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Barnwell's predictions for the full NFL playoff bracket: How the Chiefs could lose

NFL playoff bracket predictions: Bill Barnwell picks every winner, including the Super Bowl score

I would love to tell you that there are spoilers below for the 2020 NFL playoffs, but I know that's not true. It's incredibly difficult to predict how 13 NFL games will go. Last season, three of the four teams that were favored to win in the wild-card round lost. The world was waiting for a Ravens-Chiefs battle in the AFC Championship Game, but Baltimore was easily dispatched by Tennessee in the divisional round. If you had a perfect playoff bracket by the time the Chiefs beat the 49ers in Miami, well, you earned it.

This year as my preview for the playoffs, I'm going to lay out the 13-game bracket and predict the winners, all the way to Super Bowl LV. It will almost definitely be wrong and ruined by the time we get through the three opening games on Saturday, which is fine. Hopefully, there's insight in here that will give you stuff to look for in advance of the games, regardless of how the results actually go.

NFC wild-card weekend

(7) Chicago Bears at (2) New Orleans Saints
The four-game stretch from Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky that set the hearts of NFL executives aflutter in December came against the teams ranked 14th (Vikings), 29th (Texans), 31st (Jaguars), and 32nd (Lions) in defensive DVOA. In the game against the Vikings, Trubisky was 15-of-21 passing for 202 yards with a touchdown and a pick. A late Trubisky fumble cost Chicago the game against the Lions. The fourth-year passer started and ended his run with games against the Packers, a team with a competent pass defense that requires the other team to throw to stay in the game. Trubisky averaged 5.6 yards per attempt, threw three interceptions and fumbled three times in those two games.

The Saints rank third in pass defense DVOA and second against the run, so chances are that running back David Montgomery won't be around to bail out Trubisky. The Bears have upped his play-action rate and gotten him on the edge more frequently during this most recent stretch as a starter, but the Saints have one of the postseason's most devastating edge combinations in Cameron Jordan and Trey Hendrickson. If Trubisky beats the Saints in New Orleans with a big game, the Bears might sign him to an extension on the 50-yard line in the Superdome. Prediction: Saints 31, Bears 10.

(6) Los Angeles Rams at (3) Seattle Seahawks
It's unclear whether the Rams will be able to call upon quarterback Jared Goff in this game, a move that would open up a second consecutive start for AAF star John Wolford. The 25-year-old was impressive as a scrambler against Arizona in Week 17, and after an interception on his first pass, he was careful enough with the football to avoid the traps the Cardinals tried to set for him in coverage. He also left multiple touchdowns on the field with underthrows or misses. The Rams expect to get back top receiver Cooper Kupp and star left tackle Andrew Whitworth, but running back Cam Akers wasn't effective last week in his return from a high ankle sprain.

Whether it's a compromised Goff or the inexperienced Wolford, the Seahawks have been dominating overmatched quarterbacks on defense over the past six weeks. They've gone 5-1 over that stretch while holding Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins, Goff and Nick Mullens to a league-best 1.29 points per possession. The Rams are second over that time frame, but as we saw in Week 16, Seattle might not need many points to win this one. Receiver Tyler Lockett had his biggest game in more than two months in Week 17, and with cornerback Jalen Ramsey expected to shadow DK Metcalf, another 90-yard performance could be what gets Seattle through to the next round. Prediction: Seahawks 24, Rams 10.

(5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (4) Washington Football Team
Nobody is likely to pick a 7-9 team to win a playoff game, but that's short-sighted. Remember what happened the last time a team with a losing record made it to the playoffs? The 7-9 Seahawks were 10-point underdogs at home against the 11-5 Saints, who had beat them by 15 points during the regular season. Didn't matter. Seattle held New Orleans to field goals three times in seven red zone trips and hit two long touchdown passes from Matt Hasselbeck before sealing a 41-36 win with the one thing you do remember from that game, the Beastquake. Those Seahawks weren't a great team all season, but they were up to the task for one week.

Compared to that Saints-Seahawks game, it's much easier to construct a scenario in which Jack Del Rio's Washington defense gives the Buccaneers trouble. The book on frustrating quarterback Tom Brady has been clear for more than a decade now: get pressure, preferably without having to blitz. Brady ranks fifth in the league in QBR this season when opposing defenses don't get pressure on him. When they do get pressure? Brady's QBR is tied with Andy Dalton and Nick Mullens at 31st. Over the last six weeks, defensive end Chase Young & Co. are sixth in the league in pressure rate and third-best at creating pressure without blitzing.

Alex Smith's mobility is severely compromised. I'd expect Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to dial up A-gap pressure with his linebackers and defensive backs to try to force Smith out of the pocket while making Washington try to run into his top-ranked rush defense. Unless Washington can create 2-plus turnovers with its defense and special teams, I don't think it can do enough on offense to win. Prediction: Buccaneers 17, Washington 7.

AFC wild-card weekend

(7) Indianapolis Colts at (2) Buffalo Bills
The Colts will try to pull off an upset, presumably, by holding onto the football with their running game and keeping quarterback Josh Allen off the field. Jonathan Taylor is fully entrenched as Indy's primary back and ran for 253 yards last week, but that was against the Jaguars. Owing to a better run defense and their game scripts, the Bills haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 10. Allen deservedly has gotten plenty of attention, but the Buffalo defense has quietly gotten back on track since the team's Week 11 bye; it has improved from 22nd in defensive EPA per play before the bye to the fourth-best mark in football afterward.

Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has a sound, solid defense, but it might not match up well against Allen. The Colts have the fourth-best QBR allowed in the league when they get quarterbacks to throw within 2.5 seconds, but they fall to 29th when the quarterback gets more than 2.5 seconds to pick apart their zones. Allen ranks second in the league this season in completions and first in passing yards after holding the ball for more than 2.5 seconds. I'm just not sure I trust quarterback Philip Rivers' chances of holding up in a shootout if this game turns into one. Prediction: Bills 30, Colts 20.

(6) Cleveland Browns at (3) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns were already the weakest team in the playoff field, finishing the season 18th in DVOA while being outscored by their opponents. Their team has further been torn apart by positive COVID-19 tests, with multiple players and now coach Kevin Stefanski out for Sunday's game. The Steelers come into Sunday's game as well-rested as they've been since the opener.

Cleveland's play-action scheme doesn't match up well against the Steelers, whose QBR against play-action passes is 34 points better than any other team in football. Pittsburgh's biggest win of the season came at home against Cleveland in Week 6, and while the Browns responded with a 24-22 victory last week, that win came against backup quarterback Mason Rudolph and with many of Pittsburgh's stars inactive. The Browns have made huge strides in 2020, but their season ends here. Prediction: Steelers 34, Browns 7.

 

[Skooby]

(5) Baltimore Ravens at (4) Tennessee Titans
If you believe the Titans have Baltimore's number and that quarterback Lamar Jackson isn't capable of winning in the playoffs, well, you're in the minority; the Ravens are 3-point favorites in Vegas despite losing to the Titans in the 2019 playoffs and again in Week 11. Both of those games were in Baltimore, and the Ravens will be making the short trip south to Nashville for their next attempt to forget the Titans.

Once again, the game seems to fall on Jackson's shoulders. There are reasons to think he might be up to the challenge. As good as Josh Allen has been, it's Jackson who has posted the league's best QBR over the last five weeks, with a 93.8 mark coming in just ahead of Allen and third-placed Ryan Tannehill. Jackson ranks sixth in play-action QBR over that time frame, and that's the new weak point for this Titans defense. Without a functional pass rush, Tennessee ranks last in the league in both QBR (93.5) and passer rating (140.8) against play-action passes.

