Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
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Most likely No. 1 seeds in 2015
Let's start with this question. Is there a systematic method for making 68 predictions on an event that is over 48 weeks away?
Every team in the country performed at a certain level for 30-plus games last season. Each team returns some percentage of minutes played from the players responsible for that level of performance.
So we start with an assumption -- albeit inexact -- that returning players will not regress in their established level of performance. More specifically, we assume that the combination of improving players will at least equal the performance of those who regress or lose time to injury and other absences.
Next, we look at the departures. In addition to graduating seniors and transfers, players projected in the first round of the NBA draft are considered gone, even if they've yet to announce their intention for early entry (that's you, Jabari and Joel). We can add them back into team calculations later, as needed.
ESPN recruiting grades -- or prior school statistics, in the case of transfers -- are the baseline for determining the performance level of newcomers, in combination with an estimate of the available minutes each new player will assume.
I no longer make any qualitative adjustments to this data. This bracket is strictly a numeric seed list of 68 teams (including projected automatic qualifiers) placed into the regionals and subregionals of a new year. Over the summer and into the fall, I'll begin to make subjective determinations based on things like coaching changes, projected schedule strength, news reports and other roster issues. Thankfully, there isn't as much conference realignment to potentially skew the data as was the case a year ago.
This method does seem to occasionally overvalue teams with an unusually high number of returning players (On, Wisconsin!). And recruiting rankings tend to be haphazard, at best, while undervaluing the most important newcomers. But I've found the numeric approach to be more accurate, on balance, than the typical "eyeball" method for such things. It also provides a legitimate baseline for the many personnel changes that inevitably occur between now and November.
One area in which our calculations have been a slight net negative is in the ability to forecast No. 1 seeds. So I offer a little of my own way-too-early eye test to set the following top-line odds for the 2014-15 season. Here are my odds-on favorites to land on the top line come Selection Sunday 2015:
• Wisconsin Badgers, Big Ten (50 percent): For now, the Badgers look to return all but guard Ben Brust to their Final Four roster.
• Arizona Wildcats, Pac-12 (40 percent): Assumes the return of Pac-12 player of the year Nick Johnson and the departure of star freshman Aaron Gordon.
• Michigan Wolverines, Big Ten (30 percent): The Wolverines figure to get former starter Mitch McGary back from his back injury.
• Kansas Jayhawks, Big 12 (25 percent): The talent pipeline never seems to run dry for Bill Self in Lawrence.
• Duke Blue Devils, ACC (25 percent): Ditto for Coach K in Durham.
• Villanova Wildcats, Big East (20 percent): The Wildcats were one spot off the top line in this year's true seed list.
• Virginia Cavaliers, ACC (20 percent): The Cavs lose Joe Harris but not a system that resulted in ACC regular-season and tournament titles.
• Kentucky Wildcats, SEC (20 percent): Time for the annual "Who knows?" guess regarding which Wildcats are in uniform next season.
• North Carolina Tar Heels, ACC (20 percent): There is more coming in than going out for the Tar Heels, including stellar scorer Marcus Paige.
• Louisville Cardinals, ACC (10 percent): How will the Cardinals fare in their new ACC home?
• Wichita State Shockers, Missouri Valley (10 percent): The Shockers weren't on this list a year ago, but I'm not making that mistake again.
• Contenders (50 percent): Pick one from among the likes of annual powers UConn, Florida and Syracuse along with personal sleepers Oklahoma, SMU, Gonzaga and VCU.
• Field (80 percent): Yes, I'm saying it's almost certain there will be at least one No. 1 seed not even listed here.
Is this a great game or what?
And of course, thanks for reading all season long.
ThaRealness
Superstar
good shyt man!
ESPN 100: Biggest risers
The finish line was already in site in February when we last updated our ESPN 100 rankings. After watching many of these prospects for the better part of the past four years, the evaluation process was no longer about learning new things as much as it was monitoring recent developments.
As a result, our most recent and final version of the 2014 ESPN 100 bears a resemblance to its predecessor, except for a select few prospects who seized their opportunity to make one lasting impression.
With that in mind, here are the players whose stock rose the most in the final ESPN 100 of the 2014 class.
Isaac Copeland, Georgetown: He has always been loaded with talent and potential, but Copeland turned potential into production on a consistent basis for the first time this season, leading Brewster Academy to both New England and national prep championships in the process. He has a phenomenal blend of physical tools and versatile basketball skills. Blended with unprecedented assertiveness and consistency, it allowed him to be the most dynamic prospect in the prep ranks this season. He’s not necessarily built to be a one-on-one scorer, but there are few who can impact a game in more ways. He’s smooth all over the court, yet still explosive around both rims. He’s an excellent ball handler and passer for a guy his size and is now knocking down 3-pointers almost as consistently as he is scoring over defenders from the block and midrange area. Simply put, he’s a stat-stuffer who appears poised to do the same next year in the Big East.
Chris McCullough, Syracuse: With his motor continuing to be a concern and his game showing no notable improvements in the better part of the past two years, McCullough fell to an unprecedented low, 29th overall, earlier this winter. But he has responded in the two months since, finishing his career at IMG Academy and starting to show the renewed passion and energy level that help to maximize his almost limitless athletic tools. With unrivaled length, speed, athleticism and agility, he’s as good of a physical prospect as there is in the 2014 class, but there’s still work left to be done as he never has consistently committed himself to being the best player he can be. If, and when, he does, there will be few better NBA prospects coming out of this ESPN 100.
