Who should win NFL awards for 2016? Here's a guide
Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers could end up being the top MVP vote-getters. The order is the only question. ESPN Illustration
10:25 AM ET
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Bill BarnwellESPN Staff Writer
Offensive Player of the Year and Most Valuable Player
Top candidates: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots;
Derek Carr, QB, Raiders; Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys; David Johnson, RB, Cardinals;
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers; Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons
One of these six players will be my MVP, so the Offensive Player of the Year category here stands, as usual, as basically a runner-up trophy. (
Cam Newton was a rare exception to this last year, and if the NFL's MVP award winner continues to win Offensive Player of the Year, I'll start changing the way I think about this award.) Let's start with this group of six and see who we end up with by process of elimination.
Let's start with the running backs. Bell misses out here because he was gone for three games and his numbers don't compare; he has arguably been better than Zeke or Johnson on a per-game basis, but this is about cumulative impact, and missing games counts against a player. He's 190 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns short of Johnson's numbers. Elliott sat out in Week 17, which would have made it harder to gauge him versus Johnson, but Johnson promptly suffered a knee injury in the first quarter of Arizona's season finale that thankfully does not appear to be as serious as it seemed at first glance.
I
compared Elliott to Johnson in December, pointing out how Johnson's work as a receiver makes up the difference between the two as a runner. Here are the updated numbers comparing the two through the end of the regular season (and while Zeke sat out the final game, Johnson missed most of it, too):
Matthew Stafford in each category, and Stafford is not receiving much MVP support. (
Not anymore, at least.) It's also tough to build the case around Carr coming up with big moments in the clutch when he had his worst game of the season against the Chiefs in that critical "Thursday Night Football" matchup in Week 14. Carr was also pressured on just 19 percent of his dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in football. He had an excellent season, but it's hard to really make a case that he's the best of these four quarterbacks.
The next person to remove from the list is tougher. Brady's candidacy is hardly anything surprising, but he has the most obvious flaw to overcome, having missed a full quarter of the season thanks to his suspension. As a result, he's way behind in terms of volume; Rodgers has thrown 178 more passes than Brady and produced 874 additional yards along with 12 more touchdowns. Brady is even further behind Ryan, who has 1,390 additional passing yards and 10 more touchdowns.
Instead, the argument for Brady has to revolve around the idea that he's been better on a snap-by-snap basis than the other quarterbacks. It's true that he has protected the football, throwing 28 touchdowns and just two picks, the best touchdown-interception ratio in league history, but that stat seems less impressive when you remember Brady is breaking a record held by Nick Foles. Brady's 0.5 percent interception rate is also great, but the difference between his interception total and that of Rodgers (seven) over a 610-pass season is four picks. Is that really enough to make up the gap between Brady and the, um, bunch?
toughest schedule of opposing defenses. Patriots fans may want to cling to the game-losing pick-two Ryan threw against the Chiefs, but there's more to quarterback play than avoiding interceptions. Brady has been brilliant, but Ryan has been more efficient, even while Julio Jones was on the sideline.
As for Rodgers, while there may be voters who see the future Hall of Famer putting the Packers on his back with his "run the table" comment and subsequent brilliant form, Ryan has been every bit as good over the same time frame. The Packers started their six-game winning streak that gave them the NFC North title in Week 12. Atlanta went 5-1 over that same stretch. Here's how Ryan and Rodgers performed over that span:
quietly have one of the best offenses in recent memory, including what is likely the best first-down offense in NFL history. Nobody in the league has been better at getting chunks of yardage than Ryan, who has enjoyed playing behind the only line in football to make all 80 starts uninterrupted this season. The voters may fall for two of the game's biggest icons, but the evidence -- all apologies to the Cowboys' offensive line -- suggests that Ryan is the clear choice for 2016 MVP. I'll throw Rodgers a trophy for his furious end to the campaign.
Offensive Player of the Year winner: Aaron Rodgers
Most Valuable Player winner: Matt Ryan
It pisses me off, if someone thinks Brady is GOAT no problem, but using rings as the reason is just stupid that's like saying Russell is basketball GOAT 
