Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

Jplaya2023 · Dec 10, 2020

Ranking the top 10 NBA players for 2020-21

The six AFC wild-card contenders vying for three spots: Barnwell on the Pats, Dolphins and more

Playoff rankings remain the same, but Ohio State will be the committee's toughest test yet

Skooby · Dec 10, 2020

Alexander The Great said:
Teams that can make real trade offers for James Harden

James Harden trades: Teams that can make real offers

We have come to a crossroads when it comes to the future of James Harden with the Houston Rockets.

Harden indicated to the Rockets before the start of camp that he would be open to a trade to the Philadelphia 76ers or possibly other contenders, according to a report by ESPN's Tim MacMahon and Adrian Wojnarowski.

Harden is under contract through the 2022-23 season, meaning the Rockets can be patient despite having an unhappy superstar on their roster. But what are their options if they decide to pursue a deal now?

The Rockets will look at the package the New Orleans Pelicans received from the Milwaukee Bucks for Jrue Holiday as a starting point -- three first-round picks, two pick swaps and two starter-level players in Eric Bledsoe and George Hill -- although they'll want even more for their MVP guard.

Let's run through Houston's most likely trade partners in a Harden deal.

Houston Rockets
Harden would rank near the top of any trade value list because of both his consistent MVP-level play and the length of his contract. Any team trading for Harden would have him under contract for the next three seasons, although with annual salaries topping $40 million.

To make the money work, a team would need to send out a minimum of $33 million in salary unless it has cap space.

Off the table: Christian Wood (trade restriction), Sterling Brown (trade restriction), Jae'Sean Tate (trade restriction), DeMarcus Cousins (trade restriction), John Wall (aggregate restriction), Bruno Caboclo (trade restriction) and Gerald Green (trade restriction)

First-round assets and trade exceptions

2021 first-round pick (least favorable of their own, Miami and Oklahoma City)
2022 first-round pick
Trade exceptions: $3.6 million, $2.6 million and $1.7 million

Note: From the Russell Westbrook trade, Houston will send Oklahoma City a 2024 first (top-four protected), the right to swap firsts in 2025 (top-10 protected) and a 2026 first (top-four protected). The Rockets have their own firsts in 2023 and 2027 but are not allowed to trade either pick.

Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

James Harden: $41.3 million; player option in 2022-23
Eric Gordon: $16.9 million; free agent in 2024 (no salary protection in 2023-24)
P.J. Tucker: $8.0; free agent in 2021
Danuel House Jr.: $3.7 million; free agent in 2022
David Nwaba: $1.8 million; free agent in 2021 (no salary protection in 2020-21 and counts as zero in outgoing salary)
Ben McLemore: $2.3 million; free agent in 2021
Chris Clemons: $1.5 million; team option in 2021-22 (no salary protection in 2020-21)
KJ Martin: $898,000; free agent in 2024 (no salary protection 2021-22, 2022-23 and a team option in 2023-24)

The Harden suitors
The teams listed below check the boxes when it comes to potential trade partners for Houston. They have a combination of young players on controllable contracts, veterans who can win now and valuable draft assets.

Several teams, including the Los Angeles Lakers, LA Clippers and Dallas Mavericks, lack the draft assets likely to be necessary in a Harden trade.

With those guidelines in mind, here are the teams most likely to be able to acquire Harden:

Boston Celtics
Is this the year that head of basketball operations Danny Ainge is willing to push everything to the middle of the table?

If so, Boston could have the most appealing package for Harden with three-first round picks, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart.

Off the table: Jayson Tatum (poison pill restriction), Tristan Thompson (signing restriction) and Jeff Teague (signing restriction)

First-round assets

Own all future first-round picks (2021-2027)

Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

Kemba Walker: $34.4 million; player option in 2022-23
Jaylen Brown: $23.4 million; free agent in 2024
Marcus Smart: $13.4 million; free agent in 2022
Daniel Theis: $5.0 million; free agent in 2021
Romeo Langford: $3.6 million; restricted free agent in 2023
Aaron Nesmith: $3.5 million; restricted free agent in 2024
Grant Williams: $2.5 million; restricted free agent in 2023
Robert Williams: $2.0 million; restricted free agent in 2022
Payton Pritchard: $2.0 million; restricted free agent in 2024
Carsen Edwards: $1.5 million; team option in 2022-23
Semi Ojeleye: $1.8 million; team option in 2020-21
Javonte Green: $1.5 million; restricted free agent in 2021 (contract is non-guaranteed)

Brooklyn Nets
How does a Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden big three sound?

The Nets check the boxes when it comes to trade packages: borderline All-Star on a controllable contract (Caris LeVert), a young player on a rookie deal (Jarrett Allen), starting-caliber players (Spencer Dinwiddie and Taurean Prince) and future draft picks. But would they gut their roster for the former MVP?

Off the table: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Joe Harris (signing restriction), Jeff Green (signing restriction) and Tyler Johnson (signing restriction)

First-round assets

Own all future first-round picks (2021-2027)

Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

Caris LeVert: $16.2 million; free agent in 2023
Taurean Prince: $12.5 million; free agent in 2022
Spencer Dinwiddie: $11.5 million; player option in 2021-22
DeAndre Jordan: $10.4 million; free agent in 2023
Jarrett Allen: $3.9 million; restricted free agent in 2021
Landry Shamet: $2 million; restricted free agent in 2022
Rodions Kurucs: $1.8 million; team option in 2021-22
Bruce Brown: $1.7 million; restricted free agent in 2021
Nicolas Claxton: $1.5 million; restricted free agent in 2022
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot: $1.8 million; free agent in 2021 (contract is partially guaranteed)

Chicago Bulls
The Bulls' new front office could be tested (and tempted) when it comes to entertaining a Harden package.

Chicago has the large expiring contract needed in Otto Porter Jr., a borderline All-Star in Zach LaVine and young players in Lauri Markkanen, Coby White, Wendell Carter Jr. and Patrick Williams.

Off the table: Garrett Temple (signing restriction) and Denzel Valentine (signing restriction)

First-round assets

Own all future first-round picks (2021-2027)

Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

Otto Porter Jr.: $28.5 million; free agent in 2021
Zach LaVine: $19.5 million; free agent in 2022
Thaddeus Young: $13.5 million; free agent in 2022 ($6 million in salary protection in 2021-22)
Tomas Satoransky: $10.0 million; free agent in 2022 ($5 million in salary protection in 2021-22)
Cristiano Felicio: $7.5 million; free agent in 2021
Patrick Williams: $7.1 million; restricted free agent in 2024
Lauri Markkanen: $6.7 million; restricted free agent in 2021
Coby White: $5.6 million: restricted free agent in 2023
Wendell Carter Jr.: $5.5 million; restricted free agent in 2022
Ryan Arcidiacono: $3.0 million; team option in 2021-22
Chandler Hutchison: $2.4 million; restricted free agent in 2022
Luke Kornet: $2.3 million; free agent in 2021
Daniel Gafford: $1.5 million; team option in 2022-23 (contract is non-guaranteed in 2021-22)

Skooby · Dec 10, 2020

Chicago Bulls
The Bulls' new front office could be tested (and tempted) when it comes to entertaining a Harden package.

Chicago has the large expiring contract needed in Otto Porter Jr., a borderline All-Star in Zach LaVine and young players in Lauri Markkanen, Coby White, Wendell Carter Jr. and Patrick Williams.

Off the table: Garrett Temple (signing restriction) and Denzel Valentine (signing restriction)

First-round assets

Own all future first-round picks (2021-2027)

Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

Otto Porter Jr.: $28.5 million; free agent in 2021
Zach LaVine: $19.5 million; free agent in 2022
Thaddeus Young: $13.5 million; free agent in 2022 ($6 million in salary protection in 2021-22)
Tomas Satoransky: $10.0 million; free agent in 2022 ($5 million in salary protection in 2021-22)
Cristiano Felicio: $7.5 million; free agent in 2021
Patrick Williams: $7.1 million; restricted free agent in 2024
Lauri Markkanen: $6.7 million; restricted free agent in 2021
Coby White: $5.6 million: restricted free agent in 2023
Wendell Carter Jr.: $5.5 million; restricted free agent in 2022
Ryan Arcidiacono: $3.0 million; team option in 2021-22
Chandler Hutchison: $2.4 million; restricted free agent in 2022
Luke Kornet: $2.3 million; free agent in 2021
Daniel Gafford: $1.5 million; team option in 2022-23 (contract is non-guaranteed in 2021-22)

Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have Gary Harris and Will Barton to make the salary work in a Harden trade. The question comes down to the availability of Michael Porter Jr.

The Rockets should consider it a nonstarter if the prized young player is not involved in trade talks.

Off the table: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Monte Morris (extension restriction), Paul Millsap (signing restriction), Facundo Campazzo (signing restriction), JaMychal Green (signing restriction) and Isaiah Hartenstein (signing restriction)

First-round assets

2021 first-round pick
Trade exceptions: $9.5 million, $3.4 million and $1.9 million

Note: Denver will send Oklahoma City a 2023 lottery-protected first-rounder. The Nuggets are allowed to trade a first starting in 2025 but only if the protection in 2023 is eliminated.

Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

Gary Harris: $19.6 million; free agent in 2022
Will Barton: $13.7 million; player option in 2021-22
Michael Porter Jr.: $3.6 million; restricted free agent in 2022
Zeke Nnaji: $2.3 million; restricted free agent in 2024
RJ Hampton: $2.2 million; restricted free agent in 2024
Bol Bol: $2.0 million; restricted free agent in 2022
PJ Dozier: $1.8 million; free agent in 2022 ($1.2 million in salary protection in 2020-21 and none in 2021-22)
Vlatko Cancar: $1.5 million; restricted free agent in 2022 (no salary protection in 2021-22)

Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are on the list because they have James Wiseman and Minnesota's lightly protected 2021 first-rounder. Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney, Wiseman and the pick work for Harden.

But does Houston really want to stare at Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and now Harden for the next three seasons?