In the divisional round last year, the Ravens dropped eight passes, failed on fourth-and-1 twice and went 1-for-4 in the red zone while the Titans went 3-for-3. This year, they could finally get their revenge. Prediction: Ravens 30, Titans 23.

NFC divisional round

(3) Seattle Seahawks at (2) New Orleans Saints
Seahawks fans might not be too worried about facing the Saints, given that they've beaten Sean Payton's team in both of their playoff matchups since Pete Carroll took over as coach. Those games were in Seattle, though, and this one is on the New Orleans turf. The Superdome isn't a fortress -- the Saints have lost their last two playoff games at home, and that was with a crowd full of fans in attendance -- but the good weather and sound footing make it more likely that these two teams will play a high-scoring game.

If we were confident that we were going to get a matchup of the way these two teams looked in September, the Seahawks would be favored. Over the second half, though, they rank 17th in points per drive, while the Saints rank eighth. Quarterback Russell Wilson has struggled to find his rhythm going downfield, as he has just five completions over that time across 20 attempts traveling 25 yards or more in the air. The combination of Drew Brees and Taysom Hill at quarterback for the Saints has nearly as many (four) completions on fewer than half the attempts (nine). The weak spot at right tackle with Cedric Ogbuehi also looms large for the Seahawks against pass-rusher Cameron Jordan.

Seattle has had stretches this season in which it was great on both offense and defense, but the only game it put both together came against the Jets in Week 14. If the Seahawks can get back their deep passing attack, they have a shot against a Saints team with a bad habit of committing pass interference penalties downfield. If the Wilson from the second half shows up, though, the Saints are too tough to beat without a complete effort. Prediction: Saints 30, Seahawks 20.

(5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (1) Green Bay Packers
Packers fans are feeling good after their second consecutive 13-3 season and a first-round bye, but they'll be hoping for the Rams or Bears to pull an upset. Aaron Rodgers is my pick as MVP after an incredible season, but the only defense that gave him fits all season was these very Buccaneers in Week 6. Rodgers had 15 games with a passer rating of 90 or better and one with a mark of 35.4, when the Buccaneers picked him off twice, sacked him four times and limited him to 160 passing yards on 35 attempts in a 38-10 shellacking.

One game isn't proof that the same thing will happen, but the Bucs are a tough defense for anybody to face. Those Packers also had David Bakhtiari, and while Rodgers looked just fine without his star left tackle against the Bears, Tampa Bay might be a stiffer test of Green Bay's offensive line depth. That game was in Tampa, and this rematch will be at Lambeau, but Tom Brady is no stranger to cold weather games in January. The Bucs also gashed the Packers on the ground last time, with Ronald Jones running 23 times for 113 yards and two touchdowns.

Raheem Mostert's four-touchdown performance in a 37-20 NFC Championship Game victory. It will likely be closer than that game, but the Bucs will pull off the upset here. Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Packers 20.

AFC divisional round

(3) Pittsburgh Steelers at (2) Buffalo Bills
This is a rematch from Week 14, when these defenses were near-perfect for most of the first half before the Bills found a solution just before halftime. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs got going as Josh Allen settled down, the Pittsburgh pass rush got tired and the Bills scored on four of their final five drives before kneeling in field goal range to end the game. The Pittsburgh offense scored a first-half touchdown on a short field, but it had only one drive of more than 40 yards all game. This was Buffalo's best defensive performance of the season by win probability added, ahead of its two games against the Jets.

The Steelers' offense isn't great, but it's not as bad as it looked against the Bills in December, when it went 1-for-10 on third downs. The signs of life it showed in the second half against the Colts, who have a better defense by DVOA than Buffalo, were promising. Getting a week off also probably helped a tired group of Pittsburgh veterans at quarterback and along the offensive line, although that might not matter against a weakened Browns team in the wild-card round.

It wouldn't shock me if we saw the Steelers' defense and Allen combine for something similar to the first matchup, when the Bills scored 19 points on offense (cornerback Taron Johnson had a pick-six to get the Bills to 26). I do think the Steelers will have more success throwing the football than they did the first time around, though, and that could be enough to lead to the upset. Prediction: Steelers 24, Bills 21.

(5) Baltimore Ravens at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
Next on the revenge tour for the Ravens would be beating the Chiefs, who have won all three of the matchups between Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes so far. The 2018 game went down to overtime, but the 2019 and 2020 battles haven't really been close, with the Ravens scoring 15 points in the fourth quarter last season to make things seem tighter.

On paper, Baltimore seems like the exact sort of team you would build if you wanted to beat Kansas City. It is very good at running the football, which attacks the Chiefs' biggest defensive weakness and should help keep Mahomes on the sideline. The Ravens have the speed and depth at cornerback to keep up with the Chiefs' many deep threats and the sort of exotic blitz packages a team might use to try to slow down Mahomes.

In practice, it hasn't worked that way. Jackson has run for 196 yards across the three games, but the Chiefs have cumulatively held the ball for longer than the Ravens. Don Martindale's system just hasn't been able to do anything to stop Mahomes, who has posted a 116.2 passer rating against them. Mahomes has completed more than 70% of his passes against Baltimore and thrown nine touchdowns against just one pick. The Chiefs had five different receivers top 60 yards in their win earlier this season. Martindale has blitzed 40% or more of the time in each of his three matchups against the Chiefs, and it hasn't worked.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (2) New Orleans Saints[/paste:font]
In an all-NFC South championship game, the Saints would be the ones with history on their side. They swept the Bucs this season, including a 38-3 win in Week 9 that was the single most impressive performance I saw from any team all season. It also fits the criteria mentioned above about teams that won by three or more scores and how successful they were in rematches. And while there's a famous adage about how it's tough for teams to beat one opponent three times in the same season, it's not really true. Since 1970, teams that beat one opponent twice in the regular season and got to play that team a third time in the playoffs have gone 14-7.

Drew Brees has the league's second-best QBR against the blitz over the last three seasons. Brees also rarely gives away the football, and while the Buccaneers were 8-2 when they forced at least two takeaways this season, they were only 4-3 otherwise. Too many factors point the Saints' way in what would probably be the last matchup between Brees and Tom Brady. Prediction: Saints 34, Buccaneers 14.

 

[Skooby]

AFC Championship Game

(3) Pittsburgh Steelers at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
It seems like these two teams should have played more regularly in the Patrick Mahomes era, but their only prior matchup came in Week 2 of 2018, when the Chiefs star threw for six touchdowns in a 42-37 shootout. Ben Roethlisberger threw 60 times for 452 yards on the other side of the field that day, but if he tried to do that at the end of a season in 2021, his arm might fall off. If these two teams combine to approach 80 points, you would figure that the Chiefs are going to the Super Bowl. Can the Steelers keep this game from becoming a shootout?

They have a shot. Their pass rush is better now than it was at the start of 2018. The Chiefs aren't expected to get back star right tackle Mitchell Schwartz for the postseason, which means they would have Mike Remmers going up against likely Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt. We also saw the Falcons slow down the Chiefs in Week 16 with a scheme full of zone blitzes and sim pressures, crowding the line of scrimmage and then rushing four while dropping linemen and linebackers into coverage. The Steelers aren't coordinated by zone blitz forefather dikk LeBeau anymore, but some of those pressures are still lurking in their playbook. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar approach from Pittsburgh if it plays Kansas City again.

Rob Gronkowski, which led the Steelers to draft Ryan Shazier. With Shazier's career sadly coming to an end in 2017, Travis Kelce hit the Steelers for 109 yards and two touchdowns in 2018. The Steelers drafted Devin Bush to take away tight ends, but he is out for the year with a torn ACL. I'm not sure Pittsburgh has anyone who can cover Kelce, and that's the difference in this game. Prediction: Chiefs 30, Steelers 24.

