Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

Skooby

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18. 2016 Washington (12-2)
CFP result: lost to Alabama, 24-7

The Chris Petersen era peaked in Seattle with a romp through 2016. Washington sent a message by beating a top-20 Stanford squad by 28 points in September, then finished up by felling Colorado by 31 in the Pac-12 championship game. The Huskies' elite defense, fourth in defensive SP+ and led by Budda Baker and Greg Gaines, mostly controlled Alabama in the Peach Bowl too; Washington trailed just 10-7 late in the first half before a Ryan Anderson pick-six changed the game.


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17. 2017 Oklahoma (12-2)
CFP result: lost to Georgia, 54-48

After a bumpy start, Lincoln Riley's first Sooners squad found its top gear midway through the season, winning its final six Big 12 games by an average of 23 points, earning Baker Mayfield the Heisman Trophy and surging to a 31-14 first-half lead over Georgia in the Rose Bowl. The Sooners couldn't hold on, though. Georgia came back twice to force overtime, and OU was done in by a blocked field goal and a Sony Michel TD run.



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16. 2015 Clemson (14-1)
CFP result: beat Oklahoma, 37-17; lost to Alabama, 45-40

Five years ago, Clemson was still an upstart. Star quarterback Deshaun Watson was healthy and dominant, but these Tigers sneaked up on the college football world, outlasting Notre Dame in an October monsoon and blowing most of an 18-point lead and a 19-point lead against North Carolina before surviving both. In the CFP, the Tigers surged past Oklahoma in the second half and led Bama before succumbing late in maybe the greatest single quarter in CFP history.

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15. 2020 Clemson (10-1)
CFP result: ???

The defense has had a bit of a big-play issue at times, and the Tigers lost to Notre Dame in the regular season without Trevor Lawrence. But with Lawrence, they are 9-0 -- against an almost-all-ACC schedule, no less -- with an average scoring margin of 47-13. Travis Etienne is averaging 127 rushing and receiving yards; the defense has some of the best young talent in the country; and the Tigers will be an incredibly tough out in the CFP.

The 10 best teams that didn't make the CFP
1. 2015 Ohio State (12-1). The Buckeyes returned most of the 2014 title team but alternated between domination and hangover. They blew out 10-win Notre Dame and Michigan, but their 17-14 loss to Michigan State was just enough to keep them out.

2. 2019 Alabama (11-2). It took Joe Burrow's brilliance and some disastrous fortune against Auburn (two pick-sixes and some unlikely field goals) to keep Bama out of the CFP for the first time, but the Crimson Tide also won 11 games by an average of 35 points.

3. 2017 Wisconsin (13-1). The Badgers beat every regular-season opponent by more than a TD and had two late chances to beat Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game but couldn't. Stomping Miami in the Orange Bowl was a decent consolation.

4. 2017 Penn State (11-2). After winning the Big Ten in 2016, James Franklin's next team won eight games by 18-plus points but came up four points short of perfection: a one-point loss to Ohio State and a three-pointer to Michigan State.

5. 2015 Stanford (12-2). After starting with a loss to Northwestern, the Cardinal ripped off 12 wins in 13 games, losing only to Oregon (by two points) and walloping USC in the Pac-12 championship game and Iowa in the Rose Bowl.

6-7. 2014 Baylor (11-2) and 2014 TCU (12-1). Maybe the two most controversial snubs of the CFP era weren't quite as dominant as you might remember -- as Baylor lost to seven-win West Virginia and barely beat four-win Texas Tech, while TCU barely beat WVU and three-win Kansas. But the Bears became the Big 12's One True Champion with a 61-58 thriller over TCU, and the Horned Frogs were the hottest non-Buckeyes team in FBS late, winning their last three games by an average of 48-5.

8. 2018 Georgia (11-3). Kirby Smart's Dawgs responded to its narrow national title miss in 2017 by rolling to an 11-1 record and building a 28-14 advantage on Alabama with 18 minutes left in the SEC championship ... then blowing the lead and laying an egg in the Sugar Bowl.

9. 2016 USC (10-3). The Trojans began the season 1-2, replaced Max Browne with Sam Darnold at quarterback, suffered an unlucky loss to Utah ... and then ripped off nine straight wins, six by at least 18 points.

10. 2017 UCF (13-0). Facing one of the weakest schedules in the country got them ignored by the selection committee, but the Knights won their first 10 games by an average of 28 points and, in the Peach Bowl, topped an Auburn team that had beaten both CFP finalists.
 

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No. 14 to No. 1
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14. 2014 Oregon (13-2)
CFP result: beat Florida State, 59-20; lost to Ohio State, 42-20





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Marcus Mariota combined 4,454 passing yards with 770 rushing yards and 57 total touchdowns (and duly won the Heisman), and the Ducks handily ranked first in offensive SP+. They tallied 42-plus points in nine straight games and put up 59 on defending national champion FSU ... but weren't able score over the final 20 minutes of the national title game. An overwhelmed Ducks defense couldn't hold Ohio State back.

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13. 2014 Alabama (12-2)
CFP result: lost to Ohio State, 42-35

The 2014 season saw both the dawn of the CFP era and the beginning of the Great Nick Saban Offensive Evolution. He hired Lane Kiffin to modernize a stale offense, and after an early loss to Ole Miss, the Tide won eight straight to earn the No. 1 seed in the first CFP. They jumped out to a 21-6 lead on Ohio State, but three turnovers and a famous Ezekiel Elliott touchdown run did them in.

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12. 2017 Georgia (13-2)
CFP result: beat Oklahoma, 54-48; lost to Alabama, 26-23

Kirby Smart's second UGA team all but ended a 37-year national title drought. The Dawgs won in South Bend, Indiana, in September, destroyed all comers in the SEC East and avenged their lone loss with a dominant win over Auburn in the SEC championship tilt. They outlasted Oklahoma in the greatest game in CFP history and had Alabama all but beaten in the championship game ... until Tua Tagovailoa entered the game. Title drought: now 40 years.

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11. 2016 Alabama (14-1)
CFP result: beat Washington, 24-7; lost to Clemson, 35-31

Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts took over as Alabama's starter; rebuilding season in Tuscaloosa? Hardly. Hurts won SEC Offensive Player of the Year, and the Tide rolled to the CFP final unbeaten and having won only one game by single digits. They couldn't finish the job, though. With star running back Bo Scarbrough hurt, the Alabama offense couldn't stay on the field, and an exhausted defense gave up three late scores to fall to Clemson.

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10 and 9. 2019 Ohio State (13-1) and 2019 Clemson (14-1)
CFP result: Clemson beat Ohio State, 29-23, then lost to LSU, 42-25

It was overshadowed by LSU's late-season brilliance, but both the Buckeyes and Tigers were unreal for most of 2019. They went a combined 26-0 in the regular season; 22 of the wins were by at least 24 points, and only one was by single digits. And in the Fiesta Bowl semifinals, they played one of the most even and compelling games in recent college football memory.

Ohio State dominated the early proceedings, going up 16-0 but settling for field goals; that offered Clemson a lifeline, and the Tigers charged back. The second half featured three scores and three lead changes, and after controversy and countless plot twists, Nolan Turner's interception of Justin Fields made the difference. If they'd played 100 times, each team would have won 50.


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8. 2020 Alabama (11-0)
CFP result: ???

The Tide have three of the top five in the Heisman voting (Mac Jones, Najee Harris, DeVonta Smith). They've bested an SEC-only schedule by an average of 30.2 points per game. Their defense struggled early but has allowed only 14 points per game since mid-October. They could go down as not only the best Nick Saban team ever but also the best team of the 21st century. They just have to finish the job. Easier said than done (see: Nos. 5 and 11 on this list).

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7. 2015 Alabama (14-1)
CFP result: beat Michigan State, 38-0; beat Clemson, 45-40

The second Saban-Kiffin mashup showed plenty of early flaws. New starting quarterback Jake Coker was shaky early on and briefly got benched, and while the defense was mostly solid, it got torched by Ole Miss in an early loss. But the Tide manhandled No. 2 LSU in early November, and Coker caught fire down the stretch. Thanks in part to a classic surprise onside kick, Bama outlasted Clemson in a title-game thriller.