L.J. Peak, Georgetown: Known primarily for his power and athleticism on the wing to those who have seen him exclusively on the summer circuit, Peak turned in a huge senior season at Gaffney High School, averaging 38 points per game while shooting 60 percent from the floor. While high school numbers alone are rarely good indicators of success at the next level, what’s equally notable in Peak’s case are the ways in which his game has grown and evolved. While he’s virtually unstoppable at that level of competition when going to the rim, his skill set has come a long way both in terms of his ability to handle the ball as well as shoot it from behind the 3-point line. His newfound versatility was enough to shoot him up to the No. 31 spot.
Kameron Chatman, Michigan: He’s a classic late bloomer who has continued to improve at a rapid rate and yet very clearly still has his best basketball in front of him. A highly skilled southpaw with excellent size on the wing, Chatman’s frame has now started to fill out at a much more rapid rate, giving him the versatility not just to splash 3s over contesting defenders but also to diversify his offensive game around the rim. He’s also a deceptively good ball handler and very good passer, all of which will be utilized in Michigan’s offensive system. The bottom line is that it was clear he was still trending up, so he jumped 13 spots.
Justin Bibbs, Virginia Tech: Bibbs has competed on the biggest stages that high school basketball has to offer and seemingly raised the level of his game at each step along the way. Most recently, he was a pivotal component of Montverde’s run to the dikk’s Sporting Goods High School National Tournament championship. Bibbs made his bones as a southpaw shot-maker, but he has leaned out his frame, improved his quickness and become much more versatile on the offensive end as a result. He’ll be a critical bridge to the future for Buzz Williams as he’s battle-tested, already well coached and capable of stepping right in from day one.
Chandler Hutchison, Boise State: Hutchinson committed to Leon Rice in the first week of September, and subsequently signed in November, and it’s a good thing for Boise State’s sake because the 6-foot-6 swingman would have had his choice of high majors had he played his senior season out. As it stands, Hutchinson could be as impactful a mid-major freshman as there is in the country next season. He’s long and athletic with good size on the perimeter, a well-developed skill set, and the type of instinctive feel for the game that really can’t be taught. Put those tools in Boise State’s high-octane offensive system and he’s going to be a name to know next season.
Cody Martin, NC State: Martin has come full circle, returning to the ESPN 100 to join his brother and fellow NC State-bound swingman Caleb Martin. The twins were widely celebrated at a young age and both cracked some of the first ESPN 60 lists for the 2014 class. Ultimately, though, Caleb seemed to separate himself from his brother. That gap appears to have shrunk this season as Cody has emerged not only as a more consistent scoring threat but also as an extremely versatile big wing who was able to double as both Oak Hill’s backup point guard as well as one of its best overall rebounders.
Redraft 2007: Kevin Durant No. 1
The NBA draft is two rounds. Two.
2007 NBA Draft Order
1. Portland Trail Blazers
2. Seattle SuperSonics
3. Atlanta Hawks
4. Memphis Grizzlies
5. Boston Celtics (traded to Seattle)
6. Milwaukee Bucks
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
8. Charlotte Bobcats (traded to GS)
9. Chicago Bulls (from New York)
10. Sacramento Kings
11. Atlanta Hawks (from Indiana)
12. Philadelphia 76ers
13. New Orleans Hornets
14. Los Angeles Clippers
That's because there are just so few spots "open" for teams each offseason, thanks to typical 13-man early-season rosters that are mostly filled with players from the previous season.
Consequently, each rookie class has about 50 or so players who spend at least some time in an NBA jersey that season, and that number dwindles each year until eventually, after just a few seasons, only about 15 guys from the class have made any real impact. A few are All-Stars or are close to it, a few are starters, and the rest are reserves who are solid rotation guys.
The class of 2007 is chock full of impact players, obviously, but just seven years after those young men were drafted, a full third of the 30 first-round picks are not in the NBA anymore. In leagues like the NFL and MLB, so many players get drafted each year that it is easy to come up with 30-40 names of players who were deserving of being first-round picks when looking backward. In the NBA, the magic number is 15.
Based on what we know now and what the teams looked like then, here is how the lottery picks (top 14) should have or even could have gone down:
Amin Elhassan's pick: Kevin Durant | David Thorpe's pick: Durant
Elhassan: No need to waste too many words explaining this one. I'd be shocked if Coach has a different opinion.
Thorpe: I remember getting beat up in the media for merely suggesting to Chad Ford and in my chats that Durant deserves consideration to be the top overall pick. Fun times.
Thorpe's pick: Joakim Noah | Elhassan's pick: Marc Gasol
Thorpe: I like Noah over Gasol in a coin flip. Top two passers at center in the game. Elite defenders. Trusted leaders. Noah is just a little more spirited, and it rubs off on his teammates.
Elhassan: Same coin flip for me, but landed on "heads" for Gasol. I agree with your assessment, but I think Gasol has got the edge on Noah as far as an individual offensive talent and focal point of a team offense.
Elhassan's pick: Noah | Thorpe's pick: Al Horford
Elhassan: But to be certain, Noah is really, really good as well! One of the best defensive anchors in the game, an offensive skill set that is finally being exploited and a true leader, through and through.