Super Bowl LV

New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Drew Brees vs. Patrick Mahomes. Michael Thomas vs. Travis Kelce. Marshon Lattimore vs. Tyrann Mathieu. Sean Payton vs. Andy Reid. This would be a pretty fun matchup, huh? These teams just met in Week 15, with the Chiefs pulling out a 32-29 victory. It was Brees' return from missing several games with broken ribs, and he completed just 44.1% of his pass attempts. It might actually be seen as a positive for the Saints that they were able to score 27 points on offense with Brees still getting back into game shape. He completed nearly 71% of his passes over the final two weeks of the season, so there's no reason to think he would struggle quite as much in a Super Bowl rematch.

The Saints' game plan on defense was simple: take away the big plays. They won that battle but lost the war. The Chiefs' biggest play of the day was a 24-yard Mahomes scramble, but Kansas City was able to get five yards at will. Mahomes was just 26-of-47 for 254 yards, but the Chiefs' lead backs ran the ball 29 times for 141 yards. The offense converted half of its third downs and held the ball for a whopping 41 minutes.

Where the Chiefs won the game -- and where this game would end up being decided -- is in the red zone. Both of these defenses have been terrible there this season, with the Saints ranking 29th in touchdown rate inside the 20 and the Chiefs last. Kansas City scored touchdowns on its first four red zone trips and a field goal on their fifth. New Orleans made it to the red zone only three times, but scored touchdowns in each of its trips.

Red zone performance is relatively random from year to year, and regular-season performance might not mean much in the red zone come January. One notable example here is the 2019 Chiefs, who ranked 20th in red zone touchdown rate in the regular season. They then fueled three straight comeback victories in the playoffs by dominating in the red zone, scoring 12 touchdowns in 14 trips. They were a great offense, so it shouldn't have been a surprise that they would improve inside the red zone during the postseason.

Of those two defenses in 2020, if you had to pick one to get better in the red zone in the weeks to come, the Saints would be the obvious choice. They rank second in overall defensive DVOA, while the Chiefs rank 22nd. The Chiefs are always going to get theirs on offense, but if the Saints can turn a Chiefs red zone trip or two into field goals instead of touchdowns, the formula they used to try to beat Kansas City in December might actually work in February. I think the Saints are the most complete team in the league, which is why they're my pick to win Super Bowl LV. Prediction: Saints 24, Chiefs 20.

 

[Jplaya2023]

The ultimate guide to Alabama-Ohio State

 

[Skooby]

The ultimate guide to Alabama-Ohio State

The ultimate guide to Alabama-Ohio State

Even in an era deprived of any semblance of parity -- and college football has had many of those -- an Alabama-Ohio State game feels huge.

While Bama and Clemson have played four times in the past six years, and Ohio State and Clemson have played in three of the past five, Bama and Ohio State have only ever met four times. Three of their battles were top-10 vs. top-10 matchups, and the other was No. 6 vs. No. 13.

In 2014, they played in the inaugural College Football Playoff semifinals; six years later, they play with a national title on the line (8 p.m. ET, Monday on ESPN/ESPN App). Here's everything you need to know about this titanic, and rare, matchup.

A nearly perfect offense
In 2020, Alabama offensive players have won college football awards for most outstanding overall player (DeVonta Smith), quarterback (Mac Jones), running back (Najee Harris), receiver (Smith again), lineman (Alex Leatherwood), center (Landon dikkerson, who will not play Monday) and overall offensive line. The same program that produced the three best defenses of the 21st century has now produced one of its best offenses.

After Lane Kiffin, Brian Daboll and Mike Locksley slowly laid and developed the foundation for the modern Alabama offense, Steve Sarkisian perfected it. The Crimson Tide deploy their personnel with perfect spacing, run-pass balance and, yes, blue-chip talent. But they also brilliantly deploy all the proper bells and whistles common in today's college football:

• When the Crimson Tide throw from what Sports Info Solutions deems to be an RPO, they enjoy a 63% success rate (19th in FBS) and gain 9.9 yards per play (fourth).
  
  
• When they throw from motion at the snap: 68% success rate (fifth) and 9.1 yards per play (17th).
  
  
• When they use good, old-fashioned play action: 59% success rate (ninth) and 10.4 yards per play (sixth).
  

Their scripts are usually all but perfect -- over their first 20 snaps of a game, they have a 60% success rate (second) at 9.2 yards per play (first) -- and they build off one big play with another: Coming off of a gain of 20-plus yards, they enjoy a 63% success rate (second) at 8.0 yards per play (eighth). They destroy man defenses (12.1 yards per pass) and zone defenses (10.7) alike.

There is no weakness. It is a perfect if/then attack.

• If the opposing offense is hot, the Tide can lean on Harris and their awards-heavy line to suck the oxygen out of the game -- Harris had 31 rushes and five receptions for 245 combined yards against Florida.
  
  
• If you're trying too hard to keep defenders close to the box (and Harris), then Smith will dice you up on the perimeter (13 catches for 164 yards against Ole Miss, 11 for 203 against Mississippi State, 15 for 184 against Florida). He is probably one of the three best receivers in the country in both the horizontal game and the vertical game.
  
  
• If you manage to succeed in keeping Smith somewhat in check, then that probably means you don't have a chance against John Metchie III (seven for 151 against Tennessee). As the season has progressed, they've gotten tight ends Miller Forristall and Jahleel Billingsley more involved, too (combined: 39 catches, 513 yards, four TDs).
  

Plus -- and Alabama is the last team in the world that needs a "plus" -- Jaylen Waddle, the Tide's best receiver over the first four games of the year, has been practicing again and might be available after missing eight games with a fractured ankle. Bama doesn't need to deploy him as a decoy; they had the best offense in the country even without him. But anything he contributes would be an unnecessary bonus. Waddle is also one of the game's most terrifying return men.

Alabama has scored on less than 50% of its possessions just once all year -- the Tide went 6-for-13 against Mississippi State, though they were 5-for-7 while taking a 27-0 halftime lead -- and against the three best defenses they've played, they rolled. Georgia ranks first in defensive SP+, Texas A&M 14th and Notre Dame 20th. In 33 drives against these units, Bama scored 19 times and averaged 41 points per game.

How in the world do you stop that? In short, you don't. You have to simply pick your spots when they come and hope for the best.

ESPN
A tentative slowing Bama down blueprint:
1. Rein in big plays

Ohio State ranks seventh in defensive SP+, second best among Bama opponents this season. The Buckeyes have obvious skill and future draft picks wherever you look, but under new defensive coordinator Kerry Coombs, they've been more reactive than aggressive -- a high-end bend-don't-break, if you will.

With Coombs, their use of a more aggressive, man-based Cover 1 defense (which deploys one deep safety) has fallen from 44% last season to 21%, while their use of a more conservative Cover 3 (also with one deep safety, but with two cornerbacks generally also dropping deeper) has gone from 36% to 55%. This trades softer coverage and worse potential efficiency numbers for big-play prevention and, since there's another safety closer to the line of scrimmage and you can potentially get away with keeping a third linebacker on the field instead of a nickelback, better run support.

That trade has mostly worked out for Ohio State. Opponents have a 51% success rate (103rd in FBS) and 67% completion rate (110th) passing against Ohio State's zone defense, but aside from a few explosions against Indiana, the Cover 3 has succeeded in its primary goal of limiting big plays. This could be key.

