Who will run in the 2024 Democratic Primary?

[NZA]

a blowout in america is based on states. i wish it were the popular vote, but that just isnt how this ridiculous country does it. if you are flipping your opponent's states while keeping yours, you are blowing them out.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

Minorities being treated like a monolith is how the democrats are trying to fukk things up.

Whether it be LatinX trash messaging or assuming that second or third gen immigrants will vote like their their first generation family members. Complacency has become the norm and its being exploited. Lost in that presidential voting gap is the sunken cost of throwing all that weight behind pro-immigration stuff like it wouldn't just alienate the shyt out of people who were directly effected. Those votes don't just trend a certain way without some sort of action or reaction occurring. Examining why is crucial. These groups/blocks don't even need to flip entirely across a margin either - if suddenly 5% of x voters vote red, or 10% say that they won't show up, then you've just lost a district.

That's what's being hammered on here so "7 million" isn't some big number at all considering where those important voters lie.

I really just don't think people understand how much people hate the democrats more than they like Trump.

I mean it should be telling if they had this kind of turnout but the fizz for a recount for Trump's campaign individually died in 3 weeks

even with the missteps, biden is reported to have gotten about 66% of the latino vote, which is the norm and quite honestly isn't going to grown much given how multiple groups of latinos can absorb into whiteness and/or simply don't align to left politics.

as for the bolded, that's not true. people fukking like trump, there are swing voters and folks who were non participants who just like the guy. if people hated dems obama's margins would've been lower, clinton would've outright lost (yes, people hated her + sexism and she still won the popular vote, it was her poor campaigning that lost WI/MI/PA, not a hate for dems), i'm not sure why you can't credit how much trump supporters love trump. the rest of the R's just fall in line with whatever R is in charge, mainline R's have nothing to gain by carrying on for a recount. but trump supporters have given him $200M, still whine about a recount and illegitimate election and don't accept biden as president. and r's looking for his blessing in 2024 have also backed him.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

a blowout in america is based on states. i wish it were the popular vote, but that just isnt how this ridiculous country does it. if you are flipping your opponent's states while keeping yours, you are blowing them out.

by either account, biden handily won against trump, getting into the margin of victory in fukking swing states - the places where it's supposed to be competitive - as a way to discredit a 306 to 232 EC victory is comedy. no one expected fukking biden to be winning AZ and GA, but he did, yet gets no credit because he only won the trending red retard state of WI by 1% and pro-fracking PA by 2%?

 

[42 Monks]

if you can't blow out trump then how will it get any easier? the man straight up tells people not to use mail in voting in a pandemic.... he can't be the world's biggest idiot and some social prodigy at the same time.

maybe we just suck as a party

even with the missteps, biden is reported to have gotten about 66% of the latino vote, which is the norm and quite honestly isn't going to grown much given how multiple groups of latinos can absorb into whiteness and/or simply don't align to left politics.

as for the bolded, that's not true. people fukking like trump, there are swing voters and folks who were non participants who just like the guy. if people hated dems obama's margins would've been lower, clinton would've outright lost (yes, people hated her + sexism and she still won the popular vote, it was her poor campaigning that lost WI/MI/PA, not a hate for dems), i'm not sure why you can't credit how much trump supporters love trump. the rest of the R's just fall in line with whatever R is in charge, mainline R's have nothing to gain by carrying on for a recount. but trump supporters have given him $200M, still whine about a recount and illegitimate election and don't accept biden as president. and r's looking for his blessing in 2024 have also backed him.

I think it is - and instead of talking about those voters people would rather, for whatever reason, believe that the million maga march or some rally goer is what the average republican voter looks like. its not the case at all lol

Its setting us up to fail imo

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

if you can't blow out trump then how will it get any easier? the man straight up tells people not to use mail in voting in a pandemic.... he can't be the world's biggest idiot and some social prodigy at the same time.

maybe we just suck as a party

I think it is - and instead of talking about those voters people would rather, for whatever reason, believe that the million maga march or some rally goer is what the average republican voter looks like. its not the case at all lol

Its setting us up to fail imo

let try this simply again - trump was an incumbent + MAGA + R's who vote R...where in that equation is the point where dems are supposed to blow him out (as if flipping GA and AZ and winning 306 electoral votes isn't a blow out). and telling them not to use mail in brought them to the polls in person...again, where's the opportunity for a blowout? he didn't tell them not to vote

no one says MAGA is the average republican voter, the average republican is voting red no matter who. the only set up to fail is dems thinking that won't be true. you've literally not named one segment or opening in which dems were supposed to win R voters...i only engaged you as i thought your gripe with dems was their loss of blue collar workers, you're literally expecting them to overindex in areas they're still doing fine in or never had a shot with

 

[NZA]

by either account, biden handily won against trump, getting into the margin of victory in fukking swing states - the places where it's supposed to be competitive - as a way to discredit a 306 to 232 EC victory is comedy. no one expected fukking biden to be winning AZ and GA, but he did, yet gets no credit because he only won the trending red retard state of WI by 1% and pro-fracking PA by 2%?

i actually agree, but nobody in america is trained to see it that way. this is also why i think people need to stop talking about "mandates". nobody in red state america cares about how or why you won. just do what you can get away with because they fukking hate you no matter what. republicans already know this, dems are for some strange reason, really tied to nostalgia and fantasy which is really ironic.