Off the table: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Brad Wanamaker (trade restriction) and Kent Bazemore (trade restriction)

First-round assets and trade exceptions

2021 first-round pick from Minnesota, top-three protected (unprotected in 2022 if not conveyed)
2021 own first-round pick (if Nos. 21-30)
2022 own first-round pick
2027 own first-round pick
Exceptions: $9.3 million (disabled), $2.2 million, $1.9 million and $1.6 million

Note: The Warriors owe Memphis a top-four protected first in 2024 from the Andre Iguodala trade. The pick has top-one protection in 2025 and is unprotected in 2026. As a result, the Warriors cannot trade a first until two years after that pick is conveyed.

Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

Andrew Wiggins: $29.5 million, free agent in 2023
Kelly Oubre Jr.: $14.4 million; free agent in 2021
James Wiseman: $8.7 million; restricted free agent in 2024
Kevon Looney: $5.2 million, player option in 2021-22
Jordan Poole: $3.2 million, restricted free agent in 2022
Eric Paschall: $1.8 million, restricted free agent in 2022
Damion Lee: $1.8 million; free agent in 2022 ($600,000 guaranteed in 2020-21 and non-guaranteed in 2021-22)
Marquese Chriss: $1.8 million; free agent in 2021
Alen Smailagic: $1.5 million; free agent in 2023 (non-guaranteed in 2021-22 and 2022-23)
Mychal Mulder: $1.5 million; restricted free agent in 2022 (non-guaranteed in 2020-21 and 2021-22)
Juan Toscano-Anderson: $1.5 million: restricted free agent in 2022 (non-guaranteed in 2020-21 and 2021-22)

Miami Heat
Because the Heat would need to get within $33 million, a Harden package would consist of Andre Iguodala, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson.

The Heat are restricted on draft assets with only their 2025 and 2027 first-rounders available to trade.

Off the table: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo (poison pill restriction), Goran Dragic (trade restriction), Meyers Leonard (trade restriction), Avery Bradley (trade restriction), Udonis Haslem (trade restriction) and Maurice Harkless (trade restriction)

First-round assets and trade exceptions

First-round picks in 2025 and 2027

Note: The Heat have their own first in 2022 and possibly 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027. However, because they owe Oklahoma City an unprotected first in 2021 and a lottery-protected first in 2023 (with additional lottery protection in 2024, 2025 and unprotected in 2026 if not conveyed), the Heat are restricted from trading a future first. They can trade their 2025 first-rounder but only if the protection is lifted in 2023.

Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

Andre Iguodala: $15.0 million; team option in 2021-22
Kelly Olynyk: $12.6 million; player option in 2020-21
Tyler Herro: $3.8 million; restricted free agent in 2023
Precious Achiuwa: $2.6 million; restricted free agent in 2024
Kendrick Nunn: $1.7 million; restricted free agent in 2021
Duncan Robinson: $1.7 million; restricted free agent in 2021
KZ Okpala: $1.5 million; restricted free agent in 2022
Chris Silva: $1.5 million; team option in 2021-22

New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans certainly have the draft assets to swing a deal. However, with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram off the table, Houston would be staring at the expiring contract of JJ Redikk along with a combination of Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

Off the table: Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram (signing restriction), Wenyen Gabriel (signing restriction), Sindarius Thornwell (signing restriction) and Willy Hernangomez (signing restriction)

First-round assets

Own all future first-round picks (2021-2027
2021 Lakers first-rounder (if Nos. 1-8), pick becomes unprotected in 2022 if not conveyed
Right to swap first-round picks with Lakers in 2023
2024 Lakers first-rounder (can be deferred to 2025)
Right to swap first-round picks with Milwaukee in 2024
2025 Milwaukee first-rounder
Right to swap first-round picks with Milwaukee in 2026
2027 Milwaukee first-rounder

Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

Steven Adams: $29.6 million; free agent in 2024 (can be traded starting on Dec. 11)
Eric Bledsoe: $16.9 million; free agent in 2023 (can be traded starting on Dec. 11)
JJ Redikk: $13.0 million, free agent in 2021
Lonzo Ball: $11.0 million, restricted free agent in 2021
Jaxson Hayes: $5.1 million, restricted free agent in 2023
Kira Lewis Jr.: $3.6 million; restricted free agent in 2024
Josh Hart: $3.5 million, restricted free agent in 2021
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: $3.1 million, restricted free agent in 2023
Nicolo Melli: $3.9 million, restricted free agent in 2021

Skooby · Dec 10, 2020

New York Knicks
The Knicks are the rare team that has cap space to take back Harden without sending back $33 million. But will they go for it?

New York spent the offseason taking a conservative approach, signing veteran free agents to one-year contracts. Swinging for the fences here would accelerate the rebuild but at a significant cost.

Off the table: Alec Burks (signing exception), Nerlens Noel (signing exception), Austin Rivers (signing exception) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (signing exception)

Cap space: $18.5 million

First-round assets and trade exceptions

Own all future first-round picks (2021-2027)
2021 Dallas first-round pick (unprotected)
2023 Dallas first-round pick (top-10 protected)

Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

Julius Randle: $18.9 million; free agent in 2022 ($3 million protection in 2021-22)
RJ Barrett: $8.2 million; restricted free agent in 2023
Frank Ntilikina: $6.2 million; restricted free agent in 2021
Dennis Smith Jr.: $5.7 million; restricted free agent in 2021
Obi Toppin: $4.8 million; restricted free agent in 2024
Elfrid Payton: $4.8 million; free agent in 2021
Kevin Knox: $4.6 million; restricted free agent in 2022
Reggie Bullock: $4.2 million; free agent in 2021
Immanuel Quickley: $2.1 million; restricted free agent in 2024
Jacob Evans: $2.0 million; restricted free agent in 2022
Omari Spellman: $2.0 million; restricted free agent in 2022
Mitchell Robinson: $1.7 million; team option in 2021-22
Ignas Brazdeikis: $1.5 million; restricted free agent in 2022

Philadelphia 76ers
We all know the history between new Philly president Daryl Morey and James Harden. It was Morey who traded for Harden back in 2012.

To get Houston even to the trade table, any type of package would have to center around All-Star Ben Simmons, Matisse Thybulle and future draft picks.

Off the table: Dwight Howard (trade restriction), Danny Green (aggregate restriction), Terrance Ferguson (aggregate restriction) and Vincent Poirier (aggregate restriction)

First-round assets and trade exceptions

Own all future first-round picks (2021-2027)
Exceptions: $1.9 million and $1.8 million

Note: Philadelphia will send Oklahoma City a 2025 protected first-rounder, meaning the 76ers are only allowed to trade a first-rounder in 2021, 2022 or 2023.

Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

Tobias Harris: $34.4 million; unrestricted free agent in 2024
Ben Simmons: $30.6 million; unrestricted free agent in 2025
Joel Embiid: $29.5 million; unrestricted free agent in 2023
Seth Curry: $7.8 million; unrestricted free agent in 2023
Mike Scott: $5.0 million; unrestricted free agent in 2021
Matisse Thybulle: $2.7 million; restricted free agent in 2023
Tyrese Maxey: $2.5 million; restricted free agent in 2024
Shake Milton: $1.7 million; team option in 2022
Furkan Korkmaz: $1.8 million; unrestricted free agent in 2021
Isaiah Joe: $898,000; restricted free agent in 2023

Skooby · Dec 10, 2020

Jplaya2023 said:
Ranking the top 10 NBA players for 2020-21

The six AFC wild-card contenders vying for three spots: Barnwell on the Pats, Dolphins and more

Playoff rankings remain the same, but Ohio State will be the committee's toughest test yet

Ranking the top 10 NBA players for 2020-21

We are ranking the top NBA players for the 10th year.

Who will be the best players this season?

To get the final NBArank prediction, we asked our expert panel to vote on pairs of players: LeBron James vs. Giannis Antetokounmpo. Stephen Curry vs. James Harden. Zion Williamson vs. Ja Morant.

We asked, "Which player will be better in 2020-21?" Voters had to predict what they expected from each player in the 2020-21 regular season and postseason.

Here are the top 10 players, from No. 10 to No. 1 with text from ESPN's Kevin Pelton.

NBArank: 10 to 1

10. Nikola Jokic

Denver Nuggets | C

Previous rank: 7

2020-21 projected RPM: 4.3*

A sluggish start to the season was a distant memory when Jokic showed up trim for the seeding games and helped lead the Nuggets to their first conference finals since 2009. Along the way, Jokic showed how he helps his team in multiple ways. Against the Utah Jazz, who wanted to make him a scorer, Jokic averaged 26.3 points. That was down to 24.4 against the LA Clippers, but Jokic dominated the glass (13.4 rebounds) and averaged 6.6 assists. Though foul trouble limited Jokic against the eventual champion Lakers, he still made 58% of his 2-point attempts in an efficient series.

*Real plus-minus (RPM) is a player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions.

More: What sets Nikola Jokic apart from other superstars

9. James Harden

Houston Rockets | SG

Previous rank: 4

2020-21 projected RPM: 6.8

Harden tumbled five spots in the rankings after back-to-back top-four finishes, and it's tough to say how much that reflects his uncertain future in Houston after a short training-camp holdout and a trade request. During the regular season, there's no doubt Harden has been far more valuable than ninth in the league, finishing in the top three in MVP voting five of the past six seasons. Clearly, our panel put more weight on Harden's uneven postseason performances. Still, the Rockets will rightly expect a prime package of players and picks if and when they trade Harden.

More: Teams that can make real offers for Harden

8. Stephen Curry

Golden State Warriors | PG

Previous rank: 6

2020-21 projected RPM: 6.0

This is the lowest Curry has ranked since breaking out as a star in the 2013 postseason. The issue is availability, as a broken bone in Curry's right hand limited him to five games last season and he missed a combined 44 games the previous two campaigns. If he can stay healthy, we'll find out the floor for a Curry-led offense lacking a second plus scorer after Klay Thompson's Achilles injury ended his season before it began. Without Thompson and Kevin Durant, the Warriors will be more dependent on Curry for shot creation than ever before.

