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Derek Lee

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Sean Payton doesn't forget anything​

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Broncos head coach Sean Payton walking on the field during a preseason game against the L.A. Rams. Stephen Speranza for ESPN
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    Seth Wickersham, ESPN Senior WriterSep 5, 2023, 08:00 AM ET
At about 3 a.m., after hours of drinks and music and hugs, head coach Sean Payton picked the Lombardi Trophy up off a couch and gave a short speech. This was back in February 2010, at the Miami Intercontinental Hotel, the night the Saints won Super Bowl XLIV. In a private room, Payton, Kenny Chesney, some players, and a few randoms, myself included, were hanging out. Lighting was low, and the walls marble. Half-full cups were scattered. Hair messy from people rubbing his head during hugs, Payton wore a striped shirt. He held the trophy, and with rock band Better Than Ezra thumping through the walls from the nearby ballroom, he addressed the room.
"People are going to say we made history," he said. "But nobody will remember except us."
He went on for a few minutes, but that was the heart of it. Moments later, he stepped back and stood next to Chesney, gripping the trophy by the neck, not wanting the night to end.


"I REMEMBER," Payton says over breakfast on a July morning 13 years later.
We're sitting in the clubhouse of Gozzer Ranch, a golf club near the lakeside mountains of Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, with a clientele that includes Kim Kardashian, Justin Bieber and Chris Pratt. Payton has vacationed here for years. Each day at 8 a.m. he joins Wayne Gretzky, John Elway, Tampa Bay Lightning coach Jon Cooper, former MLB vet Pat Burrell, former NHL tough guy Kelly Chase and a few businessmen -- "Breakfast Club," they call themselves -- at a corner table, with a view of the valley. They eat eggs and toast, down coffee and divide into teams for the day, wagering thousands each round in prop bets, and prop bets on prop bets, minutiae only they understand, a band of competitive adrenaline junkies.
"You coming?" Gretzky says, walking by.

"I'm playing," Payton says.

He doesn't wear a watch during the month he spends in Idaho. "I like having no plans," he says, bouncing between relaxed and edgy this morning, about to begin his first season with Denver after a year out of the game. "Livin' on a Prayer" comes through the clubhouse speakers. Payton was at a Bon Jovi concert when he got the call from the Saints to be head coach in 2006. He enjoys reminiscing about the joy of his rise, a career that started in 1988 when he drove from Chicago to become an offensive assistant at San Diego State. "Broke down in Denver, ironically," he says. That beginning was long before he became a champion in New Orleans at age 46. And longer still before what came after that -- a suspension from the league for Bountygate in 2012 and what he has come to see as a pattern of targets and slights dogging him and his teams for over a decade since. He's 59 now, graying at the temples, squinting without reading glasses, and unmistakably eager for his second shot at a Lombardi.
When I ask, Payton says he remembers wanting that first speech to be just for his players and coaches -- a brief "Shawshank moment." But there was a Gatorade bath. Cameras. Hugs. Security leading him to a stage for the trophy presentation. League suits telling Saints players who was allowed on the stage. Payton making clear in profane terms that he wouldn't go onstage if certain players weren't allowed. One microphone after another. Before he knew it, the locker room was empty and aides were ushering him to the postgame party. Behind a police escort, the bus motorcade zipped down the freeway. Payton stared out the window into the Miami night, tires humming on the asphalt, and it hit him that this collection of players and coaches and staff would never again be alone in the same room. He asked the driver to ease up, slowing time because he couldn't stop it.
The party was in full swing when the team arrived at the Intercontinental. By the time Sean Payton told those of us gathered around that nobody would remember, the forgetting had already begun.


HIS GOLF CART is labeled PAYTON, and it has the basics: a pencil, scorecard, drink cooler. His wife, Skylene Montgomery, keeps all kinds of stuff in hers, Band-Aids and Tylenol. A few years ago, Payton rolled his cart on a sharp declining curve and broke his hand. The club reworked the path to make it less dangerous, and Payton later drilled the screws that had fastened his hand into the wooden guardrails on the turn. It's now called Coach's Corner.
He steers past a putting green, where Elway and others are warming up. He joins his foursome at the first tee.
"How we doing, Coach?" Kelly Chase says.
Payton, then coach of the New Orleans Saints, speaking during the postgame news conference at the 2018 NFC Championship Game. Though the Rams won, the game remains controversial after an uncalled pass interference penalty sullied the outcome. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert
Coach is good, doing some of his favorite things: golfing, breathing crisp Idaho air, talking about ways to improve the game he loves, and digging at the league office.
"I'm cynical when it comes to New York," he says.
Before the Broncos hired Payton, we had last caught up in early 2022, just after the Saints had commissioned a study of penalties drawn by each NFL team over the previous four seasons. New Orleans ranked 30, 31, 32 and 32. It seemed impossible to believe, with Payton's high-flying offense and passing-friendly rule changes. The data concluded that the Saints were the only team in the bottom five in penalties drawn for four straight seasons since 2006. That year is symbolic to Payton. It's when he was hired by the Saints -- and when Roger Goodell was elected as NFL commissioner. "The irony of it f---ing all," he says.
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Payton, then coach of the New Orleans Saints, speaking during the postgame news conference at the 2018 NFC Championship Game. Though the Rams won, the game remains controversial after an uncalled pass interference penalty sullied the outcome. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Coach is good, doing some of his favorite things: golfing, breathing crisp Idaho air, talking about ways to improve the game he loves, and digging at the league office.
"I'm cynical when it comes to New York," he says.
Before the Broncos hired Payton, we had last caught up in early 2022, just after the Saints had commissioned a study of penalties drawn by each NFL team over the previous four seasons. New Orleans ranked 30, 31, 32 and 32. It seemed impossible to believe, with Payton's high-flying offense and passing-friendly rule changes. The data concluded that the Saints were the only team in the bottom five in penalties drawn for four straight seasons since 2006. That year is symbolic to Payton. It's when he was hired by the Saints -- and when Roger Goodell was elected as NFL commissioner. "The irony of it f---ing all," he says.
Payton presented the penalties study to the league. There was no response. "I think it starts with Roger," Payton says.
After 16 years in New Orleans, Payton was burned out on an existential level. The job was hard enough to do under ideal circumstances; to have his legacy subject to blown calls and bureaucracy left deep scars. He decided to walk away. "I got tired," he says. "There was a feeling, I would say on my part, of losing the jump balls in this game. You know? Success or lack of success with the Saints is a blip on the NFL."
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Payton, talking to his mentor, Bill Parcells, during pregame of a Saints-Cowboys game in 2006. Throughout Payton's career Parcells has offered his counsel, advising Payton to avoid "the landmines" when dealing with the NFL front office. Khampha Bouaphanh/Fort Worth Star-Telegram via Getty Images
The chance to win a jump ball was essential when Payton returned to coach Denver after a season in broadcasting. The Walton-Penner family that owns the Broncos is by far the league's richest ownership group, and Payton believes the league is invested in Denver's success, an iconic franchise that hasn't been in the playoffs since winning Super Bowl 50. With a new start has come a promise to himself: no time or energy wasted carrying old grievances or fighting old wars. "You look at utilizing your battery life better," he says. Before the Broncos hired him, Payton spoke to his mentor, Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells, who knows how professional football encourages and rewards some of a coach's worst competitive impulses. Parcells had advice for Payton, and it had nothing to do with fixing Russell Wilson or stopping Patrick Mahomes.
"You know exactly where the f---ing land mines are," he said. "Avoid them."