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6. 2014 Ohio State (14-1)
CFP result: beat Alabama, 42-35; beat Oregon, 42-20

The ultimate "peak when you most need to" team. Ranked 16th in the initial CFP rankings, Ohio State kept getting better and rising down the stretch. Needing a huge statement in the Big Ten championship game, the Buckeyes unleashed the hugest statement, beating Wisconsin 59-0 to eke out the No. 4 seed. They then proceeded to beat Bama with a 28-0 run and take down Oregon with a late 21-0 run. Late-arriving? Nope, just in time.

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5. 2018 Alabama (14-1)
CFP result: beat Oklahoma, 45-34; lost to Clemson, 44-16

A warning for the 2020 Tide: The 2018 Bama squad was just as good on paper but couldn't clear the final hurdle. The Tide destroyed their first 14 opponents by an average of 48-16, and only Georgia in the SEC championship game offered any resistance (though the Dawgs offered quite a bit). The Tide combined Nick Saban's best offense yet with a top-10 defense ... but they laid the ultimate egg in the CFP finale.

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4. 2016 Clemson (14-1)
CFP result: beat Ohio State, 31-0; beat Alabama, 35-31

Clemson nearly lost to Auburn, Troy and Lamar Jackson's Louisville teams early and did lose to Pitt in mid-November. But as has become a Dabo Swinney custom, the Tigers turned into Angry Clemson after their loss, humiliating South Carolina, keeping Virginia Tech mostly at arm's reach and shutting out Ohio State. Trailing Bama by 10 in the final, the Tigers played a nearly perfect fourth quarter, exhausting the Tide defense and scoring the title-winning touchdown with one second remaining.

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3. 2017 Alabama (13-1)
CFP result: beat Clemson, 24-6; beat Georgia, 26-23

Bama went scorched-earth during an 11-0 start, but the offense grew rickety late. The Tide barely eked out a CFP bid after a 26-14 loss to Auburn, and they trailed Georgia 13-0 at halftime in the championship game before freshman Tua Tagovailoa tagged in, led Bama on a 20-7 run and -- after the Tide nearly won in regulation -- threw a famous second-and-26 strike to DeVonta Smith to win Nick Saban his sixth national title.

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2. 2018 Clemson (15-0)
CFP result: beat Notre Dame, 30-3; beat Alabama, 44-16

Clemson barely survived September unbeaten, needing a two-point conversion stop to escape Texas A&M and a rousing comeback led by backup quarterback Chase Brice to beat Syracuse. But once Trevor Lawrence was healthy and established in the starting lineup, no one had any hope against the Tigers. They beat Florida State by 49, Wake Forest by 60 and Louisville by 61, and they won two CFP games by a combined 74-19. Goodness.


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1. 2019 LSU (15-0)
CFP result: beat Oklahoma, 63-28; beat Clemson, 42-25

Lots of coaches through the years have attempted to modernize their offense in the hopes of giving their program a shot in the arm. LSU's 2019 team set the bar impossibly high for any future modernizers. New passing game coordinator Joe Brady added a few extra tricks for quarterback Joe Burrow and his elite skill corps, and Burrow threw for 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns (!!!). Once LSU's defense got healthy and up to speed late in the year, LSU was untouchable. Ed Orgeron's squad beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, then won its last six games by an average of 30 points.
 

Skooby

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NBA mock draft: Top prospects, breakout candidates for 2022

Although the 2022 NBA draft is at least 18 months away, teams are monitoring next year's class closely. It's important for NBA executives to get a baseline for the strength of the class and how valuable draft picks might be moving forward -- especially as we approach the NBA trade deadline on March 25.

NBA teams currently have no idea when the 2021 NBA draft will be conducted, though it is expected to be held after the NBA Finals, currently scheduled for August 2021. The hope is that a somewhat normal summer of scouting can occur this offseason, which would help make up for the many lost talent-evaluation opportunities of the past nine months.

Meanwhile, it seems clear that a bottleneck is emerging in the college ranks that could impact both the 2021 and 2022 drafts. Because of the uncertain impact of the pandemic on the 2020 draft and the 2020-21 season, many college players elected not to enter the draft last spring, and even more ultimately pulled their name out of the draft.

We've seen that pay off in a major way for players such as Corey Kispert (Gonzaga), James Bouknight (UConn), David Johnson (Louisville) and others, all likely second-rounders originally who are now emerging as potential lottery picks. Upperclassmen such as Luka Garza (Iowa), Ayo Dosunmu (Illinois) and Charles Bassey (Western Kentucky) -- all of whom might have gone undrafted in 2020 -- are making strong cases as first-rounders, as well. As the season moves on, other experienced and highly productive college players are certain to emerge and claim spots in the 2021 draft.

On the flip side, the lack of normal preparation in terms of early practices, exhibitions and low-major nonconference competition that the freshman class usually experiences has taken a toll on performance. Outside of Cade Cunningham (Oklahoma State), Evan Mobley (USC) and Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga), most of the 2020 freshman class is underachieving badly relative to expectations, which will surely mean that some need to return to school. It looks likely at this stage that potential one-and-done freshmen such as Caleb Love (North Carolina), DJ Steward (Duke), Moussa Cisse (Memphis), Joshua Primo (Alabama) and Makur Maker (Howard) might be best suited returning to school and trying their luck as sophomores.

An older, more experienced draft class is good news for college basketball and NBA teams alike, and that's reflected in a major way in this 2022 mock draft, which features a record low number of one-and-done prospects.

Part of that is due to lack of exposure. While evaluators normally would have spent most of the spring and summer crisscrossing the globe to watch FIBA tournaments, USA Basketball camps and AAU and high school events, we've been stuck at home -- just like many of the prospects hoping to be drafted -- as virtually every domestic and international event was canceled.

Recruiting rankings won't be as accurate in this environment, as players simply haven't been seen much in live action -- and certainly not in more organized settings going up against other top-level competition. Things will get sorted out, eventually, once players get to college and the cream rises to the top; but projecting what the draft will look like 18-plus months in advance is not going to be the most fruitful endeavor at this juncture. For now, we're erring on the conservative side, mostly ranking college players and international prospects for whom we've been able to get a solid feel. - Jonathan Givony

Note: While the 2022 NBA draft is too far away to reasonably predict the order, we're using ESPN's Basketball Power Index here to help show picks owed and owned.