Any blueprint for keeping Alabama within reach starts with making the Tide work methodically down the field. It's not that they can't do that, but it will offer Ohio State more situational opportunities -- namely, third downs and red zone snaps -- to get off the field touchdown-free.

Clemson's Trevor Lawrence mostly picked apart Ohio State's Cover 3: In 23 pass attempts against it, the Tigers generated 212 yards and a 70% success rate. Aside from a second-quarter slump, they drove pretty steadily down the field all game -- seven of 12 drives ended in Buckeyes territory. But after their first drive of the game, they managed only four gains of 20-plus yards. Ohio State's defensive front won its battle with Clemson's line, limiting Travis Etienne to 32 yards on 10 carries. Coombs also got more creative and diverse in his coverage packages as Clemson got closer to the Buckeyes' end zone. One Tigers scoring threat ended after a sack-and-strip fumble recovery, one on a turnover on downs and one on a red zone interception.

If Waddle is anywhere close to 100%, it's uncertain if any defense can prevent big plays from Bama. This is not the best use of a time machine, but if you went back to mid-October and told Bama fans a receiver of theirs had won the Heisman Trophy, a large majority of them would have assumed it was Waddle. In four games, he caught an obscene 25 of 29 passes for 557 yards (with at least 120 in each game) and four touchdowns. He was on a path for possibly the greatest season we've ever seen from a college receiver. It's doubtful we get that version of Waddle after two months away, but it's technically possible.

2. Fight to a draw in the trenches

The biggest difference in quality for Ohio State against Clemson came up front. Ohio State won a majority of the line battles on both sides of the ball, and the Buckeyes' superiority was especially noticeable on defense, where they not only hemmed in the Clemson run game, but generated an increasing amount of pressure with their defensive ends.

Aside from perhaps being able to play killer man coverage, the biggest defensive cheat code in the sport is being able to generate pressure while rushing just four defenders. That's doubly true against Alabama -- the Crimson Tide average 10.4 yards per play against blitzes, most in the country -- but Ohio State can do it as well as anyone.

Seven FBS linemen generated at least a 16% pressure rate from 100-plus pass rush attempts this season. The Buckeyes have three of them.

Best pressure rate among defensive linemen (100+ pass rush attempts):
1. Kwity Paye, Michigan (21.1%)
2. Tyreke Smith, Ohio State (19.3%)
3. Chris Rumph II, Duke (18.0%)
4. Scott Patchan, Colorado State (17.1%)
5. Will McDonald, Iowa State (17.0%)
6. Zach Harrison, Ohio State (16.8%)
7. Jonathan Cooper, Ohio State (16.3%)
8. Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma (15.8%)
9. John Morgan, Pitt (15.7%)
10. Rashad Weaver, Pitt (15.0%)

Between them, Smith, Harrison and Cooper logged only 7.5 sacks in seven games, but their impact was clear: Their pressure forced 31 incompletions and three interceptions.

Clemson's offensive line was the closest thing to a weakness the Tigers had. Alabama's might be the best in the country. Asking anyone to win the battle with the Tide front might be a bit much, but Ohio State has the skill to win its share of fights.

That's doubly true with dikkerson out. The Rimington Trophy winner (best center) was the center of gravity for this Bama line, but he was lost for the playoffs with a knee injury against Florida. When he's out, Alabama isn't as good at running the football.

• Alabama rushing success rate with dikkerson (sans sacks or scrambles): 55.2%
  
  
• Alabama rushing success rate without dikkerson: 47.0%
  

Against Notre Dame, the Tide managed a rushing success rate of 45.5% (above average overall) which was the team's third-worst of the season (45% against Georgia, 38% against Missouri), and Harris' glorious hurdle and 53-yard explosion in the first quarter against the Irish distracted us from the fact that after the first quarter, he gained just 46 yards on 12 carries. If the Buckeyes avoid big-play destruction in the passing game and force the Tide to work 4 to 6 yards at a time between tackles, then Smith, Harrison and Cooper will get more third-down pass-rushing chances, and Ohio State can make sure Alabama has to execute well in the red zone to get six points.

 

[Skooby]

3. Win the red zone

We speak of Clemson's 2018 title-game win over Alabama as a blowout, and technically it was: The final score was 44-16. But for the most part, the Tigers simply won the situational battle.

Alabama utterly dominated first downs in that game -- 8.2 yards per play to 4.1, 61% success rate to 23% -- but despite facing longer distances, the Tigers were a third-down buzzsaw (10-for-15 to Bama's 4-for-13). And when the ball inched closer to the goal line, they got better and better.

Not including a late Tigers drive that killed off the clock, Clemson and Alabama each created six scoring opportunities (touchdowns or first downs inside the opponent's 40). Clemson scored 37 points on five touchdowns and a field goal; Bama scored 16 points on two touchdowns, a field goal and three second-half turnovers on downs, including a ghastly fake field goal attempt. Both teams "won" about the same number of plays in the game, but Clemson won all the important ones. That's an awfully difficult recipe to replicate, but it can be done.

Third downs are part of that script, and Smith, Harrison and Cooper could be key. But the red zone will offer another opportunity. Alabama's goal-to-go touchdown rate is 82%, only 45th in FBS, and of the 11 turnovers the Tide have suffered, four of them have come from inside the opponent's 20 -- fumbles at the opponent's 1, 3, 7 and 11. Plus, while Jones has thrown only seven interceptions in 511 career passes, among them are passes thrown from the opponent's 2, 22, 31, 32 and 39.

As the field shrinks, Bama's offense becomes a bit more mortal, something Ohio State must take advantage of. Field goals and red zone turnovers would quickly flip the overall advantage in this game.

What can Justin Fields do for an encore?
Remember about 10 days ago, when we were all acting like Fields was having a disappointing season? The junior from Kennesaw, Georgia, admittedly made some dreadful decisions against Indiana and Northwestern, but he still entered the Sugar Bowl semifinals against Clemson with the No. 3 QBR in the country.

Now, he's No. 2. He might not be able to catch Jones for the top spot, but he played maybe the single most impressive game of the season against the Tigers, completing 22 of 28 passes for 385 yards and six touchdowns. He did all this despite taking one of the most painful-looking hits you'll ever see from James Skalski in the second quarter. Skalski got ejected for targeting -- a "you were too much of a danger to yourself" call as much as anything -- and while Ohio State inexcusably has yet to share any real specifics on Fields' injury (and didn't even share any with him during the game), anything from broken ribs to a ruptured spleen would be believable. It was a brutal hit to the side, and he was in clear pain, yet he still dominated Clemson to a degree no one had under defensive coordinator Brent Venables.

Anything else written from this point forward is written under the assumption that, pain or no pain, Fields will play to 100% of his capabilities. We obviously don't know whether that's true, and if he's limited, it's going to be hard for the Buckeyes to keep up on the scoreboard. But we'll break things down as if we're getting the regular version of Fields.

Perhaps fearing Fields' escapability (or his receiving corps), Clemson blitzed a surprisingly small amount of the time in New Orleans.

Fields' passing vs. Clemson (blitz): 5-for-6, 42 yards, 1 sack

Fields' passing vs. Clemson (no blitz): 17-for-22, 343 yards, 1 sack

Including sacks as pass yards, Fields averaged 4.9 yards per attempt when blitzed and 14.8 yards per attempt when not blitzed.

Alabama blitzes a pretty normal amount -- 28% of dropbacks, 50th in FBS -- but that percentage actually shrinks to 27% (67th) on third-and-5 or more and 17% on third-and-10 or more (78th). One wonders whether Saban and defensive coordinator Pete Golding will try to ramp up the pressure, not because of the pain it would inflict (although that's probably not a detrimental thought to a defensive coach), but because Fields has been awful under pressure this year.

