Trump’s Next Coup Attempt has Already Begun

[Dusty Bake Activate]

1. Yeah, I was waiting for strong persuasive arguments showing that the current state of administrative/election law was under threat and it never came. The election law part of the essay showed that Trump could not bully local and state Republican's to the point necessary to undermine election results. And his subsequent actions while relevant lead me to conclude he would likely fail again.

In addition, the "independent state legislature doctrine" while dangerous in theory, is also from a legal standpoint laughably weak (like most of Trump's team's arguments) and likely won't gain support from the USSC even with the current conservative majority.

But, that is not to excuse or justify the actions taken by Trump or imply that the status quo is ideal, however the evidence provided here does not warrant the strong notion that democracy is at great risk byway of Trump's legal arguments.

2. Douthat's criticism lines up with mine:

One year later, Douthat looked back. In scores of lawsuits, “a variety of conservative lawyers delivered laughable arguments to skeptical judges and were ultimately swatted down,” he wrote, and state election officials warded off Trump’s corrupt demands. My own article, Douthat wrote, had anticipated what Trump tried to do. “But at every level he was rebuffed, often embarrassingly, and by the end his plotting consisted of listening to charlatans and cranks proposing last-ditch ideas” that could never succeed.

Douthat also looked ahead, with guarded optimism, to the coming presidential election. There are risks of foul play, he wrote, but “Trump in 2024 will have none of the presidential powers, legal and practical, that he enjoyed in 2020 but failed to use effectively in any shape or form.” And “you can’t assess Trump’s potential to overturn an election from outside the Oval Office unless you acknowledge his inability to effectively employ the powers of that office when he had them.”

1. It seems strange that that would be your takeaway from the article to me because the entire thesis as I read it is that the waning days of Trump’s presidency were basically a dry run, and the things that kept democracy in place have been identified and are being strategically targeted now….

Brad Raffensberger in GA is being replaced with a Trump stooge. 7 Republican who are big lie advocates are running for Secretary of State (and will win) and 3 of those states are GA, PA, and MI. Michigan was one election board vote away from not certifying the election for Biden last cycle.

I am not as confident in the SCOTUS as you and I wouldn’t put it past Alito, Thomas, Barrett, Kavanaugh and them and at all to overturn state elections no matter how shytty their legal arguments are. The political right is basically post-democracy and post-principled policy now.

2. I think the article rebutted Douthat’s contention pretty well by laying out how Trump is in a better position now than he was then with the active replacement of secretaries of states and election officials in purple states with Republican state legislatures and governors. Ross Douthat is having a difficult time coming to terms with being the last of a dying breed of principled conservatives and his whole movement is authoritarians and goofies now.

 

[Payday23]

 

[the cac mamba]

Again you keep boiling this down to a political issue. Dems shouldn't have to neglect the advice of medical experts to win over stupid voters. COVID is a national health issue not a political issue. You should be grateful that we have a government thats still willing to dial back economic growth in favor of keeping people alive and safe. Instead you're arguing on behalf of billionaires who want to keep the economy in full swing to line their pockets in the middle of a fukking deadly pandemic. And at this point in the pandemic all Dems want is for ppl to wear masks and get vaccinated to prevent the economy from sliding again

yes, the dems shouldnt HAVE to. but they do

what the fukk is with the naivety? jesus christ

 

[88m3]

on point

 

[Json]

1. It seems strange that that would be your takeaway from the article to me because the entire thesis as I read it is that the waning days of Trump’s presidency were basically a dry run, and the things that kept democracy in place have been identified and are being strategically targeted now….

Brad Raffensberger in GA is being replaced with a Trump stooge. 7 Republican who are big lie advocates are running for Secretary of State (and will win) and 3 of those states are GA, PA, and MI. Michigan was one election board vote away from not certifying the election for Biden last cycle.

I am not as confident in the SCOTUS as you and I wouldn’t put it past Alito, Thomas, Barrett, Kavanaugh and them and at all to overturn state elections no matter how shytty their legal arguments are. The political right is basically post-democracy and post-principled policy now.

2. I think the article rebutted Douthat’s contention pretty well by laying out how Trump is in a better position now than he was then with the active replacement of secretaries of states and election officials in purple states with Republican state legislatures and governors. Ross Douthat is having a difficult time coming to terms with being the last of a dying breed of principled conservatives and his whole movement is authoritarians and goofies now.

SCOTUS has the options to not hear the case though.


I think the point you are missing is that the difference between a lot of authoritarian takeovers is they are in countries where it’s relatively easy to replace the people with cronies and control whole thing.


The US is so large, it’s like plugging a hole with 50 leaks.

The only reason Trump got so many judges was because of McConnell playing games with appointments. Not because of regular order.


With Trump no longer in power, he no longer has control over what happens in those 50 states. So he’s now working from outside which is a lot harder and is usually why governments are simply overthrown.

