1/18
Ethan Mollick
I have now had multiple instances where professors have told me that they are pretty sure that o1 found something novel in their field, but that the results are technical, non-obvious and complex enough that they can't be sure without considerable checking. An interesting problem.
2/18
Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social
To be clear, these aren’t earth-shattering discoveries. You can’t ask for “a cure for cancer” or “a new form of physics” and get anything real. These are narrow problems in fields like economics and computer science, and require experts to identify and frame them.
3/18
Drew Curtis @drewcurtis.bsky.social
still important
4/18
猫好きな人 @valoisdubins.bsky.social
What sorts of fields?
5/18
Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social
economics and computer science
6/18
猫好きな人 @valoisdubins.bsky.social
Are these theoretical innovations? Or analyses of data?
7/18
jalex32x.bsky.social @jalex32x.bsky.social
What is the significance of finding something novel independent of it being something important? My Roomba can reach places I don’t bother to vacuum. Can o1 solve alpha fold-like problems?
8/18
Lukas Bergstrom @lukas.blue
That's interesting, because my heuristic for when AI is useful is whenever generating an answer is expensive and checking it is easy.
9/18
Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social
It was until o1
10/18
Lukas Bergstrom @lukas.blue
I'm not sure o1's accuracy has improved enough to make the ROI positive for expensive-to-check answers. If it has, that would be an ever bigger deal than o1's ability to tackle bigger, harder problems.
11/18
thebaldcoder.bsky.social @thebaldcoder.bsky.social
Regardless of using AI or not I'd expect you to check the answer or in software parlance "debug it". AI is just saving you the first step of generating the answer from scratch: you near instantly have something to work with. That alone is massive.
12/18
kiteet.bsky.social @kiteet.bsky.social
Really the only way to verify anything is to do tests with specific samples under specific circumstances. I haven't yet gotten useful new ideas for specific problems. An useful AI would maybe be capable of mathematical simulation coupled with real world data it could request. We're still quite far..
13/18
kiteet.bsky.social @kiteet.bsky.social
I've been pestering it about questions related to ultra low temperature physics (I work at a dilution refrigerator company), and it's kind of obvious that no amount of intelligence can make noteworthy discoveries. The required materials properties data does not exist or is specific to situation.1/2
14/18
Singularity's Bounty e/
@catblanketflower.yuwakisa.com
I guess we all sort of assumed that when AI starts beating the curse of dimensionality and branching out into latent space, it would just naturally find ASI
But once it passes a certain boundary, how do we know it's not a grand hallucination?
Verifying ASI may take more time than the Universe has
15/18
thebaldcoder.bsky.social @thebaldcoder.bsky.social
Can a pig verify Einstein's theory of relativity? Neither will humanity be able to verify a theory developed by an ASI (which it will inevitably act upon). Which is why the so-called 'doomers' are right to be concerned by all this.
16/18
Singularity's Bounty e/
@catblanketflower.yuwakisa.com
I think that's a little stark ;) Certainly will expand the boundary of human-understandable knowledge, but there may be some gains that will be indecipherable for a while
Also don't neglect the effect of AI tutoring "lifting" Mankind into better understanding of things
It's just going to be weird
17/18
Mikhail Kats @mickeykats.bsky.social
I've tried it on a number of exam problems in my graduate class and sometimes it does great and other times it makes subtle mistakes
Still very useful, but I doubt it's ready to find novel things in the field.
I do think it'll get closer to that when it can use code interpreter
18/18
Gmack @gmac65.bsky.social
Sounds like the stuff progress is made of.
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