 

[acri1]

bringing up the popular vote very much matters, 7M more people support biden than trump, dismissing the desire of the people simply because we have an electoral system that can makes no sense. no one would care about 1-3% wins in WI or PA without our stupid EC.

and acting like this election was supposed to be a blowout is even more dishonest. only the anti trump echo chamber really believed biden was going to simply wallop an incumbent who hadn't lost a step with his supporters, people and states who didn't give AF about covid, and that he'd actually peel off R's. R's vote R...maybe yall underestimate trump's popularity, he clearly turned out even more voters for him than in 2016. he's not as hated as yall would like to think, had that been an R people were less passionate about, Biden's margins would be larger.

You have to look at the world as it is, not as you'd like it to be. The fact is we're stuck with our terrible EC system.

Nobody is arguing that Trump is more popular then Biden, but the fact of the matter is that if a few hundred thousand people swung the other way Trump would've won. That's very close by the standards of the US system.

 

[the cac mamba]

If Kamala is smart she doesn't run. .

the first female VP in american history shouldnt run?

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

You have to look at the world as it is, not as you'd like it to be. The fact is we're stuck with our terrible EC system.

Nobody is arguing that Trump is more popular then Biden, but the fact of the matter is that if a few hundred thousand people swung the other way Trump would've won. That's very close by the standards of the US system.

that was always the truth of this election, like i said, it was only those who deal in anti trumpism, blind optimists and those without an understanding of elections who expected a "blowout".

which i'm still confused on as like i said, if you look at EC count, popular vote and flipped states, all say it's a blowout. R's aren't shrugging off Biden winning AZ and GA because it was only by less than 1%, just like dems need to quit crying about PA and WI being one by 1-2%, the point is getting the win by any margin necessary, he did.

 

[NZA]

as for kamala, just being VP for 4 years might raise her status. gotta wait and see. al gore wasnt much but after 8 years as VP, it took a supreme court robbery to keep him from winning the race

 

[acri1]

that was always the truth of this election, like i said, it was only those who deal in anti trumpism, blind optimists and those without an understanding of elections who expected a "blowout".

which i'm still confused on as like i said, if you look at EC count, popular vote and flipped states, all say it's a blowout. R's aren't shrugging off Biden winning AZ and GA because it was only by less than 1%, just like dems need to quit crying about PA and WI being one by 1-2%, the point is getting the win by any margin necessary, he did.

It's still a bad look if Dems could only beat the WOAT (or at least arguably WOAT) president in recent history by a tiny margin in swing states.

Now I don't necessarily think it's really the party's fault, the American electorate is generally stupid/racist. But even so, Dems should worry about the fact that a slightly less unpopular R could easily flip the EC back by running somebody that's just slightly less despised than Cheeto.

as for kamala, just being VP for 4 years might raise her status. gotta wait and see. al gore wasnt much but after 8 years as VP, it took a supreme court robbery to keep him from winning the race

We'll have to see. I do worry though that sexism will hurt her similar to how it did Hillary (I'm not the biggest Clinton fan, but sexism was a factor in her loss IMO).

 

[AquaCityBoy]

Biden only barely won in the swing states he won, a couple percent more and Trump would've got four more yars. They were ALL by very thin margins.

Wow, it's almost as if they're called swing states for a reason.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

It's still a bad look if Dems could only beat the WOAT (or at least arguably WOAT) president in recent history by a tiny margin in swing states.

Now I don't necessarily think it's really the party's fault, the American electorate is generally stupid/racist. But even so, Dems should worry about the fact that a slightly less unpopular R could easily flip the EC back by running somebody that's just slightly less despised than Cheeto.




We'll have to see. I do worry though that sexism will hurt her similar to how it did Hillary (I'm not the biggest Clinton fan, but sexism was a factor in her loss IMO).

dems ran up against a rethug with a cult following. trump may have not been popular with mainline republicans, but they voted for him because that's what they do, yet he's wildly popular with his base. had republican run a "more popular" candidate, i.e. a romney type traditional R's love, someone who wouldn't garner the same level of turnout/passion from MAGAs/tea party R's, dem's would've won bigger.

yall underestimate the effect Trump's popularity on the fringe plays in his ability to put up #'s. the core of the base is always there, he brought in fringe votes, disaffected whites, etc, that puts the party over the top. it's the only reason people halfway consider a possible trump 2024 run, the party needs the cohort he amassed

 

[intra vires]

A healthy Biden who brought stability to the country and has tangible accomplishments would be a strong candidate, so unless there's an issue with his health I'd expect him to run again.

Primarying a presidential incumbent shows weakness within the party and usually doesn't lead to good electoral outcomes. We don't know if the same would be true for a pseudo-incumbent since it's never really been done. However, as FAH1223 stated, if Biden admin has high approval ratings, then that bodes well for Harris if she runs in his place.

I think it's different to challenge the VP in a primary created by POTUS's health issues than would be to challenge the VP in a primary created by term-limits. I fully expect the establishment to rally around Harris if Biden can't run in 2024.

Spoiler: Rationale

What I posted before still applies. Harris is very good at rallying around professional womanhood when she's attacked for bullshyt reasons (e.g. "too ambitious"). That's something that wasn't true about Hillary Clinton. By 2024, Harris will be more "qualified" to be POTUS than any other eligible individual serving in government other than Biden. So what serious male politician is going to want to take that shot? If you're not washed then you'll have a better shot down the road. We also saw how female politicians, like Gillibrand and Warren, gave Clinton a clear path to run unchallenged as the "female candidate" in 2016. While I thought that was a mistake, Harris is a less divisive figure so I think that further decreases the likelihood of it happening this time.

 

[Red Shield]

First part is the only realistic thing I see. These idiots always vote for the safest option. You need people with their backs against the wall, like the great depression, to vote for a wildcard.

I think the second part of that is more realistic then the first.

But knowing the dnc.. they'll probably push kamala even if they flub the next four years