PAYTON'S SECOND DRIVE lands in the brush to the right of the fairway. It has happened before, judging by the dried bloody scrapes on his calves. He floors his cart to the general vicinity.
"Nothing worse than f---ing losing balls," he says.
He plays golf like he calls a game: aggressively. For years, one of the NFL's scariest sights was Payton after a big play, visor pulled low, mouth shielded by the play sheet, neurons firing, bloodthirsty and dialing up another dagger. Assistants often pleaded with him to not call all of his shiny new plays on the first drive. "I'll unwrap the present before Christmas," he says with a childlike joy in his eyes. He often looked more physically ill when settling for a field goal than after a loss. Midway through training camp in Denver, he went down a rabbit hole and watched every Saints touchdown during his tenure: 807 in all, the most during any 16-year span in league history. He showed the stats to former Saints QB Drew Brees, who was visiting camp.
"I had no idea," Payton said.
"Lotta touchdowns," Brees said.
The Broncos invited a shock to the system when they hired Payton. There's palpable tension in the building. Payton doesn't care if he comes off like an a--hole, or if he is an a--hole. Training camp practices have been long and physical. Every player has worn a Guardian cap. Denver media, which is New York-like in its volume -- more than 50 reporters logged on for Payton's pre-draft Zoom -- have seen access curtailed. Staffers seem cautious around Payton, not wanting to say something that prompts an outburst. Payton is the program, everything flowing out of his fierce ingenuity and ethic. He showed the team a video of a 2022 Ford Bronco driving off a cliff, letting players know last year is over. He told Wilson that to salvage his career he needed to focus less on Russell Inc. "Will you f---ing stop kissing all the babies?" he said. "You're not running for public office."
"He can be difficult," says Saints general manager Mickey Loomis, whom Payton refers to as his best friend. "But he's two to three steps ahead of everyone."
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Payton's orange tie, lapel pin and pocket square on full display as he is introduced during a news conference at Broncos headquarters on Feb. 6, 2023. AP Photo/David Zalubowski
 

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When Payton first became a head coach, Parcells told him that each day five problems that had nothing to do with winning or losing would come up. "If you can't deal with that, get another job," he said. Parcells was the poster boy for being unable to let things go. He fought everyone from the media to the league office to rivals in his own building. He won a lot of football games, creating a program based on ruthlessness that lives on in his protégés around the league. But he says now that he also destroyed any semblance of happiness in a dream job.
"I was the worst," he says. "It's a waste of time."
In New Orleans, Payton ended up fighting the exact wars Parcells warned him about, seemingly unable to help himself. Battling the league on everything from sideline mics to entrance tunnels at neutral-site games. He got upset one year because the Christmas tree at the Saints' facility was too small. For a good year and a half, Payton gave a man stationed on the sideline evil looks, convinced he was a league spy. Payton later apologized to the man when he learned that he was the on-site concussion doctor.
Winning Super Bowl XLIV intensified those urges. And Bountygate two years later left Payton fundamentally altered. The league office and Payton agreed that he wasn't a direct participant in the pay-for-knockout system orchestrated by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. But the Saints ignored multiple warnings to end the program, and Goodell felt Payton covered up evidence and lied. The league used the central theme in Payton's autobiography -- his obsessive levels of control -- as evidence. Payton thought he would get a penalty similar to what Bill Belichick got for Spygate, after seven years of cheating and three ignored warnings: the maximum fine of $500,000. But that scandal didn't have the specter of player safety hovering over it, and Goodell suspended Payton for a year without pay, the first NFL head-coach suspension since 1978. He appealed to Goodell in person. Both men ended up screaming at one another. "With Roger, you got a red face," Payton says.
Then-Saints owner Tom Benson faced more criticism from within the league after Bountygate than when he threatened to move the Saints to San Antonio for a year after Hurricane Katrina. Commentators, executives in the league office, and then-owners Dan Rooney of the Steelers and Jerry Richardson of the Panthers urged Benson to fire Payton. The way they lined up against him heightened Payton's anger. At a dinner shortly after he was reinstated, in 2013, he sought out Richardson and Rooney. "I just want to thank you for your support while I was gone," he said, making sure they knew that he knew.
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Payton reacts after the infamous pass interference no-call between Saints WR Tommylee Lewis and Rams DB Nickell Robey-Coleman in the 2018 NFC title game. How egregious was this missed call? After the game the league office called Payton to apologize. Chris Graythen via Getty Images

YEARS AFTER BOUNTYGATE and the suspension, in the spring of 2019 -- after he had become known as much for his grievances as his brilliant offenses -- Payton stood to speak during a special meeting with owners and league executives in Arizona. The topic was the quality of NFL officiating. The room got quiet, anticipating Payton might explode.
It was just months after an egregious non-call on pass interference cost the Saints an NFC championship. Rams cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman drilled Saints wideout Tommylee Lewis on a flare route with 1:49 left. The Saints went on to lose in overtime. Nobody -- not the league office, which called Payton after the game to apologize, not Rams coach Sean McVay, not even Robey-Coleman -- disputed it was a blown call. In the days after the game, Payton ate junk food and stared at the TV until dawn, anything to "numb the pain with distraction," Skylene says. He downed every kind of chocolate ice cream from Jeni's in New Orleans, and at one point dressed down a delivery guy who messed up his order.
The Nola No-Call had been especially galling to him because the play itself was Payton at his most tactically savage. He had inserted Lewis as a running back to confuse the defense and operated off a quick count -- a cheetah play, in Payton parlance -- so the Rams wouldn't have time to adjust. After studying the play, Payton felt the problem was an all-star officiating crew that mixed a junior official, who reached for his flag, with a senior one, who saw a clean play. If the referees had known one another, he believed, the junior one wouldn't have deferred. The idea of an all-star crew was a "solution" born out of a labor dispute between the league and the referees' union, not the competition committee. In Payton's eyes, it was top-down overthinking -- and another example of the world conspiring against him.
All teams occasionally feel screwed by the league, but after Bountygate, Payton's quick trigger had become his métier. October 2014: Payton said it was "crazy" that the Saints had to travel to play a Thursday night game after a Sunday night game, two years after the league made him the poster boy for disregard of player safety. October 2014, again: accused -- but later cleared -- by the league of illegally stashing a player on the practice squad. December 2015: seething at the lack of flags thrown after Carolina had 12 men in the huddle twice and seemed to commit pass interference on the game's final play and suggesting that high school refs are superior to NFL ones. December 2017: dismayed that the league hired Mike Cerullo, an ex-Saints employee-turned-whistleblower. December 2019: unhappy with officiating again. And those are just the fights Payton addressed publicly.
Now that he had the floor at the owners meetings in Arizona, though, Payton was measured rather than unhinged. Payton echoed Belichick's idea to keep the number of challenges at two per half but make any call reviewable. "We're not looking to get every call perfect, but certainly the crucial ones," Payton said. "We'll know it's crucial because a coach will throw a flag."
 

