This has to be the most stacked month ever. Jesus
It's INSANE! I'ma go fight by fight just so I can log some predictions at risk of looking foolish (because these are all pretty close and tough to call...I could get em all wrong really).
Rose v Paige: I think Paige is the future of the division, but I really don't know if she's technically ready for Rose. I see Rose picking her off with a potential submission finish. Paige's power and pace could definitely create an upset, especially since Rose can be beaten mentally but I'm going with the vet on this one since the step up in competition is so high. Rose submits Paige.
Northcutt vs Pfister: I don't see Pfister as a big threat. That's about all I have to say on this one. Sage wins with a KO.
Franky vs Chad: Could actually become a boring match if Franky controls pace like he did against Faber. But Chad's power and scrambling should overcome the speed of Franky here. Gray Maynard hurt Franky and had enough strength to go with his wrestling to be a problem despite being less talented. I think Chad can do the same but is a much more dangerous and talented fighter than Gray ever was. Chad by refs stoppage.
Jose vs Conor: I think the Mendes fight added an interesting wrinkle to this because Jose might be wise to shoot and take the fight to the ground...not that the stand up is a clear cut advantage for Conor but the ground game seems to be Jose's definitive advantage (in limited viewing of course). That said, I wouldn't be surprised if they started off standing because Jose wants to prove a point and Conor just wants to land that cross. I'll expect Jose to use his leg kicks to try and throw Conor off balance and I expect Conor to use similar body work to the Mendes fight against a guy who has gassed in fights before. I wonder if there's an adrenaline dump affect with how emotional Conor manages to make Aldo, but that's way too speculative. One way or the other I see a finish within 3. I'm going with Conor setting up the cross (potentially as a counter to the leg kick) for a finish; size matters when both guys are such striking aces.
Weidman v Rockhold: So Weidman says his weight is down and he's in the best shape of his life..but Rockhold is one of the only guys in the division with size to challenge Weidman's advantage so I don't like it. It's a fight I've gone back and forth on way too much. I don't think Rockhold can keep Weidman at bay with kicks because Weidman is incredible at walking down opponents but I also don't think Weidman can play it close too long because if Rockhold takes the fight to the ground, his technique is just sick! Combine the fact that Rockhold is dangerous at more ranges than Weidman with the fact that Rockhold v Machida was overwhelmingly impressive compared to Weidman's fairly competitive match up and I'm going with Luke...but it's razor thin to the point that I'm taking into account Weidman changing his fight approach as a variable when I'd typically ignore it. Rockhold in a close decision.
Romero v Souza: Souza would be wise to go to the body early and often and push for a grappling match. Romero gassed against Kennedy but survived to grab the KO, which shows a potential weakness but also how dangerous the guy is. Both of these cats have KO power that can end the fight quickly but I expect a dog fight. I'm a Souza die hard fan and expect him to win the belt some day, so I'm going Jacare but this is Romero's chance to plant his flag as a favorite to take the belt himself. He just doesn't have the comparable opposition to Souza who smoked Mousasi and who I feel beat Rockhold yet...so I'm playing it safe and picking my favorite guy.
Holloway v Stephens: Low key this could be the best fight of the bunch. Holloway is the superior striker but Stephens has insane power, toughness and is octagon IQ has really grown with experience. I think Max will be too good striking to lose this match up, but at the same time I expect Stephens to provoke some dog fights along the way. He could definitely hurt Holloway (he can hurt anybody) and change the face of the fight. Still picking Max by unanimous decision.
Cerrone v RDA: RDA seems to have a style that really would be problematic for Cerrone. He can grind out a decision and force the fight to be uncomfortable, but I'd love to see Cerrone say "Screw it" and give up his back to look for a quick submission or escape back to his feet in space. The Jackson/Winkeljohn factor is always at play in match-ups like this because I think everyone knows what RDA wants to try and do...so there's a good opportunity to prepare and counter the guy's tactics. I think RDA should be a rightful favorite, but I'm going underdog with Cerrone winning this one with a late KO in the championship rounds.
JDS vs Overeem: I still don't trust Overeem's chin against a guy who just never seems to go down and has so much power. It'd be interesting to see if Overeem went more wrestling heavy to protect his chin and win a decision, but also boring. I think JDS scores a KO early though with the caveat being that he's taken so much punishment even in wins (Miocic fight was epic) that he could start to fade very fast.
Top three fights?
Jose vs Conor has the emotion and skill base.
Holloway vs Stephens could become a slugfest. The fight that has the most potential to be ugly and less technical is also the one that has the most potential to be a lot of fun.
Rockhold vs Weidman has the threat of their skills neutralizing each other and making it a slower fight...but I think both are willing to take the risks necessary to alter momentum, so it could be a really exciting fight.