2020 Democratic Primary Thread: Focus on House & Senate races

[Loose]

Who are the biden fans people in here are fighting with? Bernie supporters are going fukking nuts ,arguing with imaginary supporters, blaming the DNC for Bidens rise , calling black folks low information voters, praying biden die just . Thank god this shyt almost over

Bernie bros in here losing their shyt

Right wtf is going on

 

[King Static X]

Bernie bros in here losing their shyt

It's hilarious really!

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

The problem with most of your data points are that you're drawing conclusions for the general based on the Dem electorate. Just because someone votes for a different candidate in the primary doesn't mean they wont vote for them in general. Accept this basic logic or the conversation can go no further.

The vote blue no matter who folks aren't going to vote trump over Sanders. The biggest concern among moderates is defeating trump, any dem in the general can do that. Propping up Biden among boomer dems or black folks is a losing argument. Dems have less voters among the general electorate.



Trend since 2004
Republicans Independents Democrats
% % %
30 39 29

Source: Party Affiliation


Its the unreliable voters that need to be won. I.e. young voters, independents and latinos. And of course swing states

All of the following is from the exit poll you posted:

Bernie overwhelmingly takes the youth vote by a larger margin than any dem on any demographic including Biden and black people. (60% for 18-29, 41% from 30-44)

Bernie won independents 34% to Biden's 26%

And he won the largely untapped Latino vote 35% to 26%

Bernie beats Trump

independents/no affiliation can vote in dem primaries, so with no party affiliation data, we don't know who's voting what - where did you get your stat about independents or is that polling?

and i'm seeing a different mix re voter registration/support

Spoiler

Gallup[edit]
As of December 2019, Gallup polling found that 28% of Americans identified as Democrat, 28% identified as Republican, and 41% as Independent.[3] Additionally, polling showed that 43% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 45% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents are asked "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"[3]

In 2018, the number of competitive states dropped down to 10, the lowest number since 2008. From 2017 to 2018, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania moved from competitive to lean Democratic, while West Virginia, Louisiana, and Indiana moved from competitive to lean Republican, and Nebraska moved from lean Republican to competitive.[4]

As of 2018, Massachusetts was the most Democratic state, with 56% of residents identifying as Democrat, while only 27% of residents identified as Republican. Wyoming was the most Republican state, with 59% of residents identifying as Republican, and only 25% of residents identifying as Democrat.[4]

Partisan lean of U.S. states according to Gallup polling[4]
Number of U.S. States
Year Solid Dem Lean Dem Competitive Lean GOP Solid GOP Net Dem
2018 14 8 10 5 13 +4

youth vote is unreliable, if bernie can't turn them out in higher #'s, which he hasn't, well i'm not counting on that in the general. latino turnout could be an issue, but that's where i think the right VP pick helps. biden did better with college educated suburban voters (a demo that fall into the swing vote) and white working class voters

Biden swept blue-collar whites in the two northern states most like Michigan: Minnesota (where Biden won non-college whites by 12 points) and Massachusetts (where he won them by 8 points).

(don't blame this on Liz because working class voters weren't her demo)

furthermore the obama relationship + bloomberg's money going toward ads create a formidable campaigning machine for the general. although i'd expect obama to campaign for, bernie he doesn't have the same relationship with obama, and bernie turned down bloomberg's support in the general. your boy is setting up a weaker campaign out the gate

nothing is pointing to bernie being better. even tho he indexes high in some segments, he might depress the registered dem vote overall

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

The decisions to not even bother seeking Clyburn's endorsement (Clyburn was always going to go with the most viable moderate but glad-handing him and showing some deference may have blunted Biden's margin of victory and weakened his case moving forward) and continuing with the descent into anti-establishment rhetoric and posturing instead of a unifying message coming out of his massive Nevada victory were fateful decisions, on par with Hillary not even bothering to campaign in the midwest in the general election. Just absolute political malpractice. A fukking shame.

Lol man wtf are you talking about? Kissing Clyburn’s ring would’ve done what exactly for Bernie?

“Showing him some deference” would’ve changed votes even though he would’ve endorsed Biden anyway?

You actually think voters would’ve said “Well, Clyburn endorsed Biden, but since Bernie said a nice thing or two about him I think I’ll vote for Bernie!”

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

This is worse. Hillary was legitimately sabotaged and cheated.

Some fukking irony here, I’ll tell you.

 

[Uno Venova]

Some fukking irony here, I’ll tell you.

How did I miss that

 

[R. Money]

Bernie supporters are going fukking nuts ,arguing with imaginary supporters, blaming the DNC for Bidens rise , calling black folks low information voters, praying biden die

None of this has actually happened in this thread. You're seeing things.

 

[Kenny West]

independents/no affiliation can vote in dem primaries, so with no party affiliation data, we don't know who's voting what - where did you get your stat about independents or is that polling?

I got it from the exit poll you posted

and i'm seeing a different mix re voter registration/support

Spoiler

Gallup[edit]
As of December 2019, Gallup polling found that 28% of Americans identified as Democrat, 28% identified as Republican, and 41% as Independent.[3] Additionally, polling showed that 43% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 45% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents are asked "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"[3]

In 2018, the number of competitive states dropped down to 10, the lowest number since 2008. From 2017 to 2018, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania moved from competitive to lean Democratic, while West Virginia, Louisiana, and Indiana moved from competitive to lean Republican, and Nebraska moved from lean Republican to competitive.[4]

As of 2018, Massachusetts was the most Democratic state, with 56% of residents identifying as Democrat, while only 27% of residents identified as Republican. Wyoming was the most Republican state, with 59% of residents identifying as Republican, and only 25% of residents identifying as Democrat.[4]

Partisan lean of U.S. states according to Gallup polling[4]
Number of U.S. States
Year Solid Dem Lean Dem Competitive Lean GOP Solid GOP Net Dem
2018 14 8 10 5 13 +4

Thats because you quoted an older article citing 2019 Gallup results and I posted the feb 2020 results directly from their site.

youth vote is unreliable, if bernie can't turn them out in higher #'s, which he hasn't, well i'm not counting on that in the general. latino turnout could be an issue, but that's where i think the right VP pick helps. biden did better with college educated suburban voters (a demo that fall into the swing vote) and white working class voters

White working class moderates are the only edge he has here. Suburban whites could go either way in the general.