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Al Riveron, then the league's head of officiating, took questions from the room. It started to resemble fans at a bar. These meetings are always combustible, and even though Payton was calm, others were impassioned. Bills owner Terry Pegula lit into Riveron over accountability. "You need to just fire somebody on the spot," he said. Giants owner John Mara defended Riveron, saying it was "unacceptable" to go after him for referees who make split-second decisions.
The meeting ended with acrimony rather than resolution. Payton once took pride in being on the competition committee, which NFL executive Troy Vincent presides over. But he came to view it as something the league does for optics rather than solutions, not the only one with that opinion, but one of the most prominent. The committee's response to the Nola No-Call -- making pass interference reviewable -- lasted only one year. Nobody cared enough to put it up for a vote again. In 2020, when the league fined Payton for COVID-19 violations and he refused to pay, he told Vincent, "Take me off the f---ing sham committee!"
After Payton interviewed with the Broncos, a Washington Post reporter tweeted that Payton supposedly feared a power struggle with the Walton-Penner group. Payton was furious, not only because the notion of a power struggle between a coach and owner is "the dumbest thing ever," he says -- owners always win -- but because it triggered a familiar suspicion of the league possibly planting something with a reporter, even if he lacked proof. Payton asked Penner to call anyone at the Saints about him, warts and all. Vincent called Penner, too, not to warn him about Payton but to recommend him. Still, after the Broncos hired him, Payton was suspicious of everything, and -- again -- wanted Vincent to know he knew.
He texted Vincent: Thanks for your help.

"LET'S GO," Payton says after a drive lands on a fairway. "It's going to be a little different now."
He's stewing after missing birdie on the previous hole. No matter how many times he tells himself to freeze his head on his backswing, he moves it anyway.
"Gotta correct it," he says.
Like football, golf is a game for people who lash out, then turn inward for answers. Friends say Payton struggles to let go, with wars against the league as evidence. What he's good at is finding ways to get things done at a high level, even in imperfect situations. He helped turn the Saints into a champion, dealt with an accusation in 2010 from a former Saints employee that he took painkillers without a medical condition, which he denied, and produced two more playoff teams after Bountygate. Then after a midcareer morass of three straight 7-9 seasons -- "We lost our culture," he says, "and it was my fault" -- helped rebuild the team into a Super Bowl contender, only to lose devastating playoff games three years in row.
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Payton and L.A. Rams coach Sean McVay walk around the field before the two teams face off in a preseason game. Both coaches hope to turn their teams around after disappointing results last year. Stephen Speranza for ESPN
He considers himself a teacher, and he knows how to make a point. In one meeting in Denver, he wanted to impress upon the Broncos the importance of financial planning. He passed out thumb drives to each player, then asked them to stand if their drive had a red dot. Three-quarters of the room stood, roughly the percentage of NFL players who are broke three years after retirement. Once before a game against the Patriots, Payton dyed his hair and dressed up as Belichick and did an hourlong impression of the exact meeting happening in New England. It left the players laughing and motivated, and the Saints handed New England its worst loss of the Belichick era. "One of Sean's greatest capacities is to take whatever has happened and put it in the background," Loomis says. "He doesn't forget. But he bounces back."
Somewhat. Payton doesn't know why his grievances always simmer beneath the surface. It's not scars from a childhood spent moving around due to his father's insurance business. It's not because a youth coach broke him; he speaks of J.R. Bishop, his coach at Naperville Central High in Illinois, like a family member. The best answer arrives halfway through the round, on the tee box. Payton pulls out his scorecard and writes a note. His penmanship is precise. The hand of an architect. His mother, Jeanne, had perfect penmanship, he says. He admired and aspired to it. The way she made something mundane, something small, into something perfect. The way everything seemed to matter to her.
She died in 2002 not long after being diagnosed with cancer, and her passing coincided with a low point in Payton's career. He was the Giants' young offensive coordinator, and head coach Jim Fassel had recently stripped him of playcalling duties and made a show of it.
"I found myself sometimes more upset over what was happening professionally, and I'd just lost my mother," he remembers now. He processed his loss more than her loss.
Parcells offered him a job calling plays in Dallas, with a warning: Working for him wasn't for the well-adjusted. Married and about to start a family, Payton dedicated his life to football, coaching well with three different quarterbacks and three different styles. It became Sean Payton's offense, customized to personnel and circumstance. Then the Saints called, and any semblance of balance died. It took Payton six years as a head coach before he felt he had total command of all facets of the job. As Parcells told him, "This is the life you chose."
After Jeanne died, Payton went through her belongings and found her checkbooks. Years of immaculate handwritten entries, until disease and treatment took twin tolls. She no longer had the energy to craft every letter, and the words on the checks appeared less pristine. He saved them and still looks at them, his own penmanship an inheritance.
"I'm OCD," he says, forcing a small smile.
In the cart, he tallies his score. Sighs.
"I'm used to scoring points," he says. "Not keeping 'em."