2022 NBA mock draft
Pick Player Team HT POS Age
1. NYK
Chet Holmgren Undecided 7-0 PF/C 18.6
2. CHI Paolo Banchero Duke* 6-10 PF/C 18.1
3. CLE Jabari Smith Auburn* 6-10 PF/C 17.6
4. DET Adrian Griffin Jr. Duke* 6-8 SF 17.3
5. OKC Yannick Nzosa Unicaja Malaga 6-11 C 17.1
6. MEM Peyton Watson UCLA* 6-8 SF 18.2
7. ATL Patrick Baldwin Undecided 6-10 SF/PF 18.1
8. CHA Caleb Houstan Michigan* 6-9 SF/PF 17.9
9. SAS Jaden Hardy Undecided 6-4 SG 18.4
10. MIN Ousmane Dieng INSEP 6-9 SF 17.6
11. GSW Terrence Shannon Texas Tech 6-6 SG/SF 20.4
12. SAC Jean Montero Gran Canaria U-18 6-3 PG/SG 17.4
13. ORL Josh Primo Alabama 6-6 SG 18.0
14. WAS Fedor Zugic Buducnost 6-6 SG 17.2
15. POR Kennedy Chandler Tennessee* 6-1 PG 18.2
16. DEN Justin Powell Auburn 6-6 PG/SG 19.6
17. IND Ochai Agbaji Kansas 6-5 SG/SF 20.6
18. UTA DJ Steward Duke 6-2 PG 19.2
19. PHI Josiah James Tennessee 6-6 SG 20.3
20. NOP Christian Braun Kansas 6-6 SG 19.7
21. BOS Joel Ayayi Gonzaga 6-4 PG/SG 20.8
22. BKN Justin Lewis Marquette 6-7 SF/PF 18.7
23. DAL Caleb Love North Carolina 6-4 PG/SG 19.2
24. OKC (via PHX) Moussa Cisse Memphis 6-10 C 18.3
25. TOR Josh Giddey Adelaide 36ers 6-8 SG 18.2
26. OKC (via LAC) Trey Murphy Virginia 6-8 SG/SF 20.5
27. HOU Taevion Kinsey Marshall 6-5 SG 20.8
28. MIA Allen Flanigan Auburn 6-6 SF 19.6
29. CLE (via MIL) D.J. Carton Marquette 6-2 PG 20.3
30. LAL Mojave King Cairns Taipans 6-5 SG 18.5
31. NYK Ibou Dianko Badji Barcelona 2 7-1 C 18.2
32. WAS (via CHI) Abramo Canka Nevezis 6-6 SG 18.7
33. NOP (via CLE) Jalen Wilson Kansas 6-8 SF/PF 20.1
34. SAC (via DET) Kessler Edwards Pepperdine 6-8 SF/PF 20.3
35. OKC Michael Foster Undecided 6-9 PF 17.5
36. MEM Matthew Mayer Baylor 6-9 SF/PF 21.2
37. ATL Dalano Banton Nebraska 6-9 PG 21.1
38. CHA Miles McBride West Virginia 6-2 PG 20.0
39. CLE (via SAS) David Duke Providence 6-5 PG 21.2
40. MIN Justin Champagnie Pittsburgh 6-6 SF 19.5
41. GSW Will Richardson Oregon 6-5 PG 21.3
42. SAC Xavier Pinson Missouri 6-2 PG 20.5
43. ORL Marcus Carr Minnesota 6-2 PG 21.5
44. CLE (via WAS) Tom Digbeu BC Prienai 6-5 SG 19.2
45. POR D.J. Stewart Mississippi St. 6-6 SF 21.4
46. MIN (via DEN) RJ Nembhard TCU 6-5 PG 21.7
47. IND Donta Scott Maryland 6-7 PF 20.0
48. NOP (via UTA) Franz Wagner Michigan 6-9 SF 19.3
49. MIA (via PHI) Carlos Alocen Real Madrid 6-5 PG 19.9
50. NOP Zsombor Maronka Joventut 6-10 SF 18.3
51. BOS Malcolm Cazalon Mega Soccerbet 6-6 SG 19.3
52. BKN Joe Wieskamp Iowa 6-6 SF 21.3
53. DAL Joey Hauser Michigan St 6-9 PF 21.4
54. PHX Nate Laszewski Notre Dame 6-10 PF 21.4
55. GSW (via TOR) Andrew Nembhard Gonzaga 6-4 PG 20.9
56. LAC Malik Hall Michigan St 6-7 SF 20.4
57. CLE (via HOU) Raiquan Gray Florida St 6-8 PF 21.4
58. IND (via MIA) Ismael Kamagate Paris Basket 6-11 C 19.9
59. CHI (via LAL) Courtney Ramey Texas 6-3 PG 21.2
* Committed for next season
 

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Chet Holmgren | 7-0 | PF/C | Uncommitted | Age: 18.6

Mock rank: No. 1

Holmgren is in a class of his own as a distinctively skilled 7-footer who checks every box NBA teams look for in a top pick. The lanky teenager first caught our eye in October 2019 at a USA Basketball camp, and since then, he has morphed into the type of shot-blocking, 3-shooting, ballhandling big man the modern NBA covets.

Holmgren's intrigue starts with his rim protection, where he utilizes his 7-foot-4 wingspan, big hands, stellar instincts, remarkable timing, quick leaping ability and outstanding technique to put a lid on the rim. From a fundamentals, timing and toughness standpoint, the 18-year-old is arguably the best shot-blocker I've ever evaluated at this stage of a prospect's development. His verticality technique is already elite. Maybe most importantly, Holmgren plays with a mean streak you don't always see from players with his wiry, 190-pound frame. He isn't afraid to take a hard foul, and he will challenge anyone at the rim, talking trash in the process.

Holmgren still has questions to answer on the defensive glass and as a post defender given his incredibly light frame. Is he strong enough to play heavy minutes at center in the NBA or is he best suited at the 4? And if he is playing as a 4, is he quick enough to chase around a lot of the combo forwards who close games in the NBA? More long and fluid than explosive, even if Holmgren is still developing as a perimeter defender and defensive rebounder, the fact that he is tough, long and agile bodes well for him in the long term.


Already a game-changer defensively, some of Holmgren's offensive highlights are jaw-dropping. He is more than comfortable taking a defensive rebound coast-to-coast in transition, weaving through traffic with incredible grace for his size. He is even capable of knocking down hesitation 3s in the half court like a lot of the NBA's best wings. I initially viewed Holmgren as a Kristaps Porzingis type of big, but that would be underselling his ballhandling and toughness. You could argue that he is further along than a prospect like Evan Mobley was at Holmgren's age, and Mobley is getting strong consideration as the top pick in what's considered a loaded 2021 draft.

Along with his rim protection, Holmgren's floor spacing is his most NBA-ready skill. He shoots an effortlessly easy ball from 3 with great touch and rotation, and he even shows some potential on the move. He should be able to space the floor as a lob-catcher, as well. The Minnesota native can still improve as a facilitator -- he has been more wired to score from what we've seen on film and in person -- but he isn't short on offensive feel, and he should ultimately become an asset as a distributor given his all-around feel for the game.

Simply put, Holmgren has very few holes in his game and still possesses tremendous upside because his body is still at such an early stage of development. The biggest uncertainty for Holmgren, who played on the Under Armour circuit, is where he'll spend next season. Although his father, Dave, played four years at Minnesota in the 1980s, Holmgren remains uncommitted and should be a major priority for the G-League Ignite team. Holmgren also played his high school basketball at Minnehaha Academy in Minnesota with Gonzaga star and potential 2021 No. 1 pick Jalen Suggs. Minnesota and Gonzaga are both in the recruiting mix for Holmgren, but wherever he ends up, scouts will come in droves to watch a player who has become the front-runner to be the top pick in 2022. -- Mike Schmitz

Yannick Nzosa | 7-0 | C | Unicaja Malaga | Age: 17.1


Mock rank: No. 5

The youngest player in the 2022 mock draft, Nzosa has been testing himself against the highest level of competition of any player in the class, carving out a rotation role in the Spanish ACB and EuroCup with Unicaja Malaga.

Starting his very first pro game of the season, the Congolese player became just the third 16-year-old (Luka Doncic, Ricky Rubio) in ACB history to score in double figures back in September, and then Nzosa matched that feat again a week later.

His minutes and role have fluctuated as the season has progressed, but Nzosa has dropped impressive glimpses of talent every time he has stepped onto the floor, rarely looking out of place.

Averaging 2.5 steals and 2.5 blocks per 40 minutes, Nzosa is a game-changer defensively -- even at the highest levels of European basketball -- giving his team a lift with his energy and skills every time he steps on the court. He covers ground exceptionally with outstanding mobility, regularly hedging pick-and-rolls well past the 3-point line and then recovering back to the paint with terrifying closing speed. He gets off the floor quickly and has stellar ability as a rim protector to go along with a huge standing reach.

Offensively, Nzosa does not have a particularly high skill level or the frame to bang consistently with grown men, but he is finding ways to contribute regardless by beating opposing centers down the floor in transition, crashing the offensive glass and finishing pick-and-rolls. He has reliable hands, the ability to finish with soft touch using both hands and good shooting mechanics from the free throw line.

Only weighing about 215 pounds, Nzosa's frame is the biggest thing he'll have to work on long term. His lack of strength is an issue in guarding the post and crashing the defensive glass, as he gets moved around relatively easily. As his career moves on, scouts will want to see Nzosa continue to improve his skill level and potentially show some range on his jump shot. For now, the fact that he is playing and contributing at this level is impressive enough. - Givony

Peyton Watson | 6-8 | SF | UCLA commit | Age: 18.2

Mock rank: No. 6

Still underrated nationally, Watson is a legitimate candidate to hear his name called toward the top of the 2022 draft if he continues on his current trajectory. A late bloomer who didn't start until his junior year of high school at California's Long Beach Poly, Watson stood only 6-foot-5¾ and weighed 170 pounds at USA basketball camp a year and a half ago. Now at least 6-foot-8, the rangy wing should be a pleasant surprise for NBA scouts who likely haven't seen him yet. His late-blooming status along with the realities of the COVID-19 pandemic have limited his national exposure and wiped away his AAU season, and his high school season on hold.

Fortunately, I was able to watch him play 5-on-5 with several 2020 draft prospects a couple of months ago, and he was the best player on the floor despite being just 18. It left me thinking he had all the ingredients of a future top-5 pick. Having already seen him play a do-it-all role as a 6-foot-6 high school junior, I was blown away by Watson's talent and development. Watson is a shifty shot-creator with high shoulders, outstanding footwork, a smooth handle and the type of toughness wiry wings with his frame need to make it at the NBA level.