Thorpe: I know our 2, 3 and 4 picks are the same guys and we can't go wrong anywhere. I think Horford is the most underrated player in this class. He brings defense, leadership, basketball IQ and a midrange game. He's a Hall of Fame talent stuck in a lost franchise and he has made the most of it.
Elhassan's pick: Horford | Thorpe: Gasol
Elhassan: Agreed on Horford. Whenever the debate for "best power forward in the game" comes up, I'm always amused at how his name is omitted from the conversation. Nice inside-outside game, excellent rebounder, high-level defender and all the intangibles.
Thorpe: As I said earlier, Horford, Noah and Gasol can all be interchanged, so you can't go wrong with any of them in any order from 2-3-4.
Elhassan's pick: Mike Conley | Thorpe's pick: Conley
Elhassan: I think we are lockstep on this one. Continuing the theme of highly underrated players, Conley has been the forgotten name when discussing this Golden Generation of Point Guards. Floor general, distributor with excellent vision and enough craft to make up for his size disadvantage.
Thorpe: Conley to Boston is a perfect fit of form and function. First-class individual, defense-first mentality, all cloaked in a super quick and skilled body that is about "we," not "me." He and Rajon Rondo would have formed the best first- and second-string PG tandem in modern league history.
Thorpe's pick: Carl Landry | Elhassan's pick: Tiago Splitter
Thorpe: Here's where things go screwy ... for you. I chose an incredibly tough-minded guy who for a time has been the league's best fourth-quarter scorer. You preferred a guy who is a good defensive player, but was never a sure thing to even come over here to play. Explain yourself, sir!
Elhassan: Splitter's buyout was hefty but not enormous, but more important: He had a strong desire to come over to the NBA, which reminds me of another former Tau Ceramica player with a high buyout who has had a pretty good NBA career: Goran Dragic. I love Splitter's defensive IQ and touch around the basket, while I feel as though undersized scoring 4s such as Landry are a much more easily replaceable commodity.
Elhassan's pick: Arron Afflalo | Thorpe's pick: Afflalo
Elhassan: This is a "hindsight is 20-20" pick for me, and might still be a reach. Afflalo's niche is as a high-level defender who can provide scoring punch. He strays when he tries to live a Kobe Bryant fantasy offensively, as his defense struggles. Would he have embraced being who he should be on a Minnesota team trending downward?
Thorpe: I'm with you on the Afflalo call. Shooters who will defend are always valuable, as he has proved a number of times in his career. The mess in Minny certainly would have derailed him to some degree; hard for anyone but the elite of the elite to stand out there during those dark years.
8. Charlotte Bobcats | Actual pick: Brandan Wright
Thorpe's pick: Corey Brewer | Elhassan's pick: Thaddeus Young
Thorpe: In the age of zone defenses, finding super fast, tall and long wings who can score in transition is a must. Brewer played that role perfectly, once he went to teams that ran. Even now, he leads the NBA in transition buckets. Charlotte played at a decent pace and he would have helped their middling defense.
Elhassan: I loved Brewer coming out of Florida, but I can't help but think a man of his talents would have been wasted in Charlotte much the same way he was early in Minnesota. My pick was Thad Young, whose scoring prowess and versatility would have found a way to the floor more quickly for the Bobcats.
Elhassan's pick: Jeff Green | Thorpe's pick: Green
Elhassan: Coming out of the structure of Georgetown's Princeton offense, Green would have been a nice fit in Chicago as a versatile forward who could back up Luol Deng or play alongside him. Great size-to-skill ratio, he could put the ball on the floor and make plays, and an underrated passer from the high post.
Thorpe: Green is a great fit for those Bulls, who could have played either Deng or Green some as a stretch forward to add some versatility. I don't think he would have excelled there unless he stayed long enough for Tom Thibodeaux to arrive. If that had happened, Green would be closer to his full potential.
Thorpe's pick: Splitter | Elhassan's pick: Spencer Hawes
Thorpe: I'm not convinced that the old management team in Sacramento would have passed on a shooter-to-be like Hawes over Splitter, but they clearly should have if given the chance. They had some good to great offensive players but no one to protect the rim (and no coaching or culture who cared much about that). Splitter may have never come for that reason, but he could have been a game-changer there.
Elhassan: You're absolutely right, they would have never valued Splitter's strengths to overlook his "weaknesses" away from the basket. Then again in 2007, to paraphrase the great Michael Ray Richardson, the Kings be sinkin'. Hawes' ability at 7-foot-1 to space the floor, pass from both high and low blocks and underrated defensive rebounding make him valuable as a stretch big.
Elhassan's pick: Marco Belinelli | Thorpe's pick: Young
Elhassan: Time for some international flair! The past two seasons, Belinelli has finally been able to realize his potential as an elite shooter who can moonlight in a combo role, while still functioning within a team defensive scheme. Would the 2007 Hawks see him for his strengths? This is the same team that couldn't wait to dump Boris Diaw.
Thorpe: I love the thought of another athletic guy on that Hawks team. Atlanta may have given Boston their toughest battle because they just overwhelmed them (almost) with speed and athleticism. They did need a shooter to develop like Belinelli, but I don't love the fit. He may have drowned like Acie Law did.