 

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WITHOUT FOOTBALL LAST year, Payton examined how his life had changed since the last time he was away from the sport. The timing was perfect. Two days after he stepped down from the Saints, "Home Team," a scripted movie about Payton coaching his son Connor's youth football team during his suspension year, debuted on Netflix.
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Payton proposes to his now-wife Skylene Montgomery at Longway Tavern in New Orleans. Courtesy Jessica Burke/jessicathephotographer.com
Sean and Skylene ordered breakfast delivered and watched it in bed, and it was surreal for Payton, staring at Kevin James playing a quasi-true version of himself, knowing that there were aspects of the story the movie mostly missed. Payton and his longtime wife, Beth, got divorced during his suspension. He felt she was an "awesome mother" during a time when he was filled with anger and guilt. He didn't like the person he saw in the mirror in those days and knew he needed to change, but his usual redemption tools -- the NFL world and his place in it -- were unavailable. He was locked out of the NFL, per the terms of his suspension, banned from contact with anyone in the league. He was rehabbing a torn-up knee and broken leg from a freak sideline accident, torture for someone hooked on the simplicity and distraction of always being on the move. He considered doing television during his year away, but interest from networks faded fast -- a flex from the league office, Payton suspected. His isolation and anger weren't "sustainable," he says.
It was around then that he got to know Skylene, a nurse from the Charlotte area. He would send her photos of his rehab progress; she would encourage him to keep going.
Payton reentered football after his suspension, hell-bent to reclaim all that was lost. He didn't, of course -- but he did get something else. He and Skylene dated most of the next decade, unsure of whether to marry. She loved how he had a magic to him, how he captivated a room with his endless jokes and impressions. "A born storyteller," she says. She learned to handle his moods. "Sometimes he's Jekyll and Hyde, in a bit of a good way." She had her own career and was fiercely independent. They would break up and then reunite.
Then in 2019 Sean hurt his back, and the hospital wouldn't let her visit him because she wasn't family. It was time. One night in November, Saints owner Gayle Benson asked Skylene out for a night, without telling her there was a secret plan. The girls met the guys at a French Quarter bar. Sean was dressed in black, which Skylene thought was weird. He didn't like wearing black, despite it being the Saints' primary color. Country artist Heidi Newfield was there, and soon after Skylene arrived, she started to sing "Johnny and June," one of Sean and Skylene's favorite songs, which begins with a line: "There's something 'bout a man in black." Sean dropped to a knee.
They held an informal ceremony in Cabo, but officially got married at Gozzer Ranch, sweaty after a round, with Elway and Gretzky and the Breakfast Club as witnesses. Better Than Ezra's Kevin Griffin was the officiant. "I changed into a white golf outfit," Skylene says.
"We joke that we fell in love during his suspension," she says.

"Home Team," of course, told a different story. As Payton watched it, he mostly pointed out things that were wrong with the script. A bunch of little details. And he disagreed with the film's premise that he had been an absentee dad. But the final scene, when his character tells his son over tacos that he needed the team more than it needed him, that got him. He had always wanted to win so badly. He had put football first for so long, even when, maybe especially when, it was taken away from him. Had he lost himself along the way?

Sitting in bed with Skylene, he started to cry.


A FEW WEEKS later, Payton joined Fox Sports. During his years with the Saints, he had wondered about doing TV one day, helping Americans understand the game they care about most and know about least. A truth-teller in what he sees as a mostly pliant media. "It's a propaganda machine right now," he says. He interviewed with networks at the Super Bowl in Los Angeles, stressed because he knew that, for the first time in more than a decade, showing up and being Sean Payton wasn't enough.

"It was cute to see him nervous," Skylene says.

As last season neared, Payton felt healthier than he had in years. He didn't need Ambien. He didn't drink all the sugary sodas that became his vice during the season. Jimmy Johnson told him how much he regretted joining the Dolphins after two years out of football, how reentering the NFL rat race wore on him. What if Payton decided to walk away for good? He viewed the fall as a soft launch for retirement. The plan was to stay at Gozzer during the week, meeting the Breakfast Club every morning and playing golf in the afternoon. On weekends, Sean and Skylene would fly to L.A. for the show, renting a townhouse in Manhattan Beach, a life that seemed as if it could fulfill them forever.
 

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Finishing 5-12, the Broncos had the NFL's worst offense last year. Payton was brought here to breathe new life in to the franchise. The first step is avoiding pre-snap penalties. "Let's not lose track of the part about knowing how to win first," he says. Stephen Speranza for ESPN
Little went as planned. The Breakfast Club noticed that Payton seemed antsy without a team, the entire rhythm of his life since he was a high school quarterback altered. "Discombobulated," Gretzky says. Then Payton learned that Gozzer wasn't an endless summer. The circle of friends thinned out as September started: Elway to Denver, where his kids live; Gretzky and Cooper back to hockey season; businessmen back to their offices; everybody back to their lives. Soon it was just Payton, a Breakfast Club of one, eating alone at the table and struggling to cobble together a foursome.

"Lonely," he says.

At Fox, he would arrive early Sunday mornings and stay until the last down of the night game, sometimes the only one left. Producers would tell him he was free to leave.

"I got nowhere to go," he'd say.

As last season went on, Payton felt empty, missing the emotional investment in games. "He just watched football all day, and none of it mattered," Skylene says. There was one play that has always stayed with him, a reminder of why he coached. It was a fake field goal attempt from 2015, against the Colts, a throw from backup quarterback Luke McCown to tight end Ben Watson. They practiced it during the week. During the season, win or lose, Payton in a state of crisis Monday through Thursday, unable to see past imperfections of team and self, terrified that he has had his last good idea. By Friday, the cycle passes, and he sees things clearly again.

Late Friday night, when he was the only one left in the office, Payton watched practice video of the fake and saw all kinds of problems with it. They needed to block it differently and run it from the right hashmark. They fixed the problems and ran it on Sunday. McCown hit Watson for 25 yards, down to the 1-yard line. The Saints scored on the next play -- the touchdown that ended up being the difference in a Saints win. He missed that feeling of misery and desperation and, by God, of satisfaction.

"Keeps you up at night," Payton says.


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Payton looks on as players warm up during an organized training activity session in June. AP Photo/David Zalubowski

TRUTH IS, HE'S usually awake anyway. He's an anomaly among coaches, a night owl in a profession of neurotic morning people. He starts team meetings later than many clubs, around 8 or 9 a.m., because he doesn't go to bed until 2 or 3 a.m. He usually eats lunch around 4 p.m. Years ago the Saints were playing the Dolphins in London, and Payton was up watching film when Belichick called.

"What's going on?" Belichick said.

"Just working on red zone," Payton said.

They chatted for a half-hour, sharing scouting reports of each other's upcoming opponents. They'd become friendly over the years, both branches of the Parcells tree, both innovative, and of course, both feeling targeted by the league. During joint practices between the Saints and Patriots when Payton was suspended, Belichick played videos of Payton on the big screen, wanting Saints players to feel his presence.

Belichick asked him when the team was going to fly to London.

"What do you mean?" Payton said. "We're here."

It hit Belichick that Payton wasn't in New Orleans. "God damn it, what time is it?" he asked.

"Three in the morning," Payton said.

Payton's work habits aren't for everyone. At least two assistants he wanted to bring to Denver passed, burned out by their early mornings, Payton's late nights and the unyielding grind in between. "He's brilliant with the players," Loomis says, "and hard on the staff." Payton is trying to change. He hired a sleep expert to work with players and staff, and he has permitted coaches to work when they're most creative and fresh.