More: Curry relishes opportunity to start "at ground zero again"

7. Damian Lillard

Portland Trail Blazers | PG

Previous rank: 9

2020-21 projected RPM: 3.4

Lillard's scoring prowess salvaged what looked like a season lost to injuries for the Blazers. He put together one of the great stretches in NBA history in late January into February, averaging 48.8 points and 8.2 3-pointers per game on 57% shooting as Portland knocked off four playoff teams. Lillard was nearly as good in the bubble, winning Player of the Seeding Games for his 37.6 points and 9.6 assists as the Blazers claimed the eighth seed. With a healthier roster fortified this offseason, Portland hopes not to rely so heavily on Lillard again in 2020-21, but he has proved capable of carrying the load.

More: Lillard named NBA bubble MVP

6. Kevin Durant

Brooklyn Nets | PF

Previous rank: NR (injured)

2020-21 projected RPM: 2.4

Just how good Durant is 18 months after suffering an Achilles rupture during his final game with the Warriors is one of this season's swing questions. Players coming off the same injury have been noticeably less effective than projected upon their return, and KD was already likely to experience some decline in his early 30s. At the same time, when last we saw Durant fully healthy in the first two rounds of the 2019 playoffs, he was making a case as the league's most dominant individual force, and reports from players who have played with him during rehab have been encouraging.

More: Durant "ready for anything" in Nets' new smallball lineups

5. Kawhi Leonard

LA Clippers | SF

Previous rank: 2

2020-21 projected RPM: 4.1

Leonard's first season in Los Angeles (and the Orlando bubble) didn't have the same kind of storybook ending as 2019 in Toronto. The Clippers, trendy picks to win the title, were shocked in the second round after holding a 3-1 series lead on the Nuggets. Leonard was complicit, as he shot 6-of-22 in the deciding Game 7. Still, Leonard is primed to outperform his No. 5 ranking. He finished fifth in MVP voting despite his load -- whoops, injury -- management and finished second on a per-game basis in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric in the playoffs.

More: Leonard ready to "get back after it" following playoff loss

4. Luka Doncic

Dallas Mavericks | PG

Previous rank: 16

2020-21 projected RPM: 3.4

The next great superstar served notice to the league in his second season, becoming the youngest player ever to earn All-NBA First Team honors based on age as of opening night. Doncic impressed in his playoff debut versus the LA Clippers, knocking down a 28-foot, step-back winner in overtime and averaging 31.0 points, 9.8 rebounds and 8.7 assists in the six-game series. Next for Doncic: Leading the Mavs to a series win for the first time since their 2011 championship. Based on what we've seen from Doncic, that's a matter of when, not if.

More: How Luka compares to the all-time NBA greats

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Milwaukee Bucks | PF

Previous rank: 1

2020-21 projected RPM: 7.5

There's a reason much of the league spent this offseason hoarding cap space in preparation for Giannis' possible unrestricted free agency next summer. He has nothing left to prove in the regular season after winning back-to-back MVPs and Defensive Player of the Year before age 26, all while leading the Bucks to the NBA's best record in both seasons. Yet Giannis wasn't having the same impact against the Miami Heat in the playoffs before an ankle reinjury ended his series prematurely. To return to No. 1, Antetokounmpo must improve his scoring against defenses designed to keep him out of the paint.

Listen: "The Giannis Draft" on the Woj Pod

2. Anthony Davis

Los Angeles Lakers | PF

Previous rank: 5

2020-21 projected RPM: 4.0

For the first time in the 10-year history of NBArank, teammates finished 1-2. It's a testament to how well AD played in the Lakers' championship run that he created debate about who should win Finals MVP. It was Davis who hit the biggest shot of the playoffs, a 3-pointer to win Game 2 of the Western Conference finals. And the Lakers played better with Davis alone on the court in the postseason (plus-5.0 points per 100 possessions, via NBA Advanced Stats) than with LeBron James alone (plus-0.5) -- a reversal from the regular season.

More: What it took for Anthony Davis to get to this moment

1. LeBron James

Los Angeles Lakers | SF

Previous rank: 3

2020-21 projected RPM: 6.1

To quote "The Wire," "The King stay the King." After controversially relinquishing the No. 1 spot to Giannis in the wake of his injury-marred first season in Los Angeles, LeBron reclaimed the NBArank throne he has held nine of the past 10 years by winning his fourth title and Finals MVP at age 35. James continues to evolve, leading the league in assists while ceding some scoring to Davis. With the short turnaround before opening night, it's unlikely James will match last season's 67 (of 71) games played. Come playoff time, however, there's still nobody you'd rather start your team with than LeBron.

LeBron: Best thing about contract is potential future with son

ESPN Forecast polling conducted in coordination with Microsoft Research and The Wharton School.

Skooby · Dec 10, 2020

AFC wild-card race for the 2020 NFL playoffs: Favorite teams, scenarios to watch, and could the Patriots sneak in?

On Monday, we evaluated the wild-card situation in the NFC, where seven teams are competing for three spots in the 2020 NFL playoffs. After Washington upset the Steelers on Monday, you can realistically add an eighth team to that mix; there's a slim chance that the woebegone NFC East actually comes away with two playoff teams if the Giants and the Washington Football Team continue to stay hot.

the playoff picture, and the 4-8 Texans and Broncos have chances below 0.1% in the ESPN Football Power Index's simulations. The Bills, Steelers, Titans and Chiefs are atop their respective decisions, leaving six candidates for three wild-card spots. Let's run through their chances, what's going on with them, and what each team will need to do to make it into January:

Jump to a team:
BAL | CLE | IND
LV | MIA | NE

6. New England Patriots (6-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 13.1%

Since I wrote that the 2-5 start to the season for the Patriots might be the end of their dynasty, they've clawed their way back into the playoff picture. Bill Belichick's team has won four out of its past five games. While the 45-0 victory over the Chargers was a rout of monumental proportions, the three other victories came down to the final possession. The Pats were 0-3 in one-score games during the ugly start to the season; they're 3-1 in those games since.

What has changed? There's one extremely simple explanation: they've stopped turning the ball over on offense. During that 2-5 stretch, the Patriots had 15 turnovers in seven games, which was tied for the highest rate in football. Since then, Josh McDaniels' group has two turnovers in five games, the league's lowest rate over that time frame. They have gone from turning the ball over at least once in their first seven games to going turnover-free in four of their past five.

It also certainly seems as if Cam Newton's struggles after returning from the reserve/COVID-19 list were a short-term funk. The former first overall pick hasn't been a high-volume passer by any stretch of the imagination this season, but if you split his numbers from that three-game losing streak after returning from COVID-19 and compare them to what he has done over the rest of the season, he has been a different player:

Cam Newton's Splits In 2020
Split DEN, SF, BUF All Other Games
Cmp 41 149
Att 65 220
Cmp% 63.1% 67.7%
Yds 429 1,624
Y/Att 6.6 7.4
TD 0 5
INT 5 4
Fum 3 1
Rating 50.1 89.3
QBR 26.7 59.2

To keep up this winning streak, Newton might need to be the one carrying the team. The Patriots' defense just played its best game of the year in pitching a shutout against Justin Herbert, but the league's top defense from a year ago was ranked 31st in DVOA before that game against the Chargers. New England has basically been able to keep itself afloat with takeaways, as it has ended 16% of opposing drives with turnovers, the second-best mark in football. The Patriots rank seventh in points allowed, but that's a product of the offense producing slow, methodical drives; Belichick's defense has faced only 100 meaningful possessions, the fewest in the league and about 16 below the league average.

The Upshot's model has the Patriots as near-locks if they win out. Simple enough.

5. Miami Dolphins (8-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 40.9%

The Pats might have a difficult schedule ahead, but it doesn't compare to what the Dolphins have to do. FPI suggests that they have played the NFL's second-easiest slate so far, but they are projected to face the second-toughest schedule over the final four weeks of the season. In addition to the Patriots, Brian Flores' team will face the Chiefs, Raiders and Bills. FPI projects Miami to win 1.4 games the rest of the way, which is why its playoff chances aren't as promising as its record might seem.

If you look back through Miami's season and how it has done against the league's better teams, there might be more cause for concern. The Dolphins have feasted on subpar competition, going 5-0 against teams ranked in the bottom 10 of the league by FPI. They have only one win over a team with a winning record -- a blowout victory over the Rams -- and the 6-6 Cardinals would have qualified as a second such victory before losing this past week.

Unlike many of the other teams in this mix, the Dolphins are adding to the uncertainty by building around an inexperienced quarterback. I think they are smart to start evaluating rookie Tua Tagovailoa as early as possible, although the idea that they would consider drafting a quarterback in 2021 if he struggles seems more like interesting column fodder than a thing they would actually do.

The offense has been interesting with Tagovailoa in the lineup. The former Alabama star has been excellent at completing short passes, as his completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on throws within nine yards of the line of scrimmage is plus-6.4%, which is the best mark in the league for passers with at least 100 attempts. On anything deeper, Tagovailoa's CPOE is -0.7%. Jakeem Grant didn't help out his quarterback when he dropped what would have been a long touchdown pass last week, but Tagovailoa was also aided by impressive catches from Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker. The Dolphins have been able to get Tagovailoa going with play-action and run-pass option concepts, but they're still asking him to throw way too many fades and iso routes, especially in the red zone.

I don't think they are confident in their offensive line, and Flores' game management only adds to that belief. The former Patriots defensive coordinator has done brilliant work with the team this season, but despite possessing a significant analytics department, the Dolphins have been markedly conservative in short yardage. Heading into Week 13, they were the least aggressive fourth-down team in the league.

Bengals team that started a third-string quarterback and ranked 30th in defensive DVOA, the Dolphins kicked one field goal from the 1-yard line, another from the 5-yard line, and attempted a (awesome) fake field goal attempt from the 2-yard line, which was called back for a procedural penalty. It didn't matter against Cincinnati, but if Flores isn't willing to be aggressive against one of the league's worst teams, it could cost his team as it is about to play some of the league's best. Even if the Dolphins lose to the Chiefs on Sunday, a win over the Raiders and another victory over either the Bills or Patriots should get them in.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (7-5)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 49.7%

Speaking of those Raiders, their last-second win over the Jets led to a million takes and kept their playoff hopes in healthy shape. A loss to the league's worst team would have been catastrophic for the Raiders, who are already down the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Patriots. They peaked with odds of 73.2% after they beat the Broncos in Week 10 to get to 6-3, but what looked to be a three-game losing streak would have dropped them below New England and probably required them to win out.