Thorpe's pick: Brandan Wright | Elhassan's pick: Rudy Fernandez
Thorpe: Obviously I'm much higher on Wright than you are, because you'd rather have a soft shooter than a super-skilled athlete such as Wright play for Philly. Wright was wasted for years in Golden State; if he had been developed from the get-go, who knows how good he could have been. We see him now as one of the most productive and efficient players in the game as a role player.
Elhassan: I just can't believe the first name you drop after calling my guy "soft" is Brandan Wright! Athlete? Yes. Skilled? Ehh ... I'll tell you who is skilled: Rudy Fernandez! This guy is a no-brainer NBA talent as an athletic combo guard. He's a better all-round talent than Belinelli, but also way more mercurial a personality and inconsistent a shooter.
Elhassan's pick: Josh McRoberts | Thorpe's pick: Wilson Chandler
Elhassan: Speaking of skilled athletes, how about Josh McRoberts! Like Wright, it took him a long time to find his niche in the NBA, and he's finally put together his incredible skill set into something productive, as the perfect counter to a post presence.
Thorpe: I love that McRoberts beat the odds and became such a productive player. But Chandler is the superior talent and really is a no-brainer of a pick. He showed what a huge factor he can be for a 57-win team last season in Denver. In the right system, he'd be better on defense than almost anyone in the class.
Thorpe's pick: Aaron Brooks | Elhassan's pick: Greg Oden
Thorpe: This guy is a pain to watch oftentimes, but mostly if you are rooting for the other team. In L.A., he would have been Jamal Crawford long before Crawford arrived. He'd have been the next Bobby Jackson, that super-energized bench scorer who is impossible to guard with just one man.
Elhassan: I can attest he's a pain when he's on your team as well, as I had the pleasure of watching him suit up for the Suns in 2010-11 after he came over in a ridiculously one-sided trade for Dragic. I can't believe at 14 you won't roll the dice on Oden! Maybe the Clippers aren't the best landing spot (and maybe I'm just spoiled from being around the best training staff in the NBA), but I'd take the chance that different support staff and expectations would yield a different outcome.
Is No. 1 seed in the East important?
Earning a lower seed but facing a better matchup could pay big dividends
What if the tortoise and the hare had both pulled up lame before the finish line? Aesop may not write any fables about them, but the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers seem to be engaged in a race nobody particularly cares to win.
The Heat and the Pacers meet Friday night, a matchup that will go a long way toward determining the top seed in the forthcoming Eastern Conference playoffs. For much of the season, a rematch between Miami and Indiana in the East finals seemed a near certainty. However, with the Pacers fading fast and teams heating up behind the East leaders, the bracket looks a lot more dramatic. Adding further intrigue, there is a rising debate that home-court advantage aside, both the Heat and the Pacers would very much like to avoid a second-round meeting with one of those hard-charging contenders, namely the Chicago Bulls.
Would a title contender really tank to avoid a No. 1 seed based on potential matchups? It doesn't seem likely, but with Pacers coach Frank Vogel resting all five of his starters in Milwaukee, and the Heat playing without a hobbled Dwyane Wade, it does seem like the beasts of the East aren't as concerned about seeding as those of us following the race. Indeed, Vogel has said his club's focus is "playing well" at the outset of the postseason, while Miami's LeBron James has pointed to team health as his team's top priority.
Once upon a time, you weren't really a serious title contender unless you finished first in your conference during the regular season. From 1978 to 1999, only three teams won a title without a No. 1 seed, and only one was lower than a No. 2. However, just five of the last 13 champions have finished first in their conference. The Heat won it all as a No. 1 last season, but also won as a No. 2 the season before, and lost in the Finals to West No. 3 Dallas the season before that. At this point in NBA history, you still don't want to be lower than a 3-seed, as only the 1994 Houston Rockets have won with a lower slot than that, but that's not a factor for Miami and Indiana. So as long as you've got one of those top three spots -- and won't be playing at a road disadvantage against your conference's two top teams -- then matchups seem to matter more than seeding.
That being the case, we're left with two questions. Does landing the top seed matter more for the Pacers or the Heat? And is there something to this notion that no one wants to play the Bulls?
Who needs No. 1?
On the surface, recent history suggests that Indiana needs the top seed more than the Heat, and indeed Vogel has already stated that his starting quintet will be back on the floor for Friday's showdown. Winning the East in the regular season has been the Pacers' focus since the start of the campaign, recent rhetoric aside. Even back in the preseason, Indiana looked like a team in playoff mode, and it's not a stretch to believe that's played into the Pacers' fade late in the season. However, you can't really blame the intent, as Indiana well may have fallen one home game short of last year's Finals.
But there is more to landing the top seed than being guaranteed one extra home game per series, an advantage that can be erased with one bad outing. There is also the fact that, most years, you're going to get an easier path to the Finals from the top spot than from the second spot. However, that may not be the case for the Heat and Pacers this season.
Just six of 74 conference champs since the ABA-NBA merger have been worse than a 3-seed. Most seasons, when a surprise team has won its conference, it's been because of some kind of extenuating circumstance. The 1994 Rockets, 2009 Celtics and the Kobe-Shaq Lakers from 2000-02 were aged recent champions who cruised through the regular season before turning it on. Those teams offer evidence that for a championship team such as Miami, their proven playoff mettle makes seeding a lesser consideration than remaining fresh and healthy.