Fields with no pressure (2020): 81% completion rate, 10.7 yards per dropback (including sacks and scrambles), 2.0% INT rate, 94.8 raw QBR

Fields under pressure (2020): 49% completion rate, 2.5 yards per dropback, 6.7% INT rate, 7.9 raw QBR

As I wrote before the semifinals, "In a clean pocket, he's Mac Jones. When hurried, Fields has been worse than Vanderbilt's Ken Seals." I expected the Tigers to get a solid amount of pressure on him, and I expected that to define the game." But they didn't, and to his credit, he handled the pressure well when it did come: he was 6-for-8 for 107 yards, albeit with two sacks.

Of course, there is another reason why Clemson didn't blitz that much or generate enough pressure: The Buckeyes weren't behind schedule enough.

 

[Skooby]

Trey Sermon clearing an absurdly high bar
Heading into the Sugar Bowl, only one player in the past four seasons rushed for over 150 yards in a game against Clemson: Ohio State's J.K. Dobbins in last year's epic Fiesta Bowl (174). Now there are two Buckeyes backs atop that list.

Most rushing yards in a game against Clemson, 2017-20:
1. Sermon (193)
2. Dobbins (174)
3. Kyren Williams, Notre Dame 2020 (140)
4. Zonovan Knight, NC State 2019 (139)
5. KirVonte Benson, Georgia Tech 2017 (129)

Sermon has been a late-season revelation. The Oklahoma transfer averaged a decent but unspectacular 58 yards and 5.2 yards per carry through his first four games as a Buckeye, but beginning against Michigan State on Dec. 5, he entered another realm. Against Sparty, Northwestern and Clemson, he carried 70 times for 636 yards (9.1 per carry!!) and four touchdowns. With Fields struggling against Northwestern, Sermon single-handedly engineered a comeback bid with 331 yards, and he was the steady engine that set up an explosive passing day against Clemson.

Now he sets his sights on an even loftier target:

Most rushing yards in a game against Alabama, 2014-20:
1. Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State 2014 (230)
2. Nick Chubb, Georgia 2015 (146)
3. Snoop Conner, Ole Miss 2020 (128)
4. Jerrion Ealy, Ole Miss 2020 (120)
5. JaTarvious Whitlow, Auburn 2019 (114)

The Buckeyes have mastered the art of late-season running back surges. In the last four games of 2019, Dobbins averaged 179 rushing yards per game at 6.1 yards per carry, and in the last five games of 2014, Zeke put a team with a backup quarterback on his back, averaging 185 yards per game and 8.7 yards per carry. He topped 220 yards in each of the last three games, and his 20-carry, 230-yard performance against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl is remembered as one of the best single-game performances in school history.

In another game in which Alabama won more plays, but its opponent won the right plays, Ohio State erased a 21-6 first-half deficit with a 28-0 run. Cardale Jones threw for 243 yards, and the Buckeyes' defense made three timely picks of Bama QB Blake Sims -- two in Ohio State territory, one returned for a touchdown. With the score 34-28 and under four minutes remaining, Elliott exploded off-tackle for "85 yards through the heart of the South," as the T-shirt reads.

The Alabama run defense has been fine this year, but not necessarily up to typical Bama standards. The Tide are 20th in rushing success rate allowed and 29th in rushing marginal explosiveness, a measure of the magnitude of successful plays (adjusted for field position). A Tide defender has made multiple run stops (stuffs of a designed run at or behind the line) in a game only four times this year.

As with the entire defense, the Bama defensive front has improved as the season has progressed. The Tide gave up a combined 248 rushing yards to Ole Miss' Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy in the third game of the season, but only one player has topped even 70 yards since (LSU's John Emery Jr., who got 54 on one carry and ended with 79). And only one team has topped 17 points in Bama's past eight outings.

Still, this is the best run game Alabama has faced by far. Master Teague III carried a vital load against Indiana (26 carries, 169 yards), and while his status is uncertain -- he missed the Clemson game while supposedly under concussion protocol -- freshman backup Steele Chambers has averaged 9.6 yards per carry in limited opportunities.

Sermon doesn't have to rush for 230 yards to beat Bama (it would help!), but if he can keep Ohio State mostly on schedule, Fields will be in position to succeed. And if Fields isn't under pressure, this is the most explosive offense in college football.

The only teams that made Bama sweat deep into the fourth quarter this year were the two most built to keep up in a track meet. Ole Miss gained 20-plus yards on 8.8% of its snaps this year (15th in FBS), while Florida did on 10.4% (second). These two teams produced nine such gains each on Bama and averaged 47 points between them against the Tide. Bama's other 10 opponents: 2.8 such gains and 13.4 points per game.

You need explosiveness to have a chance, and Ohio State has more than anybody: The Buckeyes have gained 20-plus yards on 10.5% of their snaps, narrowly edging the Gators for first. They don't bring quite the unique matchups to the table that Florida did this year, but Sermon is peaking, and Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson have combined for 82 catches, 1,333 yards (12.6 per target) and 12 touchdowns despite Olave missing the Big Ten championship.

The Buckeyes also got tight ends involved against Clemson (Jeremy Ruckert and Luke Farrell combined for five catches and three touchdowns), and that could be another key against a Bama defense that has allowed opponents to throw short and over the middle -- opponents have averaged 8.3 yards per pass between the hashes (66th) with a 54% success rate (95th). While the tag team of Olave and Wilson vs. Patrick Surtain II and Josh Jobe will be absolutely dynamite, tight ends could be a source of free yardage.

If there's a special-teams advantage, it's likely Alabama's
The Buckeyes' special-teams unit is mostly fine -- it feels like Drue Chrisman has been Ohio State's punter since Earle Bruce was the coach, but he's still there and still strong -- but they haven't gotten much out of their return game, and kicker Blake Haubeil is 5-for-7 on field goals.

Alabama, on the other hand, is rock solid. Will Reichard is 13-for-13 on field goals (5-for-5 over 40 yards), Devonta Smith is one of the best punt returners in the country, and if Waddle can contribute, it could come on kick returns, where he's also one of the nation's best. You never know when a special-teams advantage will rear its head, but if it does, the Tide are more likely to benefit.

What will happen?
SP+ projection: Alabama 35.3, Ohio State 31.0
Caesars by William Hill projection: Alabama 41.5, Ohio State 33.5 (Bama -8, 75 total points)

No matter who wins, we will see history on Monday. If Alabama prevails, it's the Tide's sixth national title in 12 seasons, cementing probably the greatest extended run of elite play in the sport's history, with maybe Saban's best team to date. If Ohio State wins, a yearlong Buckeyes redemption story reaches its completion, despite the countless ways this season nearly went off the rails.

For almost literally any football game, you could conclude a preview by saying, "I think this will come down to big plays, turnovers and red zone execution" and be totally right. That's just how football works. But it's hard to reach any other conclusion here.

The numbers support Alabama because, well, Alabama has been the best team in the country this year. But Ohio State has the big-play capability and raw muscle to keep up, and the Buckeyes' entire defensive effort hinges around preventing huge gains. If this becomes a game of funky bounces, other little things and who can score touchdowns instead of field goals, it becomes a toss-up very quickly.

 

[Jplaya2023]

Let's project all 14 seeds in next season's NFL playoffs: Why the Bucs and Packers will be back

 

[Skooby]

Let's project all 14 seeds in next season's NFL playoffs: Why the Bucs and Packers will be back

Predicting the 2021 NFL playoff bracket: 14 teams that will make next season's field, including the Bucs, Packers and Jaguars


Turnover is a fact of life in the NFL. Even as the league added two playoff teams to make a 14-team bracket in 2020, five of the 12 teams that made it to the postseason in 2019 didn't make a return trip this season. That's a group that includes the 49ers, who were the top seed in the NFC and its representatives in Super Bowl LIV, and the Patriots, who had made it to the playoffs in 17 of the previous 19 seasons. The Texans, Vikings and Eagles also failed to make it back into January, with two of those three not even coming particularly close.

