Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

Skooby

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WR Kadarius Toney to the Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs got: Toney
New York Giants got: 2023 third-round pick; 2023 sixth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 27

Original grade for the Chiefs: B
New grade for the Chiefs: C

When you think of Toney as a member of the Chiefs, you think of Super Bowl LVII heroics, when he had a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter and a 65-yard punt return to put Kansas City at the 5-yard line a few minutes later. He also played just six offensive snaps in that game.

That's the thing with Toney: He has tantalizing promise, but the results haven't matched up. He totaled 221 receiving yards over 10 regular and postseason games last season and has just 83 in five games this season. He had a brutal drop-filled Week 1 -- including one that resulted in a pick-six -- in the Chiefs' loss to the Lions. He has played in just 23% of Kansas City's offensive snaps this season, same as last regular season post-trade.

The Chiefs have him on an inexpensive contract this season and next, and there's always a chance he can put it together; he's still just 24, after all. But so far, while he has had a couple of very high-profile successes, the results overall have been lackluster.

Original grade for the Giants: B
New grade for the Giants: A


Sometimes unloading a contract at a low price is the right thing to do. Just 1½ years after drafting him in the first round, the Giants dealt Toney for a third-round pick and a sixth-round pick after he'd been on the field for 12 games for them. They're probably happy about how it all turned out.

While the Giants still have a weakness at wide receiver, what they really need is an outside receiving threat -- an entirely different skill set from Toney's. The draft compensation was worth more to the Giants.


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WR Robbie Chosen to the Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals got: Chosen
Carolina Panthers got: Sixth-round pick in 2024, seventh-round pick in 2025
Trade date: Oct. 17

Original grade for the Cardinals: C
New grade for the Cardinals: D

Chosen's lack of production for the Cardinals -- he caught seven passes for 76 yards -- was foreseeable. At the time of this trade, I noted that Anderson had been the worst qualifying wideout in the Receiver Tracking Metrics in 2021, was below average at that point in 2022 and had an incredibly poor 48% catch rate to that point. Arizona was taking a low-risk swing at what they hoped was a useful rental receiver, but the chances were very low, and they did not pan out.

A year later, it's wild to think of Arizona acquiring a player at the trade deadline, albeit on an affordable deal. It is the small price paid for the contract that prevents this grade from being an F. Otherwise, nothing about this deal worked in the Cardinals' favor.

Original grade for the Panthers: B+
New grade for the Panthers: B+


Carolina did well in getting a couple of late-round draft picks for Chosen instead of holding on to him for nothing. His dead cap money was a sunk cost, and there was no way the Panthers (or any others) were going to keep him on the contract he was on -- which included a non-guaranteed $12 million in 2024 -- beyond 2023. It was a home run in terms of execution, and I only give it a B+ because the scale of draft picks was so small.
 

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TE T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings

Minnesota Vikings got: Hockenson, 2023 fourth-round pick, 2024 conditional fourth-round pick
Detroit Lions got: 2023 second-round pick, 2024 third-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Original grade for the Vikings: B+
New grade for the Vikings: B+

Since being traded to Minnesota, Hockenson ranks second behind Travis Kelce in receiving yards by a tight end (853). Some of that, though, is due to the high passing volume in Minnesota, and some of Hockenson's advanced numbers aren't quite as special. For example, his 1.55 yards per route run ranks 15th among tight ends with at least 100 routes run since the trade. His Receiver Tracking Metrics are pedestrian, with a 50 overall score last season (10th best among TEs) and 46 this season entering Week 5 (15th best among TEs).

Hockenson has helped change the Vikings' offense in other ways. He has taken on a different role, catching shorter passes with an average depth of target of 6.6 yards as opposed to 8.1 yards in Detroit. What also changed in that time was Justin Jefferson's depth of target, which was 8.3 yards on average in 2022 before Hockenson's arrival and has been 11.0 ever since. The change in Jefferson's routes hasn't resulted in more efficient play for him; in fact, Jefferson's yards per route run has dropped slightly since pre-Hockenson 2022. But Kirk Cousins' numbers have improved, from 6.0 yards per dropback to 6.4 and a light QBR jump from 51 to 55. Is that due to Hockenson? It's hard to say for sure, but having an underneath option in Hockenson to free up Jefferson is at least a plausible explanation.