Miami and Indiana will have to traverse a full-strength field in the East, but that doesn't matter if there isn't a strong third team. Earlier in the season, it appeared the Heat and Pacers could count on a couple of drama-free matchups before hooking up in the conference finals. But thanks to the Bulls, it no longer appears they will have that luxury.
Emergence of the Bulls
The latest Hollinger Playoff Odds report illustrates the quandary facing Miami and Indiana. The power rankings that fuel those odds give extra weight to recent performance, and with the Pacers' extended run of playing barely .500 ball, both the Bulls and the Raptors have surpassed Indiana in terms of championship probability.
Chicago and Toronto are locked in a battle for the 3-seed that promises to go to the last day of the season. The Raptors have a tiebreaker advantage as a division champ, and that makes any attempt at side-stepping the top seed moot. It's hard to avoid an opponent when you don't know where that team is going to finish. The Bulls and Raptors both play soft slates to finish, but the Bulls have to go on the road to New York and Charlotte. That means even though they appear to be the superior team to Toronto, Chicago may not get that third seed. That's why second might look better than first to both Miami and Indiana.
This isn't to discount the fine late-season play of Toronto or Brooklyn, but the Bulls are the real threat to the Heat and Pacers. Since Feb. 9 -- an arbitrary date coinciding with whenJoakim Noah started consistently producing like an MVP candidate -- Chicago has the East's best record at 22-7. Toronto and Brooklyn aren't far behind, but the Bulls have the league's third-best point differential during that span, behind the Spurs and Clippers. The Bulls' average margin of victory (6.5 points) is more than twice as high as the Nets' over the last two months and is 1.5 points better than the Raptors'.
Recent play matters, and that's why the Pacers need every advantage they can get. Since Chicago caught fire, Indiana's own point differential has been 7.9 points per game worse than Chicago's. The Pacers have gone 14-13 since the All-Star break. With three games remaining, two of them against Miami and Oklahoma City, Indiana hopes it won't have to become a historical outlier in another sense: Only three of 74 post-merger conference champs have made the Finals with a record of .500 or worse over their last 30 games.
Given Chicago's surge and the lack of certainty that recent No. 1 seeds have offered, it looks as though avoiding the Bulls offers more advantage than the home court that comes with being the No. 1 seed. That's especially true for the Pacers. While Miami has proved that, when healthy, it can win it all without a top seed, the Pacers haven't. With the red-hot Bulls perhaps standing in their way, the Pacers know home-court advantage in the conference finals means nothing if you don't get there.
Sophomore class has bright future
Which second-year players had the best season? Here are our final rankings
NBA Sophs Better Than Class of 2014?
It was once known as a "one-player draft." But now that we're seeing Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, Andre Drummond and company are in the NBA, David Thorpe says this class is likely better than the celebrated class of 2014.
The draft class of 2012 was never considered as one that would be talked about for years, but like some of the players in this group, time has revealed a lot more to be excited about. This class has future MVP winners, league leaders in a number of statistical categories and plenty of impact players and star power. It should also feature future Olympians, as well as some guys who start for title teams.
There are still three names that are pulling much of the weight for this group, but the "middle class" is getting richer each month. Everyone is excited about the upcoming draft class this June, and while it will have no problem outshining the current crop of rookies, there is serious doubt it can top what this sophomore class is in the process of accomplishing. From top to bottom, these 20 guys can measure up to about any class seen in recent years.
1. Anthony Davis, Pelicans
There was never a doubt in any executive's mind that Davis was not going to be a special player. The only question was when it was going to happen. There was a legitimate concern that Davis would need a few years to develop on offense -- he had a smooth jumper but was so frail. But it only took one month -- November 2013 -- for Davis to show everyone that this was going to be the year he ascended into elite status.
How elite is he? He is one of only five men who averages 20 or more points per game while grabbing at least 10 boards a night. The other four are all strong men who also have skill and craft (Al Jefferson, Kevin Love, DeMarcus Cousins and LaMarcus Aldridge). But of these elite five, only Davis blocks more than two shots per game (2.8). It's a staggering achievement, one that requires special shooting and scoring skills to hit that 20 PPG mark, toughness and determination to fight the behemoths of the NBA nightly for 10-plus rebounds, plus either great size or agility (or both) to be that kind of a shot-blocker.
Two seasons ago, if New Orleans executives were told that Davis would average 20 PPG, or 10 RPG, or block over 2 shots per game by season two, they'd have been happy for any of those numbers.
There is talk of Andrew Wiggins being the closest thing to LeBron James to enter the draft since 2003. But it is Davis, who is just 21, who has a chance to be the next "best player in the world" after LeBron and Durant release their hold on the league.
2. Andre Drummond, Pistons
As much as Davis has been a surprise because of how rapidly he has become an elite player, Drummond has been a surprise in that he has become an every-night star.
The league is filled with men who package a lot of average games around some amazing ones, but what Drummond is doing in almost every game is very symbolic of his overall place in the league as one of the finest young talents. Consider that in 2014, he has only made fewer than half of his shots in four games, and in two of those games he was limited because of fouls. He's done this while averaging double figures in scoring in each month. He's also never averaged fewer than 12 rebounds a game for any month this year. This from a player where words like "heartbeat" and "motor" were thrown about, negatively, during the draft process.
