Running back Dalvin Cook vs. the 49ers run defense
The 49ers spent the offseason bulking up their pass rush and to great effect. They finished this regular season with the league’s top pass defense.
The Vikings, however, are one of the few NFL teams that attempted more runs (476) than passes (466) during the regular season. That trend continued in New Orleans as they ran the ball 40 times versus 31 pass attempts by Cousins.
Minnesota was led by Cook, who missed the last two games of the regular season but seemed to be in excellent shape Sunday. The Vikings were effective early on at attacking the edges of the Saints defense. Cook finished with 94 rushing yards, although he was largely shut down in the second half. He had 84 yards at halftime and finished with 3.4-yard average.
The 49ers run defense, meanwhile, finished 17th in the NFL. The last running back to reach 100 yards against them was Arizona’s Kenyan Drake, who had 110 yards and a touchdown in Week 9. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson rushed for 101 yards in Week 13.
Receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs vs. 49ers’ mystery cornerback
The Saints seemed to focus their defensive attention on Diggs, who was obviously frustrated by his lack of touches and who was held to just two catches and 19 receiving yards. That, however, may have opened up the field for Thielen, who finished with seven catches for 129 yards, including the over-the-shoulder snag that set up the Vikings’ winning score.
Each of the 49ers’ starting cornerbacks stick to one side of the field, which means that if the Vikings want to match a particular receiver against someone other than Pro Bowler Richard Sherman, they can do so. Who will that other cornerback be?
The 49ers haven’t said. They replaced Ahkello Witherspoon with Emmanuel Moseley at right cornerback late in the Week 17 game against the Seahawks after Witherspoon was getting picked on by Russell Wilson. The 49ers have supported Witherspoon during a tough stretch to end the season, but there’s been no indication who will start against Minnesota.
Largely because they prefer to run the ball, the Vikings allowed only 28 sacks this season, fifth fewest in the NFL. Still, the 49ers’ ability to collapse the pocket — especially if Ford is back in the lineup — ought to be just as big a factor as which cornerback starts on Saturday.
49ers offense vs. the Vikings’ defensive front seven
The Vikings’ defensive front on Sunday forced a critical Drew Brees fumble and held the Saints under 100 yards rushing. Linebacker Eric Kendricks led the team in tackles this season and made the All-Pro team last week. Defensive end Danielle Hunter (14.5 sacks) made the Pro Bowl along with safety Harrison Smith.
Hunter will match up against tackles Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey at various points in the game. The Vikings also blitzed more than they usually do against the Saints, something they could duplicate at Levi’s Stadium as well.
The Vikings, however, ranked only 13th in run defense this season and allowed 4.3 yards per carry. The 49ers, meanwhile, were the only team other than Minnesota in the NFC to run more than they passed the ball. They finished first in the conference in rushing while Raheem Mostert led all NFL running backs with a 5.6 yards-per-attempt average.
The 49ers’ ability to move the ball and score points theoretically would cause the Vikings to abandon their own running game earlier than they’d like.
Garoppolo vs. Cousins
Shanahan’s former quarterback won this competition when the teams met in last year’s season opener. Garoppolo threw three interceptions — including one that was returned for a touchdown — while Cousins was an efficient 20 of 36 for 244 yards and two touchdowns as the Vikings cruised to a win. He had similar numbers in New Orleans: 19 of 31 for 242 yards and a touchdown.
Garoppolo’s mastery of Shanahan’s playbook has improved dramatically since then and the two quarterbacks finished the regular season with remarkably similar statistics, including identical 69.1 completion percentages. Garoppolo has shown more improvisational ability but also threw more interceptions — 13 compared to six for Cousins.
The Vikings’ two takeaways were key in their upset of the Saints and their plus-11 turnover differential ranked fifth in the NFL this season. Forcing a takeaway or two would be a way for them to sneak off with a victory over the 49ers, who appear to have advantages nearly everywhere else and opened as seven-point favorites.
Vikings’ fatigue vs. 49ers’ fatigue
While the 49ers are coming off of a bye week, the Vikings played an overtime game in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL and will have only a short week to prepare for a trip to the Bay Area.
There was not a lot of attrition in New Orleans. The Vikings had only 54 plays on defense and did not suffer any major injuries in the game. Nickel cornerback Mackensie Alexander, who missed the Saints game with a knee injury, has a chance to return against the 49ers.