Thanks to his long strides, 7-foot wingspan, big reach and ability to change speeds and directions, Watson puts pressure on the rim in the open court and doesn't shy away from contact. Watson is comfortable with the ball in his hands, can create space to get to his jumper off the bounce and shows potential as a playmaker, with a solid, all-around feel for the game.

Watson is still on the streaky side as a perimeter shooter and doesn't have a ton of experience having to fit in alongside other elite players given his trajectory. With that said, he is versatile offensively and is a willing defender both on and off the ball, rotating from the weak side for blocks and working to contest on the perimeter. Given his light frame and late rise, Watson might take some time to get comfortable in the Pac-12, but he is the type of shot-creating wing NBA scouts yearn for. So long as he can put together a productive season at UCLA under Mick Cronin in 2021-22, Watson should be viewed as a potential top-10 pick with considerable upside. -- Schmitz
 

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Terrence Shannon | 6-6 | SG/SF | Texas Tech | Age: 20.4


Mock rank: No. 11

Shannon is just entering the meat of Big 12 action and could very well end up being a 2021 NBA draft candidate, depending on how the rest of his season goes. Featuring an ideal physical profile for a wing prospect, Shannon looks the part on first glance, with good size, an excellent frame and impressive physical skills.

Shannon's defensive versatility is his most NBA-ready trait as arguably the best defender for the No. 1-ranked defense in college basketball. He creates plenty of turnovers with his quickness and activity, demonstrating willingness to sacrifice his body while stepping in for charges or pursuing loose balls. His ability to slide up and guard big men has allowed Texas Tech to put more skill around him, which is important considering how much of a struggle it is for the Red Raiders to put the ball in the basket at times.

Offensively, Shannon is a work in progress, as he is neither a consistent shot-creator nor a perimeter shooter, getting most of his offense playing off the ball. He is a career 31% 3-point shooter in college on a small number of attempts, although a recent flurry in Big 12 play (6-of-11 from 3 in his past two games) is something to monitor despite his funky shooting mechanics. He is extremely left-hand dominant as a ball handler and finisher, and he can be a last-resort passer who is prone to driving into brick walls.

Shannon will have plenty of opportunities to show he is worthy of being a first-round pick in 2021 in a loaded Big 12 slate. But if his offense remains inconsistent, another year in college might not be the worst idea to gain polish and experience and potentially make a run at being a top-20 pick -- as we currently project. - Givony

Justin Powell | 6-6 | PG/SG | Auburn | Age: 19.6


Mock rank: No. 16

With five-star recruit Sharife Cooper battling NCAA eligibility issues, Bruce Pearl has been forced to turn toward a much less heralded freshman guard in Powell to spearhead his offense and attempt to keep Auburn respectable.

The results have been about as good as one could expect, with Powell establishing himself as arguably the most impactful freshman in an SEC that enrolled eight five-star recruits.

Powell has excellent size for a guard at 6-foot-6 to go along with a strong frame and good athletic ability. Ambidextrous with his ballhandling and passing, he is exceptionally creative while probing the lane and generating offense for teammates, showing outstanding timing operating out of the pick-and-roll.

He is an excellent perimeter shooter, making 19 of 37 3-point attempts on the season while showing deep range on his pull-up jumper. Quick enough to create offense from a standstill, he has plenty of creativity with the way he finishes inside the arc, showing touch on his floaters extending out to the free throw line.

Defensively is where Powell has the biggest questions to answer long term, as he has really struggled to stay in front of quicker players so far this season and has often looked lost off the ball. That's to be expected, to an extent, considering his lack of experience and the fact he barely played in his final two years of high school due to injury and eligibility issues after transferring schools.

Auburn has played a somewhat soft schedule, which might cause some growing pains entering SEC competition. Powell's combination of size, skill and court savvy is enticing and will surely draw quite a bit of attention if he can continue to display the type of shot-making and playmaking instincts he has in his first eight games. - Givony

Ochai Agbaji | 6-5 | SG | Kansas | Age: 19.2


Mock rank: No. 17

Agbaji has been on NBA radars since the moment Kansas surprisingly elected to lift his redshirt and throw him into its rotation in the middle of Big 12 action back in January 2019.

He has been up and down since but appears to be finding some consistency as a junior, establishing himself as Kansas' second-leading scorer and its most versatile defender, all while hitting 42% of his 3-point attempts.

Agbaji's impressive frame and physical skills were always going to make him an NBA prospect, but it's taken him time to gain consistency with his shooting mechanics and become a more reliable decision-maker. While not much of a ball handler, Agbaji has become increasingly effective pulling up off the dribble when defenses go under on ball screens, and he has shown flashes of being capable of scoring off pindowns, as well.

While it's important for him to make open shots in order to stay on the floor, Agbaji's value in the NBA will always lie on the defensive end; at this stage, he is one of the most impactful defenders in the college game. He chases guards, wings and even some forwards tirelessly around the perimeter with his long arms and powerful build, containing opponents on and off the ball while also offering a steady dose of rim protection.

Agbaji will surely be in the mix to hear his name called in the 2021 draft and might have a tough decision ahead of him. Kansas' status with the NCAA and the ongoing investigation into recruiting violations could play a role in his decision. - Givony

Taevion Kinsey | 6-5 | SG | Marshall | Age: 20.8


Mock rank: No. 27

Somewhat off the radar in Conference USA, Kinsey is quietly putting together an All-America-caliber season, thus far, against admittedly weak competition.

One of the most explosive athletes in the college game, playing for one of the fastest-paced teams in the country, Kinsey has always been good for an impressive highlight, but his skill level is slowly starting to round into form during his junior season.

At his best in the open court, attacking closeouts and finishing lobs, Kinsey is putting up points in bunches this season and doing so very efficiently, at that -- even if he doesn't really have a consistent means of scoring in the half court. He is a reluctant 3-point shooter (career 32%), an average ball handler and an inconsistent decision-maker, but he has made major strides in every facet over the past few years and still has considerable room to grow.

He shows soft touch on his jumper, creating sharp separation from his defender while using his impressive leaping ability, and he has hit a sparkling 69% of his 2-pointers and 82% of his free throws on the season.

Defensively, Kinsey is rangy with his slides and active getting over the top of screens, and he shows his physical skills on occasion by getting in passing lanes and crashing the glass. With that said, his lack of strength and just average feel for the game are things he'll have to work hard to address in the future, as he has a tendency to stand around and lose his focus off the ball.

A fairly young junior, not turning 21 until the end of the season, Kinsey will need to show more consistency against better competition to establish himself as a first-round prospect, but his physicality and productivity have certainly put him on the radar of NBA scouts. - Givony
 

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Kessler Edwards | 6-8 | SF/PF | Pepperdine | Age: 20.3

Mock rank: No. 34

Despite a recent dip in production, Edwards has captured the interest of NBA scouts this season thanks to his 6-foot-8 frame, stellar standstill shooting and age as a junior who doesn't turn 21 until August. Despite a robotic style of play, average feel for the game and somewhat stiff shooting mechanics, Edwards is automatic with his feet set, elevating over the top of closing-out defenders to the tune of 43% from distance and 89% from the free throw line this season. He isn't a fluid ball handler or a savvy passer, and he has benefited from playing the 4 and even some 5 at the West Coast Conference level, but he has still found a way to average 16.9 points in 32 minutes, including strong showings against San Diego State and UCLA.


Defensively, he has solid timing for blocks and uses his positional length to contest on the perimeter. Yet, he is very upright and a little stiff in the hips, so he doesn't quite project as a defensive stopper. Edwards also is still improving in the toughness department on the defensive glass. But the California native has taken a step each and every season at Pepperdine and looks like a real candidate to hear his name called during the 2022 draft as a 3-and-D combo forward. Strong in-conference showings against powerhouse Gonzaga could expedite that process. -- Schmitz

Dalano Banton | 6-8 | playmaker | Nebraska | Age: 21.1


Mock rank: No. 37

One of the most unique players in college basketball, Banton has piqued the interest of NBA scouts, averaging 14.4 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.6 assists in 31 minutes playing exclusively point guard at 6-foot-8. Banton was unable to separate himself as a freshman at Western Kentucky and sat out last season after transferring to the Cornhuskers, but the 21-year-old Toronto native has resurfaced in a big way. He has shined with his ballhandling, court vision and defensive instincts under Fred Hoiberg.

