We the A side over here BUD... thank you Al Haymon... Danny Garcia v Errol Spence Fox PPV Dec 5th

What Happens??

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PBC Boxing Betting Picks & Predictions: Our Favorite Prop Bets for Errol Spence vs. Danny Garcia

Best Boxing Bets: Can Danny Garcia Upset Errol Spence?

My pick is at the top. I went with Garcia but I do think Spence could win by decision

Raheem Palmer: Danny Garcia ML
With Spence opening as the heavy minus-500 betting favorite, the odds for this fight paint an interesting picture — but I’m not buying it.

If this fight happened 14 months ago, it would likely be seen as a foregone conclusion Spence would successfully defend his WBC and IBF welterweight titles against Garcia.

Spence (26-0, 21 KO) is the cream of the crop in the welterweight division and after his 2019 split decision win over Shawn Porter in their unification match, the boxing world appeared to be his oyster.

Things may have changed since then.

Just three weeks after Spence’s win over Porter, he was involved in a horrific single-car accident in which his Ferrari flipped multiple times and ejected through the windshield. Although Spence survived and suffered no broken bones, he ended up with broken teeth, facial lacerations, a twisted ankle and a bruised knee.

Many were left wondering if he’d ever fight again let alone be the same fighter.

Nonetheless, Spence returns to the ring against two-division world champion, who is the exact opposite of a tune-up opponent. Garcia (38-2, 21 KOs) has seen his stock take a hit in recent years, with gifted decisions over Lamont Peterson, and close losses against Keith Thurman in 2017 and Porter in 2018.

If you’re like me, you believe boxers lose a piece of themselves in every fight. So what will a car wreck do to a fighter’s reflexes, strength, ability to take a punch, mobility and overall well-being (among other things)? Spence spoke at length about wanting to quit boxing because the road back from his injuries was so challenging. This has to weigh heavily when handicapping this fight.

The closest historical comparison for Spence is lightweight prospect Felix Verdejo, who was in a motorcycle accident in 2016 and suffered injuries to his head, hand and leg that kept him out of the ring for two years before suffering a 10th-round TKO to Antonio Lozada Jr.

Garcia has a history of rising to the occasion in big fights. He won bouts as a sizable underdog, stopping Amir Khan in four rounds in 2012 and triumphing via unanimous decision over Lucas Matthysse in 2013. He’s proven to have a sturdy chin and devastating left hook that can stop anyone in their tracks.

His one-punch knockout power hasn’t been as effective at 147 pounds as it was at 140 pounds, but Thurman has said Garcia is the biggest puncher he’s faced throughout his career.

If there’s an Achilles’ heel for Garcia in this matchup, it’s his lack of work rate. In his last two fights against Ivan Redkach and Adrian Granados, he averaged 47 and 47.1 punches per round — well below the welterweight average of 56.8.

Spence, on the other hand, has averaged 62 and 90.1 punches per round in fights against Shawn Porter and Mikey Garcia. There’s real danger in Garcia being outworked, as Spence could control this fight with his jab, but he’s also the more technical fighter and one of the best body punchers in the sport.

Spence leaves himself open at times, though, and with Garcia’s great timing and counterpunching ability, this is an intriguing matchup that feels like a closer fight than the odds suggest. I personally see this as a 50-50 fight, which makes +350 on Danny Garcia a positive, expected value proposition.

I’ll be looking to play Garcia at +350 or better (William Hill currently has the best line), however, with these odds, there is an opportunity to hedge this play.

If Spence is able to overcome the accident as well as the 14-month layoff, his most likely path to winning is a 12-round decision, as Garcia’s chin and lack of punishment in previous fights makes a stoppage unlikely. If you’re interested in hedging this, you can play Spence by decision at -138 and still maintain a plus money wager on Garcia +350 or better.

The Pick: Garcia ML (+350)
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((ReFleXioN)) EteRNaL

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Conscious Pilot said:
Same bro same... for fukkery purposes, I kinda want Danny to pull off the huge upset. 147 would be in a crazy clusterfukk...
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Hell nah breh. I'll never forgive the boxing gods if they don't give us Spence vs Crawford. This type of fight only comes along once in a generation. That's why I'm hoping Spence is the same guy. The sport needs this fight. If Spence ends up being a broken fighter it'll be heartbreaking :mjcry:


Bringing back memories of pwill getting in that crash. I Really thought Errol might be done :francis:


So to see him come back to a fight like this is wild. That's why I'm being optimistic. I don't believe his team would let him fight if something was off. Derrick James seems like he would walk away before he let Spence get in the ring like that.

I'm not even gonna think about that shyt. I'm not even trying to manifest that negative energy into the universe :sadcam:


We gonna get a great fight tomorrow. And Spence will be better than ever. Just believe it :ufdup:
 
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LauderdaleBoss said:
One more day before Swift bodies this nikka. :ohlawd:
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ℒℴѵℯJay ELECTUA

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Conscious Pilot said:
Well be bold as a Lion and let’s hear it!?
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feel out for two rounds, spence dictates it but not with real dominance. garcia starts to land and catches him, then i feel spence will find it difficult to shake it off with me seeing a ref jumping in..
i'm just going by with this car accident/injury.
 
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