The trade compensation here works out to the equivalent of a third-round pick going to the Lions, according to ESPN's draft pick valuations. The Vikings also paid Hockenson, signing him to a pricey deal in August that averages $16.5 million annually, the second-highest average per year among tight ends. They had to give up a pick in order to give him that contract, but he's young. If the wide receiver market explodes again, one can imagine a world where the tight end market goes with it too.

Original grade for the Lions: B
New grade for the Lions: B

It's amazing reading back to what I wrote a year ago, noting that the Lions "know they aren't contenders" as part of the justification for the deal. It turns out they were pretty close, only missing out on the 2022 playoffs due to a tiebreaker. Would they have made it with Hockenson? It's at least possible.


Ultimately, the Lions' trade netted them a third-rounder before they had to pay Hockenson. Often that's good business. I'm guessing in the offseason the Lions might have had some light regrets about letting him go given how good their team ended up being, his youth and Jameson Williams' suspension (thus leaving them short-handed on pass-catchers). But now, after drafting Sam LaPorta in Round 2 and seeing his start, they probably feel fine about it. LaPorta is averaging 2.4 yards per route run so far.

The trade compensation here works out to the equivalent of a third-round pick going to the Lions, according to ESPN's draft pick valuations. The Vikings also paid Hockenson, signing him to a pricey deal in August that averages $16.5 million annually, the second-highest average per year among tight ends. They had to give up a pick in order to give him that contract, but he's young. If the wide receiver market explodes again, one can imagine a world where the tight end market goes with it too.

Original grade for the Lions: B
New grade for the Lions: B

It's amazing reading back to what I wrote a year ago, noting that the Lions "know they aren't contenders" as part of the justification for the deal. It turns out they were pretty close, only missing out on the 2022 playoffs due to a tiebreaker. Would they have made it with Hockenson? It's at least possible.


Ultimately, the Lions' trade netted them a third-rounder before they had to pay Hockenson. Often that's good business. I'm guessing in the offseason the Lions might have had some light regrets about letting him go given how good their team ended up being, his youth and Jameson Williams' suspension (thus leaving them short-handed on pass-catchers). But now, after drafting Sam LaPorta in Round 2 and seeing his start, they probably feel fine about it. LaPorta is averaging 2.4 yards per route run so far.
 

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DE Robert Quinn to the Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles got: Quinn
Chicago Bears got: 2023 fourth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 26

Original grade for the Eagles: A
New grade for the Eagles: C-

This trade did not work out, but the process was good. Quinn had long been a pass-rush disruptor, having recorded four of the top 20 pass rush win rate seasons at edge since 2017 and registering 18.5 sacks in 2021. For a Super Bowl contender like the Eagles, that kind of player makes sense to bet on.

The bet didn't pay off. Quinn managed just one sack for the Eagles in nine games played (postseason included). His win rate in that time was actually pretty strong -- 21% -- but he only had 61 pass rushes in those nine games due to low playing time. He also missed time during the regular season with a knee injury.

Original grade for the Bears: B-
New grade for the Bears: B

Trading Quinn was a no-brainer for the Bears. They were rebuilding, Quinn was 32 and the remaining years on his contract were pricey.


At the time, I thought what the Bears received in exchange for a player who had had 18.5 sacks the year prior was a little underwhelming -- particularly since they had to pick up the tab on Quinn's remaining salary (less the veteran minimum). Ultimately, it turned out Quinn had little left in the tank, so the Bears made out well in getting a fourth-round pick, even if they had to pay a reported $7.1 million in remaining salary.



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OLB Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins

Miami Dolphins got: Chubb, 2025 fifth-round pick
Denver Broncos got: 49ers 2023 first-round pick, Dolphins 2024 fourth-round pick, RB Chase Edmonds
Trade date: Nov. 1

Original grade for the Dolphins: B+
New grade for the Dolphins: C

This was the football equivalent of me getting hypnotized by a shiny object. I was high on the Dolphins at the time of this trade. Chubb's win rates were on fire, and the Rams' Von Miller acquisition in 2021 was floating around my subconscious. I should have known better.