Although Nebraska is 3-5 and his numbers are partially a product of his role, Banton is one of only three players since 2007 to average at least 18 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals and 1 block per 40 minutes, joining Ben Simmons (LSU) and John Konchar (Purdue Fort Wayne).

With high shoulders, a 6-foot-9 wingspan, an 8-foot-8 standing reach and a lean frame, Banton glides with the ball in his hands, picking apart defenses with his court vision. With that said, Banton isn't overly explosive or physical and faces questions about his finishing and half-court shot-creation at the next level, evident by his 49.1% shooting rate on 2-pointers, relying a lot on touch shots in the paint. Banton's long-term upside will be dictated by the type of shooter he can become.

As the NBA is loaded with elite ball handlers, Banton's best chance at sticking is by becoming a reliable spot-up shooter, allowing him to function as more of a playmaking wing and secondary ball handler. A career 25% 3-point shooter, Banton shoots a set shot from distance and isn't much of a pull-up threat, yet his 74% mark on free throws this season suggests he could become an average standstill shooter in time.

Banton also will have to improve his body to survive defensively against elite wings at the next level. However, he is able to have an impact on that end thanks to his reach, instincts and anticipation, regularly making plays off the ball and on the glass. If Banton can find a way to stabilize his shooting stroke, turn Nebraska into a winner and prove he can be just as effective off the ball as on it, he could emerge as a 2022 sleeper and potential first-round pick given his unique combination of size and skill. -- Schmitz

RJ Nembhard | 6-5 | PG/SG | TCU | Age: 21.7

Mock rank: No. 46

Nembhard has been one of the Big 12's breakout players, thus far, leading a 7-2 TCU team in points (18.4) and assists (4.9) as a redshirt junior. Although currently in COVID-19 protocol, Nembhard already has a handful of banner performances under his belt, headlined by a 21-point, 4-rebound, 4-assist game in a win over Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State, knocking down the game-winning jumper in the process.

Standing 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, Nembhard was more of a utility guard when he joined the Horned Frogs. But after playing more on ball last year, the 21-year-old has evolved into a legitimate combo guard who has shined playing heavy minutes on the ball for Jamie Dixon.

Groomed as a point guard prior to college, Nembhard looks quite comfortable in the pick-and-roll, hitting the roll man and weakside shooter from different angles, even off of a live dribble at times. He isn't the shiftiest ball handler, and he can be a bit turnover-prone, but Nembhard's evolution from role player to high-volume lead guard has him in the NBA draft conversation.


On top of his improved floor game, it's his shooting progression that has allowed him to make such a big jump, going from 30% from 3 as a freshman to 32% as a sophomore to now 40.5% on 4.6 attempts per game. Nembhard doesn't have the most natural stroke, with a somewhat violent ball dip before he gets into his motion. But he has great shot preparation in spot-up situations and touch on floaters, and he shows the ability to rise up off the dribble for midrange spots and from 3 on occasion. Nembhard also has two-way potential given his tools. He doesn't have the flashiest style of play, but Nembhard's productivity, gradual improvement and winning impact has him on track to potentially hear his name called in 2022 -- or potentially sooner -- if he keeps progressing like he has. -- Schmitz
 

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Joel Embiid and the process of maturation with the Philadelphia 76ers

JOEL EMBIID KNEW how he looked in the oversize, full-body, white, hazmat-style jumpsuit. Of course he knew how it looked for a 7-foot-2 man to wear something like that, and a mask and gloves, onto the airplane from Philadelphia to Orlando, Florida, when the NBA restarted its season in July.

Ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous. But that was kind of the point. He had made no secret of his misgivings about restarting the NBA season amid the COVID-19 pandemic. He'd talked about it on videoconference calls with reporters and in private conversations with Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving. He'd voted against it when the National Basketball Players Association held its call with the Sixers.

"Nobody knows the complications in your body in the future, if you get it," Embiid explained. "Nobody can tell you that."

But when the players ultimately elected to play, in a vote of team representatives, Embiid had a choice to make: Sit out or show up to play.

"If I didn't think we had a chance to win, I wouldn't have gone," Embiid said.

The giant personal protective equipment suit was his form of protest. Of calling attention to himself and the misgivings he and other players still felt.

But there was something else he couldn't say to anyone but his closest friends and advisers back then. Something he hadn't even told the Sixers, yet:

His girlfriend, Anne de Paula, was eight months pregnant with their first child.


"We tried to keep it a secret," Embiid said. "Because people have bad intentions and bad energy. ... So it was very hard for me to go. I just wanted to be there with her and for him. I only went [to Orlando] because I really thought we had a chance to win."

There are people who will read that quote, or see the rather hilarious clip of Embiid walking around in the personal protective equipment, and question his commitment. Embiid knows that. Or rather, he has learned that while riding the ups and downs of the fame cycle these past few years.

But fatherhood has a way of clarifying one's priorities. And as soon as he learned he was about to become a father, Embiid started feeling a new sense of purpose.

"Everything that you always thought about life changes," Embiid said.

He wanted his son, Arthur, to be proud of him one day. Anything that helped him do that is what mattered now.

In 2017, at the height of his popularity, when the NBA world and especially the city of Philadelphia were in the honeymoon stage with the effervescent leader of the Sixers, Embiid mentioned he expected the affection and attention would be short-lived.

"People always want something new," he said then.

It was an astute observation about the modern media cycle, but also of human nature. At the time, Embiid and the Sixers seemed like the NBA's next big thing. He was funny and fresh. His skill set was dazzling. His potential seemed unlimited. And the charming story of the team that took tanking to its ideological extreme seemed to be working as Embiid and teammate Ben Simmons blossomed into superstars.

But that was three years and three playoff disappointments ago. Contemporaries such as Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo have won the championships and MVP awards for which Embiid seemed destined. Last season, Embiid didn't even make the All-NBA team, despite statistics that compared favorably to his previous campaigns. This season, Philadelphia wasn't even picked to play a Christmas Day game.

"It comes down to winning," Embiid said. "If you don't win, you don't get respect. The league doesn't respect us as much anymore because we didn't live up to the hype we were on the way to three years ago."

He is not protesting this. He is processing it.

Sometimes things are that simple. The challenge for a curious soul like Embiid is to keep it that way. To trust in the only voice that never wavered: his own.

WHEN EMBIID WAS a child in Cameroon, his father was everything he wanted to be one day. Great at sports. An accomplished military commander. A loving husband and father who provided a good life for his family. He appreciated that at the time, of course. But when he became a father himself this fall, it took on a new meaning.

"I've always wanted to get to this point when I would find the one to want to have a family with," Embiid said. "Now that I have, I want my kid to see his dad just being at the top of his game.

"I want to have him come to games and be like, 'Wow, Dad is so good,' so he wants to be better than me."

That's how Embiid always saw his father, Thomas, growing up in Cameroon.

"He was in the army, but he also played sports," Embiid explained. "And he was one of the best at his sport, which was handball. I always went and I watched him play. Seeing that, and how people treated my dad, made me want to be better than him. So I want my kids to come see me and set the bar really high."

What Embiid is describing is something rather universal: The desire to be the best version of yourself to set a good example for your children.

Yes, he wants that for himself too. He wants to make good on his enormous potential and what he has promised to Philadelphia fans who stood by him and the team along their long journey through "The Process."

But, said Embiid's longtime trainer and friend, Drew Hanlen, now he wants that for his son too.


Arthur has redefined a purpose for Joel that's bigger than himself.

”- Trainer and friend Drew Hanlen on Joel Embiid's son

"Arthur has redefined a purpose for Joel that's bigger than himself," Hanlen said. "We've been talking a lot about legacy lately.

"Joel's checked off a lot of the individual accolade boxes: All-Star, All-NBA, et cetera. But to be known as one of the greats, you have to be able to help your team win championships. And he hasn't done that yet."

In the past three years, there have been loads of what Hanlen calls "justifiable excuses." Three seasons ago, the Sixers made the playoffs and earned some respect for beating the Miami Heat in the first round, before bowing out against a superior Boston Celtics team. Two seasons ago, they were well on their way to beating the eventual-champion Toronto Raptors in the second round of the playoffs. But Embiid got sick, never regained his strength and was last seen weeping as he walked off the court following Kawhi Leonard's bounce-of-God 3-pointer from the corner in Game 7. Last season, Simmons suffered a knee injury during the seeding games in Orlando, and the Sixers didn't stand much of a chance against Boston in their first-round playoff series.

"But no one really cares about the justifiable excuses," Hanlen said. "All that matters is, 'Did you get the job done, yes or no?'

