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Scout's Take: ESPN 100 SF DeAndre Hunter to Virginia
Small forward DeAndre Hunter, ranked No.79 overall in the ESPN 100, ended his recruitment Saturday night when he committed to head coach Tony Bennett and the Virginia Cavaliers while on his official visit. Hunter also considered Oklahoma State, St. Joseph's, Notre Dame, Maryland, Miami and Villanova.
Here's a look at what the four-star forward brings to the ACC.
Why he committed: Hunter said he really liked the family atmosphere and style of play in addition to the quality education that Virginia provides.
What he brings: Hunter is a long and skilled forward who can score from a variety of areas on the floor. He has an excellent touch out to the arc and he delivers buckets from the mid-range areas as well. Hunter finishes around the rim with great efficiency and simply has a terrific offensive feel, which makes him a very difficult matchup.
How he fits: Hunter gives Tony Bennett a forward who can score not only in transition but within the halfcourt motion-style offense. Hunter can score off a variety of screening actions and isolations when he has a matchup advantage. He can also post up smaller defenders and score right over them. Defensively, Hunter will be excellent in the Cavaliers' man defense. He will use every inch of his length to keep multiple offensive players in front of him, while making them shoot contested pressured shots without fouling.
Who he reminds us of: Hunter reminds us at times of a cross between wings Harrison Barnes and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, with his ability to shoot it from the perimeter and playmaking inside the arc off the dribble and in the post when the matchup is in his favor.
How the class is shaping up: Hunter joins two ESPN 100 selections in Virginia's 2016 recruiting class, led by No. 25 SG Kyle Guy and No. 54 PG Ty Jerome to go along with 6-foot-10 skilled PF Jay Huff. This group gives the Cavaliers plenty of scoring, athleticism and rebounding and is a class is full of talent and high character.
Virginia now running with big dogs in recruiting
Thirty wins in back-to-back seasons. Two straight ACC regular-season championships. A No. 1 seed in 2014 and a No. 2 seed in 2015.
Tony Bennett has clearly gotten things rolling at Virginia the past two seasons, and brighter things could be in store for the upcoming season: Eamonn Brennan ranked the Cavaliers No. 4 in his August top 25.
But before this recruiting cycle, the success had mostly come from under-the-radar high school prospects that Bennett pinpointed before their recruitments blew up. As we wrote last fall, Bennett did a good job of finding players early in their recruitments and getting commitments quickly.
It’s gone a little differently in the 2016 class -- and that’s a good thing for Virginia. Saturday night’s commitment from ESPN 100 small forward DeAndre Hunter (No. 79 in the ESPN 100) was the Cavaliers’ third ESPN 100 pledge for 2016. Hunter joins five-star guard Kyle Guy (No. 25) and four-star guard Ty Jerome (No. 54), as well as three-star center Jay Huff.
“I think that Virginia is a program that keeps getting better every year and players like myself see how good they are now and how good they will be in the future in the ACC,” Hunter told ESPN.com Sunday night.
That’s not all, though. Virginia also received a commitment from ESPN 100 prospect Mamadi Diakite last month, but he decided to reclassify to 2015 and redshirt the upcoming season. Diakite will team with Memphis transfer Austin Nichols (13.3 points, 6.1 rebounds) on the sideline this season before hitting the court in the 2016-17 season.
Make no mistake, the Cavaliers have had talent the past couple of seasons. Justin Anderson and Mike Tobey were former top-100 prospects; Anthony Gill is an efficient, skilled big man; Malcolm Brogdon could push for All-American honors this season; London Perrantes is one of the most solid point guards in the country.
But this is different. Virginia has never had a class like this under Bennett. As it stands, the Cavaliers could easily make a case for a top-five class in the country -- at worst. Plus, that ranking wouldn't include the additions of Diakite and Nichols, the latter of whom could be one of the best big men in the ACC in 2016-17.
“I think it might change the perception because we are all offensively skilled,” Hunter said. “But playing at Virginia, who is usually known for defense, we will have to play defense as well.”
Brogdon, Gill, Tobey and Evan Nolte will be gone after the upcoming season, but Bennett has clearly reloaded. He knew going into the 2016 cycle that it would be a key class; he’s typically alternated big and small classes, and 2015 only had one commit (four-star Jarred Reuter) prior to Diakite reclassifying.
“I think we can be really good,” Hunter said. “I couldn't tell you how much we are going to lose or win, but with the plan that Coach Bennett has for us, and his coaching ability, plus the talent coming in, we will be very good.”
The personnel might be a little higher-profile moving forward, but that’s not a bad thing; it comes with winning at a high level.
And Virginia is doing that as well as anyone.
Superlatives from Nike Each 1 Teach 1 Camp
TAMPA -- The Nike Each 1 Teach 1 Premier Exposure Camp brought together prospects from throughout the talent-rich state of Florida, and neighboring states, to compete under one roof. Here are some superlatives from this high-level event: Most versatile: Kevin Knox (No. 16 in ESPN 60 for 2017), PF/SF, 6-8, 195, Tampa Catholic/Tampa, FL
Offers include: Florida State, LSU, Xavier, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida, South Florida, Texas Tech
Knox is a long, athletic combination forward who I think is still slightly more of a power forward than a small forward -- but that should change as he continues to develop his game. Knox rebounds and starts the break with an excellent bust- out dribble, and can get to the rim and finish on a regular basis. He can knock down the open jumper with range to the arc when on balance, and after a few rhythm dribbles. He can straight-line drive to the rim and finish, especially going right. Knox rebounds both ends as well. He must add strength and work on attacking to his left, but has all the tools to be a special college player with continued hard work and development. I love his current on court production.
Best shooters: Wyatt Wilkes, SG, 6-7, 210, Winter Park/Winter Park, FL
Offers include: Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, Stanford
Wilkes is tall, strong wing who can flat out shoot the ball from deep off the catch or rhythm dribble. His size allows him to shoot over smaller defenders with ease. He is a good straight-line driver and can pass on time and on target. He must continue to develop his middle game. Simply put, Wilkes is a high-level shooter and team glue guy with an excellent basketball IQ, and is not given enough credit for his athleticism. He's fun to watch compete.