As it is now, though, Las Vegas has three of its final four games at home. If it can hold its own in divisional games where it will be favored against the Chargers and Broncos, Jon Gruden's team should be able to make it to the playoffs with a split against the Colts and Dolphins. The Raiders should be able to handle their AFC West brethren, but then again, they needed a last-second miracle to beat the Jets.

Even given that they came back and won, the Jets game was a reminder of how thin this offense's margin for error is on a week-to-week basis. The Raiders forced three takeaways for only the fourth time in Gruden's three seasons at the helm. Without those takeaways, they typically need to protect the football, because they're toast if they lose the turnover battle. Since the start of 2018, they are one of only two teams to go winless when they have a negative turnover margin at 0-17. They're 18-9 when they tie or win on takeaways. Every team is better in those situations, but the Raiders are an extreme example.

There are also reasons to be concerned that the offense's impressive start to the season might be difficult to sustain. Offenses that struggle on first and second down but are excellent on third down have a habit of fading in larger samples, and that fits the Raiders. Gruden's offense is 25th in the league in offensive EPA per play on first and second down, only to then morph into the Chiefs and become the league's best offense by EPA on third down. They do face the league's second-shortest third downs on average, but the team just ahead of them is the Dolphins, who convert 37.3% of the time. Vegas is picking up 48.7% of their third downs, the third-highest mark in football.

Skooby · Dec 10, 2020

3. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 61.4%

The Colts trail only the 8-4 Titans in the AFC South by virtue of their divisional record; the two teams split their head-to-head games, but Tennessee is otherwise 2-0 in the South, and the Colts beat the Texans on Sunday but blew a fourth-quarter lead against the Jaguars all the way back in Week 1. Each team has a game left against both the Texans and Jags, but unless they can pick up an extra win the rest of the way, the Colts will lose the division by virtue of handing Jacksonville what is currently their only victory of the campaign.

Blowing a late lead in Week 1 and throwing a fourth-quarter interception led some (OK, me) to worry that the Colts had adopted the Chargers' knack of losing close games after acquiring Philip Rivers, but that hasn't really been the case. Indy hasn't blown a late lead across the rest of the season, and Rivers' interception rate has fallen from 3.4% to 2.1%. Coach Frank Reich has the veteran quarterback completing more than 68% of his passes, in part because he is making safer throws.

Rivers' average pass traveled 8.5 yards in the air a year ago, but with a heavy dosage of throws to his backs, he is averaging 6.9 air yards per pass this season. Unsurprisingly, given the move from one of the league's worst offensive lines to one of its best, his sack rate and pressure rate are down dramatically. Rivers, who is dealing with a toe injury, has been hit on just 5.6% of his dropbacks, good for the second-lowest rate in the league behind Ben Roethlisberger. That should help come January.

My biggest concern right now with the Colts is with two key contributors on either side of the line of scrimmage. Star left tackle Anthony Castonzo left the Week 12 loss to the Titans because of a knee injury and didn't play against the Texans; in a small sample, Rivers' QBR has dropped 20 points without his blindside protector, from 68.3 on 334 snaps with Castonzo to 48.3 without him.

Likewise, the Colts weren't the same on defense when DeForest Buckner missed the Titans game because he was on the reserve/COVID-19 list. They gave up a season-high 45 points, with Derrick Henry running for 178 yards and three touchdowns. Buckner is back and healthy, but I'm always going to be worried about a defense that seems as dependent on a pair of stars as they are on Buckner and Darius Leonard. With both Buckner and Leonard on the field this season, Indy has given up a QBR of 28.0. In 187 dropbacks without either Buckner or Leonard on the field, that number rises to 76.6.

the Upshot's model suggests Indy has an 83% chance of making it to the postseason. The Colts still have to play the Steelers, but the effectiveness of their offensive line and their pass defense makes me think that Indy might have a good shot at upsetting the Steelers. Even if they lose, wins over the Raiders and Jaguars probably would be enough to get them into the postseason for the second time in three years.

2. Baltimore Ravens (7-5)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 67.5%

The Ravens finally brought a halt to their three-game losing streak by beating the Cowboys on Tuesday night, and while there has been talk about how John Harbaugh's team had been underachieving before that game, it had really just been going up against a tough schedule. After starting 6-2, Baltimore went 1-4 against teams that are a combined 46-16 this season. (That figure counts the Steelers' 11-1 record twice, since Baltimore played Pittsburgh twice over that span.)

Good news for Ravens fans: things are getting easier. After beating the 3-9 Cowboys, they will have a tougher matchup against the surging 9-3 Browns on Monday night. After that, though, they finish with the Jaguars, Giants and Bengals, three teams that are a combined 8-27-1. The Upshot's model isn't as sanguine about Baltimore's chances as FPI, but even if it loses to the Browns, the Upshot predicts it would still have a 50/50 shot to make the postseason by sweeping those three final games.

Of course, the offense has fallen off from a year ago. The Lamar Jackson-led attack, which was No. 1 in DVOA a year ago, has fallen to 21st. I would argue that the extent of the drop was unexpected, but it shouldn't be a surprise to see the Ravens lose a Hall of Fame guard in Marshal Yanda to retirement and later their lead blocking tight end in Nick Boyle to injury and subsequently not be as effective at running the football. As we saw Tuesday against a hapless Cowboys rush defense, the concepts that torched the league in 2019 should still be effective. The Ravens just aren't executing them as effectively.

Likewise, while Jackson's 9% touchdown rate was never going to reoccur, we could have expected more out of both the reigning MVP and his receivers. His weapons have dropped 4.8% of his targets this season, the fifth-highest rate in the league. That's lower than Ben Roethlisberger's drop rate, but Jackson's drops have been more damaging. He has the highest drop rate in the league on passes traveling 10 or more yards in the air, at 6.4%. Mark Andrews has taken a step back, and 2019 first-round pick Marquise Brown hasn't taken the step forward many expected.

1. Cleveland Browns (9-3)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 86.4%

Browns fans, you can almost exhale. At 9-3, your team is virtually all of the way there. Beating the Ravens on Monday night would all but lock the Browns into a wild-card spot; it would take three straight losses and about a dozen other games not going their way to keep them out at 10-6. Likewise, even if the Browns lose to the Ravens, a sweep of the Giants and Jets on a two-game New York road trip would lock them in. They would still have a 5% chance or so if they lose out.

Advanced metrics aren't as excited about Cleveland. It is 23rd in DVOA and 20th by FPI. It has a point differential of minus-15, something we would typically associate with a team that would have 5.7 wins now, not nine. Those wins are banked, and Browns fans might not care about the advanced metrics, but they suggest that the team isn't anywhere near as good as its record indicates.

Look a little closer at their record. Sunday's victory over the Titans was unquestionably impressive, but it's not indicative of their typical wins. The Browns are 3-0 against the NFC East. They're 2-0 against the Bengals. They beat the Jaguars and Texans by a combined five points. They have two wins by more than a touchdown against meaningful competition; a nine-point win over the Colts in which they kicked a field goal in the final minute to put away the game, and Sunday's blowout win over Tennessee, which admittedly was much more impressive than the final score indicated.

The Browns' three losses, on the other hand, are all to possible playoff teams by significant margins. They lost by 10 points to the Raiders, by 32 to the Ravens and by 31 to the Steelers. In those three games, Baker Mayfield completed 52.4% of his passes, averaged 5.2 yards per attempt and posted a QBR of 30.0. Mayfield's stunning game against the Titans on Sunday was a positive data point, but the Titans' pass defense is a mess; Tennessee came in to the game ranking 31st against play-action passes by QBR and pressured Mayfield on just 3.0% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest rate for any quarterback in any game this season.

All of this leads to Monday's game with the Ravens, which will be the best measure of where the Browns are right now. They will be at home against a team that is likely to pressure their starting quarterback. The Ravens have the fourth-best rush defense DVOA in football, meaning that more of the load is likely to fall on Mayfield. Last season, under the weight of legitimate expectations, Mayfield and the Browns collapsed.

Now, on the verge of the playoffs and after the most impressive victory of the Mayfield era, the expectations are back. They might end up favored against their archrivals when the Ravens have their starting quarterback for the first time since 2008. Browns fans think that it's time to get on the Cleveland bandwagon. If they can deliver a repeat performance of what we saw from them against the Titans last week against another playoff-caliber team this Monday, I'll be more inclined to hop on.

Skooby · Dec 10, 2020

College Football Playoff rankings reaction: More of the same for now, but Ohio State will shake things up

Editor's note: This story was published Tuesday night, before it was reported the Big Ten is expected to change its minimum games requirement to allow Ohio State to play for the conference championship. It has been updated.

The College Football Playoff selection committee's top four has been the most confounding combination of boring and wildly uncertain, and it's all because of No. 4 Ohio State.

Once again, nothing changed in the committee's top six -- and yet it's all written in pencil as the Buckeyes' story continues to unfold by the hour, the coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the sport and the conference championship games the weekend of Dec. 18-19 can rearrange it all.

On Wednesday, ESPN reported that the Big Ten is expected to change its minimum games requirement, paving the way for Ohio State to play Northwestern in the conference championship game. This comes on the heels of the Buckeyes' matchup with Michigan getting canceled. Indiana, which would have represented the East instead of the Buckeyes, announced on Wednesday evening that the team was pausing practices because of COVID-19 issues within the program. Purdue, which is supposed to play Indiana on Saturday, also paused team activities Tuesday as it waits on COVID-19 results.

Within a span of hours on Tuesday, Michigan, Purdue and Indiana all came to a screeching halt -- headlines that overshadowed Tuesday's rankings, the third of five from the committee. The rankings were mostly more of the same, though two-loss Iowa State jumped up to No. 7 ahead of undefeated No. 8 Cincinnati, making the Bearcats' long-shot playoff bid even longer. With Coastal Carolina ranked No. 13 following its win against BYU, the Chanticleers aren't even in New Year's Six Bowl range yet.

And so the spotlight remains on No. 4 Ohio State -- and the 13 people who are tasked with judging the Buckeyes.

This is exactly why the playoff chose humans, not computers, to figure it all out. Even during a "normal" season, college football schedules are unequal from conference to conference and often even within divisions. This year, of course, has presented challenges unlike any other.