He turns his office into something like a meditation studio. He lights candles, turns on a salt stone, sometimes sprays scents into the air. He has an entire cabinet full of candles. He always makes sure the glass cases for two candles are touching -- one of his two superstitions, the other being chewing Juicy Fruit during games. Last year, breaking down tape by candlelight was what he missed most. "Perfect lighting," he says. "Relaxing."
 

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"I think about it every year" is Payton's response to a question of whether he thinks about the Hall of Fame. After producing a Super Bowl and a yearly offensive juggernaut in New Orleans, winning a title in Denver might put him over the top. Stephen Speranza for ESPN
He's not mad scientist drawing up plays in those hours. He's doing something much harder: creating mechanisms for his quarterback to decode the opposing defense before the snap. Last year only two teams committed more pre-snap penalties than the Broncos. Payton knows that this year, if the play clock is under 10 seconds and Wilson is futzing at the line, the defense will probably win.

One day in his office, Payton stands up and draws a formation on a giant whiteboard. It isn't one of his plays; it's from Mike Shanahan, a 1998 game between the Broncos and Cowboys. Shanahan split Shannon Sharpe out wide, beyond the receivers. It forced the defense to declare its coverage. If a cornerback lined up on Sharpe, it was zone. If a safety or linebacker did, it was man coverage. It was simple yet devastating, revolutionizing football and prompting coaches like Belichick to counter by making corners and safeties interchangeable.

"Mike split the atom," Payton says.

That's his challenge with Wilson, whom he likes as a person and as a player. He believes Wilson, 15 pounds lighter than last season, had a good camp. Payton doesn't run a slant any differently than Nathaniel Hackett, whose tenure as Broncos head coach in 2022 lasted 15 games. He just needs to run it at the right time. Wilson looked more than lost last season. His poor play took on new dimensions, an arguable Hall of Famer so universally mocked that it has continued into this year: The Cardinals' official social media account trolled Wilson after a preseason game. Early in training camp, Payton disclosed his assessment of Hackett's disastrous season to USA Today, that it "might have been one of the worst coaching jobs" in league history. Those words prompted multiple responses from the Jets, where Hackett is now the offensive coordinator, and has turned the October game between them into a game fans and pundits will circle on the calendar. A few weeks later, after Payton said he didn't want Broncos players wearing sunglasses or bucket hats and doing in-game interviews during preseason games, Jets receiver Garrett Wilson did an in-game interview in sunglasses and a bucket hat.

"That was good," Payton says now, laughing.

Payton's comments earned him a little plastic trophy of a golden microphone, awarded to Broncos staffers who step in it publicly. Some people, many of whom know Payton well, argue that he is so calculated that his words about Hackett were part of a grand strategy, designed to take pressure off the team and put it on himself. He got texts from coaches across sports who considered it a masterstroke. But Payton simply has less of a filter these days, even if it later requires damage control. "I think that happens to all of us," Loomis says. "As you get older, you say the things that you think without caring about the consequences."


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Payton has been in professional football long enough to know there are no codes. At the Super Bowl in Miami in 2010, Payton invited Parcells, who was then running football operations for the Dolphins, to watch practice and speak to the team. The Saints had been developing an undrafted practice squad left tackle named Jermey Parnell. Payton loved him, a hidden gem. Six months later, the Dolphins plucked Parnell. Payton was livid. How was Parnell on anyone's radar? Payton went to a conspiratorial place, convinced that someone inside the Saints had spread word about Parnell. Then Payton called Parcells, who fessed up that he had spotted him at the practice -- and was proud of it.
"Don't ever let the wolf in the henhouse," Parcells told him.

ON A MID-DECEMBER morning last year, Sean was in the kitchen when he heard Skylene scream.
He ran over. She was in the bathroom, on the phone.
"What's wrong?" he said.
"My dad died," she said.
Skylar Montgomery's death was unexpected, a day after his birthday. He was only a few years older than Sean. Skylar would visit Gozzer and bet with Gretzky. Sean immediately went into planning mode, booking flights, renting cars, figuring out help for their dogs. When Skylene was too distraught to decide details of the memorial, Payton handled them. He reassured her mom that she wouldn't have to go back to work. He edited videos and found music for the ceremony. "He took control," Skylene says.
They spent nine days in West Virginia, and it was Payton's best version of himself, deploying his expert executive functions, organizational acumen, love and grace -- but both of them knew something that went unspoken but was as palpable as the sadness in the air: All of it was conditional. It was only possible because he was out of the game. If he'd been coaching, he knows he would have been mired in work while Skylene planned the service alone. He would have used the owner's plane to zip to the service and back in a matter of hours. He would have gotten a game ball after a win. The storyline would have been about how he had coached through a heavy heart.
"I wouldn't have been involved," he says. "And I was involved."
On the flight home, Skylene turned to him and said something that Payton had heard often but that sounded different this time.
"Thank you for being there."
Two months later, he accepted the Broncos job.

AS WE ZIP around the course, I ask Payton whether he thinks about the Hall of Fame.
"Yes. I think about it every year."
He has always held the game in a certain reverence, saving notes and voicemails he has received over the years from great coaches. But he thought about Canton more this past year. As a media member, he voted for the All-Pro team, and he labored over choices, watching film and weighing various factors. Hall of Fame voters have occasionally polled him over the years, asking his opinion about candidates. He wondered how voters would view him if he had walked away for good. Orchestrating record-setting offenses and winning a Super Bowl at a franchise previously famous for fans wearing paper bags over their heads seems sufficient. But Mike Shanahan and Mike Holmgren were successful, too, and both are still waiting.
 

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After a Hall of Fame-worthy career in Seattle, things fell apart for Broncos QB Russell Wilson last season. One of Payton's most important jobs is to urge Wilson to focus less on his brand and more on football. Stephen Speranza for ESPN

Payton has been in professional football long enough to know there are no codes. At the Super Bowl in Miami in 2010, Payton invited Parcells, who was then running football operations for the Dolphins, to watch practice and speak to the team. The Saints had been developing an undrafted practice squad left tackle named Jermey Parnell. Payton loved him, a hidden gem. Six months later, the Dolphins plucked Parnell. Payton was livid. How was Parnell on anyone's radar? Payton went to a conspiratorial place, convinced that someone inside the Saints had spread word about Parnell. Then Payton called Parcells, who fessed up that he had spotted him at the practice -- and was proud of it.
"Don't ever let the wolf in the henhouse," Parcells told him.