Antwann Jones Jr. (No. 16 in ESPN 25 for 2018), SG, 6-6, 200, Sickles/Tampa, FL
Offers include: Rutgers, South Carolina Interest: Miami, Florida State, Syracuse, Dayton, South Florida, Bowling Green
Jones is a big, strong shooting guard with excellent ball skills and deep shooting range off the catch or rhythm dribble. Jones does a great job creating space off the dribble to get his shot off, and is also a very good passer when he draws a second defender. He must continue to work on his athleticism (which is underrated to begin with), but make no mistake about it, Jones can put the ball in the basket and has tremendous upside.
Best two-way guard: Darius Perry (No. 58 in ESPN 60 for 2017), PG, 6-2, 180, Wheeler/Powder Springs, GA
Offers include: Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Minnesota, Xavier, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Florida State
Perry is an attacking guard who has the ability to make high-level plays on both ends of the floor. He can score on or off the ball with range to the arc and is a good drive, draw and kick or drop-off passer. He moves his feet well on defense and has active hands, which allows him to put excellent pressure on the ball and set the tone for his team defensively.
Most intriguing: Chaundee Brown, SF, 6-5, 205, First Academy/Orlando, FL
Offers include: Georgia, UAB, Central Florida, Clemson, Texas Tech
Interested schools include: Alabama Kansas, Florida, Florida State
Brown is a strong, physical, all-business wing who finishes on the break, can get to the rim and completes plays through contact with ease. He is a very underrated shooter, especially when his feet are set and he is on balance. He competes and has shown the ability to be a consistent performer. The more you watch Brown, the more you appreciate his game. I like the direction he is going and am excited to see if he can continue to perform at this level.
Brightest future: Jared Jones, PF, 6-9, 235, The Potter's House/Jacksonville, FL
Interested schools include: Virginia Tech, Virginia, Florida State, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest among others.
Jones, a member of the 2019 class, has excellent size. He has good touch and feel in and around the lane as well. He can hit open shots when set and does a good job scoring in the post with his back to the rim. He goes to the glass on both ends, gets his share of blocked shots, and rebounds at a steady clip as well. He must continue to develop his ball skills and build his game, but his upside is off charts. Jones has not scratched the surface of how good he could become, and he is not done growing yet -- he just turned 15 years old.
Small forward DeAndre Hunter, ranked No.79 overall in the ESPN 100, ended his recruitment Saturday night when he committed to head coach Tony Bennett and the Virginia Cavaliers while on his official visit. Hunter also considered Oklahoma State, St. Joseph's, Notre Dame, Maryland, Miami and Villanova.
Here's a look at what the four-star forward brings to the ACC.
Why he committed: Hunter said he really liked the family atmosphere and style of play in addition to the quality education that Virginia provides.
What he brings: Hunter is a long and skilled forward who can score from a variety of areas on the floor. He has an excellent touch out to the arc and he delivers buckets from the mid-range areas as well. Hunter finishes around the rim with great efficiency and simply has a terrific offensive feel, which makes him a very difficult matchup.
How he fits: Hunter gives Tony Bennett a forward who can score not only in transition but within the halfcourt motion-style offense. Hunter can score off a variety of screening actions and isolations when he has a matchup advantage. He can also post up smaller defenders and score right over them. Defensively, Hunter will be excellent in the Cavaliers' man defense. He will use every inch of his length to keep multiple offensive players in front of him, while making them shoot contested pressured shots without fouling.
Who he reminds us of: Hunter reminds us at times of a cross between wings Harrison Barnes and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, with his ability to shoot it from the perimeter and playmaking inside the arc off the dribble and in the post when the matchup is in his favor.
How the class is shaping up: Hunter joins two ESPN 100 selections in Virginia's 2016 recruiting class, led by No. 25 SG Kyle Guy and No. 54 PG Ty Jerome to go along with 6-foot-10 skilled PF Jay Huff. This group gives the Cavaliers plenty of scoring, athleticism and rebounding and is a class is full of talent and high character.
Virginia now running with big dogs in recruiting
Thirty wins in back-to-back seasons. Two straight ACC regular-season championships. A No. 1 seed in 2014 and a No. 2 seed in 2015.
Tony Bennett has clearly gotten things rolling at Virginia the past two seasons, and brighter things could be in store for the upcoming season: Eamonn Brennan ranked the Cavaliers No. 4 in his August top 25.
But before this recruiting cycle, the success had mostly come from under-the-radar high school prospects that Bennett pinpointed before their recruitments blew up. As we wrote last fall, Bennett did a good job of finding players early in their recruitments and getting commitments quickly.
It’s gone a little differently in the 2016 class -- and that’s a good thing for Virginia. Saturday night’s commitment from ESPN 100 small forward DeAndre Hunter (No. 79 in the ESPN 100) was the Cavaliers’ third ESPN 100 pledge for 2016. Hunter joins five-star guard Kyle Guy (No. 25) and four-star guard Ty Jerome (No. 54), as well as three-star center Jay Huff.
“I think that Virginia is a program that keeps getting better every year and players like myself see how good they are now and how good they will be in the future in the ACC,” Hunter told ESPN.com Sunday night.
That’s not all, though. Virginia also received a commitment from ESPN 100 prospect Mamadi Diakite last month, but he decided to reclassify to 2015 and redshirt the upcoming season. Diakite will team with Memphis transfer Austin Nichols (13.3 points, 6.1 rebounds) on the sideline this season before hitting the court in the 2016-17 season.
Make no mistake, the Cavaliers have had talent the past couple of seasons. Justin Anderson and Mike Tobey were former top-100 prospects; Anthony Gill is an efficient, skilled big man; Malcolm Brogdon could push for All-American honors this season; London Perrantes is one of the most solid point guards in the country.
But this is different. Virginia has never had a class like this under Bennett. As it stands, the Cavaliers could easily make a case for a top-five class in the country -- at worst. Plus, that ranking wouldn't include the additions of Diakite and Nichols, the latter of whom could be one of the best big men in the ACC in 2016-17.
“I think it might change the perception because we are all offensively skilled,” Hunter said. “But playing at Virginia, who is usually known for defense, we will have to play defense as well.”
Brogdon, Gill, Tobey and Evan Nolte will be gone after the upcoming season, but Bennett has clearly reloaded. He knew going into the 2016 cycle that it would be a key class; he’s typically alternated big and small classes, and 2015 only had one commit (four-star Jarred Reuter) prior to Diakite reclassifying.