The Dolphins paid a first-round pick (plus!) for the right to pay Chubb a huge contract. And while he played well in Denver in 2022, his performance had been largely disappointing to that point.

His level of play dropped after the trade. He had racked up 5.5 sacks in Denver but managed just 2.5 sacks the rest of the season for Miami. His pass rush win rate dropped from 27% to 20% at edge (still above average, to be fair). In 2023, his win rate has rebounded to a strong 30% at edge (second best), though a huge part of that was taking advantage of Giants backup tackles on Sunday (he only ranks 12th if we remove that game). The sacks haven't come, either, as he has just one this season.

Original grade for the Broncos: B
New grade for the Broncos: A


This is pretty simple now: The Broncos were noncontenders unloading Chubb's contract at a steep price when he already was on his fifth-year option. He wasn't worth anything to them the rest of 2022 (and, perhaps, in 2023 too), so getting value for him then made sense. And the draft pick provides a much higher potential for surplus value than re-signing Chubb would.
 

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LB Roquan Smith to Ravens

Baltimore Ravens got: Smith
Chicago Bears got: LB A.J. Klein, 2023 second-round pick, 2023 fifth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 31

Original grade for the Ravens: B
New grade for the Ravens: B+

This new grade might raise eyebrows, because Smith has been exceptional for the Ravens since they acquired him. He was a Pro Bowler and a first-team All-Pro in 2022, he ranks second in run stop win rate among linebackers since being acquired by Baltimore and he is tied for first in Pro Football Focus grade among linebackers in 2023.

All of that is why this grade has gone up. But let's not pretend like this wasn't an incredibly expensive maneuver for an off-ball linebacker, because a critical factor in evaluating the results of this trade is that the Ravens ended up signing Smith to a five-year, $100 million contract that includes $45 million fully guaranteed.

At the time of this trade, I figured the Ravens might rent Smith for 2022 before letting him walk in free agency for a third-round compensatory selection. By signing Smith, it became the equivalent of dealing a borderline first- or second-round pick for the right to pay Smith.

That's usually a bad bet, but it is one that can pay off if the player plays as well as Smith has. However, the surplus value is limited because the costs were so high.

Original grade for the Bears: B
New grade for the Bears: C+

In a vacuum, trading Smith was probably a good process. A rebuilding team getting draft pick compensation for a player you were going to have to pay soon is usually a smart bet. But if we allow ourselves the right to evaluate this decision in conjunction with a few others, it looks worse.

Specifically, the Bears' decision to sign Tremaine Edmunds to a four-year, $72 million deal that included almost $42 million in fully guaranteed money, just shy of the fully guaranteed money Smith received, raises questions. While Edmunds was coming off a nice season with the Buffalo Bills, he isn't nearly the same caliber of player as Smith. The Bears also signed T.J. Edwards to a reasonable contract (that I very much liked at the time), but it meant investing even more into the off-ball linebacker position.

Dealing Smith, taking the draft capital and using more affordable resources on the off-ball linebacker position would have been more prudent. That Smith has played so well since leaving hurts a little in retrospect, though the Bears are still rebuilding, so the production would have been squandered.
 

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1. Anthony Edwards wants it all​

OK, the dunk. My god, the dunk. Edwards planted just inside the foul line. He didn't quite leap over Utah Jazz forward John Collins, but if you freeze the dunk at the right moment, it doesn't look too far from that.

It was an act of thunderous basketball violence that is still reverberating. Every time Edwards catches the ball with momentum, you sense some ineffable danger. The crowd murmurs with a strange mix of excitement and fear. Some opposing players between Edwards and the basket must feel some fear too. Imagine being one of Edwards' teammates and sensing that -- how it would embolden you.

Edwards has breathed fire into the Wolves in the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid.

Minnesota is 4-3 since losing Towns to a meniscus injury. One loss came in overtime. A second came down to the last shot against the Denver Nuggets, with Minnesota splitting center minutes between Kyle Anderson and Luka Garza. These Wolves have resourcefulness and steel to them.

They have wallopped teams by 14 points per 100 possessions in about 550 minutes when Edwards and Gobert play and Towns sits. What was once a feature of their nightly rotation is now their template for survival.