ON A MID-DECEMBER morning last year, Sean was in the kitchen when he heard Skylene scream.
He ran over. She was in the bathroom, on the phone.
"What's wrong?" he said.
"My dad died," she said.
Skylar Montgomery's death was unexpected, a day after his birthday. He was only a few years older than Sean. Skylar would visit Gozzer and bet with Gretzky. Sean immediately went into planning mode, booking flights, renting cars, figuring out help for their dogs. When Skylene was too distraught to decide details of the memorial, Payton handled them. He reassured her mom that she wouldn't have to go back to work. He edited videos and found music for the ceremony. "He took control," Skylene says.
They spent nine days in West Virginia, and it was Payton's best version of himself, deploying his expert executive functions, organizational acumen, love and grace -- but both of them knew something that went unspoken but was as palpable as the sadness in the air: All of it was conditional. It was only possible because he was out of the game. If he'd been coaching, he knows he would have been mired in work while Skylene planned the service alone. He would have used the owner's plane to zip to the service and back in a matter of hours. He would have gotten a game ball after a win. The storyline would have been about how he had coached through a heavy heart.
"I wouldn't have been involved," he says. "And I was involved."
On the flight home, Skylene turned to him and said something that Payton had heard often but that sounded different this time.
"Thank you for being there."
Two months later, he accepted the Broncos job.

AS WE ZIP around the course, I ask Payton whether he thinks about the Hall of Fame.
"Yes. I think about it every year."
He has always held the game in a certain reverence, saving notes and voicemails he has received over the years from great coaches. But he thought about Canton more this past year. As a media member, he voted for the All-Pro team, and he labored over choices, watching film and weighing various factors. Hall of Fame voters have occasionally polled him over the years, asking his opinion about candidates. He wondered how voters would view him if he had walked away for good. Orchestrating record-setting offenses and winning a Super Bowl at a franchise previously famous for fans wearing paper bags over their heads seems sufficient. But Mike Shanahan and Mike Holmgren were successful, too, and both are still waiting.

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Payton's frustration with NFL referees (and the league office) is well documented, but he doesn't feel as if he's defined by it. "I don't think it's gonna rob my legacy," he says. Stephen Speranza for ESPN
Payton is proud of what he and Brees did together and the way they were connected. They had a secret way of thanking one another after a touchdown: Payton would shake Brees' hand if he was more responsible, Brees would shake Payton's hand if the coach was. He's also proud of how their run ended, with tears and hugs rather than acrimony. Payton helped resurrect Jameis Winston's career, and went 5-0 with Teddy Bridgewater and 7-2 with Taysom Hill. But as it stands, Payton is in a cadre of consistent winners who are stuck at one ring. All won't get in -- and nobody else served a year suspension.

"I think Sean's a Hall of Fame coach," Loomis says. "It's unquestioned if we have two Super Bowls. It'll be forgotten that we had one taken from us."

Payton hasn't forgotten, of course. That leads down a familiar path, of what could have been. I ask him what it's like to live and coach with the consequences that have come down from the league office over the years.

"I don't think it's gonna rob my legacy," he says.

He says he doesn't consider himself a victim, despite it all. He knows the Saints deserved a penalty for Bountygate -- "I was prepared for it" -- even if he disagrees with its severity and how it was publicly framed. He knows the Saints had chances to win the NFC Championship Game after the Nola No-Call. "There were a lot of plays in that game," he says. But of course, I'm not asking the question to hear his answer. I'm asking to see whether he can live up to his answer, which both of us know will not be determined by wins and losses, or whether he spots all kinds of problems with a fake field goal by candlelight, or whether Wilson makes the Pro Bowl. It'll be determined by whether he can resist urges to fight wars, obvious and unseen, by whether he will let himself be changed in some fundamental way by that season he spent with Connor or those nine days he spent by Skylene's side in West Virginia, by whether those moments will become part of what fuels him rather than interruptions in the famous Payton overdrive.

Time away has given Payton many things, but one of them is the gift of rekindled belief, he says, even if it's fragile and subject to the dispute with the league. As he drives the golf cart past his Gozzer home, to the side of the 13th hole -- it has a tap open to all golfers with screwdriver slushies, the recipe imported from the New Orleans Country Club -- Payton says he's learning to find joy in life's essentials. Every night he prays for the happiness and health of those he loves. He never prays for himself.
 

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Payton and wife Skylene Montgomery before Loyola University's 2022 commencement ceremony. Payton delivered the commencement address and Montgomery received her Master of Science in Nursing degree. @JeffDuncan_ /Twitter
"I feel like I'm good," he says a little later.

He doesn't mean it in a religious sense. He means it in relation to his scars. He has lived life. He has screwed up and has been screwed. He has won and lost football games. And his kids are happy and healthy. He is going to do everything in his power to be on stage with Goodell, not to slay his enemies but so that this time he can give the speech he delivered to us randoms at the Intercontinental the right way, the way it should be.


ALMOST TWO MONTHS after our round of golf, Payton is sitting in his office in Denver, overlooking practice fields. A joint session with the Rams just ended. He's in a bad mood and trying to compartmentalize, distracting himself with meaningless tasks. The problem with being the lone device for turning a losing team into a winning one is that you have to deliver. The pressure is on, externally and internally. He knows he has rubbed some in the building the wrong way, and he's trying not to care but does, somewhere inside. Sometimes it makes him laugh, sometimes it bothers him, how hard it is to narrow the gap between the truths he knows and how he acts. The other day he got home when the rest of Denver was asleep and turned on the television, needing an hour of a show to turn off his mind.

"You never talk about your day," Skylene said.

"It's just training camp," Payton replied.

Only it's not. The Broncos will open the season with two home games. Payton has spent a lot of time thinking about those games. If they lose them, if they stumble in September, if this thing goes south ... well, he knows his mood might blacken so dark that it's atmospheric. He speaks of when the Broncos will win the Super Bowl, not if. His contract is for five years. But he often thinks back to how essential it was that he started 3-0 in New Orleans, converting the skeptics. If he wants a chance at a jump ball, he has to earn it.

He opens a brand-new glasses case.

"Why do I get excited about a new pair of readers?" he says.

He puts them on. "Are they orange?" he asks his assistant, Paul Kelly.

"Yeah," Kelly says.

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Payton and Wilson watching Game 5 of the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns' NBA Western Conference semifinal game in May. AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Payton scans his desk. One of his to-do items involves a call to the league office. He's feeling feisty and asks that what follows remain off the record. The matter was trivial but revealing. Nothing is too small for Payton when he's in this frame of mind. He feels suspicious about this issue between him and the league, singled out, so he sits at his desk and calls New York. He gets voicemail. He spent less than a minute on it, but it had nothing to do with winning or losing football games.
"How's that square with avoiding land mines?" I ask.
He puts down his phone, tilts his chin and stares out the window. Then he looks back at me, and I wonder whether he's going to throw me out of his office. His face isn't full of irritation but something gentler, the look of someone exposed.
"Well," he says with a smile, "I guess sometimes I look for land mines."