“I think we can be really good,” Hunter said. “I couldn't tell you how much we are going to lose or win, but with the plan that Coach Bennett has for us, and his coaching ability, plus the talent coming in, we will be very good.”
The personnel might be a little higher-profile moving forward, but that’s not a bad thing; it comes with winning at a high level.
And Virginia is doing that as well as anyone.
Superlatives from Nike Each 1 Teach 1 Camp
TAMPA -- The Nike Each 1 Teach 1 Premier Exposure Camp brought together prospects from throughout the talent-rich state of Florida, and neighboring states, to compete under one roof. Here are some superlatives from this high-level event: Most versatile: Kevin Knox (No. 16 in ESPN 60 for 2017), PF/SF, 6-8, 195, Tampa Catholic/Tampa, FL
Offers include: Florida State, LSU, Xavier, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida, South Florida, Texas Tech
Knox is a long, athletic combination forward who I think is still slightly more of a power forward than a small forward -- but that should change as he continues to develop his game. Knox rebounds and starts the break with an excellent bust- out dribble, and can get to the rim and finish on a regular basis. He can knock down the open jumper with range to the arc when on balance, and after a few rhythm dribbles. He can straight-line drive to the rim and finish, especially going right. Knox rebounds both ends as well. He must add strength and work on attacking to his left, but has all the tools to be a special college player with continued hard work and development. I love his current on court production.
Best shooters: Wyatt Wilkes, SG, 6-7, 210, Winter Park/Winter Park, FL
Offers include: Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, Stanford
Wilkes is tall, strong wing who can flat out shoot the ball from deep off the catch or rhythm dribble. His size allows him to shoot over smaller defenders with ease. He is a good straight-line driver and can pass on time and on target. He must continue to develop his middle game. Simply put, Wilkes is a high-level shooter and team glue guy with an excellent basketball IQ, and is not given enough credit for his athleticism. He's fun to watch compete.
Antwann Jones Jr. (No. 16 in ESPN 25 for 2018), SG, 6-6, 200, Sickles/Tampa, FL
Offers include: Rutgers, South Carolina Interest: Miami, Florida State, Syracuse, Dayton, South Florida, Bowling Green
Jones is a big, strong shooting guard with excellent ball skills and deep shooting range off the catch or rhythm dribble. Jones does a great job creating space off the dribble to get his shot off, and is also a very good passer when he draws a second defender. He must continue to work on his athleticism (which is underrated to begin with), but make no mistake about it, Jones can put the ball in the basket and has tremendous upside.
Best two-way guard: Darius Perry (No. 58 in ESPN 60 for 2017), PG, 6-2, 180, Wheeler/Powder Springs, GA
Offers include: Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Minnesota, Xavier, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Florida State
Perry is an attacking guard who has the ability to make high-level plays on both ends of the floor. He can score on or off the ball with range to the arc and is a good drive, draw and kick or drop-off passer. He moves his feet well on defense and has active hands, which allows him to put excellent pressure on the ball and set the tone for his team defensively.
Most intriguing: Chaundee Brown, SF, 6-5, 205, First Academy/Orlando, FL
Offers include: Georgia, UAB, Central Florida, Clemson, Texas Tech
Interested schools include: Alabama Kansas, Florida, Florida State
Brown is a strong, physical, all-business wing who finishes on the break, can get to the rim and completes plays through contact with ease. He is a very underrated shooter, especially when his feet are set and he is on balance. He competes and has shown the ability to be a consistent performer. The more you watch Brown, the more you appreciate his game. I like the direction he is going and am excited to see if he can continue to perform at this level.
Brightest future: Jared Jones, PF, 6-9, 235, The Potter's House/Jacksonville, FL
Interested schools include: Virginia Tech, Virginia, Florida State, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest among others.
Jones, a member of the 2019 class, has excellent size. He has good touch and feel in and around the lane as well. He can hit open shots when set and does a good job scoring in the post with his back to the rim. He goes to the glass on both ends, gets his share of blocked shots, and rebounds at a steady clip as well. He must continue to develop his ball skills and build his game, but his upside is off charts. Jones has not scratched the surface of how good he could become, and he is not done growing yet -- he just turned 15 years old.
ESPN No. 8 SF Miles Bridges trims list to three schools
Top-10 prospect Miles Bridges is down to three schools, and has set a decision date.
Bridges told ESPN.com that his final three consists of Indiana, Kentucky and Michigan State.
The 6-foot-7 small forward had originally trimmed his list to five and planned official visits to Michigan and North Carolina, but those two schools were cut from his finalists.
“I didn't want to waste anybody’s time,” Bridges said. “I’m trying to get this recruiting stuff over with.”
Bridges won’t have much longer -- he told ESPN.com he will make his decision on October 3.
Bridges (No. 8 in the ESPN 100) took his official visit to Michigan State this past weekend, and already tripped to Indiana in late August. He had planned to take his official visit to Kentucky during the Wildcats’ Big Blue Madness festivities on October 16, but the new timetable has forced him to move up his visit.
Bridges will visit Kentucky this weekend.
Bridges was one of the most impressive players in the country during the month of July, averaging 22.8 points and 10.0 rebounds at the Nike Peach Jam.
Top-10 prospect Miles Bridges is down to three schools, and has set a decision date.
Bridges told ESPN.com that his final three consists of Indiana, Kentucky and Michigan State.
The 6-foot-7 small forward had originally trimmed his list to five and planned official visits to Michigan and North Carolina, but those two schools were cut from his finalists.
“I didn't want to waste anybody’s time,” Bridges said. “I’m trying to get this recruiting stuff over with.”
Bridges won’t have much longer -- he told ESPN.com he will make his decision on October 3.
Bridges (No. 8 in the ESPN 100) took his official visit to Michigan State this past weekend, and already tripped to Indiana in late August. He had planned to take his official visit to Kentucky during the Wildcats’ Big Blue Madness festivities on October 16, but the new timetable has forced him to move up his visit.
Bridges will visit Kentucky this weekend.
Bridges was one of the most impressive players in the country during the month of July, averaging 22.8 points and 10.0 rebounds at the Nike Peach Jam.
@Skooby Can you post this article
The Kam Chancellor debate: Can his absence derail the Seattle Seahawks' defense?
The Kam Chancellor debate: Can his absence derail the Seattle Seahawks' defense?
The Kam Chancellor debate: Can his absence derail Seattle's D?