"The honeymoon stage of The Process is over, and now it's all about getting results. We can't be on our way anymore. We have to arrive."

Not just for Embiid anymore. For Arthur, whom Embiid named after his younger brother who was killed six years ago at age 13 when a runaway truck crashed into his schoolyard.



SURE, IT WAS a silly protective suit Embiid wore on the flight to Orlando. But he was also showing up -- despite all his misgivings -- because he felt the Sixers had the talent and opportunity to win a championship. And he'd shown up in the best shape of his career.

Hanlen flew out from Los Angeles to Philadelphia to train Embiid for that playoff run, forming their own little protective bubble, and they went about as hard as they had ever gone before.

"I think we went 35 out of 37 days before he went to Orlando," Hanlen said. That was in addition to the on-court work Embiid was doing with his longtime skills coach, Sixers assistant Chris Babcock, and the extra conditioning he did playing tennis with his friend Jonathan Sacks.

"I've never seen someone go from zero to 60 like Jo can," Sixers general manager Elton Brand said. "Once he's focused and locked in, he becomes that guy. And coming into the bubble, he was in amazing shape."

There were no mentions of this transformation on social media, however. No videos or photos to show off how much work Embiid had put in to get ready for the season restart or to counter the narrative that he needed to be in better shape.

"I don't post my workouts," Embiid said. "I don't need to show off to people, 'Look at me, I'm working out. Look at this picture, this is me working out every single day.'"


I barely use social media these days.

”- Joel Embiid

Actually, Embiid's social media has been rather tame this year, outside of the occasional tweet about soccer or the launch of his new signature shoe from Under Armour, the Embiid One "Omen," which is an homage to his journey from Cameroon to the NBA.

"I barely use social media these days," he said.

He used to be on Twitter all the time, trash-talking opponents, asking Rihanna out on dates, goofing around with fans or cheekily fawning over former teammate Jimmy Butler's success in Miami. "Tro-elle Embiid," he called himself. And he was the best kind of troll -- a playful one.

But trolling is only endearing when you back it up IRL (in real life), and Embiid had enough self-awareness to realize he and the Sixers hadn't yet.

During Butler's run to the NBA Finals last season, there was no pretense or agenda behind his tweets. Tro-elle was just excited for his friend's success.

"Jimmy and I are still very close," Embiid said. "I've learned a lot from him. The way he carried himself and had everything set up around him. He had his own routine, his own weight room guy, massage therapists, a chef, a nutritionist. I was around him and just watching it, and kind of using it as an example."

As such, Embiid hired renowned nutritionist Louise Burke to help him transform his body so he would have more energy at the end of games and could weather the rigors of the NBA season.

Embiid said he and Butler still watch each other's games all the time and share notes and observations.

"He watches all of our games." Embiid said. "If you asked him, he would tell you he doesn't watch. But there's only a couple guys that he likes to watch, but he will watch our games just to make sure that he follows me and tells me what I need to do. And I do the same for him."

Butler's advice, Embiid said, is very consistent.

"He was always telling me to be more aggressive," Embiid said. "At times, when everything wasn't going right and I wasn't getting the ball, he would call me and be like, 'You are the best player. You need to be aggressive. You guys are not going to win if you are not aggressive.'

"'You need to want the ball, you need to command it, and they need to give it to you. That's just the mentality that you got to have. You've got to lead those guys.'"
 

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A FEW YEARS ago, Embiid was working out with Hanlen and another client, Utah Jazz guard Jordan Clarkson, when he heard a story about former Los Angeles Lakers great Kobe Bryant that stopped him in his tracks.

Embiid idolized Bryant growing up. He started playing basketball after watching the late Lakers star dominate in the 2009 NBA Finals. He loved the way Bryant played, the ferocity and fearlessness he showed, the swagger and confidence he exuded. Any time Embiid met someone who either played with Bryant or knew him well, he peppered them with questions about what Bryant was really like.

Clarkson played two seasons with Bryant in L.A. before being traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2018, and Clarkson revealed something Embiid will never forget.

"You know about the sound he used to make, right?" Embiid asked.

The sound?

"You don't know about the sound?" Embiid repeated, clearly pleased that he had unearthed a detail about Bryant that someone who covered Bryant closely had never heard before.

"Every time he wanted the ball, he didn't have to call for it. He just hissed, like the Mamba. The snake."

Clarkson told Embiid the hiss stopped him in his tracks the first time he heard Bryant do it, but he damn sure passed him the ball and got out of the way afterward. Embiid thought that was the Kobe-est thing he had ever heard, and he has since confirmed it with a handful of Bryant's former teammates.

But Embiid hasn't started hissing for the ball himself, however. He wants to heed Butler's advice to be more aggressive and command the ball from his teammates. He wants to play with Bryant's swagger. But he has to do it in his own way too.

"If I'm not getting the ball, I could easily, because of my role within the team and the offense, I could get the ball and not pass the ball," Embiid said. "But that's when I actually decide to be more passive and just get everybody involved.

"If there's a couple guys on the team that are complaining about not having the ball, my first instinct is to be like, 'OK, I'm going to pass him the ball and make him happy because I know that I'm going to need him. If he's happy, that means he's going to go on the defensive end, he's going to play hard, he's going to get stops. Then whenever I pass the ball, he's going to have enough confidence to make the shot."

The instinct is fine, Embiid thinks. But there is a fine line between getting everyone involved and being passive.

"Sometimes, I back off too much," he said. "I have to change that and be aggressive, command it and lead everybody."

That's the line his new head coach, Doc Rivers, is trying to help him walk.

"Joel comes into the office probably every other day just to sit and talk," Rivers said. "Ben does the same thing. They definitely want to be coached. They want to be led, and they want to know what they need to do to lead."

"That's what this is now: cooperation and figuring out together and then going after it, without coming up with reasons why you didn't do it," he added.

"There's either results or there's reasons."

Rivers has been blunt with both of his young superstars about the urgency they should feel to win this season. The Process is over. They have both been in the league long enough to know what it takes to get to the next level.

Embiid loves searching for inspiration and information from those whose opinion he respects. Besides Butler, Embiid said he talks often with Irving, former Celtics center Kevin McHale, former Philadelphia GM Sam Hinkie and, until he became the Nets' head coach, Steve Nash.

"I like people who think differently than anyone else," Embiid said.

Rivers appreciates Embiid's curiosity and embrace of different perspectives and ideas. Embiid is a seeker. That's his essential nature.

"'But,'" Rivers told Embiid. "'Don't get lost looking for something when the answers are right in front of you.'

"A lot of players keep looking at their team and think, 'What else do we need?' But the answer is you."

"I always look at [LeBron James'] teams," Rivers continued. "Some of the teams LeBron made it to the Finals with ... are you kidding me? But LeBron didn't worry about that. He looks at his team and says, 'We're going to win.'

"And I think that's something that if you want to do it, that's what you have to do."

What does Rivers need from Embiid?

"Dominance," Rivers said. "When you look at his skill and his body, he can dominate every night. He has to be great in the post, like he always has been. And then he has to make room for everybody else to be great, as well."

WHAT RIVERS IS describing is the challenge everyone who has ever tried to help or coach Embiid has wrestled with. His skill set is undeniable. His intelligence is off the charts. Hanlen will send Embiid clips of other post players in the league -- Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic, DeMarcus Cousins or Davis -- and Embiid will learn their moves in a day. His curiosity is endless.

On the one hand, you want to encourage all that. Keep seeking information and inspiration. That's great. That's how you keep your edge and keep improving.

But on the other hand, everything Embiid needs to get to the next level is already within him. He just needs to trust in that, in himself. Not the old narrative about The Process.

Longtime friends -- including Hanlen, Sacks, marketing agent Jessica Holtz and sports scientist David Martin, who was assigned to work with Embiid after his second foot surgery in 2015 -- said he seems more centered now that he has found love and started a family. But also because he has been through so many ups and downs in his still-young NBA career.

"I remember after he got his surgery, I spent a lot of time in the hospital with him," Martin said. "There were people that checked in with him on the phone, but he was pretty much on his own, and I could see it was a real isolating place. He was a complete transplant from Africa, and he was on a new team."

Embiid's support network in America back then was small. Martin, Hinkie, then-coach Brett Brown, his agent Michael Tellem, a few friends and manager Jenny Sacks.

Embiid takes his time sizing people up. Trust is earned slowly but lost quickly. So is respect.