(don't blame this on Liz because working class voters weren't her demo)

Its a 5 person race and she is splitting a portion of his vote, of course she is a factor.

Which is exactly why we dont take serious consideration to dem primary electorate when talking about the general

furthermore the obama relationship + bloomberg's money going toward ads create a formidable campaigning machine for the general. although i'd expect obama to campaign for, bernie he doesn't have the same relationship with obama, and bernie turned down bloomberg's support in the general. your boy is setting up a weaker campaign out the gate

Boy oh boy will black folks be thrilled when trump exposes former pro segregationist Joe Biden teaming up with avown racist Mike Bloomberg.

Seems like the perfect spot to drop the whole "record black unemployment."

Its hilarious that you follow this up with depressing voter turnout.

nothing is pointing to bernie being better. even tho he indexes high in some segments, he might depress the registered dem vote overall

What planet have you been on?

Bernie wouldnt depress shyt as he is the only candidate outside Trump with an excited base. He won liberals over Biden by far and Biden was worst among candidates you agree on issues for. Per the exit poll you posted

Biden is by far the most likely to depress dem turnout, especially among progressives. "Vote Blue No Matter Who" was not a mantra made toward centrist democrats.

Can you please stop insulting my intelligence?

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

I got it from the exit poll you posted 



Thats because you quoted an older article citing 2019 Gallup results and I posted the feb 2020 results directly from their site.



White working class moderates are the only edge he has here. Suburban whites could go either way in the general.



Its a 5 person race and she is splitting a portion of his vote, of course she is a factor.

Which is exactly why we dont take serious consideration to dem electorate when talking about the general


Boy oh boy will black folks be thrilled when trump exposes former pro segregationist Joe Biden teaming up with avown racist Mike Bloomberg.

Seems like the perfect spot to drop the whole "record black unemployment."



What planet have you been on?

Bernie wouldnt depress shyt as he is the only candidate outside Trump with an excited base. He won liberals over Biden by far and Biden was worst among candidates you agree on issues for. Per the exit poll you posted

Biden is by far the most likely to depress dem turnout, especially among progressives. "Vote Blue No Matter Who" was not a mantra made toward centrist democrats.

Can you please stop insulting my intelligence?

You’ve insulted mine with nothing but conjecture. Bernie isn’t turning out the youth he said he would, despite 15000 person rallies, he’s not winning two key demos, one of which he staked his claim on, Biden is a competitive candidate for winning back the Midwest, and he understands the political machine, something y’all are lamenting about bernie not being better at in the HQ thread.

if progressives want to cry and stay home while letting trump continue to stack courts and suppress votes so that progressive legislation and leaders face even more obstacles in the coming years, please be my guest.

and yes, we can stop this conversation because as it seems, Bernie will not make the final dance to prove any of this

 

[Uno]

Also, don't vote for this guy because he might have dementia isn't a winning argument in 2020.

if they say it on national tv it might work but saying on message boards, Reddit and social media does not

 

[the cac mamba]

poor showing from bernie bros in here

but at least this primary will be over by april, and not june like last time should be plenty of time for them to get over it

imagine feeling passionate about what bernie advocates, but allowing mitch mcconnel and donald trump to nominate 1-2 more supreme court justices to ensure it never happens

 

[R. Money]

if progressives want to cry and stay home while letting trump continue to stack courts and suppress votes so that progressive legislation and leaders face even more obstacles in the coming years, please be my guest.

A Biden spokesperson just went on national TV and said she won't support a non-Biden candidate.

 

[A.R.$]

Exactly. Or even blasted the SC airwaves with ads featuring this:



Bernie was sitting on a damn warchest. Mitigate the damage!

Some people on his campaign(not all) are stubborn and arrogant. It is unacceptable that he didn’t ask Him to endorse him. I doubt that he would of did but you have to at least try. That was political negligence

 

[Kenny West]

You’ve insulted mine with nothing but conjecture. Bernie isn’t turning out the youth he said he would, despite 15000 person rallies, he’s not winning two key demos, one of which he staked his claim on, Biden is a competitive candidate for winning back the Midwest, and he understands the political machine, something y’all are lamenting about bernie not being better at in the HQ thread.

if progressives want to cry and stay home while letting trump continue to stack courts and suppress votes so that progressive legislation and leaders face even more obstacles in the coming years, please be my guest.

and yes, we can stop this conversation because as it seems, Bernie will not make the final dance to prove any of this

This isnt how you build a coalition Dora

I made my points entirely from sources you posted.

"Conjecture"

Somebody told me posters in HL were smart, honest debaters looking like TLR with a Nap greenlight over here

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

if they say it on national tv it might work but saying on message boards, Reddit and social media does not

Nah, it’s the opposite, that flies with young people online who seem to think dementia is funny and should be laughed at, mocked or hurled at folks with no evidence. Boomers, still the biggest voting age population, won’t find that tasteful at all as they’re aging into the territory where they could start seeing cognitive decline.