2020 Democratic Primary Thread: Focus on House & Senate races

[FAH1223]

@FAH1223 lol I definitely have criticized the professional progressive activist class but I think Stoller is going a bit too far lol. There was way more Twitter woke rhetoric that doesn't resonate in a national election in Warren's campaign than Bernie's

He's really worked up about all of this cause neither Bernie or Warren are looking like their gonna come out of this winning. The plan for Bernie to win was the centrists clustered on Super Tuesday and winning big delegate margins in Cali/Texas but we honestly didn't see the moderates coalescing + endorsements/free media for Biden coming that quickly. It was a good plan, it almost worked. As much as I criticize the failures of the professional activist/NGO industrial complex crowd, it didn't effect what happened after Nevada and South Carolina.

Stoller's tweet will have more weight during AOC's primary run in 2024/2028 when the Bernie/Warren activists join up together and she gets destroyed worse than Bernie in the south and Mid-west

I hate these people Already pushing AOC to run in 2024/2028

That energy should go to someone like a Keith Ellison who knows how to build relationships in the party.

 

[Loose]

I hate these people Already pushing AOC to run in 2024/2028

That energy should go to someone like a Keith Ellison who knows how to build relationships in the party.

Please no AOC she would be a disaster on the national scale and further deteriorate the progressive wing

 

[afterlife2009]

I hate these people Already pushing AOC to run in 2024/2028

That energy should go to someone like a Keith Ellison who knows how to build relationships in the party.

We almost got Keith Ellison but made some moves behind the scenes

Look we are just at a massive disadvantage institutionally. The power and money structures within the party aren’t going to just flock over. I think part of the left should focus on the destruction of the Dem leaning media establishment, that's our biggest obstacle to political progress at the moment imo

Ro Khanna sucks on certain issues and he’s not what we really need but he’s the only one at the moment I see being able to win “moderates” and other average votes in a national primary if the party keeps gaining with suburban voters. I’d probably vote for him

 

[thatrapsfan]

Its not about the primary.

Its about the general election.

I'm sorry but this isn't 2012 Biden who smacked around Paul Ryan.

And I've criticized the Bernie campaign on here. They don't have the political operatives needed to win. They had all this money. All these resources the others didn't have. I'm convinced Bernie isn't in it to actually win it.

We are so fukked.

I don’t know how you can make a clear cut argument that Biden will lose when a) he is leading among voters without college degree i.e. working class b) turning out suburbanites that helped flip the House in 2018 in record numbers c) turning out black vote d) Winning and polling well in states that will be essential in GE

The head to head general election national polling numbers for Bernie and Biden are pretty much identical, except the latter has a far more reliable voter coalition as far as turnout goes.

Taking all this into account, and the fact General Elections are won at the thin margins, I really don’t see how you can make a good faith argument that he will definitely lose. I think the vast majority of people pushing this *want* Biden to lose, because a win would shatter their theories of political change.

 

[FAH1223]

I don’t know how you can make a clear cut argument that Biden will lose when a) he is leading among voters without college degree i.e. working class b) turning out suburbanites that helped flip the House in 2018 in record numbers c) turning out black vote d) Winning and polling well in states that will be essential in GE

The head to head general election national polling numbers for Bernie and Biden are pretty much identical, except the latter has a far more reliable voter coalition as far as turnout goes.

Taking all this into account, and the fact General Elections are won at the thin margins, I really don’t see how you can make a good faith argument that he will definitely lose. I think the vast majority of people pushing this *want* Biden to lose because of what a victory would mean for their theories of political change.

I think Joe can win. I am terrified he can lose it though based on his history.

If he is the nominee, he MUST win.

My fear is we have the Senate, Joe wins and he doesn’t govern effectively leading to a way more polished right wing populist coming in 2024.

 

[thatrapsfan]

@Skyfall you were so right. Fukk these lefty political professional class people

Bernie was better off with Tad Devine and his crew than this.

Rare moment I agree with this guy.

 

[Secure Da Bag]

This will probably the only election where the VP is as, if not more, important than the President. Only because one of two men in their 70s of questionable cognizance will be leading the country.

 

[Skooby]

last gasp desperation on this dementia line is reaching a fever pitch. How long till we see people campaigning for Trump after Biden wins the nom?

I cannot stand that Kyle dude. Probably telling all types of lies about Biden.

 

[A.R.$]

This isn’t about moving people on the fence, it’s about charging dem/dem voting independents to come out. And again, Trump now has a record, it’s not like 2016


Lastly, the emotional aspect is a small segment of voters, those polls showing how many people made their mind up in the 3 days before voting (some while in line) shows the masses aren’t emotionally invested. You hit them on fukked up environment and judges are for life, that’s enough, no need to dig in deep in policy, just outcomes.

