
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