"I'm not afraid to tell you that the differential in numbers of games played is a variable that I hope this is the only year ever has to be considered," selection committee chair Gary Barta said last week.

This is why they said they needed to get on planes during a pandemic and fly to Grapevine, Texas, take an antigen test on Monday mornings, sit 6 feet away from one another and debate who the four best teams are while wearing masks. Their job, as it is written in the committee protocol, is to select the best teams -- not the teams that played the most games, the teams that had the fewest positive test results or the teams that started play in September.

And Ohio State -- whether it plays five, six or seven games -- might be one of them.

The conference championship games play an integral role in the committee's final ranking because those titles are one of the tiebreakers they use when judging comparable teams, but it's only one part of the equation. Now, it will be much easier for the committee to explain Ohio State with a Big Ten title at No.4 than it would a 6-0 Buckeyes team without one. There are no marquee nonconference games to help compensate for the lack of a championship game this year -- no win against Oregon or Oklahoma.

That matters, but how much if Ohio State looks the part?

This often maddening and always subjective system is just what college football needs this year -- expert eyes to determine who should be in the semifinals, regardless of unbalanced résumés. So far, that has been clear, and the committee hasn't needed any conference championships to determine it.

"You still have wins and losses," Barta said last week. "You still have teams against who they compete. You can look at the strength of the teams they play against. The final piece of that puzzle, you alluded to it, is you watch every one of those games and you just determine who has the better team to the best of your ability."

So even if Ohio State can't find a conference opponent to replace Michigan on Saturday, it is still in line to secure a crucial conference title on Dec. 19.

If they don't, Ohio State would have one more opportunity to impress the committee on Champions Week, when every team in the Big Ten (that is healthy enough) will play one additional conference game. That scenario would make the fourth spot a more difficult choice, especially if Clemson beats Notre Dame in the ACC championship game, and Florida beats Alabama in the SEC championship game.

Things could be straightforward if Alabama and Notre Dame win their conference title games, knocking Florida and Clemson, respectively, out of the mix. But if one of them loses, the Buckeyes will be firmly in the discussion, along with No. 5 Texas A&M, which is currently 7-1 and had its game Saturday against Ole Miss canceled. The so-called "eye test" means more than ever this year.

"The good news is, it's not one person's eyes, it's 13 sets of eyes," Barta said. "People have varying degrees of football expertise. It's not just one person's opinion. It's 13 opinions of people who know a lot and have spent a lot of time around the game of football. We get feedback from everybody. It's pretty comprehensive."

It has to be. Because the schedules this year are anything but.

Flight · Dec 11, 2020

Scouting NBA draft lottery prospects: Strengths, comps, intel

Derek Lee · Dec 11, 2020

Flight said:
Scouting NBA draft lottery prospects: Strengths, comps, intel

Scouting 2021 NBA draft lottery prospects: Strengths, comps, intel

Jonathan Givony
Mike Schmitz

Who are the best prospects in the 2021 NBA draft?

This class features plenty of star power at the top, including Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham, USC's Evan Mobley, the G League's Jalen Green and more intriguing prospects.

ESPN draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz provide full scouting reports of the 14 projected lottery picks in our new top 100 rankings, including strengths, improvement areas, physical comparisons and projected NBA roles.

Note: Physical comps are based on players' measurements at similar ages.

Cade Cunningham | G | Oklahoma State | Age: 19.2
AP Photo/Mitch Alcala
Cunningham was considered a versatile forward early in his career. He took off as a prospect after being asked to play point guard as a junior at Montverde Academy, establishing himself as one of the best players in the class going up against top competition at the prep, AAU and FIBA levels. -- Givony

Strengths

Has excellent size for a point guard. Listed at 6-foot-8, 220 pounds with a wingspan that exceeds 7 feet. Fluid athlete who plays at different speeds, passes and handles with both hands and plays a selfless style. Can bully smaller guards in the post. Difficult for bigger defenders to handle due to his shot-creation skill.
Outstanding physical tools defensively that allow him to cover guards, wings and bigs. Has excellent timing, feel and intensity. Likes to crash the glass aggressively and ignite the break on his own. Competitive and attentive off the ball.
Much improved shooter who confidently knocks down pull-up jumpers from midrange and 3. Excellent free throw shooter. Shows soft touch around the basket.

Improvement areas

Lacks a degree of explosiveness beating defenders from a standstill. Relies more on size and strength to get by opponents in the half court.
Struggles to score over length in traffic at times. Can he be efficient creating offense as a No. 1 option?
Plays for an Oklahoma State team that lacks much perimeter shooting and creation. Opponents are aggressive with double-teams intended to get the ball out of his hands. May not be able to show the full extent of his arsenal operating out of pick-and-roll.

Projected role: Big playmaker

Physical Comps
PLAYER HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
Cade Cunningham 6-8 220 7-1
Luol Deng 6-8 220 7-0½
Richard Jefferson 6-8½ 223 7-0
Kyle Anderson 6-8½ 230 7-2¾

Evan Mobley | C | USC | Age: 19.4
Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire
Mobley has been regarded as a potential No. 1 pick for the better part of two years thanks to his tremendous combination of tools and skill. He really caught our eye in camp settings and while playing a point-center role with Rancho Christian High School, blocking everything around the rim, handling in transition and facilitating. He ultimately ended up as the No. 2 high school player in his class behind Cade Cunningham. -- Schmitz

Strengths

Ideal physical profile for a modern big man. Outstanding coordination for his size. Quick off his feet. Explosive leaper in space. Finishes above the rim with ease. Lob threat. Tools make him a factor on the offensive glass.

Elite rim protector with great timing and a 7-4 wingspan. Rotates well from the weak side. Can step out and switch onto guards. Sound pick-and-roll defender who should be a major asset on the defensive end of the floor.

Modern skill set. Great hands. Has the touch and mechanics to knock down NBA 3s with regularity in time. Comfortable in midrange spots. Smooth handle and excellent passer with either hand. Should be able to play next to another center in certain lineups.

Improvement areas

Not a physical defensive rebounder. High center of gravity. Gets wedged out of position by stronger bigs.

Looks as if he's coasting at times. Incredible talent who leaves you wanting more for stretches.

Can he ever be a No. 1 or No. 2 scoring option on a great team? Doesn't have many ways to go get himself a bucket in the half court at this stage

Projected role: Franchise center

Physical Comps
PLAYER HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
Evan Mobley 7-0 215 7-4
Chris Bosh 6-11½ 225 7-3½
Anthony Davis 6-10½ 222 7-5½
Christian Wood 6-10½ 216 6-11¼

Jalen Green | G | G League Ignite | Age: 18.8
AP Photo/Gregory Payan
Green was identified as a top-shelf prospect early, being invited to try out for USA Basketball as a high school freshman. He went on to win three gold medals, tied for the most ever at the junior level, and was named MVP of the FIBA U17 World Cup. Green decided to become the first player to join the G League's Ignite program, turning down offers from Memphis, Auburn and others. -- Givony

Strengths

Shifty, explosive guard. Has a rare extra gear changing speeds in the open court. Doesn't have glaring holes in his game that can't be fixed with added experience and polish.

Strong finisher with long strides, tremendous body control and nice creativity finishing around the rim with touch. Excellent scoring instincts. Has shown toughness and control in several high-profile settings.

Much improved perimeter shooter who shows glimpses of impressive shot-making prowess pulling up off the dribble with deep range.

Improvement areas

Isn't the biggest shooting guard around at 6-5 with a lean frame. Doesn't possess great length to compensate.

Plays an iso-heavy style that isn't always efficient. Relies heavily on his pull-up game, which can be streaky at times. Shows flashes as a creator but will need to prove he also makes others better, particularly operating with his left hand.

Defensive intensity fluctuated at the high school level. Gambles for steals. Doesn't always get over screens.

Projected role: Creating combo guard

Physical Comps
PLAYER HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
Jalen Green 6-5 185 6-8
Jordan Clarkson 6-5 186 6-8
Zach LaVine 6-5¾ 181 6-8¼
Malik Beasley 6-4½ 190 6-7

Jalen Suggs | G | Gonzaga | Age: 19.5
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Suggs was a prolific prep athlete, winning Minnesota Player of the Year in both basketball and football. Playing on the UnderArmour circuit for AAU and usually filling more of a complementary role during his 18 USA Basketball games, Suggs wasn't often the focal point of an offense until he got to Gonzaga, so it wasn't as easy to project him as a top-five pick. But Suggs has shown he has franchise point guard potential, backing up his stellar prep career and drawing rave reviews from NBA scouts. -- Schmitz

Strengths

Nice size for a lead guard at 6-4. Strong, compact frame. Powerful athlete. Finishes above the rim in space, especially off of two feet. Great body control. Embraces contact. Downhill driver who can change speeds. Great in transition. Active cutter who can play on or off the ball.

Mature decision-maker on the court with a great feel for the game. Unselfish hit-aheads in transition. Poised pick-and-roll passer who uses both sides of the floor. Rewards cutters and makes the extra pass to shooters. Takes care of the ball at a high level.

Tough defender who wants to defend the other team's best player. Great feet on the ball, dialed in off the ball. Excellent anticipation in the passing lanes. Will mix it up for rebounds.

Improvement areas

Streaky shooter. Sound mechanics and good balance but a career 27% from 3 on 190 attempts, according to our database. Nothing to suggest he won't become a reliable shooter, but the results just aren't there yet.

Not the most nuanced finisher. Relies more on power and two-foot explosiveness than finesse. Would benefit from adding a more reliable floater and additional deception around the rim.

Average length relative to his height.

Projected role: Franchise point guard

Physical Comps
PLAYER HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
Jalen Suggs 6-4 205 6-5½
Gary Harris 6-4½ 205 6-6¾
Jrue Holiday 6-4¼ 199 6-7
Donte DiVincenzo 6-4½ 201 6-6

Jalen Johnson | F | Duke | Age: 18.9
play
0:17
Jalen Johnson stuffs Kofi Cockburn at the rim
Duke's Jalen Johnson meets Kofi Cockburn at the basket and denies him of the would-be layup.