Let's try to project what the 2021 playoff picture might look like by the time we get to the end of next season. Let me start with the obvious: It's going to be wrong. We don't know who will even be coaching the Eagles or Texans or whether their starting quarterbacks will be sticking around for another season. In doing this, I'm predicting that there's a small chance either Deshaun Watson or Carson Wentz will be traded to one of their more obvious suitors, such as the Dolphins or Jets.

We know that the Colts will have a new starting quarterback, as Philip Rivers announced his retirement Wednesday, but Drew Brees' future with the Saints is still up in the air. We don't even know whether fans will be able to cheer in stadiums come September.

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs
While the Chiefs are unsurprisingly my pick for the top seed in the AFC, they actually look like a regression candidate in 2021, given that they were 14-2 with the point differential of a 10.5-win team. They went 8-0 in one-score games this season after going 10-8 in those same games during the first two years of the Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs might seem infallible in those close games, and there's nobody I would rather have than Mahomes, but the 2011 and 2012 Packers come to mind as a similar example, with Aaron Rodgers & Co. going from 15-1 to 11-5 the following season.



Baltimore Ravens[/paste:font]
The Ravens might have come up short in the divisional round, but by the end of the regular season they had quietly made a case as one of the NFL's best teams. They finished the season with the league's best point differential and were fourth in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) rankings. John Harbaugh's team torched an easy schedule over the final five weeks, with quarterback Lamar Jackson posting a league-best 93.8 QBR over that stretch.


Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue potentially leaving in unrestricted free agency, but they have the league's best record (31-8) since Jackson took over as quarterback.

3. Miami Dolphins
Well, here's a turn. The Dolphins are here because I'm projecting them to win the AFC East, something they weren't able to do as the Bills ascended to their first division title in the four-team era. Brian Flores' team probably won't have Ryan Fitzpatrick back, but it seems fair to suggest that Tua Tagovailoa will be better with a true offseason in his first full year as Miami's starting quarterback. I'm also baking in a 5% chance that the Dolphins trade for Deshaun Watson.

2021 NFL draft to add to an already-talented roster. They also will have more than $25 million to work with in an offseason that represents the ninth-largest amount of cap space in the league, per Spotrac. Bills fans won't have to wait long to see where I think they'll end up, but they could be neck-and-neck for the division next season.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Record scratch. The Jaguars aren't winning the AFC South, right? They went 1-15 this season. Teams that go 1-15 don't win their division the following year. This is just an attempt to be provocative. Right?

Well, teams that go 1-15 or somewhere in that ballpark almost always get better. Sometimes, like the 2020 Bengals, they go from 2-14 to 4-11-1. That's not going to win any divisions. Other times, though, they get a lot better really quickly. The 2013 Texans went from 2-14 to 9-7 in 2014. The 2011 Colts went from 2-14 to 11-5 and made the playoffs. The 2012 Chiefs went from 2-14 to 11-5 and also made it to the postseason.

In the ultimate reminder of how quickly things can change, the 2007 Dolphins went 1-15 in a division with the 16-0 Patriots. Anybody who picked the 2008 Dolphins to win the division in print would have been immediately fired, but after Tom Brady got hurt and the Dolphins harnessed the power of both the Wildcat and Chad Pennington, Miami won the AFC East. Changes in the NFL come faster than anybody expects.


Each of the teams I mentioned upgraded its quarterback and swapped out its coach. Jacksonville is doing that, and while Urban Meyer might not turn out to be an effective NFL coach, he has had success everywhere he has gone at the college level. Presumptive No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence would seem to be a dramatic upgrade on the combination of Gardner Minshew and Mike Glennon at quarterback, and the Jags have the offensive line to help keep him afloat. They have nearly $76 million in cap space in a market in which no team has money. They could add all kinds of help in free agency in March.


5. Buffalo Bills
The Bills could very well be representing the AFC in Super Bowl LV, and they'll return all of their young core for 2021. They're also expected to get another year with Brian Daboll after the offensive coordinator didn't get the vacant Chargers job, which should help keep Josh Allen humming after his breakout season in 2020. Allen might take some minor steps backward in 2021 out of sheer year-to-year variance, but he still projects to be one of the league's best quarterbacks.

Instead, I'm expecting a small step backward for the Bills for a couple of reasons. One is that they went 13-3 with the point differential of a 10.6-win team. They went 4-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer and got to that point differential only after finishing the season by winning three consecutive games by 29-plus points. They have one of the league's deepest lineups, but they're basically at the cap line for 2021 before giving Allen a lucrative extension.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers will be in transition in 2021 regardless of whether they get back Ben Roethlisberger for one final season. I'm expecting Roethlisberger to return and play about the way he did in 2020, but Pittsburgh is $25 million over the projected cap before re-signing edge rusher Bud Dupree, wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and offensive tackle Alejandro Villanueva. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which the Steelers have a more talented roster than the one they had on the field in 2020.

Mason Rudolph's performance throwing deep in Week 17 might have given true believers some hope, but this is probably Roethlisberger or bust next year.

7. New England Patriots
Them? Already? Yes, I think the Patriots will be back. They have to figure out their quarterback situation with Cam Newton as a free agent, but the Pats will get back several COVID-19 opt-outs -- including offensive tackle Marcus Cannon, safety Patrick Chung and linebacker Dont'a Hightower -- and still have nearly $59 million in projected cap space. I trust Bill Belichick to make good use of that cap space in a market in which veterans will be forced to take one-year deals for less than most expect. Belichick is also in position to attack his team's biggest weakness in a deep wideout market this spring.

Jarrett Stidham. Belichick will have a starting job on a team with a solid offensive line, and unlike this season, he'll have the cap space to pursue options. Dak Prescott probably won't hit the market, but it wouldn't be shocking to see the Pats as the favorites to add someone such as Ryan Fitzpatrick. If Jimmy Garoppolo comes free in San Francisco, a reunion with the team that drafted him could be in the cards.

 

[Skooby]

Teams that will miss the playoffs
The Tennessee Titans would be the highest-profile team to miss out on a return to the postseason. I'm concerned about Derrick Henry, who just finished the largest workload we've seen for a running back in recent memory. It's tough to count on Henry to be quite as productive in 2021, and any absence or decline from the star back could impact the entire Tennessee offense. The Titans will also need to find a way to address their dismal pass rush despite entering the offseason $7 million over the projected cap.

While the Indianapolis Colts came within a missed field goal and one final drive of vanquishing the Bills, Indy has a lot of work to do this offseason. Philip Rivers retired and Jacoby Brissett is a free agent, as are wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and outside linebacker Justin Houston. Offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo also retired, leaving the Colts with holes at several key positions on offense. They have a lot of work to do this offseason, and they'll be competing with teams such as the Patriots for quarterback options. Indy also played the league's second-easiest schedule by FPI in 2020.


I'm one of the many who think that the Cleveland Browns are on the right track, but Cleveland was at least a little lucky to make it into January. Kevin Stefanski's team was outscored across the 2020 season and went 7-2 in one-score games while playing the league's easiest schedule. Advanced metrics like FPI and DVOA thought the Browns were a league-average team, and while average gets teams close to the postseason in the 14-team era, I think the Browns have a consolidation year in 2021.