With Towns sidelined, Edwards could have hoarded the offense -- hunted the spectacular while rationalizing that his team needed him to shoot more. Instead, he has put forth some of the cleanest passing of his career.

Take this three-possession sequence against the Jazz on Monday -- three consecutive pick-and-rolls with Garza on the left side:

Walker Kessler leaves Garza to corral Edwards in the paint; Edwards reads that and hooks a pass back to Garza after two dribbles.

Take two:

Having seen Utah's coverage once, Edwards is confident he can rock Kessler backward, split defenders and plow forward.

Take three:

Kessler ventures out higher; Edwards accelerates around him, draws an extra layer of defense and waits for cutters.

That's the same play three times in 60 seconds, with Edwards making three different reads and producing three different results -- all profitable.

Advanced playmaking need not be fancy -- not when you can score like Edwards, and draw so much attention.

When Edwards makes the simple pass, Minnesota's offense hums. Everyone is involved. The ball often makes its way back to Edwards, who can then attack a backpedaling defense in flux.

Edwards is doing this more, seeing it result in wins and high-scoring totals for him. The feedback cycle is flowing.

The Wolves need Towns to make a deep playoff run. His shooting is oxygen. He raises their ceiling where it needs to be to win two or more rounds. Any Finals team needs a few easy wins along the postseason road -- games in which you take luck out of the equation. A hot shooting game from Towns combined with Minnesota's relentless defense is their most reasonable blowout path.


Imagine some of those swing-swing sequences Edwards is triggering more ending in Towns 3s or Gobert dunks. Maybe Edwards is imagining that too -- or being pushed by his coaches to do so. Good teams learn about themselves when they are short-handed. The Wolves are learning more about Edwards every game, and what they see is special.
 

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2. When the Phoenix Suns lose the flow​

The Suns' offense is fine -- on paper, at least -- and probably in reality against most teams. They righted the ship and moved into a tie with the Dallas Mavericks for No. 6 in the West with home wins this week over the remains of the Philadelphia 76ers and Atlanta Hawks. (Dallas owns the tie-breaker.) Phoenix has scored 123 points per 100 possessions with Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker on the floor -- about a point above the Boston Celtics' No. 1-ranked offense. The Suns' issues have been injuries, defense and depth -- probably in that order.

But on sour nights, there are too many possessions like this. Keep your eyes on Beal in the right corner. You won't have trouble tracking him:

The Suns scored 129 points in that game against the Milwaukee Bucks -- their fourth loss to an elite team in a two-week span. (The Suns are 19-20 against teams above .500). They lost because they gave up 140. Their superstars are so talented, the Suns can win playing stagnant isolation basketball.

But you wonder about the toll of these sorts of possessions. They are evidence of a disconnected team -- at least in that moment. Does that lack of connectivity -- of spirit -- bleed into defense? You can play disconnected yet efficient offense. Disconnected defenses are dead on arrival.

Beal has Damian Lillard on him during that yawn of a possession. The whole point of this enterprise is for Beal to bring Lillard into the orbit of either Booker or (even better, because of the size mismatch) Durant. Set a screen! Cut! Do something! Why aren't Booker and Durant calling him up for picks? Why aren't the coaches yelling?

What makes this lifelessness doubly frustrating is that Phoenix has halves and games in which it strikes the right balance.

In the playoffs -- if the Suns get there -- you face the best defenses. You can't afford to make things easier for them by playing stationary, predictable offense -- even if you have superstar talent. It chips away at your margin for error. You will generate fewer 3s and shots at the rim -- already a (slight) issue for Phoenix.


The Suns' three stars have played only 29 games together. Maybe time is all they need to rediscover their collective verve. Time, though, runs short.

3. One fun thing in Charlotte​

The Charlotte Hornets doubling as the Oklahoma City Blue has returned Aleksej Pokusevski to our lives and given us Vasilije Micic unleashed. Micic is the league's oldest rookie at 30, drafted 10 years ago as a stash guy by the Process Philadelphia 76ers. The Thunder acquired him in Philly's Al Horford salary dump, and Micic finally arrived after developing into one of the best players in the EuroLeague.