Kam Chancellor's holdout didn't take long to impact the Seattle Seahawks' season.
Chancellor's replacement, Dion Bailey, a former USC linebacker turned safety, got burned for the game-tying TD in the final minute by Rams TE Lance Kendricks.
While Seahawks management has logical reasons for holding firm against Chancellor's wish to adjust a contract that runs through 2017, that pivotal play against St. Louis and several others build a case that Seattle cannot play its familiar brand of defense without its hard-hitting Pro Bowl safety in the fold. That could be an overreaction after just one game. ... Or is it?
ESPN analyst and former NFL safety Matt Bowen joins ESPN Insider columnist Mike Sando to discuss the immediate cost of playing without Chancellor, the value of the strong safety position relative to others and how much Seattle's outlook for the season changes if Chancellor stays away.
Sando: I've gone through the St. Louis game with a veteran defensive coach who has studied this defense over the years. I'll start by saying that no one expected Bailey in his first start to even remotely approximate a player who could go down as the iconic strong safety of his era. But still, this defensive coach singled out 13 plays he thought told the story of Bailey as a player who was frequently late in reacting, had trouble changing directions the way top athletes do and spent entirely too much time on all fours -- "ankle biting" was what he called it -- instead of making actual tackles.
Bowen: I don't like coming down on young players. Trust me, this game is hard -- and it's even harder when you are put in a tough situation and forced to replace a player like Chancellor. But I have to be honest: This is a completely different defense without Kam on the field. Because of his rare size/speed combo, he's able to make a difference in any situation in Seattle's core scheme.
Sando: There's much to discuss here, but first I wanted to leverage your expertise as a former NFL safety in analyzing what happened Sunday.
Bowen: We can break down the issues into a few categories:
Inexperience: Bailey looked like a young player just trying to line up. Scheme recognition against the run is vital to Seattle when the strong safety drops into the box. Instead of reading his keys and attacking, Bailey would hesitate, take a false step or round his angle to the ball. He often got stuck with his eyes in the backfield and lacked awareness in underneath zones. Instead of dropping to the "curl" or "hook" in Seattle's core Cover 3 and getting his feet set, Bailey would drift or have his eyes in the wrong spot. He doesn't have the feel that we see with Kam to get depth (with speed), read the QB and go.
Physical presence: Chancellor is one of the most intimidating players in the game. That's why the Seahawks always dictate the flow of the game from the secondary. It makes them a special unit, unique in that they can tell the opposing offense what they can and cannot do. I didn't see many situations where Bailey used his pads or was in the proper position to deliver a knock-out blow. Again, that goes back to his eyes. That's a major negative on this D. He also missed tackles and often lunged at the point of attack, dropping his head and diving at the legs. There was none of the "Hawk tackling" this team has showcased in the past.
Coverage: I will give Bailey some credit here in his man-coverage ability because he does challenge tight ends. Most of the time, he's able to flat-foot read the release without backpedal or panic. He will plant his feet and allow the tight end to declare his route. But he made a major mistake late in the fourth quarter with the Rams driving to tie the game, giving up a 37-yard score to Kendricks (see screenshots). Bailey failed to ID the go route and open his hips. When a WR/TE presses (or eats up your cushion), you must open and run. Every route outside of the three-step game breaks at a depth of 12-15 yards. He has to know the situation and protect against the deep ball. Don't tell me he fell down. No, he did not play with technique and got beat as a result.
Communication: A scout I spoke with made a great point on this one. Kam's voice is missing. Communication in the secondary is crucial to production as a unit. Go to Foles' 1-yard touchdown run. Bailey looked confused, chased the corner route (which turned into a double team with linebacker) and had his back to the ball as Foles strolled in for an easy score. Yikes. This stuff takes time to develop.
Sando: These are great points. They aren't really in dispute. But one of the things the defensive coach and I discussed was whether even a great strong safety really makes enough difference from play-to-play standpoint for a team to revisit a contract with three years remaining on it. We were skeptical. It's a tough case to make to someone caught up in the big blown coverage late in the game, but in looking at all the other plays when Bailey could have done this or that better, his failures cost the team a few yards here or there, not massive swings in field position.
Now, the impact plays are missing. Chancellor forces fumbles, makes huge hits, stands over opponents and all that. But Seattle has lost before to Jeff Fisher's Rams even when Chancellor was in the lineup. This would be a bigger deal if Seattle were missing a pass-rushing force whose absence would clearly affect a dozen plays in any game. I'd be inclined to see how this plays out over the next few weeks before declaring Seattle dramatically diminished without Chancellor.
Bowen: That's fair. I do expect Bailey to get better each week he gets the start. Game reps are the ultimate teaching tools in the NFL. You have to play and, really, make mistakes to learn. But can they still contend without Kam out there? Maybe. You can be sure that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will go after this kid early and often on Sunday, until he shows he can make plays and dominate against the run. Nick Foles just passed for 297 yards. Third-string back Bennie Cunningham totaled 122 yards from scrimmage. That's not exactly the Rodgers/Eddie Lacy combo Seattle will see this week.
Sando: A little history can help us look ahead more clearly. Last season, the Seahawks fell to 3-3 with a 28-26 defeat in St. Louis. Austin Davis completed 17 of 20 passes against Seattle in that game -- two for touchdowns. Davis had a 132.3 passer rating and 97.7 QBR score in that game. Pro Football Focus had Chancellor with a minus-1.3 grade (Bailey was at minus-1.7 Sunday). There will be bumps in the road for any team, but after all Pete Carroll and this team have proven over recent seasons, I think it's reasonable to say they'll figure out ways to compensate. It might not be enough to win in Green Bay this week, but I had them losing that game anyway.
Kam Chancellor's holdout didn't take long to impact the Seattle Seahawks' season.
Chancellor's replacement, Dion Bailey, a former USC linebacker turned safety, got burned for the game-tying TD in the final minute by Rams TE Lance Kendricks.
While Seahawks management has logical reasons for holding firm against Chancellor's wish to adjust a contract that runs through 2017, that pivotal play against St. Louis and several others build a case that Seattle cannot play its familiar brand of defense without its hard-hitting Pro Bowl safety in the fold. That could be an overreaction after just one game. ... Or is it?
ESPN analyst and former NFL safety Matt Bowen joins ESPN Insider columnist Mike Sando to discuss the immediate cost of playing without Chancellor, the value of the strong safety position relative to others and how much Seattle's outlook for the season changes if Chancellor stays away.
