If all goes well, DXY should close under the 100 week EMA tomorrow evening for the first time since September 2021. Plus its deep below the ichimoku cloud with like 5 straight red candles. Could've been more since that green one looks kinda small but that was what triggered the reversal. Still need the 20 week EMA to cross under but things are looking optimistic, especially if next week is red or if it bounces up and rejects the 100 EMA. Lets say it slowly declines and EMAs cross in late May or early June since there's a decent space between the two unless something crazy happens and it crosses sooner. Then we can possibly see a bull run towards the rest of the year. May 3 is next interest rate decision so we got about 2 and a half weeks or so. I'm hearing people saying there won't even be a rate hike then which is extremely bullish. Who knows what they decide or how badly the banks may get affected if they do hike rates. Think I heard the commercial side isn't doing too well, especially commercial mortgages. Actually just looked and saw this guy post about it.
Lot of empty office buildings and companies unable to afford their loans.
www.bisnow.com
Nearly 39 billion at risk. Looks ugly. Might see some more banks going down soon if any are greatly affected by this and looks like the regional banks have large exposure to CRE.
J.P. Morgan predicts about 21% of CMBS loans associated with office properties are going to default, equal to nearly $39B, assuming office occupancies don't recover from their pandemic-era slump.
Under that scenario, the loss rate for loan holders would be 8.6%. That rate would mean about $38B in losses for the banking sector and $16B for life insurance companies.
“The cumulative losses would be manageable ... but would impact a sector that is already under pressure from the outflow of deposits,” the company said in its research report.
U.S. regional banks have large loan exposure in CRE, holding about 70% of outstanding commercial property debt, according to Bank of America data reported by Yahoo Finance.
Under more severe scenarios, in which office occupancies permanently shrink by 20 and 30 percentage points, J.P. Morgan estimates default rates would reach 28% and 35%, respectively.
J.P. Morgan estimates that commercial mortgage-backed securities account for 22%, or $549B, of CRE loans, not counting multifamily. Of that, $185B is exposed to office properties.
Lot of empty office buildings and companies unable to afford their loans.
Nearly $39B In CMBS Office Loans Will Default, J.P. Morgan Predicts
The bank's prediction assumes that office occupancies don't recover from their slump.
www.bisnow.com
Nearly 39 billion at risk. Looks ugly. Might see some more banks going down soon if any are greatly affected by this and looks like the regional banks have large exposure to CRE.
J.P. Morgan predicts about 21% of CMBS loans associated with office properties are going to default, equal to nearly $39B, assuming office occupancies don't recover from their pandemic-era slump.
Under that scenario, the loss rate for loan holders would be 8.6%. That rate would mean about $38B in losses for the banking sector and $16B for life insurance companies.
“The cumulative losses would be manageable ... but would impact a sector that is already under pressure from the outflow of deposits,” the company said in its research report.
U.S. regional banks have large loan exposure in CRE, holding about 70% of outstanding commercial property debt, according to Bank of America data reported by Yahoo Finance.
Under more severe scenarios, in which office occupancies permanently shrink by 20 and 30 percentage points, J.P. Morgan estimates default rates would reach 28% and 35%, respectively.
J.P. Morgan estimates that commercial mortgage-backed securities account for 22%, or $549B, of CRE loans, not counting multifamily. Of that, $185B is exposed to office properties.
wanted to buy nomad but my gut saying wait and see til next week...line in the red and MC too low right now...Also token sniffer says it's not good buy right now...
All that is youtube content. In one ear out the other.