Once Drummond increases his scoring efforts (something his team has to help him with as he is not a guard), he'll immediately join MVP conversations. April has been the best month of his career, possibly signaling his readiness for those kinds of discussions as early as next season.
3. Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers
Lillard's play this season gives this class three men who will be rated as elite players for the foreseeable future. That puts the draft class of 2012 on a special level.
Lillard's combination of quickness and craft with the ball makes him a difficult man to stay in front of, and then when you factor in his shooting, he joinsStephen Curry as the top shooters/drivers in the league among point guards.
His quick trigger and incredible range (his name is mentioned often when discussing a 4-point line) helps Portland's offense by pulling one defender far from the basket almost all the time. That spacing enables the Blazers to have bigger gaps to attack, among other things -- one big reason why they are third in the NBA in turnover rate. Lillard's steady hand with the ball helps there, too.
He's not going to compete for MVP and all-league honors like Drummond and Davis will, but he is good enough to be the MVP of a playoff series, including an NBA Finals.
4. Terrence Jones, Rockets
If Houston performs to its optimum level in the playoffs, Jones has the best chance to be the only impact player from this class to make the NBA's final four. He has been a real blessing to the Rockets' offense, a guy with a great feel for when to cut, pass, shoot or drive. And he can get a lot better.
Jones is not yet a consistent 3-point threat, but he looks like he should be by as early as next season, and that would make Dwight Howard and James Harden even more challenging for opponents to slow down. Today, Jones still makes his All-Star teammates better by punishing defenses that are mostly focused on those two men; the second-year man is one of about 20 players who make more than half of their shots while making at least five shots a game.
5. Jonas Valanciunas, Raptors
Like most big men, Valanciunas is coming on as he grows into his body. In fact, based on how he is playing currently (the best stretch of basketball in his life), he might be headed toward the top three of this class by next year.
The Raps are one of the best stories, and getting their big man to play with great competitiveness has been part of the success. He's always had the soft hands, skill, size and talent to be a special player.
Valanciunas does not have the upside of Davis or Drummond, as he just won't ever overwhelm opponents with athleticism, but he can still be a franchise-level big man. He's well on his way there now.
6. Miles Plumlee, Suns
Sometimes the sum of the parts is better than what you would expect, and that is the case with Phoenix this season. Alongside Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, Channing Frye and P.J. Tucker, Plumlee has helped anchor a unit that is outscoring opponents by over 13 points per 48 minutes. Replace Plumlee with Markieff Morris and that unit is even better, so it's not that Plumlee is the biggest reason the Suns or that unit are so effective.
The key here is that because Plumlee is able to help that group so much, it saves both Frye and Morris from getting too banged up to perform as well as they are currently playing. Absent Plumlee's ability to finish paint shots, stay within his role and defend the paint, the Suns could not keep up their stellar level of play all season as they have done. He has a chance to grow into a more productive player as part of their core if he can add some range to his shot and a willingness to shoot it.
7. Bradley Beal, Wizards
It was always expected that Beal would be a great shooter, so it's no surprise that he already is. That fact alone has helped the Wizards a great deal, opening up driving lanes for John Wall and the paint for Marcin Gortat.
Beal is still a long way from being an All-Star, though, as he needs to improve on making shots inside the 3-point line and earn more free throw attempts. But his secret talent, hidden by his sweet-shooting stroke, is that he is a very good "basketball player" in terms of making the simple play -- easy passes, boxing out his man, etc.
He is currently playing his best ball, despite poor 3-point shooting -- that is a strong sign he is figuring out the other parts of the game.
8. John Henson, Bucks
Henson's case for being a top-10 player on this list is a bit problematic. While Davis and Drummond have been superlative on lotto teams, Henson has been only good on a terrible team. But had he been allowed to play 32-plus minutes a night, who knows what would have happened?
Henson has had enough strong outings against playoff teams this season to suggest he's been one of the top players in this class, and he remains a potential All-Star candidate as he strengthens and develops a better shot. He joins Davis and Drummond as men who can average double-doubles while also being elite shot-blockers -- a rare club.
9. Terrence Ross, Raptors
Toronto has also enjoyed its breakout season thanks to its second-year wing, who has played a significant role on the team. Ross combines a strong perimeter shot with an excellent ability to make plays in transition. In other words, he's not just a catch-and-shoot threat.
Ross is the third-youngest player averaging better than 39 percent from 3. He's the perfect complement to DeMar DeRozan, who is more scoring focused and needs the ball in his hands more often.
10. Jared Sullinger, Celtics
A few other sophs have put up good numbers on bad teams, but Sullinger gets the nod for the 10th spot thanks to his impact on the glass as well as on the scoreboard. He's proved to be one of the top offensive rebounders in the league, and his soft touch and understanding of how to use his big body to create finishing angles has been a strong part of his game, too.
Sullinger needs to be paired with an athletic shot-blocking big. If Boston can make that happen it will have its post players of the future.
11. Draymond Green, Warriors
The classic case of a guy who does not have great individual metrics but is a key component to helping his team win. Toughness is a talent that has real value on the court.