Given Micic's contract -- three years, $23.5 million with a team option -- it was clear he was partly a trade asset; the Thunder indeed included him in their deal for Gordon Hayward.

Micic had moments when it looked like he might emerge as part of Oklahoma City's bench rotation in a secondary connector role. He has more control of the offense in Charlotte, and it turns out Micic can score some in the NBA -- including with a shoulder-checking mean streak:

Micic is shooting 57% on 2s and averaging 12 points with the Hornets -- with four 20-plus outings in Charlotte's past eight games. He is a very clever passer.


Micic is shooting only 29% on 3s; he was so-so from the EuroLeague's shorter line. Point-of-attack defense is a challenge, though being 6-foot-5 helps. But Micic can stick as a solid backup.
 

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4. Amen Thompson and the Houston Rockets would like your attention​

You thought the play-in loser's bracket was the worst-case scenario for the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors? The Rockets have won nine of 10, creeping 1½ games from the Warriors and putting both starry heavyweights one mini-slump from oblivion.

The hot stretch started before Alperen Sengun suffered a leg injury, but the Rockets have kept winning without him -- in part because Thompson has exploded in Sengun's starting spot. Jabari Smith Jr. -- a winning player, period -- guards opposing centers now, but Thompson has absorbed Sengun's role as pick-and-roll screener for Fred VanVleet and the scorching Jalen Green.

Thompson's nonexistent jumper -- he's 8-of-52 on 3s -- does less harm to Houston's spacing when he's in the action as a screener. He can dart to the rim for vicious dunks and scooping layups, and he's a canny passer on the move. Thompson thrives along the recesses of the baseline, cutting for slams, leaping for put-backs and touching nifty interior dimes. He's a menace in transition.

Thompson is a strong 6-foot-7 and has emerged already as one of the best and most versatile perimeter defenders in the league. He is feisty and smart, with hands that swipe in a blur:

Thompson stays down on Kyle Kuzma's pump fake, then disabuses Kuzma of the notion of even trying to drive. Kuzma dishes to Deni Avdija, goes to set a screen and tries to trick Thompson by slipping out of the pick early. Nope.

It's unclear how Thompson and Sengun fit. Sengun lives mostly in the paint; he's a below-average jump-shooter with a slow release and a habit of taking one-legged flamingo shots for no reason. (To be clear, I am pro-flamingo shot. Weird is good.)

Thompson doesn't really function as a lead ball handler -- it's tough sledding without a proven jumper -- and the Rockets have Green and VanVleet for that. Dillon Brooks is the designated wing stopper.


Presuming a full recovery from leg surgery, Tari Eason is coming for a starting spot. Cam Whitmore has earned minutes. Houston has seven potential young building blocks. Part of the fun is figuring out which combinations work best, and which might never work well.


5. Have the (very good) Orlando Magic evolved beyond Markelle Fultz?​

Fultz averaged 14 points last season and hit 47% on midrangers. He even shot 27-of-87 -- 31% -- on 3s. Defenses sagged way off of Fultz, but he made up for it by eating up space with slippery zig-zag moves and hesitation dribbles -- and threading slick interior passes from weird angles. Fultz becoming a back-end starting point guard didn't seem unfeasible.

Fultz's place on the Magic now seems precarious. Fultz has missed half the season because of knee issues, and the Magic moved on without him. He's a backup now; Orlando's revamped starting five -- Jalen Suggs, Gary Harris, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr. -- is plus-56 in 191 minutes. (Banchero gets better and more well-rounded every night -- a budding superstar.)

Harris -- Fultz's replacement -- doesn't do much heavy lifting, but he's a threat from deep and defends hard. That's all Orlando needs with Wagner, Banchero and Suggs handling the ball. That group with Cole Anthony in Harris' spot is one of Orlando's most intriguing lineups. (Harris left Orlando's rout of the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday night early with a sore right foot.)

