2020 Democratic Primary Thread: Focus on House & Senate races

[afterlife2009]

Biden leads Democrats as minorities favor most electable candidate versus Trump: Reuters/Ipsos poll - Reuters

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Joe Biden maintained his lead for the Democratic presidential nomination as minorities gravitated toward the former vice president and his top rival, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, in search of the safest bets for beating President Donald Trump in 2020, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The Aug. 1-5 public opinion poll, released on Wednesday, showed that 22% of Democrats and independents would vote for Biden, a level that is unchanged from a similar poll that ran last month. Another 18% said they supported Sanders, up 2 percentage points from the July poll.

None of 23 other candidates received more than 9% in the poll.

Biden and Sanders offer Democrats sharply contrasting views on how to govern. Sanders leads the effort to expand government-run healthcare for all Americans while Biden offers a more moderate approach that would allow people to keep their existing healthcare plans.

Yet the choice for Democrats may have less to do with ideology and more to do with who is best suited to beat Trump in the November 2020 general election.

According to the poll, 36% of Democrats say they are simply looking for someone who can win. Only 11% say the most important quality is someone with a strong healthcare plan, and 5% say it is most important to pick a strong voice on the environment.

Biden and Sanders are currently viewed as the safest bets for beating Trump among all Democrats. Both improved their standing among minorities over the past month as Trump repeatedly vilified minority lawmakers in a series of tweets and public comments that infuriated Democrats and many others.

In one exchange Trump told four minority lawmakers who have been critical of his administration to “go back” to where they came from.

From July to August, both Biden and Sanders received a stronger level of support from minorities, and minorities also shifted their support away from lesser-known candidates like U.S. Senator Kamala Harris of California and former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke.

Among racial minorities who identify as Democrats or independents, 23% said they would vote for Biden and 23% said they would support Sanders, which is up 2 points for each candidate from July.

Another 6% said they backed Harris, down 5 points from July, and 2% supported O’Rourke, down 3 points from the previous poll.

When asked who would be most likely to beat Trump in the 2020 general election, 33% of minorities picked Biden and 19% picked Sanders.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online in English throughout the United States. It gathered responses from 1,210 adults, including 483 racial minorities. It has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 5 percentage points.

for those hoping Biden flops next year, Bernie stands the most gain from it.

 

[Berniewood Hogan]

Tulsi Gabbard only made it to the debate stage because Neo Nazi website Daily Stormer did a big funding drive for her.

Keep that in mind when you see these retards tapping Tulsi.

 

[NkrumahWasRight Is Wrong]

He lost. Therefore saying Bernie would best Trump is as useful as saying Ted Cruz would best Hillary.

Ok i get that

 

[FAH1223]

Biden leads Democrats as minorities favor most electable candidate versus Trump: Reuters/Ipsos poll - Reuters



for those hoping Biden flops next year, Bernie stands the most gain from it.

Funny thing with the Biden Boyz on here @Atlrocafella @Brock Luciano is that Biden voters overwhelmingly 2nd choice is Bernie. :bernielaugh:

And on the other hand, the 2nd choice for Bernie voters is... Biden.

 

[Berniewood Hogan]

And regarding 2016: The only way Bernie would have lost would be if Hillary's primary voters refused to support him.

And now that I think about it, that definitely would have happened. Always remember PUMA from 2008. Hillaryism is a cult of white women who don't want to break the glass ceiling. They just want to get around it and then look down on everybody else.

 

[King Kreole]

BTW, anyone talking about a contested convention?



Mayor Pete trying to over step?

my guy saying fukk the process we tryna get in that WHITE HOUSE

 

[storyteller]

Nah. Usual RT pro-Russia talking points. Trashing CNN/MSNBC and sometimes FOX.

BTW, anyone talking about a contested convention?



Mayor Pete trying to over step?

I remembered hearing Sanders' crew talk about how they were preparing too. I think the candidates with good fundraising numbers must be putting some money into a team to work on that possibility, though Bernie and Pete are the only two I've seen openly using the strategy.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/rubycramer/superdelegates-2020-convention-democrats

Superdelegates — the elected officials, party officers, and activists who have been given a say in the Democratic nominating system since 1982 — were stripped of their vote in the first round of convention voting last year, a move to appeal to Sanders supporters who felt the system unfairly benefited Hillary Clinton in 2016. But across the field of 21 candidates, campaigns with the resources to do so are already courting superdelegate support to prepare for the possibility of a contested convention next summer — a scenario in which superdelegate votes could come back into play.

“We're taking superdelegates and superdelegates strategy seriously,” a Sanders aide said, “hence having a team dedicated to delegates who can prepare for multiple convention scenarios. We will be reaching out to them over the course of the campaign. When the senator wins the nomination, he's eager to work with them to support and unite all the party in the general and beyond.”

Sanders has also tasked Matt Berg, a former 2016 aide, with overseeing delegate strategy and ballot access, including superdelegate outreach. (After Sanders ended his first presidential bid, Berg worked closely alongside Huynh on Perez’s DNC campaign, helping to lead his whip operation.)

Sanders aides say they hope to be in contact with superdelegates earlier in the process than last time, when a last-ditch effort to court their support prompted one supporter to encourage Sanders voters to “harass” superdelegates by posting their contact information in an online “hit list.”

Several operatives noted that South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg might have an advantage with the 450 or so superdelegates who are DNC members. In 2017, Buttigieg ran for DNC chair against Perez, helping to boost his national profile, though he dropped out of the race before voting. (Even though the 37-year-old mayor caught the attention of DNC members during the chair race, he secured only about seven committed votes, according to two operatives tracking the race at the time. Six were from his home state. The other was from Nan Whaley, a fellow mayor from Dayton, Ohio, who has now endorsed his presidential campaign.)