Sando: I've gone through the St. Louis game with a veteran defensive coach who has studied this defense over the years. I'll start by saying that no one expected Bailey in his first start to even remotely approximate a player who could go down as the iconic strong safety of his era. But still, this defensive coach singled out 13 plays he thought told the story of Bailey as a player who was frequently late in reacting, had trouble changing directions the way top athletes do and spent entirely too much time on all fours -- "ankle biting" was what he called it -- instead of making actual tackles.
Bowen: I don't like coming down on young players. Trust me, this game is hard -- and it's even harder when you are put in a tough situation and forced to replace a player like Chancellor. But I have to be honest: This is a completely different defense without Kam on the field. Because of his rare size/speed combo, he's able to make a difference in any situation in Seattle's core scheme.
Sando: There's much to discuss here, but first I wanted to leverage your expertise as a former NFL safety in analyzing what happened Sunday.
Bowen: We can break down the issues into a few categories:
Inexperience: Bailey looked like a young player just trying to line up. Scheme recognition against the run is vital to Seattle when the strong safety drops into the box. Instead of reading his keys and attacking, Bailey would hesitate, take a false step or round his angle to the ball. He often got stuck with his eyes in the backfield and lacked awareness in underneath zones. Instead of dropping to the "curl" or "hook" in Seattle's core Cover 3 and getting his feet set, Bailey would drift or have his eyes in the wrong spot. He doesn't have the feel that we see with Kam to get depth (with speed), read the QB and go.
Physical presence: Chancellor is one of the most intimidating players in the game. That's why the Seahawks always dictate the flow of the game from the secondary. It makes them a special unit, unique in that they can tell the opposing offense what they can and cannot do. I didn't see many situations where Bailey used his pads or was in the proper position to deliver a knock-out blow. Again, that goes back to his eyes. That's a major negative on this D. He also missed tackles and often lunged at the point of attack, dropping his head and diving at the legs. There was none of the "Hawk tackling" this team has showcased in the past.
Coverage: I will give Bailey some credit here in his man-coverage ability because he does challenge tight ends. Most of the time, he's able to flat-foot read the release without backpedal or panic. He will plant his feet and allow the tight end to declare his route. But he made a major mistake late in the fourth quarter with the Rams driving to tie the game, giving up a 37-yard score to Kendricks (see screenshots). Bailey failed to ID the go route and open his hips. When a WR/TE presses (or eats up your cushion), you must open and run. Every route outside of the three-step game breaks at a depth of 12-15 yards. He has to know the situation and protect against the deep ball. Don't tell me he fell down. No, he did not play with technique and got beat as a result.
Communication: A scout I spoke with made a great point on this one. Kam's voice is missing. Communication in the secondary is crucial to production as a unit. Go to Foles' 1-yard touchdown run. Bailey looked confused, chased the corner route (which turned into a double team with linebacker) and had his back to the ball as Foles strolled in for an easy score. Yikes. This stuff takes time to develop.
Sando: These are great points. They aren't really in dispute. But one of the things the defensive coach and I discussed was whether even a great strong safety really makes enough difference from play-to-play standpoint for a team to revisit a contract with three years remaining on it. We were skeptical. It's a tough case to make to someone caught up in the big blown coverage late in the game, but in looking at all the other plays when Bailey could have done this or that better, his failures cost the team a few yards here or there, not massive swings in field position.
Now, the impact plays are missing. Chancellor forces fumbles, makes huge hits, stands over opponents and all that. But Seattle has lost before to Jeff Fisher's Rams even when Chancellor was in the lineup. This would be a bigger deal if Seattle were missing a pass-rushing force whose absence would clearly affect a dozen plays in any game. I'd be inclined to see how this plays out over the next few weeks before declaring Seattle dramatically diminished without Chancellor.
Bowen: That's fair. I do expect Bailey to get better each week he gets the start. Game reps are the ultimate teaching tools in the NFL. You have to play and, really, make mistakes to learn. But can they still contend without Kam out there? Maybe. You can be sure that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will go after this kid early and often on Sunday, until he shows he can make plays and dominate against the run. Nick Foles just passed for 297 yards. Third-string back Bennie Cunningham totaled 122 yards from scrimmage. That's not exactly the Rodgers/Eddie Lacy combo Seattle will see this week.
Sando: A little history can help us look ahead more clearly. Last season, the Seahawks fell to 3-3 with a 28-26 defeat in St. Louis. Austin Davis completed 17 of 20 passes against Seattle in that game -- two for touchdowns. Davis had a 132.3 passer rating and 97.7 QBR score in that game. Pro Football Focus had Chancellor with a minus-1.3 grade (Bailey was at minus-1.7 Sunday). There will be bumps in the road for any team, but after all Pete Carroll and this team have proven over recent seasons, I think it's reasonable to say they'll figure out ways to compensate. It might not be enough to win in Green Bay this week, but I had them losing that game anyway.
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What the Raptors need out of Jonas Valanciunas
Despite a quiet game in EuroBasket action on Sunday, Jonas Valanciunas has had a nice run the past couple of weeks, leading Lithuania's run to the quarterfinals with team-leading averages of 15.4 points, eight rebounds and 1.4 blocks.
Next up for Valanciunas and his countrymen is an interesting matchup for Toronto Raptors fans against Italy and perennial Raptors disappointment Andrea Bargnani. If Lithuania survives that test, Valanciunas could later run up against other quality big men such as Jan Vesely, Miroslav Raduljica, Pau Gasol, Nemanja Bjelica and Kosta Koufos -- all of whom remain alive in the EuroBasket bracket.
Just before starting EuroBasket competition, Valanciunas inked a four-year, $64 million extension to remain Toronto's center for the foreseeable future. As ESPN's Kevin Pelton wrote, in light of the rising salary cap it's not going to be all that difficult for Valanciunas' extension to work from a production-to-pay standpoint.
But after Toronto's late-season swoon and first-round thumping at the hands of Washington in April, the Raptors need more from Valanciunas than to simply justify his contract. They need for him to become the kind of bedrock, two-way center that the Raptors can lean on in the postseason. Entering his fourth NBA season, is Valanciunas ready to do that?