NFC


1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady & Co. finished the regular season as the second-best team in football by DVOA, coming in just behind the Saints and ahead of the Packers. Brady improved as the year went along and doesn't look to be close to falling off of any sort of age cliff, although that could happen at any time given the fact that he will be 44 next season. The Bucs are also in danger of losing wide receiver Chris Godwin and pass-rusher Shaq Barrett in free agency.


With that being said, they will return their star-laden offensive line and one of the league's deepest secondaries. They should be able to bring back wideout Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski at less than their actual value, and in a market in which players could be settling for less amid a reduced salary cap, the Bucs are going to be an appealing market for veterans on one-year deals. They are in position to be among the best teams in football again next season.




2. Green Bay Packers
The Packers continue to find a way to outplay their point differential since Matt LaFleur took over as coach. In 2019, they managed some late-game magic and went 7-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. This season, while they only went 3-2 in those same games, they got an MVP season out of Aaron Rodgers and converted 80% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, the highest conversion rate of the past 20 years. Rodgers might not be the MVP next season, and that touchdown rate is sure to come down, but Green Bay has enough talent on both sides of the ball to run it back as one of the best teams in the NFC.


The Packers are $25 million over the projected 2021 cap and have several key free agents (notably running back Aaron Jones and center Corey Linsley), so this roster will probably shed some talent. Given how strong they are at passing and stopping the pass, though, they should remain one of the top teams in the conference.



3. Dallas Cowboys
Somebody has to win the NFC East, and if the Cowboys hadn't lost quarterback Dak Prescott to a gruesome ankle injury early in the season, it probably would have been them. Dallas also went without the three stars on its offensive line for most of the season and hired the wrong defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan, with previously talented Cowboys linebackers and linemen suddenly struggling to create reliable run fits or make tackles.

The Cowboys should be healthier in 2021, and we saw their offense's upside while Prescott was in the lineup. They have the highest upside of any team in the division, and if they can fix the secondary this offseason, their ceiling might be as Super Bowl contenders. Of course, as we saw in 2020, few teams seem better at getting in their own way or creating their own problems.


Prescott hadn't ever missed a game before his freak injury, so if we expect him to play something close to a full season in 2021, the Cowboys should be in good shape to win their division.



4. San Francisco 49ers
Who will be at quarterback for the 49ers in 2021? Back in November, I wrote about why it might not be Jimmy Garoppolo. Regardless of who it ends up being, he's likely to be better than what the Niners had in 2020, when Garoppolo started and finished only three total games.

NFL Playoffs
• Conference championship previews »
• Schedule, brackets, TV times »


The 49ers lost defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to the Jets, but they're also going to be healthier in 2021 than they were in 2020, and that's going to mean they have more talent on the field. As good as Saleh has been over the past two years, every team in the league would prefer 16 games of pass-rusher Nick Bosa to a full season from a defensive coordinator. The 49ers should look more like their 2019 selves in 2021, and that should get them back atop the NFC West.



5. Seattle Seahawks
Just behind the 49ers are the Seahawks, who seem set to retreat away from the Let Russ Cook offense of 2020 into something closer to their Let Russ Hand Off attacks of prior seasons. They still need to hire an offensive coordinator, which might hint further to their plans. They finished the season sixth in offensive DVOA, and while they were fifth in DVOA in 2019, it might be tough for them to keep that up again in 2021.


Seattle will hope that its second-half surge on defense will stick with a healthier group of players next season, although much of that raw improvement came against backup quarterbacks. Pete Carroll's team would also seem set to improve by virtue of having their fans back in the stadium in 2021, but it was 7-1 at home in 2020 before losing to the Rams in the wild-card round. Another 12-4 season might be a big ask, but the Seahawks should be back in the 10-win range again in 2021.

 

[Skooby]

6. Atlanta Falcons
For the first time in several years, the Chargers will not be appearing as a team likely to improve or decline in my columns before the 2021 season. They're being replaced on the teams likely to improve list by the Falcons, who suffered through a typical Chargers season in 2020. The 4-12 Falcons were 3.6 wins below their Pythagorean expectation, which is the biggest underperformance we've seen over the past 20 years. The closest comparables are the 2001 Chargers (who jumped from 5-11 to 8-8) and the 2017 Browns (who went from 0-16 to 7-8-1).


Atlanta will have better luck in 2021. That alone might not be enough to get it into the postseason, but the arrival of coach Arthur Smith from Tennessee could revitalize an inconsistent offense. The defense remains a question mark after years of mediocre play, but if another team in the South takes a step backward, the Falcons -- who get to play a last-place schedule -- could be the most likely beneficiaries.



7. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams will reportedly hire former Falcons interim coach Raheem Morris to take over as their defensive coordinator, which gives them a promising candidate to replace newly departed Chargers coach Brandon Staley. Even if Staley had stayed, it would have been tough for the Rams to repeat as the league's top scoring defense in 2021, if only just as a product of year-to-year variance. As long as defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey stay healthy, this should remain a very good defense next year.



The question, then, is whether the offense can pick up the slack. Jared Goff & Co. improved from 16th to 10th in DVOA with improved offensive line play, although coach Sean McVay was more aggressive in criticizing Goff at the end of the year. My guess is that he will be playing for his Rams future in 2021 and respond with a better campaign than the inconsistent season we saw in 2020. If that happens, the Rams should be able to sneak in as the final seed in the NFC.

Teams that will miss the playoffs
The New Orleans Saints are the team most conspicuous by their absence, but you can probably guess why I'm skeptical. Drew Brees' expected retirement and the $100-plus-million cap hole the Saints find themselves in heading into 2021 mean this roster will be significantly less talented than the one we saw over the past several seasons. Coach Sean Payton is still going to be an offensive genius, but New Orleans' 2021 season feels like it could be similar to the Patriots' 2020.

I'm concerned that a weakened Saints team will have to play a first-place schedule. The same is true for the Washington Football Team, which finished the season with a positive point differential despite playing with four different starting quarterbacks. It's unclear who will start for Washington in 2021, and the more difficult schedule might prove too much for a team that is still in significant transition on both sides of the ball under Ron Rivera.

The Chicago Bears barely sneaked into the playoffs at 8-8, and while they've decided to bring back coach Matt Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace for another season, they're nearly $10 million over the projected cap and have only Nick Foles at quarterback. The return of those executives makes it more likely that the Bears will run things back with Foles and Mitchell Trubisky (a free agent), which doesn't seem appealing to me. The Bears may also lose star wide receiver Allen Robinson, which will make this offense even more unwatchable. I'm skeptical that the Bears make it back.

 

[Jplaya2023]

Barnwell: Tom Brady's 10 Super Bowl paths, and where this run ranks among the toughest ever

 

[Da_Eggman]

Debuting Mel Kiper's first 2021 NFL mock draft: Where will Fields, Wilson and Lance go?

 

[Da_Eggman]

Barnwell creates trade offers for Deshaun Watson: Ranking all 17 from least to most likely

Did we just see the best rookie WR class ever? Revisiting our 2020 draft tiers

 

[Skooby]

Barnwell: Tom Brady's 10 Super Bowl paths, and where this run ranks among the toughest ever

Ranking Tom Brady's toughest Super Bowl paths: Where the 2020 Bucs season stacks up with his nine Patriots runs

Typically, we don't get to see a player take 10 different paths to the Super Bowl. Tom Brady is the exception to that rule, and after Sunday's upset win over the Packers, the Bucs quarterback is on his way to Super Bowl No. 10. No other player has appeared in more than six, so the former Patriots star is on an island unto himself here. And while there are a lot of reasons Brady might find this most recent trip satisfying, something stood out to me: This path to the Super Bowl might have been the toughest of the bunch.