HE TILTS HIS chair back toward the flat-screen on the wall, finding it hard to believe anything but the worst of his team. He knows himself well enough to realize that this emotion will pass, part of a process. He hopes. He turns on film of practice, as people filter in and out of his office. Broncos GM George Paton, to chat about roster stuff. Various assistant coaches, clarifying teaching points. The mayor of Denver, Mike Johnston, wearing a massive Broncos belt buckle and telling stories of how his father woke him up as a kid to tell him about the trade for Elway. The city has hope again. Finally, Payton makes it clear that visiting hours are over. He closes his door, draws the shades. He pulls out a yellow legal pad and kicks his feet up.
"All right," he says. "I'm going to be pissed off watching this."
Two hours pass in which he utters only disparate thoughts, 10, 20 minutes apart ... Hell of a throw by Russ ... Horrible route ... What are we doing ... I hate this. Clicking through plays, rewinding over and over and over. The Rams seemed more invested than the Broncos, in the outcome and in one another. They jump and yell after a big play. The Broncos are flat. He's frustrated about pre-snap penalties and that the receivers aren't blocking downfield on screen passes, killing any chance of a big gain.

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Payton pauses between postgame conversations and scans the field after a Broncos preseason game. Stephen Speranza for ESPN
What troubles him more is something he sees on film but isn't sure how to fix: It's that the Broncos, after a bad play, are discouraged on the snaps that follow. They can't forget. Few of the Broncos players know what it's like to win in the NFL, at least as a member of this club. It doesn't take much to slide -- and to blame others. The other day, he told the players that no referee has ever picked up a flag because someone yelled at them. He was speaking to himself as much as the team, hoping it sinks in for both.

He writes in all capital letters on his pad:

PEN. PRESNAP

4 OFFSIDES DEF

4 FALSE START OFF

1 FALSE START ST

9 TOTAL!!

He walks out of his office, and into a team meeting. The room quiets when he enters. He's at the front, looking out on the players, his tone urgent but diplomatic. He shows some slides, detailing the Broncos' pre-snap penalties last year. "Let's not lose track of the part about knowing how to win first," he says. "We've gotta fix that."

He then shows plays from today's practice, of mental errors and lack of effort, and his calm evaporates. He starts to simmer. "You false-start, I'm pulling you out. Take a lap around the whole f---ing complex. ... It's not just one group. There is an amount of mental discipline in playing this game. I don't want to be first-and-15, honestly. I don't. And I don't want to be second-and-3 and then become second-and-8; we had a helluva run nullified."

He turns on film of successful screen passes from the Saints, the best of his past. The footage is grainy. One of the screens is from the NFC Championship Game in 2009, with the Super Bowl on the line, during the purity of the rise. His mood seems to lift as he talks, his artwork on display. "They're all touchdowns. But they're not accidentally f---ing touchdowns."

Ten minutes later, Payton walks back to his office. He hasn't eaten dinner, and the cafeteria is closed. He has a soda on ice and a clicker in his hand. The league office still hasn't returned his call. He decides to let it go. Tomorrow's practice is better. Two nights later, the Broncos beat the Rams 41-0, a meaningless win that feels vital. Afterward, he gets ready to look at some film. Lights are down and candles are lit. He looks at a framed letter from Parcells on his office desk, written after the Saints' Super Bowl win all those years ago. Four words in all caps in the old coach's hurried handwriting: "SUCCESS IS NEVER FINAL."
 

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RB Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers

San Francisco 49ers got: McCaffrey
Carolina Panthers got: 2023 second-round pick, 2023 third-round pick, 2023 fourth-round pick, 2024 fifth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 20



Original grade for the 49ers: C-
New grade for the 49ers: A-

Let's not bury the lead: I'm taking a huge L here. 49ers fans on Twitter/X have been kind enough to remind me of that fact pretty much every day since the deal came out. And do you know what? They were right.

In 19 games as a 49er, including the postseason, McCaffrey has rushed 298 times for 1,494 yards (5.0 per carry), caught 84 passes for 693 yards and a recorded 21 total touchdowns. His advanced rushing production numbers are solid (0.8 rush yards over expectation per carry, per NFL Next Gen Stats) and he ranks No. 1 among running backs in the Receiver Tracking Metrics overall score -- which measures the ability to get open, make the catch and generate YAC relative to expectations -- indicating his elite level of play as a receiver out of the backfield.

But what really sold me was not McCaffrey's box score numbers, but the effect he had on the entire offense. Prior to acquiring McCaffrey, the 49ers faced man coverage 39% of the time last season, one of the lower rates in the league. After acquiring him, that jumped to 48% -- one of the higher rates.

I believe the change is due to McCaffrey's receiving ability. Since 2018, NFL running backs have recorded a reception on 9% of dropbacks vs. man coverage, but 17% vs. zone. Defenses had to adjust to play more man, otherwise they were putting the ball in the hands of the best receiving back in the NFL.

From 2019 until the McCaffrey trade in 2022, the 49ers offense under Kyle Shanahan was more effective vs. man coverage: 0.16 expected points added per dropback vs. 0.10 against zone.

Once McCaffrey arrived, the offense exploded. What was a 0.00 EPA per play offense became a 0.12 EPA per play offense (postseason included). Now, it's not that straightforward -- a lot of other things changed too.

Trey Lance began that season at quarterback for the 49ers before his injury prompted Jimmy Garoppolo to take over -- before his own injury moved Brock Purdy to the starting role. Even if we look at only the games Garoppolo started and finished pre- and post-McCaffrey, we see a massive difference in the team's performance: 0.02 EPA per play to 0.16 EPA per play, respectively.

Put it all together, and it's safe to say McCaffrey's effect extends beyond his personal box score production.

So why an A-? There are two elements to this grading process: the result thus far and the expectation of what's to come. And while I have little doubt that McCaffrey will remain excellent as long as he's on the field this season, there is that caveat: He's a seventh-year running back who has had injury problems. That heightened injury risk remains. Plus -- and this is not trivial! -- the draft pick cost of this deal was very high, though the 49ers did get 1.5 years of very affordable salary costs and contract control through 2025.

Original grade for the Panthers: A-
New grade for the Panthers: B+

As good as McCaffrey has been, the Panthers were smart to offload him for draft capital when they did. They were out of contention with a veteran running back who was an asset -- they had to cash in. And they got quite a haul for him. There's a reason the original grades were what they were.


Knowing now how McCaffrey has played since that deal, would Carolina like to have recouped a little more? Sure. But if I were the Panthers GM at the deadline last year and was told that the best and only offer I had was the one the 49ers made, I'm still making the trade -- even if I knew how it would turn out. By the time the Panthers are real contenders again, McCaffrey will likely be diminished.
 

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RB Jeff Wilson Jr. to the Dolphins

Miami Dolphins got: Wilson
San Francisco 49ers got: 2023 fifth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Original grade for the Dolphins: B+
New grade for the Dolphins: C

As I mentioned on the Bradley Chubb trade, at the time of the deadline I was high on the Dolphins because their offense had been so successful when Tua Tagovailoa was on the field. The team needed an upgrade at running back though, and Wilson seemed like a logical fit coming from the Shanahan offense in San Francisco.