Where he's at
Last month, we examined the roster construction of teams around the NBA through the prism of roster construction. Underlying that analysis was my system of placing players on tiers, as explained in the link. In the case of Valanciunas, he has shown steady improvement through his young career and his performance made a significant leap last season. His individual winning percentage jumped by more than 100 points, to .586, and his 7.5 WARP more than doubled his previous career high.
During his first two seasons, Valanciunas' bottom-line metrics placed him on the second-unit tier. He jumped to the starter tier last season, ranking No. 63 in WARP. That in itself suggests Valanciunas is already a legit No. 3 to Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. But despite his solid box-score metrics, his impact has been limited. Last season, Valanciunas' single-season RPM was minus-0.68, and that was nearly a two-point improvement over the season before. His multi-season RPM (minus-1.63) ranks in just the 41st percentile. Valanciunas' RPM splits go like this: 18th percentile on offense, and 73rd on defense.
The disconnect between Valanciunas' WARP and RPM is starkly illustrated by his odd pattern of playing time. Last season, he played two fewer minutes per game than the season before. Even more troubling, Valanciunas played 292 fourth-quarter minutes all season in 57 games. That's right -- Dwane Casey opted not to use Valanciunas for a single second in 23 of the 80 fourth quarters in which he was available. Yet despite the limited exposure, Valanciunas' raw total of minus-36 points in the fourth quarter (per NBA.com/stats) was the second-worst figure on the Raptors. That's a big reason why eight of Valanciunas' teammates played more fourth-quarter minutes.
Sure, some of this is a reaction to Toronto opponents going small late in games, but consider this: Despite his keep-your-eyes-covered free throw shooting, the Clippers' DeAndre Jordan played almost twice as many fourth-quarter minutes as Valanciunas, who by the way is an above-average free throw shooter. Going forward, that's got to change.
For one thing, this summer Toronto saw more than a third of its minutes from last season depart and will have a very different depth chart this season. Gone is a big chunk of Toronto's interior defense: Chuck Hayes, Tyler Hansbrough,Amir Johnson and Greg Stiemsma are elsewhere. While Toronto did add Bismack Biyombo and Luis Scola to the frontcourt mix, the team's biggest signing was forward DeMarre Carroll, who will attempt to provide a needed upgrade to the Raptors' perimeter defense. But it will largely be up to Valanciunas to shore up the middle. Given that Valanciunas won't turn 24 until just after the end of the 2015-16 season, his career arc is solid enough. Nevertheless, the Raptors need more, and they need it right away.
Strengths
Valanciunas puts up solid indicators in the core skill set you look for in a traditional center. Post-up play? Check. According to Synergy Sports Technologies, Valanciunas ranked in the 93rd percentile per play on post-ups last season, and in the 97th percentile among centers. He's solid on the block, but is especially effective in the non-restricted area of the paint, ranking in the 96th percentile or better in each of the past two seasons, per NBA.com/stats. According to SportVu, Valanciunas averaged .70 points per touch last season, putting him in the 97th percentile at his position.
Valanciunas is a good rebounder, ranking in the 90th percentile or better on both ends. Likewise, he rates in the 86th percentile in grabbing contested rebounds. That's very good but not elite, and the Raptors as a team were in the middle of the pack on the defensive glass. Finally, while Valanciunas has some defensive holes, he does a capable job of protecting the hoop. His SportVu rim-protect metrics are in the 84th percentile, and his block rate is in the 87th.
Area of improvement: Defense in space
Despite Valanciunas' decent marks in post-up defense, Synergy rated him in the 25th percentile among centers in overall defense per play. His effect on the shooting percentage of guys he's guarding -- tracked by SportVu -- ranked in the 17th percentile. As noted, his defensive RPM is OK overall, though it was a little worse than that at his position.
Last season, Valanciunas allowed a .670 effective field-goal percentage against spot-up shooters, which is obviously not good. However, his results were much better during his first two seasons. On video from last season, it often appeared that when Valanciunas ventured away from his primary defensive assignment it was to help against a faltering perimeter defense. He could have been more judicious with help defense when assigned to good face-up shooters, but this was a breakdown at the team level. Athletically, there is no reason why Valanciunas should be any worse out on the floor than other centers.
This is where the addition of Carroll could really pay dividends. By improving the perimeter defense around Valanciunas, it's not difficult to envision the hard-working center becoming a safely above-average defensive anchor, certainly good enough to remain on the floor in clutch situations.
Area of improvement: Spot-up shooting
For all he does well, Valanciunas' offense needs diversity. As mentioned, Valanciunas has a nice touch from the foul line and his face-up shot from inside 15 feet is consistent. Beyond that range, his results are poor: NBA.com's shot data had him shooting just less than 34 percent from midrange in each of the past two seasons. While his touch seems good, Valanciunas is hesitant to let it fly and defenses know this. When the play doesn't call for Valanciunas to fly at the basket, his defender will ignore him out on the elbow.
When Valanciunas does get a look from the perimeter, he'll usually ball fake and/or hesitate even if the defender isn't there. And if a defender does fly out at Valanciunas, he'll almost gratefully put the ball on the floor and head for the basket. If Valanciunas could translate his touch to confidence on open midrange shots, it would help open up the offense and, perhaps, further bolster his late-game minutes. You'd like to see Valanciunas push his midrange success rate to more than 40 percent and take those shots without hesitation.
Area of improvement: Passing
In five games of EuroBasket competition, Valanciunas has but three assists. His NBA assist rates the past two seasons have landed in the ninth and fifth percentiles, respectively. And to dig even deeper, his rate of assist opportunities per pass (another SportVu-derived metric) has ranked in the sixth percentile the past two seasons. Clearly, Valanciunas is a finisher, not a creator. But it's not just that he doesn't pass often. When he does, it's not effective. This tunnel vision may also explain why, despite his offensive rebounding, per-touch efficiency, above-average turnover rate and post-up skills, Valanciunas' offensive RPM continues to lag in the lower fifth of the league.
If Valanciunas is going to become a go-to, low-block center that Casey and the Raptors can rely on in clutch situations and, more importantly, into the playoffs, Valanciunas must improve his ability to find shooters and cutters with productive passes. He averaged 0.7 assists per 36 minutes last season. You'd like to see that number climb over two. That more than anything could elevate Valanciunas from the Starter tier to next plateau: Upper-tier starter.