The danger from Trump/Fox is they are solidifying this narrative that any loss by a GOP is corrupt even when it doesn’t make sense. So a violent attack(aka White terrorism ) is probably becoming more normalized in our future .

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

SCOTUS has the options to not hear the case though.


I think the point you are missing is that the difference between a lot of authoritarian takeovers is they are in countries where it’s relatively easy to replace the people with cronies and control whole thing.


The US is so large, it’s like plugging a hole with 50 leaks.

The only reason Trump got so many judges was because of McConnell playing games with appointments. Not because of regular order.


With Trump no longer in power, he no longer has control over what happens in those 50 states. So he’s now working from outside which is a lot harder and is usually why governments are simply overthrown.

The danger from Trump/Fox is they are solidifying this narrative that any loss by a GOP is corrupt even when it doesn’t make sense. So a violent attack(aka White terrorism ) is probably becoming more normalized in our future .

Even if the Trump is not successful at stealing the election in 2024, we’ve reached a point where it is well within reason that Repub fascists in state houses, Secretary of State and election official positions refuse to authorize state elections that Trump lost leading to a constitutional crisis. Do you not think this is problem with real serious implications??? It seems some of y’all are like meh, Trump won’t be successful. Even if he’s not successful it’s still an ongoing attempt to subvert democracy that keeps trying to fine-tune, and seems will contribute after Trump is gone.

Your claim about “the point I’m missing” is just a generalized comparison and doesn’t even address the crux of what’s going on. The point is there is an active ongoing attempt to replace vote counters with right wing authoritarian extremists.

Trump failed in 2020 because of safeguards at a state level. The military and other federal government officials were never going to allow a coup that overturns a legitimate election. If you dispute enough states results using MAGA loyalists in state official positions ( which are being out in now) you can throw the election into a both sides/we don’t know who won situation. And as far as the states go, Trump will be in a better position in 2024 than he was in 2020.

 

[Json]

Even if the Trump is not successful at stealing the election in 2024, we’ve reached a point where it is well within reason that Repub fascists in state houses, Secretary of State and election official positions refuse to authorize state elections that Trump lost leading to a constitutional crisis. Do you not think this is problem with real serious implications??? It seems some of y’all are like meh, Trump won’t be successful. Even if he’s not successful it’s still an ongoing attempt to subvert democracy that keeps trying to fine-tune, and seems will contribute after Trump is gone.

Your claim about “the point I’m missing” is just a generalized comparison and doesn’t even address the crux of what’s going on. The point is there is an active ongoing attempt to replace vote counters with right wing authoritarian extremists.

Trump failed in 2020 because of safeguards at a state level. The military and other federal government officials were never going to allow a coup that overturns a legitimate election. If you dispute enough states results using MAGA loyalists in state official positions ( which are being out in now) you can throw the election into a both sides/we don’t know who won situation. And as far as the states go, Trump will be in a better position in 2024 than he was in 2020.

People aren’t downplaying the threat. Many just don’t believe Trump is central threat.

And also the need to centralize Trump weakens the call to arms cause if he doesn’t win, voters won’t go after the actual problems the Republicans are causing and get a situation like in Jersey where a progressive D still barely wins.

I straight up said the Republican loyalist are the actual threat cause they are being trained to no longer accept threat losses and this will lead to violence. We still never found the person who left those pipe bombs around DC.


Republicans already control a bunch of states and are just solidifying one party rule. So a bunch of MAGA hats isn’t going to set off unless they can win outside of those states which aren’t as likely.

The MAGA/Q types are still a minority within the Republican virus and aren’t a 100% lock to win.

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

People aren’t downplaying the threat. Many just don’t believe Trump is central threat.

And also the need to centralize Trump weakens the call to arms cause if he doesn’t win, voters won’t go after the actual problems the Republicans are causing and get a situation like in Jersey where a progressive D still barely wins.

I straight up said the Republican loyalist are the actual threat cause they are being trained to no longer accept threat losses and this will lead to violence. We still never found the person who left those pipe bombs around DC.


Republicans already control a bunch of states and are just solidifying one party rule. So a bunch of MAGA hats isn’t going to set off unless they can win outside of those states which aren’t as likely.

The MAGA/Q types are still a minority within the Republican virus and aren’t a 100% lock to win.

You’re not paying attention. The isn’t even about MAGA/Q types or even Trump, it’s about Republican in elected office who will refuse to certify legitimate elections. They are getting stronger and more firmly entrenched.

 

[Json]

You’re not paying attention. The isn’t even about MAGA/Q types or even Trump, it’s about Republican in elected office who will refuse to certify legitimate elections. They are getting stronger and more firmly entrenched.

Those Republicans are in Republican states where they already win. Thy aren’t going to not certify their own wins.

The reason Georgia scared them was because they aren’t used to losing there. So unless they don’t certify their own wins on the same ballot they won’t be able to pick and choose which ones they don’t like without explaining to a court why an election should be tossed.

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

Those Republicans are in Republican states where they already win. Thy aren’t going to not certify their own wins.