Ultimately, it didn't really pay off. Though Wilson put up 4.7 yards per carry, that was 0.4 below expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. To give up a fifth-rounder for that kind of production is tough. Wilson is still on the team but opened the season on injured reserve and will surely will be behind rookie De'Von Achane when he returns. It's possible he will be useful for Miami; he was an efficient runner with the 49ers before the trade.

Original grade for the 49ers: B
New grade for the 49ers: A-


After the McCaffrey trade, Wilson became the 49ers' third-string running back (also behind Elijah Mitchell). Anytime a team can cash in a third-string back for a fifth-round selection, that's probably a positive value bet. This was a nice move by the 49ers.



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RB James Robinson to the Jets

New York Jets got: Robinson
Jacksonville Jaguars got: Conditional sixth-round pick (would become a fifth-round pick if Robinson rushes for 260 yards with the Jets)
Trade date: Oct. 24

Original grade for the Jets: C+
New grade for the Jets: D

At the time this trade was made, the Jets were 5-2 but had seen rookie running back Breece Hall tear his ACL. They made a move for Robinson, but it did not pan out. There were plenty of signs forecasting that result. Robinson had suffered an Achilles injury in 2021 and was in his return season. At the time of the trade, he had negative rush yards over expectation.

At the time, I wrote, "I'm just not sure Robinson offers much more than a standard replacement-level running back." And indeed, he did not.

He accrued 85 yards for the Jets, with the silver lining being that they only surrendered a sixth-round pick for the minimal production from Robinson, who is currently a free agent.

Original grade for the Jaguars: B+
New grade for the Jaguars: A-

Anytime you can receive trade compensation for a backup running back with mediocre production coming off a serious injury, you take it. That's what the Jaguars got. Robinson recorded 4.2 yards per carry in 2022 when playing for Jacksonville, which is what they got from his replacement, JaMycal Hasty, after the deal.


This was a pretty easy win at the time, and a very easy win in retrospect.


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RB Nyheim Hines to the Bills, RB Zack Moss to the Colts

Buffalo Bills got: Hines
Indianapolis Colts got: Moss, conditional sixth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Original grade for the Bills: B
New grade for the Bills: C+

Hines delivered a magical moment that will be long-remembered by Bills fans: an opening kickoff return for a touchdown against the Patriots on the first play since Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest on the field the week prior. It was actually the first of two kick return TDs for Hines in that game.

The Bills acquired Hines at the deadline, hoping to pick up a receiving back after striking out on J.D. McKissic the prior offseason. Ultimately, Hines' biggest contributions were on special teams, as he rushed for minus-3 yards and recorded 72 receiving yards in nine games with the Bills, postseason included. Hines suffered a serious injury when he was struck by a jet ski in July and is expected to miss the 2023 season.

The other downside here is that what the Bills gave up turned out to be more valuable than was previously thought.

Original grade for the Colts: B
New grade for the Colts: B+

With Deon Jackson -- a strong receiving back -- already on the roster at the time of the deal and the team benching Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger, it made sense for the Colts to trade Hines. They got a pick and Moss. At the time, I wrote this about the latter: "Moss fell out of favor in Buffalo, but there's no real downside to taking him and seeing how he fares as a backup behind Jonathan Taylor."

There was definitely upside, though.
 

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With Taylor on the physically unable to perform list to start this season, Moss has been the Colts' primary back thus far. And he has taken advantage, rushing for 445 yards on 89 carries (5.0 per carry) and three rushing touchdowns (plus another receiving). The advanced numbers back him up -- he has recorded a massive 114 rush yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats.


Taylor has been inked to a long-term deal, but Moss may have played his way into becoming a trade candidate. The Colts might be able to flip him for a profit after getting some nice production from him.




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WR Calvin Ridley to the Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars got: Ridley
Atlanta Falcons got: 2023 fifth-round pick, 2024 conditional fourth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Original grade for the Jaguars: A
New grade for the Jaguars: A

We have only five games of results here -- Ridley was suspended at the time of the trade -- so the evaluation of this deal remains a lot of projection about what's to come. So far, he has been solid with 333 receiving yards and 2.0 yards per route run, at times looking the WR1 the Jaguars needed (like when he caught seven passes for 122 yards against the Bills) and at other points going quiet or hurting the offense with drops.

I still think this was a great deal for the Jaguars. They were in desperate need of a top-flight receiver and had little hope of taking the next step without one.

While Ridley hasn't been amazing, a lot of the downside risks of this deal have dissipated. He was reinstated from his suspension and is on the field. Remember, in 2020 he battled a foot injury and in 2021, prior to his suspension, he had stepped away from the Falcons to address his mental health. The costs to get to this point were minimal -- a fifth-round pick and a fourth-round pick, along with $11.1 million in salary. The fourth-rounder can become a third-rounder if Ridley reaches incentives this season and a second-rounder if he's signed to an extension, but those are things that happen only if he plays well. That's a good problem to have.

Original grade for the Falcons: B-
New grade for the Falcons: C

Atlanta and Ridley probably were both looking for a fresh start, so it's understandable that this trade happened. The Falcons surprisingly decided to make the move last trade deadline, locking in compensation for a player whose future was unknown.


With the benefit of hindsight, I'm sure they wished they had waited until the 2023 league year to put him on the market. Once he was reinstated, I have to think he would have garnered more of a return.


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WR Chase Claypool to the Bears

Chicago Bears got: Claypool
Pittsburgh Steelers got: 2023 second-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Original grade for the Bears: D+
New grade for the Bears: F

OK, time for my victory lap -- this trade was a mess from the jump. Even in a world where Claypool continued to be the player he was in Pittsburgh (OK but unspectacular), the Bears paid an absurd premium in an early second-round pick that ended up being selection No. 32, the first pick of the second round. There was no reason to do this: They were getting Claypool with 1.5 cheap years left on his contract, but the first half of that was wasted in a rebuilding year.

Chicago would have been much, much better off saving the draft pick and using its resources to acquire more receiving help in the offseason.

Of course, Claypool didn't produce like he did in Pittsburgh. All the Bears got for that borderline first-round pick was 18 receptions for 191 yards and a touchdown. That's it, plus what seemed like conflict with the coaching staff, before they flipped him to Miami last week for virtually nothing.

The entire ordeal was a disaster.

Original grade for the Steelers: A-
New grade for the Steelers: A

The Steelers didn't need to trade Claypool, but they were able to capitalize on Chicago's desperation. Thanks to Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, the Steelers had the receiver depth necessary to make this trade.


It looked like a great move at the time. And when Claypool failed to produce at all in Chicago, it appeared even better.
 
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