I posted this in another thread, but thought it was interesting enough to share. Research any National Championship team, and you'll find two common traits: (1) a good to great QB and (2) predominantly upperclassmen starters. In 2016, Texas signed 28 players as part of the nation's 11th rated class, hoping those players would anchor dynamic teams in 2018 and 2019. Here are the results from that 28-player class:
12 Transferred
* Jordan Elliott
* Chris Daniels
* Erick Fowler
* Peyton Aucoin
* R. Hemphill-Mapps
* Jean Delance
* Marcel Southall
* Davion Curtis
* Eric Cuffee
* Kyle Porter
* Shane Buechele
* J.P. Urquidez
2 Medically Retired
* Patrick Hudson
* Andrew Fitzgerald
1 Was Dismissed from the Team
* DeMarco Boyd
1 Left Early for the NFL
* Lil'Jordan Humphrey
7 Reserves
* Donovan Duvernay (0 starts)
* Christmas-Giles (0)
* Tope Imade (0)
* Gerald Wilbon (1)
* Denzel Okafor (5)
* Chris Brown (8)
* Jeffery McCulloch (10)
5 Starters
* Malcolm Roach (18 starts)
* Devin Duvernay (27)
* Collin Johnson (28)
* Brandon Jones (31)
* Zach Shackleford (39)
Out of 28 signees, we got 6 starters (LJH, Roach, Duvernay, Jones, CJ, Shack) and 5 playable reserves (Buechele, Brown, McCulloch, Okafor, Wilbon). Seriously, I don't think you could dream up a more nightmare recruiting scenario than the one that played out with that class. Not to give coaching a pass (b/c coaching is our #1 issue), but this team is in a much better place if the hit rate had been just average for that class. You can't get 5 starters from a recruiting class and succeed in their upperclassmen years.
Imagine this team if just Boyd, Hudson, Fowler, Elliott, and Christmas-Giles had met just 70-80% of expectations when they signed. 70-80% of expectations would have put them all at Honorable Mention to 1st Team All Big 12 quality, and a draft position of 3rd - 7th round. I bet that right there is worth a win last year and 2-3 wins this year. If we have veteran depth, then we don't have to turn to RS freshmen and true sophomores when the injury bug bit this season. And, some guys who weren't ready to start would have been backing the seniors up, rather than starting in their place.
And what makes what happened to that class all the worse, the 2017 class was Herman's transition class. So, the talent level (as almost always happens with a new hire) fell off precipitously. Here are the results from that 18-player, 31st ranked class:
3 Transferred
* Jordan Pouncy
* Toneil Carter
* Joshua Rowland
1 Did Not Qualify
* Damion Miller
1 After Two Years b/c he was a JUCO Signee
* Gary Johnson
8 Reserves
* Jamari Chisolm (0 career starts)
* Max Cummins (0)
* Marquez Bimage (0)
* Reese Leitao (0)
* Montrell Estell (2)
* Josh Thompson (3)
* Daniel Young (5)
* Kobe Boyce (5)
5 Starters
* Ta'Quon Graham (10 career starts)
* Cade Brewer (11)
* Sam Cosmi (23)
* Derek Kerstetter (25)
* Sam Ehlinger (30)
So from the two classes that were supposed to have been the backbone of the 2018-20 teams, we got 26 busts, 12 starters (2 of which were gone early due to JUCO/NFL) and 8 key reserves. That's a recipe for a whole lot of suckage.