12. Dion Waiters, Cavaliers
Waiters is more productive than most of the players ranked ahead of him, but less efficient overall. He is still the same player that he was last season. Perhaps if he gets moved to a new team -- and away from Kyrie Irving's shadow -- his game will blossom.
13. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bobcats
It's impossible to hide the disappointment in MKG's lack of offensive development after a strong November. But he has been the key defender in Charlotte's starting lineup -- a unit that has performed very well and is the biggest reason the Bobcats are in the playoffs.
14. Patrick Beverley, Rockets
He'd be a top-10 guy on this list if not for his late-season injury. The Rockets desperately miss his tenacity and overall defensive toughness. They are not nearly as good without him on the floor.
15. Jeremy Lamb, Thunder
One of the hardest things for young NBA players to do is make deep shots without taking a lot of them (there are few chances to make adjustments). But Lamb has done a good job in that role this season. There's every reason to think he'll get even better at it for the foreseeable future.
16. Mirza Teletovic, Nets
It's almost unfair that Teletovic is considered a second-year player because he is a very accomplished 28-year-old. His ability to shoot deep 3s has helped Brooklyn's offense -- he has been a part of some second-unit rotations that have been incredibly effective building out leads.
17. Maurice Harkless, Magic
Harkless has improved as the season has evolved and continues to look like, at worst, a solid rotation guy who can amp up a team's athleticism. At best, he can be a starter, now that he has improved his perimeter shooting substantially. Remember, he is still just 20 years old.
18. Brian Roberts, Pelicans
Roberts stepped into a starting role after beating out Austin Rivers when Jrue Holiday got hurt. He has done a solid job helping to keep the Pelicans competitive. But he needs to improve his shooting if he hopes to remain in the rotation next season.
19. Mike Scott, Hawks
The 25-year-old second-year man has put together a solid season, looking like a veteran. Still, with Scott turning 26 this summer and Atlanta having some options in this year's draft, his future is uncertain.
20. Thomas Robinson, Blazers
Robinson's positive contributions to Portland's great season are not fairly measured by his statistics or metrics. He has embraced his role as an energy guy who brings passion to the game -- and that is noteworthy.
Henson's case for being a top-10 player on this list is a bit problematic. While Davis and Drummond have been superlative on lotto teams, Henson has been only good on a terrible team. But had he been allowed to play 32-plus minutes a night, who knows what would have happened?
Henson has had enough strong outings against playoff teams this season to suggest he's been one of the top players in this class, and he remains a potential All-Star candidate as he strengthens and develops a better shot. He joins Davis and Drummond as men who can average double-doubles while also being elite shot-blockers -- a rare club.
9. Terrence Ross, Raptors
Toronto has also enjoyed its breakout season thanks to its second-year wing, who has played a significant role on the team. Ross combines a strong perimeter shot with an excellent ability to make plays in transition. In other words, he's not just a catch-and-shoot threat.
Ross is the third-youngest player averaging better than 39 percent from 3. He's the perfect complement to DeMar DeRozan, who is more scoring focused and needs the ball in his hands more often.
10. Jared Sullinger, Celtics
A few other sophs have put up good numbers on bad teams, but Sullinger gets the nod for the 10th spot thanks to his impact on the glass as well as on the scoreboard. He's proved to be one of the top offensive rebounders in the league, and his soft touch and understanding of how to use his big body to create finishing angles has been a strong part of his game, too.
Sullinger needs to be paired with an athletic shot-blocking big. If Boston can make that happen it will have its post players of the future.
11. Draymond Green, Warriors
The classic case of a guy who does not have great individual metrics but is a key component to helping his team win. Toughness is a talent that has real value on the court.
12. Dion Waiters, Cavaliers
Waiters is more productive than most of the players ranked ahead of him, but less efficient overall. He is still the same player that he was last season. Perhaps if he gets moved to a new team -- and away from Kyrie Irving's shadow -- his game will blossom.
13. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bobcats
It's impossible to hide the disappointment in MKG's lack of offensive development after a strong November. But he has been the key defender in Charlotte's starting lineup -- a unit that has performed very well and is the biggest reason the Bobcats are in the playoffs.
14. Patrick Beverley, Rockets
He'd be a top-10 guy on this list if not for his late-season injury. The Rockets desperately miss his tenacity and overall defensive toughness. They are not nearly as good without him on the floor.
15. Jeremy Lamb, Thunder
One of the hardest things for young NBA players to do is make deep shots without taking a lot of them (there are few chances to make adjustments). But Lamb has done a good job in that role this season. There's every reason to think he'll get even better at it for the foreseeable future.
16. Mirza Teletovic, Nets
It's almost unfair that Teletovic is considered a second-year player because he is a very accomplished 28-year-old. His ability to shoot deep 3s has helped Brooklyn's offense -- he has been a part of some second-unit rotations that have been incredibly effective building out leads.
17. Maurice Harkless, Magic
Harkless has improved as the season has evolved and continues to look like, at worst, a solid rotation guy who can amp up a team's athleticism. At best, he can be a starter, now that he has improved his perimeter shooting substantially. Remember, he is still just 20 years old.
18. Brian Roberts, Pelicans
Roberts stepped into a starting role after beating out Austin Rivers when Jrue Holiday got hurt. He has done a solid job helping to keep the Pelicans competitive. But he needs to improve his shooting if he hopes to remain in the rotation next season.