I think are talking about two different thing. The premise of this conversation was about Bernie Bros and unity. Those are the people I am saying need time. But also the Dem voters that sit home and independents are going to be the hardest to convince. People made the same arguments about judges in 2016. It was even more in the news because the senate republicans were blocking Obama’s Supreme Court nominee. You keep discounting 2016 by saying Trump has a record now. However, all evidence suggests that Trump is more popular now than he was in 2016 Trump Job Approval Rating at 47%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 Favorability Ratings

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Trump: Favorable/Unfavorable

While Trump numbers are not good, they are no worse than they were in 2016. They are actually slightly better now. And to top it off I think Biden is actually a worse candidate than HRC

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

I think are talking about two different thing. The premise of this conversation was about Bernie Bros and unity. Those are the people I am saying need time. But also the Dem voters that sit home and independents are going to be the hardest to convince. People made the same arguments about judges in 2016. It was even more in the news because the senate republicans were blocking Obama’s Supreme Court nominee. You keep discounting 2016 by saying Trump has a record now. However, all evidence suggests that Trump is more popular now than he was in 2016 Trump Job Approval Rating at 47%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 Favorability Ratings

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Trump: Favorable/Unfavorable

While Trump numbers are not good, they are no worse than they were in 2016. They are actually slightly better now. And to top it off I think Biden is actually a worse candidate than HRC

Favorability polling doesn’t equal votes, if that were true, Bernie would be running away with this.

Biden isn’t a worse candidate than Hillary, it’s clear both sexism and disdain for her oppressed turnout, he has neither of those.

some of y’all want to frame this election as insurmountable simply because it looks like your favored candidate isn’t going to be the nominee, that’s stupid. Bernie and Biden both are risks, and both are people who can win if we turnout.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

@Skyfall you were so right. Fukk these lefty political professional class people

Bernie was better off with Tad Devine and his crew than this.

I keep telling you this b*stard is racist

 

[blotter]

You want real tangibles for black Americans? Come on down to Team #NotMeUs

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

@FAH1223 lol I definitely have criticized the professional progressive activist class but I think Stoller is going a bit too far lol. There was way more Twitter woke rhetoric that doesn't resonate in a national election in Warren's campaign than Bernie's

He's really worked up about all of this cause neither Bernie or Warren are looking like their gonna come out of this winning. The plan for Bernie to win was the centrists clustered on Super Tuesday and winning big delegate margins in Cali/Texas but we honestly didn't see the moderates coalescing + endorsements/free media for Biden coming that quickly. It was a good plan, it almost worked. As much as I criticize the failures of the professional activist/NGO industrial complex crowd, it didn't effect what happened after Nevada and South Carolina.

Stoller's tweet will have more weight during AOC's primary run in 2024/2028 when the Bernie/Warren activists join up together and she gets destroyed worse than Bernie in the south and Mid-west

I keep telling people Matt Stoller is racist.

Add Lee Fang in there too

They HATE any attempts to appeal to black voters and describe it as "wokeness"

 

[Loose]

I keep telling people Matt Stoller is racist.

Add Lee Fang in there too

They HATE any attempts to appeal to black voters and describe it as "wokeness"

Thosw tweets was borderline dog whistling

 

[A.R.$]

Favorability polling doesn’t equal votes, if that were true, Bernie would be running away with this.

Biden isn’t a worse candidate than Hillary, it’s clear both sexism and disdain for her oppressed turnout, he has neither of those.

some of y’all want to frame this election as insurmountable simply because it looks like your favored candidate isn’t going to be the nominee, that’s stupid. Bernie and Biden both are risks, and both are people who can win if we turnout.

I didn’t just post favorability ratings. I also posted job approval numbers. Trump is getting close to having a 50 percent approval rating. For the majority of his presidency he been in the low 40s and even high 30s. His rating being in the high 40s suggests he is getting stronger not weaker. If you have evidence to suggest otherwise I am more than open to it. But just saying he now have a record doesn’t mean he is easer to beat.

As far as him being a worse candidate than Hillary we will see. This is something that can’t be proven until the general election starts. Btw I think Hillary was a awful candidate. However, I think Biden is weaker for the following reasons. HRC was unlikable to the general public but no one questioned if she could do the job. Trump is already attacking Biden on his mental fitness(the irony coming from that dumb piece of shyt). Biden also have scandals that is going to weigh down his campaign. Hillary was a extremely Disciplined politician. Biden is extremely gaff prone. It is going to stick out more in the general election.

Lastly,
I’m not framing the election as insurmountable because Bernie is losing. As you know Bernie wasn’t even my first choice. However, a lot of people are overlooking how weak Biden is just because they don’t like Bernie. I don’t think Trump is unbeatable. For an incumbent he is actually pretty weak. However, I don’t think Biden is the candidate that can take advantage of Trump weaknesses. I hope I am wrong.