"I feel a little bit like the little mouse that pulled the thorn out of the lion's foot, and then the lion looks after you to thank you," Martin said.

The lion has a whole family to look after now, though.

"Once you get to the league, I think you go through a phase where you don't know who you are," Embiid said. "You have to find yourself, and I think that I've found myself, especially after meeting the one and starting a family."

As for The Process?

The old belief that Embiid and the Sixers were destined for greatness and championships so long as they stayed the course. There are echoes of it, still. But it's mostly just a memory of a different time now.

During a videoconference call with the nutritionist Burke recently, Embiid joked about how much he sweats during workouts.

"His weight changes because of how much he sweats," Burke said. "So I was telling him that, "I don't want you to be on the scales, because that's not important to me. It's about getting the fueling right. You've got to trust ...'

"And as I was trying to find the right word, he just says, in that [French] accent of his, 'The Process. I am The Process.'"
 

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NFL All-Pro Team: Bill Barnwell picks the best players at every position in 2020, including Stefon Diggs, Aaron Rodgers and T.J. Watt

I put together an All-Pro team for the 2020 NFL season. I always get started thinking about this when the NFL releases its Pro Bowl rosters. The Pro Bowl is generally a good measure of player performance over an entire career, but it should be telling that one of their improvements in 2020 is that the voters didn't pick any players who had been benched during the season, as former Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes was for stretches in 2019. Ironically, Rhodes has been much better for the Colts this season and didn't get a Pro Bowl nod.

I prefer working with the idea of an All-Pro roster to focus on the best of the best. And since it's my team, I can be realistic about what the NFL looks like in 2020. I don't include a fullback or a third starting linebacker; instead, I'm including a third wide receiver and cornerback. T.J. Watt and Cameron Jordan play the same role as edge rushers, even if one is a 3-4 outside linebacker and the other is a 4-3 defensive end. I'm lumping them together in one group.

One more thing: In many cases here, there were miniscule differences between two or more players competing for one roster spot. When that happened, I generally -- but not always -- preferred the player who played more games or was on the field more frequently. Availability matters, and the difference between a player suiting up for 12 games and a similarly efficient player making it on the field for all 15 contests is more dramatic than it might seem. I'll try to mention where that matters.

Let's start with two fiercely fought positional races, ones I expect to get more into when I file my end-of-season awards ballot next week:


_end_rule.png


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Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Packers
I've preferred Patrick Mahomes as my top quarterback (and accordingly my MVP pick) for most of the season, but Rodgers moved ahead of Mahomes after Week 16. At this point, Rodgers leads the Chiefs star in just about every significant quarterback rate statistic, as Total QBR, passer rating, yards per attempt, completion percentage, EPA and CPOE all favor the 37-year-old Rodgers.

Mahomes has more passing volume, but it doesn't make up for the difference between the two. More on that next week.

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Running back: Alvin Kamara, Saints
This is another one I'll want to address when I talk about Offensive Player of the Year next week, but expected points added (EPA) tells the story here. This was a close race by EPA through 15 weeks between Kamara, Minnesota's Dalvin Cook and Tennessee's Derrick Henry. Then, Kamara's amazing Week 16 happened:



How Week 16 changed the RB picture
Player Wk1-15 EPA Wk16 EPA Total EPA
Dalvin Cook, MIN 45.8 3 48.8
Derrick Henry, TEN 36.4 0.4 36.8
Alvin Kamara, NO 45.4 17.7 63.1


It's good to score six touchdowns!



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Wide receiver: Stefon Diggs, Bills
There are five excellent candidates for three wideout spots, so I'm going to make two sets of fans very angry. Let's start with the league leader in receiving yards, Diggs, who was expected to be getting into daily fistfights with Josh Allen by this point of the season. Those post-trade expectations could not have turned out to be more wrong. Diggs has had a preternatural link with his new quarterback all season and has pushed the Bills to a new level.

The former Vikings star leads the league in catches and targets, but he's more than strictly volume. NFL Next Gen Stats assigns Diggs 158 targets and an expected catch rate on those passes of 64.5%. His actual catch rate is 75.9%, for a difference of 11.4%; the only other guy ahead of him with 75 targets or more is the Titans' Corey Davis (13.2%) and the player right below him is Justin Jefferson (9.6%), the guy the Vikings drafted to replace Diggs. What a win-win trade.



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Wide receiver: Davante Adams, Packers
Adams is the best wideout in the league on a play-by-play basis this season. He missed two-plus games with a hamstring injury and will still probably lead the league in receiving touchdowns.

Adams has 1,328 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns in 13 games; two scores in the season finale against the Bears would put him third in the single-season record books behind Randy Moss in 2007 and Jerry Rice's 22-in-12 1987 campaign. Adams is averaging 3.17 yards per route run, which laps the field; nobody else in the league is topping 2.8 yards per route this season.

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Wide receiver: DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals
You can make strong cases for Kansas City's Tyreek Hill and Seattle's DK Metcalf, but Hopkins has been the most reliable receiver in the league for a team whose offense has come down to Hopkins and Kyler Murray making magic happen for victories at times. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Hopkins has dropped 0.7% of the passes thrown in his direction this season, a massive feat for a player with the second-largest target volume in football. No wideout has produced more first downs than Hopkins's 73.

Hill and Metcalf have consistently been more spectacular on a week-to-week basis, but Hopkins' Hail Mary catch in mid-November might be what pushes the Cardinals into the playoffs.


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Tight end: Travis Kelce, Chiefs
Kelce might be the easiest selection on this list. He has 1,416 receiving yards; the only other tight end in the NFL who has even half of Kelce's yardage is Darren Waller, who is 337 yards behind him. Kelce leads all receivers -- tight end or otherwise -- with 79 catches for first downs. ESPN has first-down totals going back through 2001, and no tight end over that time has moved the chains as frequently as Kelce has this season.

His 98-yard performance in Week 16 pushed him ahead of George Kittle's 2018 season for the most receiving yards by a tight end in a single season in league history. Even by Kelce's standards, this has been a stunning campaign.

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Offensive tackle: David Bakhtiari, Packers
Bakhtiari and New Orleans' Terron Armstead have both missed about the same amount of time this season, so I'm not sure I can put them both on the team. Between the two, I think Bakhtiari has had the better year. The Packers' left tackle ranks eighth in the league in pass block win rate (PBWR) among tackles to Armstead's 22nd. PBWR loves the Packers on the whole, but Bakhtiari also enjoys a similar lead on Armstead in run block win rate (RBWR).

Stats LLC credits Bakhtiari with one sack allowed to Armstead's 3.5. Armstead had one of the blocks of the season this past week, but he's just behind Bakhtiari and my other choice at tackle.

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Offensive tackle: Tristan Wirfs, Buccaneers
We knew this was supposed to be a 2020 draft with excellent offensive tackles at the top of the class, but Wirfs has been absolutely essential for the Buccaneers. The only rookie on this list, he has played every single snap for the Bucs while allowing just one charted sack, according to Stats LLC.
Tom Brady ranks sixth in Total QBR when he's not pressures and 29th when he's flustered. Wirfs locking down the right side of the line has helped Brady look like his old self in his new digs.

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Guard: Quenton Nelson, Colts
Nelson wasn't as surefire of a pick this season as he was a year ago because of an increase in penalties. The No. 6 overall pick in the 2018 draft has been flagged eight times, including six for holding. On a play-by-play basis, though, no interior lineman in the league is more physically imposing or jumps off the screen the way Nelson does.

Nelson ranks in the top five among guards in both PBWR (fifth) and RBWR (second). He even took some snaps at left tackle while Anthony Castonzo has been unavailable for the Colts.
 

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Guard: Joel Bitonio, Browns
A number of the other candidates at guard haven't been healthy. Perennial pick Zack Martin has missed the better part of seven games for the Cowboys. Tampa Bay's Ali Marpet was out for three weeks. Washington's Brandon Scherff was unavailable for 3½ contests. Wyatt Teller has missed five Browns games and most of a sixth. I lean toward players who are on the field who have played something close to a full season unless they've been spectacular, which is why I'm opting for Teller's teammate in Cleveland.

Bitonio has been a force as a run-blocker and in the Browns' two-headed attack, but the 29-year-old also leads all guards in PBWR, succeeding at a 97% clip. He hasn't allowed a sack all season, and the Nevada product's only penalty is a lone false start. He has also missed just one snap, which helped him come in ahead of Teller and Scherff.