The reason Georgia scared them was because they aren’t used to losing there. So unless they don’t certify their own wins on the same ballot they won’t be able to pick and choose which ones they don’t like without explaining to a court why an election should be tossed.

No that is not true. The replacement of honesty election brokers with right wing authoritarian big lie adherents is happening in multiple purple states. There were attempted in Michigan (remember they were one Wayne county board vote away from not certifying Biden’s win in 2020), Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.

After the Republican take more gains in the 2022 midterms, Trump or whoever runs in 2024 will be better situated in the states than 2020.


“The coming midterm elections, meanwhile, could tip the balance further. Among the 36 states that will choose new governors in 2022, three are presidential battlegrounds—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—where Democratic governors until now have thwarted attempts by Republican legislatures to cancel Biden’s victory and rewrite election rules. Republican challengers in those states have pledged allegiance to the Big Lie, and the contests look to be competitive. In at least seven states, Big Lie Republicans have been vying for Trump’s endorsement for secretary of state, the office that will oversee the 2024 election. Trump has already endorsed three of them, in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan.”

 

[Json]

No that is not true. The replacement of honesty election brokers with right wing authoritarian big lie adherents is happening in multiple purple states. There were attempted in Michigan (remember they were one Wayne county board vote away from not certifying Biden’s win in 2020), Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.

After the Republican take more gains in the 2022 midterms, Trump or whoever runs in 2024 will be better situated in the states than 2020.


“The coming midterm elections, meanwhile, could tip the balance further. Among the 36 states that will choose new governors in 2022, three are presidential battlegrounds—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—where Democratic governors until now have thwarted attempts by Republican legislatures to cancel Biden’s victory and rewrite election rules. Republican challengers in those states have pledged allegiance to the Big Lie, and the contests look to be competitive. In at least seven states, Big Lie Republicans have been vying for Trump’s endorsement for secretary of state, the office that will oversee the 2024 election. Trump has already endorsed three of them, in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan.”

How many true purple states are there though?

That’s my point. Out of 50 states you named six. Of which Big Lie Republicans aren’t the favored one. Trump’s endorsement haven’t been the golden touch. Most of this endorsements have been in uncontested, incumbent Republican controlled areas.

Actually beating his own party candidates to replace with stooges and win the general isn’t a foregone conclusion.

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

How many true purple states are there though?

That’s my point. Out of 50 states you named six. Of which Big Lie Republicans aren’t the favored one. Trump’s endorsement haven’t been the golden touch. Most of this endorsements have been in uncontested, incumbent Republican controlled areas.

Actually beating his own party candidates to replace with stooges and win the general isn’t a foregone conclusion.

What??? Think about what you’re saying. As close as American elections are, it basically only takes 1 or 2 states to flip an election.

7 states have big lie adherents running for SOS in 2022. They’re not the minority in the party. In purple states, big lie people are still the majority amongst Republicans. All 7 of them will probably win. If 1 or 2 of them refuse to certify a state that a Dem wins, we have constitutional crisis.

 

[Json]

What??? Think about what you’re saying. As close as American elections are, it basically only takes 1 or 2 states to flip an election.

7 states have big lie adherents running for SOS in 2022. They’re not the minority in the party. In purple states, big lie people are still the majority amongst Republicans. All 7 of them will probably win.

As one of the few people on this board who guessed the Dems could steal a seat in Georgia(didn’t expect two) those kinds of variables is what I’m talking about.

The fact you put Georgia as a battleground state instead of say North Carolina which should be a easier Dem pick up is what I’m saying. There are too many moving parts to act like it’s a all of them will win.

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

As one of the few people on this board who guessed the Dems could steal a seat in Georgia(didn’t expect two) those kinds of variables is what I’m talking about.

The fact you put Georgia as a battleground state instead of say North Carolina which should be a easier Dem pick up is what I’m saying. There are too many moving parts to act like it’s a all of them will win.

Who said all of them would win? All I’m saying is that there is a very plausible and frankly high likelihood that one or more states will refuse to certify Democrat wins in 2020, and put it to their Republican state house to vote. This will cause a constitutional crisis and be sent to the right-leaning SCOTUS.

 

[Json]

Who said all of them would win? All I’m saying is that there is a very plausible and frankly high likelihood that one or more states will refuse to certify Democrat wins in 2020, and put it to their Republican state house to vote. This will cause a constitutional crisis and be sent to the right-leaning SCOTUS.

All 7 of them will probably win.

Let’s just remember politics is sometimes just pushing stuff you know you won’t actually have to do just to curry favor. McConnell complains about debt then gave the Dems the votes they needed.



SCOTUS refused to hear it in 2020. Thomas could be dead by the time 2024 comes. Variables.

One or two could have done that in 2020 and they didn’t cross that line. Some of the blustering is just political.

I think we all need to remember these state legislatures aren’t the same make up as the Gym Jordan/ Cawthorne sycophants. Trump appointment judges still turned him down in court.