Johnson emerged as a top-10 recruit with his play on the 2019 Nike EYBL circuit. Despite never playing in a USA Basketball event outside of minicamps, Johnson finished as the RSCI No. 10 recruit in his class and committed to Duke, where his versatility has stood out early in his collegiate career. -- Schmitz

Strengths

Impressive combination of strength and explosiveness at 6-9, 220 pounds. Strong lower body. Plays with physicality.

Extremely versatile defender. Can shift anywhere from 1 to 5 in a pinch. Good instincts off the ball. Rotates for blocks and charges. Aggressive rebounder on both ends.

At his best pushing in the open court. Fluid ball handler for his size and crafty passer. Excellent straight-line driver who can change speeds.

Improvement areas

Rigid shooting stroke. Long release with mixed results. Doesn't have many ways to score in the half court outside of energy plays.

A bit predictable as a shot creator. Likes to catch, jab right, drive left. A little too turnover prone for a playmaker.

Not overly long relative to his height. Does he have enough offensive game to ever be more than a third or fourth option on a playoff team?

Projected role: Two-way combo forward

Physical Comps
PLAYER HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
Jalen Johnson 6-9 220 6-11
Aaron Gordon 6-9½ 225 7-3½
Tobias Harris 6-7¾ 223 6-11
Deni Avdija 6-10 225 6-10

Brandon Boston Jr. | G | Kentucky | Age: 19.0
Ziaire Williams and Bronny James. -- Givony

Strengths

Good dimensions for the wing at 6-7 with a near 7-foot wingspan. Fluid athlete who is at a very early stage of development physically.

Creative scorer who plays at different speeds smoothly. Has excellent body control, polished footwork, long strides and a natural pace operating out of pick-and-roll. Shows flashes of shot-making potential pulling up off step-backs and passing off a live dribble.

Physically weak but shows some toughness crashing the glass and getting in passing lanes.

Improvement areas

Weighs only 185 pounds. Has been slow to add bulk to his frame.

Has struggled to adapt to the physicality of the college game early, especially finishing in traffic and defending. Gambles excessively. Intensity comes and goes.

Still working on fine-tuning his ballhandling to create high-percentage looks around the rim. Lives off tough shots in the midrange. Deep ball hasn't fallen early in his college career. Has a tendency to hunt difficult attempts off isolation moves. Can be a reluctant passer at times.

Projected role: Shot-maker and secondary creator

Physical Comps
PLAYER HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
Brandon Boston 6-7 185 7-0
Justin Holiday 6-7 177 7-0½
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 6-6 180 6-11½
Caris LeVert 6-7 191 6-10

Derek Lee · Dec 11, 2020

Ziaire Williams | G/F | Stanford | Age: 19.2
Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire
Williams is a late-blooming prospect who missed the majority of his sophomore season due to injury and played for an unsponsored AAU program during the summer of 2018. He eventually impressed on the Nike EYBL Circuit and was named to the 2019 Team USA Under-19 squad. Williams opted to spend his senior season playing for high school powerhouse Sierra Canyon. -- Schmitz

Strengths

Tall, fluid wing at 6-8 with a 6-10½ wingspan. Big reach. Light on his feet. Can finish above the rim in space. Changes speeds and directions comfortably.

Shows major shotmaking potential both off the catch and the bounce. Has the footwork to rise into pull-ups smoothly and can create space with step backs. Comfortable ball handler with great balance who can play pick-and-roll. Handle and shotmaking potential give him quite a bit of upside as a creator. Willing passer with strong court vision.

Strong off-ball defender who has good instincts in the passing lanes. Will rotate for blocks or charges.

Improvement areas

Rail thin at 185 pounds with narrow shoulders. How much will he fill out long term? Lack of strength limits him defensively and as a finisher. Toughness comes and goes in part because of his lack of physicality. Gets pushed around at times and caught on screens defensively.

Still finding the right balance between when to be aggressive and when to facilitate. Settles for contested jump shots far too often. Doesn't get to the free throw line. Needs to do a better job getting downhill. Will go long stretches without having much of an offensive impact and then take an out-of-rhythm jumper.

Relatively streaky shooter given his reliance on shotmaking. Confidence in his shooting comes and goes.

Projected role: Wing shot creator

Physical Comps
PLAYER HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
Ziaire Williams 6-8 185 6-10½
Shaun Livingston 6-7½ 186 6-11
Caris LeVert 6-7 191 6-10
Josh Jackson 6-8¾ 203 6-9¾

Keon Johnson | G | Tennessee | Age: 18.7
Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
A shortstop growing up, Johnson was a late-blooming basketball prospect who didn't fully emerge as a top-notch recruit until the spring prior to his senior year on the Adidas AAU circuit. That earned him an invite to USA Basketball, where he showed he's a five-star-caliber prospect. A knee injury knocked him out for six months during his senior year of high school, but not before several eye-popping showings confirmed his status as a top NBA prospect. -- Givony

Strengths

One of the best athletes in college basketball. Powerful first step in the open court. Explosive accelerating from a standstill and getting off his feet for dunks and blocks. Frame is at an early stage of development but should fill out in time.

Aggressive, competitive prospect who maximizes his tools on both ends of the floor. Versatile defender who can stay in front of guards and wings. At his best sliding his feet and containing the point of attack. Generates plenty of turnovers with his instincts, quickness and activity level.

Shows flashes of playmaking, shot-making and feel for the game that indicate he has significant room for growth.

Improvement areas

At an early stage of development offensively. Lacks experience and polish in the half court. Ballhandling, decision-making are a work in progress.

Frame is on the leaner side; he weighs 186 pounds. Will need to add bulk to be able to play through contact on both ends of the floor.

Pull-up jumper is slow and lacks accuracy under duress. Struggled from the free throw line earlier in his career.

Projected role: Two-way wing

Physical Comps
PLAYER HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
Keon Johnson 6-5 186 6-8
Zach LaVine 6-5¾ 181 6-8¼
Malik Beasley 6-4½ 190 6-7
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 6-5½ 204 6-8

Jonathan Kuminga | F | G League Ignite | Age: 18.1
Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire
Born in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kuminga followed his older brother, former Texas Tech player Joel Ntambwe, to the United States in 2016. He bounced around four high schools in four states before ultimately electing to skip his senior year and reclassify, making him eligible for the 2021 draft. He ended up committing to the G League Ignite program, forgoing offers from Auburn, Texas Tech and others. -- Givony

Strengths

Has an ideal physical profile for a combo forward at 6-8, 225 pounds with a 7-foot wingspan. Possesses an outstanding frame and is explosive in the open court with an impressive combination of strength, quickness and fluidity.

Shows intriguing shot-making prowess, making 42 3-pointers in 19 Nike EYBL games. Has smooth mechanics and looks capable of making jumpers in a variety of ways, including off the dribble and even running off screens at times.

Has excellent defensive potential when engaged. Strong enough to defend big men but has quick-enough feet to stay in front of guards.

Improvement areas

Feel, decision-making and overall polish are works in progress. Not an efficient offensive player. Settles for the first shot he can find. Drives with his head down. Not the easiest teammate to play with. Needs to show he can impact winning when his pull-up jumper isn't falling.

Has tools and versatility but is a below-average defender at this stage. Competitiveness and intensity fluctuate. Relies too heavily on his length and athleticism. Technique off the ball leaves a lot to be desired. Has a tendency to stand around and gamble in passing lanes or bite wildly on fakes.

Has some questions to answer about his approach to the game. Body language leaves something to be desired, and he hasn't gotten much high-level coaching. Didn't show a great deal of progress with his feel for the game in his final year of high school.

Projected role: Two-way forward

Physical Comps
PLAYER HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
Jonathan Kuminga 6-8 225 7-0
Richard Jefferson 6-8½ 223 7-0
Josh Smith 6-8¼ 221 7-0
Harrison Barnes 6-8 228 6-11¼

James Bouknight | G | UConn | Age: 20.2
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Bouknight turned in a solid prep career but a torn meniscus late in his junior season, along with inconsistent production, stalled some of his recruiting momentum. He eventually teamed up with prep star Cole Anthony for the AAU powerhouse PSA Cardinals and signed with UConn, where he turned in an all-freshman campaign in the AAC last season thanks to his microwave scoring. Bouknight generated interest among NBA front offices with his play but opted not to test the waters. Now he is looking like a potential lottery pick thanks to his shotmaking ability and tremendous scoring instincts. -- Schmitz

Strengths

Nice size and length for a scoring guard at 6-5. Good, shifty open-court athlete. Plays above the rim with relative ease. Has the feet and length to be a plus defender in time, especially against point guards. Good positional rebounder. Shows you glimpses defensively.

One of the best scorers in the country. Smooth with the ball in his hands. Changes speeds and directions impressively. Shotmaker who can get to his pull-up out of a variety of different moves. Elite hesitation move going left.

Creative finisher. Uses deception really well in the paint. Can finish off of either foot with either hand and has a floater game.

Improvement areas

Had a tendency to fade in and out of games in the past, on both ends of the floor. Jump shot is on the streaky side. Defensive impact fluctuates.

Better shooter off the dribble than off the catch at this stage of his career. Can improve his ability to add value off the ball. How does he fit alongside other ball dominant shot creators?

Shows glimpses as a facilitator but has more turnovers than assists during his career. Can he develop into more of a lead guard or is he better off as a bucket-getter?

Projected role: Scoring guard

Physical Comps
PLAYER HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
James Bouknight 6-5 190 N/A
Derrick White 6-4½ 190 6-7½
Jordan Clarkson 6-5 186 6-8
Bradley Beal 6-4¾ 202 6-8

David Johnson | G | Louisville | Age: 19.7
Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
Johnson earned invites to USA Basketball camps as a 16-year-old but never really rose in the recruiting rankings. He tore his left labrum in July going into his freshman college season, causing him to miss considerable time. Once Johnson started to get into a rhythm again, he emphatically introduced himself to NBA scouts with a 19-point, 7-assist showing at Duke, looking like a future lottery pick. Johnson opted not to test the waters last season and is off to a strong start as a sophomore, making strides as a perimeter shooter and shining in a premier role. -- Schmitz

Strengths

Great size for a lead guard at 6-5, 210 pounds with long arms. A smooth athlete who can change speeds, play with physicality and get above the rim. Good in transition. Length and creativity allow him to finish from different angles. Uses his size to get to his spots. Likes to play out of the post. Comfortable shooting over smaller guards.