If Valanciunas does that, his offensive contribution would no longer negate what you hope will be improving defensive impact. Most importantly, it would further simplify Casey's lineup choices for this season when the fourth quarter rolls around. Because for all our fancy metrics, Valanciunas' key metric is simply minutes played.
Recruiting blueprints for Duke, Kentucky, other top programs
Last Wednesday marked the first time college coaches were allowed back on the road since the July evaluation period came to a close almost seven weeks ago. Much has changed since that time, as recruiting dominoes have dropped and plans adjusted in the process. Where do some of the top programs now stand with their 2016 classes? Travel schedules in the first few days of the fall recruiting period usually reflects their priorities.
Duke Blue Devils
Who they have: ESPN No. 2 Jayson Tatum gives them one of the most college-ready scorers in next year’s freshman class, whileFrank Jackson is a polished combo guard who will likely be able to offer minutes at both positions.
Where they were last week: Mike Krzyzewski was in to see ESPN No. 1 Harry Giles on Wednesday, the first day of the period, and also Wenyen Gabriel. Coach K and the staff did an in-home visit with Marques Bolden later in the week and had another such visit with Javin DeLaurier on Monday, when they extended a scholarship offer
The plan: With two perimeter players on board, they are now looking for a pair of frontcourt products to match. Giles is obviously the top target, and the Blue Devils are the perceived favorite. They had been on Bolden the entire month of July and made a big push for Gabriel in Las Vegas. DeLaurier is someone they monitored all month long, albeit with less consistency, and seems to be their contingency plan should they only get one of their top three.
Kentucky Wildcats
Who they have: The Wildcats already hold a pair of commitments to boost their frontline next season in ESPN 100 PF Sacha Killeya-Jones and New Zealand import Tai Wynyard.
Where they were last week: John Calipari saw both Miles Bridges and Malik Monk on the first day of the recruiting period and then had breakfast with Wenyen Gabriel on Thursday, conveniently located just a short drive from the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. On Monday, he visited with Bam Adebayo.
The plan: They’re looking for at least one more piece up front with an inside-out type forward -- Bridges has been the top target since Day 1, but like Duke, Kentucky also jumped in on the Gabriel sweepstakes in the final week of July, and at this point, it'll be happy with either. Adebayo may not fit the description, but if the Wildcats can get him, they won’t hesitate. Monk is a top target in the backcourt along with De’Aaron Fox (who will host Calipari for an in-home visit on Sept. 21 before taking his official for Big Blue Madness on Oct. 17) while Kobi Simmons and Rawle Alkins are also possibilities.
Arizona Wildcats
Who they have: The Wildcats previously had an early pledge fromT.J. Leaf before he decommitted last month and don’t currently hold any commitments in the 2016 class.
Where they were last week: It wasn't widely publicized, but Sean Miller was in to see ESPN No. 3 Josh Jackson last week and has now reportedly become one of his top suitors. He also saw fellow ESPN 100 products Andrew Jones andDe’Ron Davis, along with local product Mitchell Lightfoot. Miller also checked in with a couple youngsters in ESPN 60 big man Brandon McCoy and ESPN 25 No. 1 Marvin Bagley before seeing De’Aaron Fox and Javin DeLaurier early this week
The plan: Arizona is focused on a few specific guys right now. Jackson is the potential blue-chipper of the class, but Fox could play that role as well -- and of course a dream scenario is to pair the two together. The Wildcats are also in good shape with Jones, who was on their campus officially last week and got a follow-up visit from Miller last week. Up front, Davis and Lightfoot appear to be the two most likely targets, but they’re also working hard for DeLaurier and Lauri Markkanen, a 6-foot-9 forward from Finland.
Kansas Jayhawks
Who they have: The Jayhawks don’t yet own a commitment in the 2016 class, but they have been in this position before and have yet to come out empty handed.
Where they were last week: Bill Self and staff spent quite a bit of time in Texas last week. They met with both Schnider Herard and Marques Bolden on the first day of the period, watched ESPN 60 stud Jarred Vanderbilt a day later and then had a series of in-home visits with five-star prospects De’Aaron Fox, Jarrett Allen, T.J. Leaf and Josh Jackson. as well as Mitchell Lightfoot.
The plan: The biggest priority is the frontline, where the graduation of Perry Ellis will leave a void and the early allure of the NBA will undoubtedly intrigueCarlton Bragg and Cheick Diallo (assuming he gets eligible). So, don’t be surprised to see Kansas look for two immediate impact big men with Herald, Bolden, Allen, Leaf, Lightfoot and Udoka Azubuike all among their targets. The Jayhawks are much more secure on the perimeter, but that won’t stop them from going all-out on impact players like Jackson and Fox.
Michigan State Spartans
Who they have: Tom Izzo already has a pair of ESPN 100 pledges to his name. The first was Nick Ward, a wide-bodied 6-foot-8 southpaw post, and ESPN No. 17 Josh Langford, a power swingman and rapidly improving shot-maker.
Where they were last week: Izzo was a busy man in the first 24 hours of the fall recruiting period, as he visited Cassius Winston first thing Wednesday morning, headed to Huntington Prep for Miles Bridges and still saw Ward and Langford before the day was out. Bridges and Winston were both in East Lansing this weekend for visits that coincided with the announcement of Draymond Green’s $3 million donation to the university and a big win for the football team that followed an appearance on College GameDay.
The plan: At this point in the recruiting cycle, most programs have already had to move on to multiple contingency plans. Not Michigan State, though, which had Winston, Langford, Ward and Bridges targeted from Day 1. Also, don’t discount the possibility of the Spartans looking to make a run at Josh Jackson, a Detroit native, before it’s all said and done.
Texas Longhorns
Who they have: Texas picked up a commitment from Jacob Young, an athletic scoring guard, just prior to the opening of the July evaluation period and he is currently the only player to have made a verbal pledge.
Where they were last week: It was a big weekend in Austin with Javin DeLaurier on his official visit and both Andrew Jones and ESPN 60 PF Jarred Vanderbilt on campus unofficially. Before that though, Shaka Smart made it a point to visit Jones, Jarrett Allen and Clevon Brown. Smart is beginning this week with trips to see Amir Coffey and Braxton Blackwell.