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Center: Rodney Hudson, Raiders
Center can be one of the more difficult positions in the league to judge, but I was shocked that Hudson didn't make it to the Pro Bowl ahead of the Steelers' Maurkice Pouncey or the Colts' Ryan Kelly. The Raiders were focused on having Derek Carr get the ball out quickly in years past, but Carr has held the ball for an average of 2.73 seconds this season, which is the 13th-longest figure in the league. Hudson has helped make that possible.

He has also helped the Raiders get by on the interior without Richie Incognito, who hasn't played since Week 2. Hudson has played every snap and has gone all season without committing a penalty or allowing a sack. He's one of the most underrated players in all of football.


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Edge defender: T.J. Watt, Steelers
Watt is the most productive defensive player in the game. He leads the league in sacks (15), tackles for loss (23), quarterback hits (41), and pass rush win rate (27.6%).

He might not get a chance to build on those totals if the Steelers sit their starters in Week 17, but the question with Watt is less whether he belongs on this list and more whether there is anybody who can compete with him for Defensive Player of the Year.


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Edge defender: Myles Garrett, Browns
Garrett, on the other hand, has everything to play for against a Steelers team that will be starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback. Since returning from his suspension for smacking Rudolph with a helmet, Garrett has forced four fumbles and racked up 12 sacks in 13 games. He leads the league in initial pressures (96) and sacks created by an edge rusher (16.5), a number that includes 10 of his own and 6.5 for his teammates.

A big Week 17 would probably lock him in here ahead of Za'Darius Smith (Packers) and Trey Hendrickson (Saints).



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Defensive tackle: Aaron Donald, Rams
If Kelce isn't the easiest entry onto this list, then Donald is. Despite the fact that the Rams star is double-teamed at the fourth-highest rate in the league, his 24% pass rush win rate ranks sixth in the league. He has created a league-high 18 sacks, including seven for his teammates.

This isn't Donald's most dominant season, but he's still the most devastating interior disruptor in the game.

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Defensive tackle: Grady Jarrett, Falcons
I went back and forth between Jarrett and the Colts' DeForest Buckner for the other tackle spot. Buckner's raw numbers are better, as he has 7.5 sacks and 24 knockdowns, and he has been double-teamed more frequently as a pass-rusher. On the other hand, Jarrett has created 70 initial pressures to Buckner's 43, has generated more hurries than his counterpart and has the league's third-best run stop win rate on the interior.

Jarrett can even pop into the occasional bit of pass coverage. I narrowly went with Jarrett, but either player would be a fine pick.



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Inside linebacker: Roquan Smith, Bears
I already felt like Smith deserved to be a Pro Bowler before Week 16, but his two-interception game against the Jaguars helped push him over excellent 49ers defender Fred Warner for the ILB spot. Smith has stuffed the stat sheet this season; in addition to those two picks, the former first-rounder has a forced fumble, four sacks and six knockdowns. He's tied for the NFL lead with 97 solo tackles and leads all linebackers in tackles for loss with 17 while allowing a passer rating of 58.4 in coverage.

While quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has been credited for raising his game during Chicago's three-game winning streak, it has really been Smith who has hit another level.

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Outside linebacker: Lavonte David, Buccaneers
The perennially underrated David doesn't have the sack totals of teammate Devin White, but his range as a run defender makes him an invaluable member of the league's best run defense. David is always going to rank among the league leaders in tackles, but even beyond that sheer volume, the 30-year-old has added 11 tackles for loss, six passes defensed and a pair of forced fumbles.

Back in 2013, the league didn't honor David with a Pro Bowl nod in the middle of an incredible season. I put him on my All-Pro list and was delighted when the actual voters recognized his talent. Since then, he has inexplicably made it to just one Pro Bowl. Here's hoping to get David the attention he deserves for a second time.



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Cornerback: Xavien Howard, Dolphins
We knew Howard had this sort of disruptive season in him when he picked off seven passes in 12 games in 2018, but the 2016 second-round pick is playing even better this season. Pro Football Reference charted Howard with a passer rating of 61.2 in 2018, but he's down to 43.8 this season. NFL Next Gen Stats notes that quarterbacks targeting Howard as the nearest defender in coverage have generated minus-33.6 EPA, the best mark by far for any defensive back with 200 coverage snaps or more this season. The Broncos' Bryce Callahan (minus-25.6) and Packers' Jaire Alexander (minus-22.6) are the only other corners who have cost opposing offenses 20-plus EPA.

Howard has also stayed healthy after missing significant time in three of his first four seasons. He's the best cornerback in the league right now.





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Cornerback: Jalen Ramsey, Rams
Of course, the guy who used to play in Florida also has a claim on that title. Ramsey doesn't have Howard's ball skills, but he has gotten the best of many of the league's top receivers. Ramsey doesn't always shadow No. 1 wideouts, but here are a few of the players he has shadowed this season and what they've done against him:


WRs' stats when shadowed by Ramsey
WR Rec Tar Yds TD
Amari Cooper, DAL 10 14 81 0
Stefon Diggs, BUF 4 6 49 1
Terry McLaurin, WSH 3 7 26 0
Allen Robinson, CHI 4 4 70 0
DK Metcalf, SEA 2 4 28 0
Mike Evans, TB 5 9 49 1
DeAndre Hopkins, ARI 8 13 52 1
DK Metcalf, SEA 6 8 59 0


Even these numbers overstate what top wideouts have been able to do against Ramsey; the touchdowns scored by Evans and Hopkins both came against Troy Hill in coverage. The Rams might have paid a lot to get Ramsey, but he has been the corner they hoped for in 2020.

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Cornerback: Marlon Humphrey, Ravens
The final spot at corner came down to Humphrey and Green Bay's Jaire Alexander, and it wasn't an easy decision. Alexander has done an excellent job of locking down the right side of the field (the left side of the defense), while Humphrey moves around the field and into the slot to take on opposing receivers. That versatility is an added bit of value, because it's harder for opposing offenses to avoid you.

Humphrey also has a wild number in his corner; he has forced eight fumbles this season, the first time a defensive back has done that since Charles Tillman did it 10 times in 2012. We all know about the Peanut Punch, but if Humphrey can keep this up in the years to come, we might need to start talking about the Humphrey Hit. (The name is a work in progress.)
 

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Safety: Tyrann Mathieu, Chiefs
Mathieu has given up a big play or two this season, but the jack-of-all-trades has been essential for the Kansas City defense. The former LSU star has set a career-high with six interceptions, which ranks third in the league behind Howard and the Patriots' J.C. Jackson. Mathieu has allowed a passer rating of 62.7 as the nearest defender in coverage, which is the best mark in football for a safety and an incredible figure for a guy who moves all around the defensive formation.

If Mathieu plays in Week 17, he'll have made it through 16 games in each of the past four seasons. At a point in his career in which some defensive backs are rapidly declining, he seems to be getting better with age.

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Safety: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Steelers
No, Fitzpatrick doesn't have the gaudy numbers we saw from him after he joined the Steelers in 2019, but he continues to show that his ability to be in the right place at the right time for takeaways is no fluke. Even beyond the traditional numbers, Fitzpatrick's presence in the middle of the field is a difference-maker.

His cover abilities as an ex-cornerback allow the Steelers to feel comfortable using Fitzpatrick to cut routes or to run with deep crossers passing his face. The Steelers were also the stingiest defense in the league this season when teams tried to throw deep to the middle of the field, where their 43.1 QBR allowed was more than 11 points better than any other team.



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Kicker: Jason Sanders, Dolphins
Sanders' 44-yard field goal helped seal a critical comeback victory for the Dolphins against the Raiders in Week 16. Miami had no issue trusting its kicker; he has missed just three of his 71 attempts this season. Sanders ranks third in terms of value generated on scoring plays this year behind Jason Myers (Seahawks) and Graham Gano (Giants), but he makes up the difference by being the kicker on the league's top kickoff unit.

He comes in just ahead of Myers, who has gone 22-of-22 on field goals while missing three extra points.

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Punter: Jake Bailey, Patriots
The second-year punter and his coverage units have been one of the few bright spots for the Patriots this season. Bailey leads the league in net yards per punt (49.1) and is tied with Seattle's Michael dikkson for second in terms of pinning opposing offenses inside the 20 (57.1%).

Tress Way's Washington unit leads the league in value generated by punts, in part because Way's 67 punts are second in the NFL. Nobody has produced more EPA per punt than Bailey this season.
 
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