19. Mike Scott, Hawks
The 25-year-old second-year man has put together a solid season, looking like a veteran. Still, with Scott turning 26 this summer and Atlanta having some options in this year's draft, his future is uncertain.
20. Thomas Robinson, Blazers
Robinson's positive contributions to Portland's great season are not fairly measured by his statistics or metrics. He has embraced his role as an energy guy who brings passion to the game -- and that is noteworthy.
Just lotto left for biggest losers
Well, here we are. With just one or two games left to play for each team, the season is almost over for the league's cellar dwellers.
No playoffs. Just a long wait until May 20, the night of the NBA Draft Lottery.
All season we've been chronicling the ups and downs of the race to the bottom. Some teams, such as the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic, started down this road deliberately. Others, such as the Milwaukee Bucks, were decimated by injuries that eventually led them down the path to tanking. Meanwhile, for teams such as the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons, this was supposed to be the year they made it back to the playoffs, but, alas, they just didn't have the talent.
Let's take a look back at how the 10 worst teams in the NBA got here and what it will mean to them going forward.
1. Milwaukee Bucks | Status: Tanking | Record: 15-65 (past week: 1-2)
The Bucks began the season hoping to make a push for the playoffs. They re-signed Larry Sanders to a long-term deal and added veterans O.J. Mayo, Caron Butler, Gary Neal, Zaza Pachulia and Carlos Delfino in an attempt to put a winner on the floor. But injuries and problems on and off the court quickly sent the team into a tailspin.
It was probably the best thing that could have ever happened to the Bucks, though. Not only are they all but guaranteed a top-four pick (unless they win their last two games and Philly loses its last two) in a draft with four potential No. 1 candidates, but they've also been able to play rookie Giannis Antetokounmpo a lot of minutes along with second-year forwards John Henson and Khris Middleton.
The development of their young players combined with another elite player coming in the draft is the only way the Bucks are going to get out of the rut of being a perennial eighth seed. Owner Herb Kohl may not have liked the losing, but this season will be a major success for the Bucks if they make the right pick on draft night.
(Preseason rank: 10)
2. Philadelphia 76ers | Status: Tanking | Record: 17-63 (0-3)
The Sixers were among the the truest tankers coming into the season. Although they won their first three games and started the season 5-4, they went 12-59 the rest of the way and cemented their tanking status when they traded away two of their most productive players -- Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes -- for pennies on the dollar. An NBA record-tying 26-game losing streak was added for good measure.
But this was the Sixers' plan from the beginning, and a good one. Philly likely has the NBA's Rookie of the Year in Michael Carter-Williams and arguably the best player in the 2013 NBA draft, Nerlens Noel, coming back healthy next season. And now the team will likely have two top-10 picks to add to the roster. The Sixers won't be great next season, but with so much young talent, they could soon be the best young, up-and-coming team in the league.
(Preseason rank: 2)
3. Orlando Magic | Status: Tanking | Record: 23-57 (1-2)
The Magic didn't really dump any assets this season, but they didn't make a concerted effort to add any to an already bad team either. Call that tanking or rebuilding or whatever you want; Orlando may have not been trying to lose, but it wasn't trying to win either.
This season gave the Magic a chance to see what they had in rookie Victor Oladipo, along with young players, including Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris and Maurice Harkless. Oladipo looks like a keeper. Ditto for Vucevic and Harris. Meanwhile, veteran Arron Afflalo should be a strong asset this summer in the trade market. If the team can find a point guard, some shooting and some rim protection, the Magic have a bright future.
(Preseason rank: 4)
4. Utah Jazz | Status: Rebuilding | Record: 24-56 (0-3)
The Jazz were tough to characterize coming into the season. We knew they'd be worse than last season -- they let free-agent starters Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and Mo Williams go and didn't get much in return. However, those decisions weren't all about getting a high pick in this year's draft. The Jazz felt their young big men -- Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter -- were ready to move into the starting lineup.
The result has been a team with plenty of young talent, but one that couldn't keep up in a tough Western Conference most nights. Still, the season has been a success. The Jazz have gotten tons of valuable experience for their young players, giving them one of the better young cores in the league.
(Preseason rank: 7)
5. Boston Celtics | Status: Rebuilding | Record: 25-55 (2-1)
The Celtics knew what they were getting into when they shipped Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry to the Nets this past summer. An injured Rajon Rondo added to the long season the Celtics were facing. It was going to get ugly, but the upside was that the Celtics were going to get a talented player in this year's draft.
The Celtics still face a tougher road than some of the teams above them on this list. They have Rondo, but his future in Boston is uncertain. The rest of their players are solid but nothing to build around. So landing in the top four on lottery night would be really big for them. That's why they have to be crossing their fingers that Utah wins one more game and they lose both of theirs.
(Preseason rank: 3)
6. Los Angeles Lakers | Status: Tanking | Record: 25-55 (0-3)
It was unclear before the season exactly what the Lakers were going to be with the statuses of Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash both up in the air. When neither could stay healthy this season, the Lakers were simply awful. However, it was probably a blessing in disguise. There was no way this Lakers team, which is woefully devoid of any young talent, was making noise in the playoffs.
Adding a top pick can jump-start the rebuilding process for L.A. If the Lakers are going to lure top free agents, having an elite, blue-chip prospect will help.
(Preseason rank: 8)