Creative passer who can whip the ball all around the floor with his right hand. Strong ball handler. Wants to get his teammates involved. Comfortable in pick-and roll. Capable lob passer who also finds shooters on the move.

Tools give him potential on the defensive end. Plays with energy and toughness for stretches. Uses his length effectively to contest jump shooters. Active off the ball. Good rebounder.

Improvement areas

Doesn't have the most fluid shooting stroke, despite recent improvement. Turns down catch-and-shoot 3s. Confidence seems to fluctuate from beyond the arc.

Right-hand dominant as a driver, passer and finisher. A little bit loose as a decision-maker at times. Not afraid to take risks but can do a better job of taking care of the ball.

Defensive discipline fluctuates and he can be a bit foul prone.

Projected role: Big playmaker

Physical Comps
PLAYER HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
David Johnson 6-4½ 199 6-9½
Markelle Fultz 6-4¾ 186 6-9
Bruce Brown 6-5 195 6-9
Emmanuel Mudiay 6-5 200 6-8½

Isaiah Jackson | C | Kentucky | Age: 18.9
Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire
Standing smaller than 6-8 and 178 pounds as a 16-year old, Jackson took a while to come into his own physically, playing at four different high schools. He made a name for himself on the Nike EYBL circuit, using that as a springboard to USA Basketball invites and national recognition as a top-ranked recruit, ultimately picking Kentucky over Syracuse and Alabama. -- Givony

Strengths

Elite physical profile at 6-11 with a 9-5 standing reach. One of the best athletes in the college game in terms of his ability to run the floor and get off his feet quickly for dunks and blocks. Covers ground exceptionally well thanks to his coordination and agility.

Difference-maker defensively thanks to the elite timing he displays as a rim protector. Also an excellent rebounder.

Shows significant flashes offensively with his ability to handle, pass and shoot the ball. Still at a very early stage offensively but has good hands, soft touch and upside.

Improvement areas

Weighed just 206 pounds at the Kentucky pro day. Lack of strength, especially in the lower body, can get taken advantage of on both ends of the floor.

Does incredible things defensively but isn't consistent enough with his fundamentals or approach. Falls asleep at times. Needs to improve his technique and maintain his intensity level off the ball. Struggles to defend perimeter players in space.

Not a prolific or efficient scorer at this stage. Can be mistake-prone, as his decision-making is a work in progress. Doesn't always know his limitations.

Projected role: Rim-protecting, vertical-spacing center

Physical Comps
PLAYER HEIGHT WEIGHT REACH
Isaiah Jackson 6-11 206 9-5
Nerlens Noel 6-11¾ 206 9-2
Hassan Whiteside 6-11½ 227 9-5
Mo Bamba 7-1 226 9-7

Derek Lee · Dec 11, 2020

Scottie Barnes | F | FSU | Age: 19.3

play
0:37
Scottie Barnes wins it for FSU in OT
Florida State's Scottie Barnes sinks a difficult jumper with 1.8 seconds left in overtime to win it for Florida State over Indiana, 69-67.

Barnes has been on the NBA radar since he was 15 as a regular at USA Basketball camps and a standout at the high school and AAU levels, bringing a consistent history of winning. He is a tough, competitive player , fitting the same prospect mold that Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton has had success morphing into lottery picks in the past. -- Schmitz

Strengths

Excellent size and length for a modern forward at 6-8 with a 7-2 wingspan and a strong frame. Has the tools to slide up and play some small-ball center in a pinch.
High motor defender who can defend 1 through 5 at the collegiate level. Regularly picks up point guards in the back court. Good technique on the ball. Crowds opposing guards and takes them out of their offense. Can switch every screen onto bigs. Active off-ball defender.
Mismatch facilitator with a great feel for the game. Plays point guard for FSU. Unselfish moving the ball ahead in transition. Comfortable ball handler. Fills in the gaps on offense. Keeps plays alive on the offensive glass.

Improvement areas

Unnatural shooting stroke with unproven results. Lack of floor spacing makes him a tough fit on the offensive end of the floor. Needs shooters around him at all times to make him most effective.
Limited all-around scorer in the half court. Doesn't have great touch or much to go to in his scoring arsenal.
Mobile for his size but lacking a degree of quickness and burst off the dribble. Plays below the rim in the half court. Not much of a leaper. Elite collegiate defender, but will he have the foot speed to lock up elite NBA wings?

Projected role: Two-way point forward

Physical Comps
PLAYER HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
Scottie Barnes 6-8 225 7-2
OG Anunoby 6-7¾ 232 7-2¼
Tristan Thompson 6-8¾ 227 7-1¼
Kyle Anderson 6-8½ 230 7-2¾

Daishen Nix | G | G League Ignite | Age: 18.8
Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire
Born and raised in Alaska, Nix moved to Las Vegas prior to his freshman year of high school. He sprouted up 5 inches, trimmed his stocky frame and grew his national profile despite playing for nonaffiliated high school and AAU programs. After initially signing a letter of intent to play at UCLA, Nix made a late decision to decommit and join the G League Ignite program. -- Givony

Strengths

Good size for a point guard at 6-5 with a strong 215-pound frame. Fluid ball handler who operates at different speeds well. Has outstanding body control and pace. Can power through defenders with his strong frame, using long strides, polished footwork and impressive creativity as a finisher.
Excellent passer who empowers teammates. Has good court vision seeing over the top of defenses and making advanced passes out of pick-and-roll. Can thread the needle through tight windows on the move with either hand.
Shows impressive instincts defensively and on the glass. Gets in passing lanes frequently. Game comes very easily for him on both ends of the floor. Has some toughness and is not afraid to play through contact.

Improvement areas

Not the most explosive athlete in terms of burst or leaping ability. Isn't always able to create separation from defenders using his first step. Relies heavily on touch and craft inside the arc.
Perimeter shooting has been streaky throughout his career. Relies heavily on pull-up jumpers due to his average athleticism but has been inconsistent with the results.
Has always been the focal point of the offense against mostly low-level competition. Struggles to play off the ball. Casual with his on-court demeanor and approach to the game. NBA teams have gotten little exposure to him outside of one poor showing at a Nike Hoop Summit scrimmage. Has a lot to prove with the G League venture.

Projected role: Big playmaker

Physical Comps
PLAYER HEIGHT WEIGHT WINGSPAN
Daishen Nix 6-5 215 6-4
Matthew Dellavedova 6-4 205 6-4
Marcus Williams (UConn) 6-3¼ 215 6-7
Dion Waiters 6-4 221 6-7¼
Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.

Mike Schmitz is an NBA draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.

Flight · Dec 12, 2020

NBA draft stock watch: Scouting international stars, No. 1 pick contender

Skooby · Dec 12, 2020

Flight said:

NBA draft stock watch: Scouting international stars, No. 1 pick contender

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NBA draft stock watch: Scouting international stars, No. 1 pick contender

In another uncertain draft year, as the coronavirus pandemic continues to surge, every scouting opportunity is important to NBA front offices. Here are the latest storylines, trends and prospects to watch, including USC's Evan Mobley looking like a No. 1 pick contender, breakout international players and more scouting notes.

Evan Mobley | C | USC | No. 2 overall prospect
Although Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham sits atop our rankings, Mobley has proven that he belongs in the top-pick discussion with his play through five games.

The 19-year-old 7-footer has done just about everything on both ends of the floor for the 4-1 Trojans, averaging 17.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 3.0 blocks in 33.5 minutes while shooting 64% from 2 and 44% from 3. The raw numbers are impressive, but the details of the performance really have NBA decision-makers enamored.

Mobley's immediate NBA value will come on the defensive end, where he's already showing glimpses as an elite rim protector, thanks to his 7-foot-4 wingspan, timing, quick leaping ability and fluidity. At times, Mobley looks like he's operating at half-speed, but he gravitates to the ball instinctually. Mobley projects as a major asset in pick-and-roll, covering a ton of ground in drop situations while showing the foot speed to step out and switch for stretches.

USC's five opponents have a combined 8-11 record, so we'll have an eye on whether Mobley can sustain his defensive prowess against the Pac-12's elite. His first test comes Sunday against potential top-10 pick Ziaire Williams and Stanford. One of the biggest questions surrounding Mobley has been the consistency of his motor. He's far from a forceful defensive rebounder -- his high center of gravity and light lower body, at 215 pounds, allow more physical bigs to eliminate him on the glass or move him on the block. But even if you'd like more fire on the backboards, Mobley gets so much done on defense.

The defense was expected, but Mobley's offensive versatility has been intriguing through five games. Equipped with great hands and a big catch radius, he is finishing lobs, dropping in jump hooks and igniting fast breaks as a ball handler. We saw glimpses of this in the past, but seeing it on a collegiate floor carries more weight. Mobley is incredibly coordinated for a player his size. He can stride to the rim in either direction, throw a lob to a wing or kick it out to an open shooter. Every NBA team wants bigs who can handle and pass, and Mobley figures to be valuable in dribble handoff and short roll situations when flush with shooting around him. After watching him warm up and shoot the ball through five games, it looks clear that it won't take him long to adjust to the NBA 3-point line, thanks to his excellent balance, soft touch and sound mechanics.

Mobley still doesn't have many ways to generate offense for himself in the half court against elite defenses. He can make face-up jumpers and hooks with either hand, but he shouldn't be counted on as a No. 1 or No. 2 option early in his career. Plus, he can be a bit passive. But he does just about everything on the floor, and there are loose glimpses of a young Anthony Davis when you watch him. Although not the same caliber shooter at a similar age, Mobley has similarities to Jaren Jackson Jr. with his shot-blocking instincts, switch ability and mismatch ballhandling.

There's a lot to be excited about with the USC big man, and if a team in dire need of a franchise big lands the No. 1 pick, I would expect Mobley to be in the mix as long as he keeps playing this way. -- Schmitz

Alperen Sengun | C | Besiktas | No. 30
Averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.1 steals in 28 minutes per game, Turkish big man Alperen Sengun is producing in a way we've never seen from an 18-year-old at the highest levels of European basketball.