The Booker, Buttigieg, Biden, and Warren campaigns did not respond to requests for comment or declined to comment.

“Look, it’s smart politics in the sense that, if you have the bandwidth and capacity to do it, it’d be very smart to be ready for that contingency,” said Longabaugh, the former Sanders adviser.

“But I would argue for putting more time into trying to win Iowa and New Hampshire.”

 

[CBSkyline]

Question

To qualify for the next debate..is it only national polls?

To get to the next debate you need to poll at least 2% four times in national or state polls from the following organizations:

Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Des Moines Register, Fox News, Monmouth University, NBC News, New York Times, National Public Radio (NPR), Quinnipiac University, University of New Hampshire, Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Washington Post, or Winthrop University.

Yang would have been qualifed, but the DNC ruled that only 1 NBC poll counted and he couldn't use the second one, so he is still at 3 polls. Tulsi would have had her second one if the new Suffolk poll was sponsored by USA Today instead of the Boston Globe

 

[FAH1223]

 

[FAH1223]

I remembered hearing Sanders' crew talk about how they were preparing too. I think the candidates with good fundraising numbers must be putting some money into a team to work on that possibility, though Bernie and Pete are the only two I've seen openly using the strategy.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/rubycramer/superdelegates-2020-convention-democrats

They probably both realize that Biden with a snap of his finger can get most of the superdelegates.

And if it’s contested and Biden is at or near the top, there’s no way anyone can overcome Biden getting the superdelegates needed on 2nd ballot at convention....

 

[storyteller]

They probably both realize that Biden with a snap of his finger can get most of the superdelegates.

And if it’s contested and Biden is at or near the top, there’s no way anyone can overcome Biden getting the superdelegates needed on 2nd ballot at convention....

It's cross my mind that the lack of attacks between the rest of the top five (Bernie, Warren, Pete, Harris) is because they may need to try and share super delegates for leverage at some point. I think Pete is well positions to lobby for an administration role with anyone and Harris was looking like a great VP option for the others until she released her actual policies and got smoked at the last debates (she can absolutely recover imo). Pure speculation on my part though.

 

[A.R.$]

What facts am I denying? If Bernie was the better candidate, he would have been the nominee. The majority of those voting during the primaries also didn’t agree with Bernie. Those are FACTS.

You want to point to polls when it comes to Bernie and Hillary, but want to call those same polls nonsense when it says Biden is the most electable. You can’t have it both ways breh.

You keep saying if Bernie was the better candidate he would of been the nominee. That is not how things work. Some of the key states were closed primaries, which means they didn’t allow independents to vote. Bernie outperformed Hillary with independent voters. Bernie won Wisconsin, and Michigan in the primaries, and probably would of won those states in the general, because Trump wouldn’t of been able to use the trade argument against Bernie. Also the DNC was activity tipping the process for Hillary by limiting debates and with the superdelegate process. And like I said i’m Not even the biggest Bernie Sanders fan.

Second,

It is about turnout. Joe can win the popular vote, and still lose the election. I think Joe will struggle in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and maybe Pennsylvania just like Hillary did. Especially once they start hammering away at his trade record. Biden supported NAFTA, and TPP which are extremely unpopular in those states, and one of the main reasons Hillary lost these states in 2016. Trump is going exploit Biden record. Trump is highly unpopular (especially for an incumbent), so Biden weaknesses might not matter. However, we tried to tell people Hillary was a bad candidate in 2016. Biden is the same type of candidate, and may even be worse in some areas. Hopefully we won’t make the same mistake we did in 2016.

 

[John Reena]

IF YOU CANNOT WIN YOUR PARTIES NOMINATION YOU CANNOT WIN THE ELECTION!

It's really that simple.

If Bernie couldn’t Hilary, he sure wasn’t beating Trump.



Bernie couldn’t beat a female, liberal candidate who didn’t even bother to campaign half da time.

 

[John Reena]

Funny thing with the Biden Boyz on here @Atlrocafella @Brock Luciano is that Biden voters overwhelmingly 2nd choice is Bernie. :bernielaugh:

And on the other hand, the 2nd choice for Bernie voters is... Biden.

Bernie would get MOPPED by Trump.

 

[FAH1223]

Bernie would get MOPPED by Trump.

Based on what?

Bernie has voted against NAFTA and bad trade deals. Trump can't hit him on that. But he can hit Joe Biden on that.

Bernie voted against the war in Iraq. Trump can't hit him on that. But he can hit Joe on that.

Bernie voted for the crime bill but he's not the architect of it.

Bernie has a healthcare plan and can also cite that he helped lead efforts to save Obamacare in 2017 with rallies all over the country and he can cite the measures for community health centers he helped put in place in the bill. Bernie has been calling out Trump for trying to cut Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security. There's receipts for that and Trump being a liar. Bernie is not afraid of calling out the BS.

Bernie is at war with the oligarchs, Biden isn't. Trump can't do that bullshid he did with Hillary on Bernie.

Bernie has the largest grassroots army of anyone running, Trump included.

The only thing he'll get mopped at is fundraising since Trump and the RNC have the oligarchs but he has a formidable fundraising base.

Bernie also looks like he has more high energy than Joe. Bernie isn't gaffe prone. Joe is. Bernie doesn't have a son who's done shady deals with Ukraine and China. Bernie's brother didn't benefit off him being a US Senator voting on bank bills.

All the Trump campaign will say is that this guy is a crazy socialist or communist. IMO, they will underestimate Sanders. I can already see it.