Fultz is duplicative on bench units. Anthony and Joe Ingles split ballhandling duties in those lineups, and the Magic might keep one of Wagner and Banchero on the floor when the games really matter. Fultz just isn't that useful away from the ball:

He has backslid to 38% on midrangers and is 1-of-11 on 3s. Fultz plays hard and makes small positive plays -- extra passes, hustle rebounds, flare screens. He's a popular teammate. His role grows murkier as the Magic surge.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Isaac might be the single most interesting backup in the NBA -- and the best per-minute defender. The Magic's defense ratchets to a rare level -- in intensity and execution -- when Isaac and Suggs play together. It's a little unnerving. Orlando has allowed 98.4 points per 100 possessions in 109 minutes with that duo on the floor -- 10 points stingier than Minnesota's top-ranked defense. Isaac is on a nice run from deep and looks more confident overall on offense.

Suggs and Isaac are a frenzy of fast feet, reaching arms and anticipatory movements. You almost hear their defense -- a continuous roar. What they did to Charlotte on Tuesday -- the Hornets trailed 67-26 and had 31 points at halftime -- should be illegal in all 50 states.

Fultz is a solid defender, but the Magic, No. 3 in points allowed per possession, have plenty of those.

Fultz is an unrestricted free agent this summer.
 

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Need this dawg



A.J. Dybantsa, the No. 1 prospect in the 2025 class, has narrowed his list of schools, telling ESPN he is considering Alabama, Auburn, Baylor, BYU, Kansas, Kansas State and North Carolina.

Dybantsa, who has visited Auburn, says he plans to make official visits to the rest of the schools on his list ahead of his college decision in the winter.

"I'm looking to build a relationship with a head coach who doesn't sugarcoat anything, but we can still have that bond both on and off the court," he said. "[We can] talk about things on and off the court and play to my strengths while helping me with my weaknesses.

"The list is based on the coaches who spoke with my dad the most. I will decide in February."


Dybantsa is in the midst of a whirlwind spring and summer. He transferred high schools, won a gold medal with Team USA in the FIBA U17 World Cup and joined the high-powered Oakland Soldiers on the showcase circuit.

The 6-foot-9, 205-pound wing was dominant this summer. He averaged 22.6 points and led the Elite Youth Basketball League with 197 points in transition. Dybantsa shot 82% at the line over 173 attempts and shot 38% from beyond the arc in catch-and-shoot situations, per Synergy Sports.

Soon, the former Prolific Prep star will travel with his new high school team, Utah Prep, to Shanghai, China, for games against teams from Serbia, Japan and Australia in an event hosted by the Shanghai Sharks from Aug. 6-11 that is as much an educational trip as a basketball one.

When he returns, it's crunch time for teams vying for the potential top pick in the 2026 NBA draft.

"These are the pillars that will define my choice for a program," Dybantsa said. "[It needs to be] family-oriented, a winning program, offer development both on the court and in their strength program, and for me to be one-and-done and ready to impact."

And just how much will NIL impact Dybantsa's decision?

"It's a factor, but it's not the reason we are picking a school," said Anicet "Ace" Dybantsa, A.J.'s father. "We left out schools that have a lot of money. A.J. will go where he feels he can have the most success on the court."

ESPN spoke to both Dybantsa and his father for their thoughts on each program of the final seven programs on his list.
 

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Alabama
A.J.: "I was coached by [current Alabama assistant coach] Preston Murphy as a freshman when I was with Expressions in the EYBL. We spoke with coach Nate Oats and he feels the Brandon Miller comparisons are real. I watched Miller in college, he has a lot of Paul George in him. He's one of the better young players in the NBA. If Victor Wembanyama wasn't in the draft, Miller could've been the Rookie of the Year and No. 1 pick in 2023. Their play style fits my game."


Auburn
A.J.: "I took an official visit there in March. After my visit, they think I can be compared to Jabari Smith and Isaac Okoro."

Ace: "Bruce Pearl is from Sharon, Mass. It's 15 minutes away from where we live in Brockton. We like his style. We went to a game during break. There were no students on campus and the game was sold out. We like the vibes. Coach Pearl is a no-nonsense guy."


Baylor
A.J.: "They believe I can have as good of a season or better than Ja'Kobe Walter. The play style is similar. Scott Drew and [former associate head coach] John Jakus came to Prolific Prep. Jakus is now the head coach at FAU. I watched Baylor growing up. They had great success with Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell and recently Keyonte George."
 
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