Best European bigs at age 18
Name GP Pts/40 Reb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TS%
Alperen Sengun 11 29.3 14.8 2.2 1.6 2.2 71%
Jusuf Nurkic 28 28.5 13.9 1.7 2.6 2 61%
Ante Zizic 21 20.9 12.4 0.7 0.2 2.2 63%
Nikola Jokic 26 17.1 9.6 3.1 1.2 1.4 57%
Ivica Zubac 13 18.2 8.5 1.4 1.3 2.4 53%
Kristaps Porzingis 35 18.2 7.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 52%
Dario Saric 15 13.0 10.3 3.6 1.7 1.2 43%
Marc Gasol 17 6.4 8.8 0.7 1.7 1.0 40%

A stalwart of junior national teams who always played up on the competition but produced in elite fashion, Sengun made his debut with the senior national team in the FIBA window a few weeks back. He doesn't pass the eye test at first glance, standing 6-foot-9 with a pudgy frame and average length. On paper, he isn't really what the NBA is looking for in a modern big man, as he's caught between positions defensively and shooting just 1-of-10 from beyond the arc on the season. But he possesses the type of supernatural basketball instincts that are difficult to find, allowing him to lead one of the strongest leagues in European basketball in player efficiency rating (a massive 35.8) and suggesting that he has the type of skill and feel that will allow him to translate his productivity to NBA settings.

Sengun doesn't look particularly explosive or strong, but he's a fluid mover who is quick to the ball and usually first off the ground for dunks, rebounds and blocks. That fluidity helps him shoot an incredible 70% from the field while living at the free throw line. He has emerged as a real playmaker defensively and leads the league in offensive rebounding (7.6 per 40 minutes).

He's highly skilled on top of that, regularly creating offense for himself, pushing rebounds off the defensive glass, using shifty ballhandling moves in the half court and showing impressive body control and polished footwork in the lane. More physical than most 18-year-olds, he plays through contact without issue, setting excellent screens, possessing outstanding hands and drawing fouls in bunches. Although he has yet to show 3-point range, his touch around the basket, combined with the fact that he's shooting 84% from the free throw line, suggests that it's only a matter of time before he's able to do so. His continuing to improve as a passer will ease concerns about how heavily he relies on back-to-the-basket and offensive rebounding production.

Sengun is usually tasked with defending centers in Turkey, something that might prove difficult in the NBA, considering his power forward dimensions. His timing and instincts will help, as he's often in the right spots at the right time, but he'll have to continue to trim his frame and improve his lateral quickness in small spaces. The Beşiktaş star struggles to stay in front of quicker players and is strictly a drop defender in pick-and-rolls.

There are reasons to nitpick Sengun, but history suggests that players who produce like this at an early stage should not be discounted. He'll need to continue to do so to hold scouts' interest, but there's a lot to like about what he has shown thus far. -- Givony

Rokas Jokubaitis | G | Zalgiris | No. 43
The runaway favorite to win the EuroLeague's Rising Star award, Lithuanian point guard Rokas Jokubaitis has blossomed into one of the top guard prospects on the continent while turning 20 just a few weeks ago.

Having grown to 6-foot-5, Jokubaitis sees most of his minutes off the ball for Zalgiris, but he still gets plenty of reps operating out of pick-and-roll. Jokubaitis' ability to play at different speeds and find teammates with well-timed bounce passes using his excellent size to see over the top of defenses will intrigue NBA teams. He has been more aggressive looking for his own offense as well, seeking pull-up jumpers in the midrange, attacking the rim aggressively in transition and spotting up for open 3-pointers in the half court.

There's nothing flashy about his style of play, but his improved shooting, polished creativity in finishing with his weaker right hand and defensive feel all give him a clear pathway to be a solid role player in the NBA. Although his lack of standout athleticism might cap his upside, he has solidified his standing in the second round and could look to be selected late in the first round if he can take another step with his production and consistency. -- Givony

Jalen Wilson | F | Kansas | No. 58
A broken ankle suffered 30 seconds into Wilson's second game derailed his freshman season at Kansas, causing him to redshirt with just three minutes of playing time. He has been making up for lost time, averaging 15.7 points on 26.5 minutes per game and emerging as the Jayhawks' go-to guy while surprisingly leading the team in scoring.

Wilson came up huge in a pair of wins over Kentucky and Creighton last week, dropping a combined 46 points while making six of 11 from 3-point range. His strong, 6-foot-8 frame and aggressiveness crashing the glass have been key for Kansas, with the ability to go small with him at center.

How sustainable that is -- and what it means for Wilson's timeline as an NBA prospect -- is to be determined after just six games. But it's clear that he has some type of NBA future as a 6-foot-8 power forward who can knock down out-of-rhythm 3-pointers while showing the ability to score in the open floor.

The fact that he has registered a single block and no steals in 159 minutes will surely give NBA teams pause, and his on-court decision-making at points has left something to be desired. But Kansas has sent 18 players to the NBA draft in the past decade, and if Wilson is going to be the team's best offensive player as a redshirt freshman this season, the NBA is likely in his future. -- Givony

Isaiah Jackson | F/C | Kentucky | No. 12
Only the fourth-most heralded prospect in Kentucky's freshman class, according to the 2020 recruiting rankings, Jackson wasn't expected to play such an impactful role when Wake Forest transfer Olivier Sarr (an All-ACC player in 2019) was ruled eligible by the NCAA.

Jackson opened NBA eyes with his impressive dimensions at the Kentucky pro day and has continued to do so since the games tipped. He's one of the best athletes in the college game in terms of his ability to run the floor and get off his feet quickly for dunks and blocks. His closing speed rotating from the weak side to protect the rim is exceptional and gives him NBA All-Defensive Team potential when combined with the timing and instincts he displays as a shot-blocker.

While Jackson has been a difference-maker defensively, the flashes he has shown offensively have been encouraging as well. He has good hands, some budding ability to pass and create offense, and the type of shooting mechanics and touch that suggest he might be able to extend his range to the 3-point line as his career moves on.

Playing out of position as Kentucky's starting power forward, Jackson has been pretty inconsistent on both ends of the floor, despite the flashes of talent. He lacks lower body strength in a major way and can be mistake-prone with his decision-making, fundamentals and technique, as he's still at an early stage of development in terms of polish, experience and feel. Games against Notre Dame, UCLA and Louisville in the next few weeks will tell us more about where Jackson stands in the 2021 draft pecking order, but it's pretty clear that he's one of the better long-term prospects in this big man class, with significant room for growth as his frame fills out and the game slows down for him. -- Givony

Skooby · Dec 12, 2020

Ibou Badji | C | Barcelona 2/Senegal | No. 64
Unable to carve out a consistent role with Barcelona's first team, Badji had a great opportunity to show his abilities at the under-18 African Championships in Cairo. The 18-year-old 7-footer finished the tournament with averages of 11.0 points, 13.0 rebounds and 2.6 blocks in 32.8 minutes for a talented Senegal team that lost to Mali in the finals.

Standing 6-foot-11.5 barefoot, with a 7-foot-9 wingspan and elite feet for a player his size, Badji put a lid on the rim defensively for stretches, getting to shots few NBA centers could wipe away. His 3.2 blocks per 40 minutes wasn't indicative of his enormous impact around the rim. Badji is an ambidextrous shot-blocker whose reach and quick leaping ability make him a force as a defensive anchor when he's fully engaged. He even showed glimpses of verticality technique that we hadn't always seen from him in the past.

He's capable of stepping away from the rim defensively, too. His discipline and mechanics in pick-and-roll or switch situations need major work, but he has zero issue getting deep into a stance and staying with even the quickest guards. Overall, defensive discipline will be the focal point for Badji, but he has the type of versatility that NBA teams covet. It's easy to envision Badji playing a JaVale McGee, Mitchell Robinson or Hassan Whiteside type of role in the NBA.

That said, Badji struggles to catch the ball cleanly, make quick reads offensively and play to his strengths. Although we shouldn't fault him for wanting to show off his improved midrange stroke and post game in his first competition away from Barcelona in some time, he made a handful of questionable decisions. His back-to-the-basket footwork can be rigid, and he isn't that comfortable operating in dribble handoffs. He doesn't always run the floor consistently, either.

But with a strong frame, incredible length and elite run-and-jump athleticism, Badji could already hold his own physically in the NBA. He'll be one of only two NBA players with a wingspan 7-foot-9 or greater, joining Mo Bamba and Tacko Fall. Even with some of Badji's shortcomings and his limited role in Barcelona, it's difficult to envision all 30 teams passing on him twice. -- Schmitz

Khalifa Diop | C | Gran Canaria II/Senegal | No. 65
Diop has a strong frame, plays with a consistent motor and is consistently praised by coaches for his approach to the game. Playing much of the tournament out of position at the 4 next to Badji, Diop finished averaging 12.6 points, 11.8 rebounds, 3.4 steals and 1.2 blocks while shooting 62.5% from 2 and 25% from 3.

Diop was the heart and soul of his Senegal team, manning the backboards, running the floor hard, setting bruising screens, doing his best to protect the rim and moving the ball side to side with his handle and vision. Although he had a fair amount of miscues, Diop proved himself as a facilitator. He ignited the break with outlet passes, found shooters out of short rolls, played out of handoffs comfortably and pinpointed the weakside corner out of post double-teams. Diop's ability to read the game didn't seem like a product of the level of competition, either.

Aside from his passing, Diop's rebounding is most translatable. He plays with great energy, is relentless on the offensive glass and pinpoints the ball in traffic, despite not having the biggest reach or the best vertical. With a 7-foot-2 wingspan, he's nowhere near the shot-blocker of Badji, but he was almost always in position around the rim, sliding over to take a charge or altering shots with verticality. He also has the agility to defend pick-and-rolls both in drop situations and out of switches.

Diop is still a work in progress with his perimeter shooting. He is also in his own head at the free throw line, where he converted just 48.5%. But he shows enough potential to instill some optimism that he could space the floor from NBA 3 down the road. Although his role at the highest level isn't clear, he's absolutely an NBA prospect and will be an attractive draft-and-stash option, should he opt to stay in the 2021 draft. -- Schmitz

Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.

Mike Schmitz is an NBA draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.

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