For one, Brady has had to travel to get to this championship game. While the Bucs will be the first team in league history to play a Super Bowl at home, coach Bruce Arians & Co. have had to win three road tilts to make it to the title game. That's not unprecedented -- four other teams have won three road games to make it to the Super Bowl -- but it's something new for Brady. Across his first nine trips to the Super Bowl, he needed to win a total of only three games on the road. Fifteen of the 18 AFC playoff games during those Super Bowl runs were in Foxborough.

This is also the first time Brady has had to win three games to make it to the Super Bowl, as the Patriots had a bye in each of his nine other runs through the playoffs. You might snicker and joke that Taylor Heinicke and the 7-9 Washington Football Team weren't much competition, but the Bucs still had a better chance of losing to Washington than a typical Pats team did of losing on the bye.

The quarterbacks Brady had to face were what really stood out to me. Leave Heinicke aside and consider who will be standing across from Brady in two weeks, and you're looking at a pretty devastating group of opponents. That got me thinking and researching.

I went back through Brady's 10 Super Bowl seasons and where this run to a possible Super Bowl victory might stand in terms of difficulty. I'll start with the easiest path, work my way to the toughest, and see where it might compare to some of the most difficult Super Bowl paths ever:



10. 2017 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 32-16 (.667)
Quarterbacks faced: Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Nick Foles
Road games: 0
Super Bowl result: Loss, 41-33


Yes, Brady's easiest path to a Super Bowl didn't produce a victory, in part because the AFC South did the dirty work. The Pats lost 42-27 to the Chiefs in the opener, but Kansas City was upset in the wild-card round by Tennessee. The only other team with more than 10 wins in the AFC was the 13-3 Steelers, but they lost in a wild game against the Jaguars in the divisional round. The three quarterbacks the Patriots faced across this run didn't strike fear in any defense.

And yet, the Patriots did not win the big one. They probably were lucky to get to the AFC Championship Game, given that Myles Jack's fumble return for a touchdown that would have given the Jags a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter was whistled dead. The Pats came back to win. Despite a 505-yard game from Brady in Super Bowl LII, they weren't able to do the same there.

This Pats team finished the season 31st in defensive DVOA, and when Foles and the Eagles ripped them apart in Minneapolis, it showed. Coordinator Matt Patricia got a head-coaching job after this season anyway.



9. 2011 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 29-19 (.604)
Quarterbacks faced: Tim Tebow, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning
Road Games: 0
Super Bowl result: Loss, 21-17

This is basically a carbon copy of the 2017 path. A 12-4 Steelers team was pushed aside in the wild-card round in one of the great upsets of the past decade by the 8-8 Broncos, in part because Ben Roethlisberger was playing on a bad ankle. The Giants team that beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl was 9-7 and outscored by six points during the regular season; New York made it to Indy only because Kyle Williams muffed two punts in the NFC Championship Game for the 49ers.

And yet, the Patriots struggled. They nearly lost in the AFC Championship Game to the Ravens, only for Lee Evans to drop a touchdown pass with 27 seconds left before Billy Cundiff missed a 32-yard field goal attempt that would have pushed the game into overtime. With Rob Gronkowski battling his own ankle injury in the Super Bowl, Brady took a safety in the first quarter and failed to turn the vaunted double-score just before and after halftime into a victory for the first and only time in his career. That Pats team ranked 30th in defensive DVOA, so as was the case in 2017, Brady didn't get much help.



8. 2007 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 32-16 (.667)
Quarterbacks faced: David Garrard, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning
Road games: 0
Super Bowl result: Loss, 17-14

The three easiest paths to the Super Bowl for Brady all came in years when the Patriots ended up losing the championship game. This was a year in which the AFC seemed to be setting up for a Patriots-Colts conference title contest, but Indy was upset as 11-point favorites at San Diego in the divisional round. In the process, Rivers tore his ACL. He somehow played through the injury, but LaDainian Tomlinson injured his knee on the opening drive and didn't return, while Antonio Gates spent the entire game playing through a dislocated toe. Brady threw three interceptions in a dismal game by his standards, but the Chargers were overmatched with their stars compromised.


You know what happened in Super Bowl XLII. The Giants were able to get relentless pressure on Brady with their front four, a possibly injured Randy Moss had a quiet game, and Manning did just enough to win the game for the Giants in the fourth. The defensive coordinator for the Giants that day, as you might remember, was Steve Spagnuolo. Thirteen years later, Spagnuolo will be formulating a game plan to beat Brady as the defensive coordinator of the Chiefs.



7. 2016 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 31-17 (.646)
Quarterbacks faced: Brock Osweiler, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan
Road games: 0
Super Bowl result: Win, 34-28

The Pats didn't lose this Super Bowl, but they famously came close before coming back from a 28-3 deficit. Ryan won league MVP that season and was on fire under offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan; the 135.3 passer rating Ryan posted that postseason is the third best in league history for a quarterback with at least 50 attempts. The Falcons quarterback might not end up in the Hall of Fame, but he was playing at that sort of level in 2016.

On the other hand, Osweiler is the worst quarterback Brady has faced in a Super Bowl run outside of Tebow and arguably Heinicke. Osweiler threw three picks and averaged 4.9 yards per attempt in a 34-16 blowout to finish his brief career with the Texans. The Pats beat the Steelers in a game in which Roethlisberger was healthy, but Le'Veon Bell went down injured in the first quarter and only briefly returned.



6. 2014 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 33-15 (.688)
Quarterbacks faced: Joe Flacco, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson
Road games: 0
Super Bowl result: Win, 28-24

Despite it seeming like Brady and Peyton Manning ended up playing in the postseason every year, this was another season in which their inevitable matchup didn't happen. Manning threw 39 touchdown passes for a 12-4 Broncos team, only for Denver to lose at home to the Colts in the divisional round. The Patriots were seven-point favorites over the Ravens and Colts in Foxborough, although it took a controversial (albeit legal) unbalanced line tactic to throw off the Ravens and launch a comeback from 14 down in the second half of the divisional round.

The Seahawks were tougher competition in the Super Bowl, which memorably came down to Malcolm Butler's interception on the goal line. This was when the Seahawks were still a run-first team, as Wilson threw only 21 passes during the Super Bowl. Even so, given that the Pats were facing a defense full of stars, this was one of their tougher Super Bowl challenges. New England was favored in seven of its nine Super Bowls with Brady; it was a 14-point underdog against the Rams and a pick 'em here.



5. 2001 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 37-11 (.771)
Quarterbacks faced: Rich Gannon, Kordell Stewart, Kurt Warner
Road games: 1
Super Bowl result: Win, 20-17

Speaking of that Rams game, here are the 2001 Patriots. There's a big gap between the bottom five and the five tougher paths on this list. This isn't necessarily the scariest list of quarterbacks, but the Patriots had to win on the road against a 13-3 Steelers team and then face a Rams offense whose numbers look more like a dominant 2020 offense than something that belonged in 2001. Those Rams scored 31.4 points per game, converted 50% of their third downs and scored touchdowns nearly 64% of the time in the red zone, leading the league in each category.

Of course, Brady was in just his second pro season and contributed less to this run than the other nine. His offense scored 16 points against the Raiders and 13 against the Rams, with Ty Law chipping in a pick-six against Warner. The Pats scored two special-teams touchdowns against the Steelers in a game in which Brady suffered a leg injury in the first half and did not return. At the end, though, Brady played a key role. With John Madden urging the Patriots to kneel and take the game to overtime, Belichick trusted his quarterback and let Brady lead a nine-play, 53-yard drive to get Adam Vinatieri in position for a 48-yard field goal.