The plan: The Longhorns have plenty of scholarships to hand out for next season, and size is the biggest priority. The trio of Allen, DeLaurier and James Banks have the staff’s attention right now and there’s room for at least two of them to see major minutes right away next season. Brown fits the mold of a versatile, complementary forward, similar to what Smart utilized so effectively at VCU, while Jones, Blackwell and Coffey are the Longhorns' primary perimeter targets at the moment.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Who they have: Roy Williams scored a very important commitment from ESPN No. 26 Tony Bradley a couple of weeks ago. Bradley not only gives them a legitimate low post scoring threat but also their first five-star pledge since the NCAA issues began.
Where they were last week: Williams was in Florida to check-in on Bradley on the first day allowed last week and also saw athletic combo-guard Seventh Woods that same day as well. A day later Williams was expected at Oak Hill Academy to see ESPN No. 1 Harry Giles, and then had an in-home visit with ESPN 100 swingman Brandon Robinson as well as ESPN 60 No. 2 Wendell Carter. Over the weekend the Tar Heels hosted ESPN No. 15 Rawle Alkins for an unofficial visit. Next week, they have an in-home visit with Javin DeLaurier on the schedule.
The plan: Bradley was the critical first domino, not just because he’s an immediate impact player, but because Carolina needed a big name to say yes in the wake of their academic scandal. Now they want to build on that momentum and Seventh Woods, who is also considering South Carolina and to a lesser extent Georgetown, may be the closest to making a decision. With Giles and DeLaurier, they appear to be fighting uphill battles, but have shown no signs of letting up, while Finnish import Markkanen is another possibility.
Other notables
-- NC State scored a pledge from ESPN No. 4 Dennis Smith Jr. and are now prioritizing a trio of other five-stars in Bam Adebayo, Udoka Azubuike and Rawle Alkins.
-- Fresh off his return from coaching the Puerto Rican national team, Louisville's Rick Pitino met with De’Aaron Fox, Andrew Jones, Brandon Robinson and junior college forward Bashir Ahmed.
-- Arizona State first year head coach Bobby Hurley had a sitdown meeting withThon Maker and was in to watch Mario Kegler.
-- Oregon head coach Dana Altman got face-to-face time with both T.J. Leaf and Malik Monk.
-- Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl met with Udoka Azubuike and Bam Adebayo.
--Wake Forest head coach Danny Manning was in to see both Adebayo and Harry Giles.
-- LSU saw De'Aaron Fox on the first day of the recruiting period.
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Scout's Take: ESPN 60 PG Jaylen Hands to UCLA
Point guard Jaylen Hands, ranked No. 31 in the ESPN 60, committed to the UCLA Bruins on Wednesday after also considering Arizona, USC, Stanford and California among others. Here's a look at what the four-star guard will bring to the Pac-12.Why he committed: Hands was very comfortable with the coaching staff, the system and the proximity to home.
"UCLA had been working Jaylen hard since Day 1," said Etop Udo-Ema, coach of the Compton Magic Elite Hands travel team that competed on the Adidas circuit. "Coach [Steve] Alford and [assistant] Coach [David] Grace did a great job and he was very comfortable. Also Jaylen liked their unique style of play, that included a great deal of freedom, especially for the guard position."
What he brings: Hands is a long, lean and explosive point guard who can score to the arc and create for himself or teammates off the bounce. He has a good mid-range game and floater as well. Hands has great court vision and can deliver the ball with either hand. Hands is also excellent making plays coming off pick-and-rolls. He has a great feel and makes the right decision as he attacks. Once Hands adds strength, expect his already highly productive game to go to the next level of production.
How he fits: Hands will provide Alford with a primary ball handler, playmaker and electric finisher on the break. Hands can run the halfcourt offense especially in pick-and-roll situations from the top or wing areas of the floor. He can make plays for himself or teammates when the play breaks down and at end-of-clock situations. Hands simply makes the Bruins offense lethal because of the variety of ways he can create once he is inside the heart of the defense. He has all the tools to be the point guard of the future for the Bruins, and provides a quality point guard if Lonzo Ball (No. 11 in the ESPN 100 for 2016) is one-and-done. If they play together, Hands will play off the ball because he is capable of putting up big scoring numbers.
Who he reminds us of: Hands, length, explosiveness, and the ability to score and distribute reminds us at times of a cross between NBA guards Russell Westbrook and Tyler Ennis -- with continued development.
How the class is shaping up: Hands joins two other in-state prospects in the Bruins class of 2017. Four-star center and fellow ESPN 60 selection center Jalen Hill, and three-star small forward Li Angelo Ball.
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Twin illing: Markieff Morris will miss playing alongside Marcus
Markieff Morris locked eyes with his twin brother, Marcus, and that was all the siblings needed.
After making eye contact on their way down the floor, the two did what they have done probably hundreds of occasions messing around in a practice gym, but this time it came against the Los Angeles Lakers in a real NBA game in November: an alley-oop from one brother to another.
Late in the third quarter, Marcus took one dribble toward the paint from the top of the key to draw in the defense and promptly lobbed it to Markieff, who was lurking alone at the rim and flushed it down easily with two hands. Markieff later finished the game with 23 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in a winning effort, capping off one of the finest outings of his career.
This marked one of 16 alley-oops that Markieff has thrown down over the past two seasons. But here's the thing about that: nine of those 16 have been assisted by one player, his twin brother Marcus. Keep in mind, Marcus is a 6-foot-9 forward, not a point guard. It gets more interesting. In his career, Markieff has played at a near All-Star level with his brother on the floor. But without his brother, Markieff has performed no better than average statistically.
Last week, the NBA fined Markieff Morris $10,000 for publicly demanding a trade away from the Phoenix Suns, who had traded Marcus in July to the Detroit Pistons.
Perhaps this is more than just a brother lashing out. Perhaps Markieff knows he's not the same player without his sibling by his side.
We've all heard about the twin connection at one time or another. There are countless anecdotes that suggest there are psychic powers between twins -- especially identical twins like the Morrises. I have my own story. While on a chairlift on a Vermont mountain in eighth grade, my twin sister abruptly began sobbing without provocation; minutes later, she found out from a friend that I had just broken my humerus bone into two pieces during a skiing accident on the other side of the mountain.
Science doesn't back up the twin telepathy theory. The Morris twins probably don't have psychic powers, and they may not be able to read each other's minds.
But it's clear that Markieff and Marcus have a heightened connection on the court. Last season, Markieff Morris averaged 18.3 points, 7.1 rebounds and shot 49.9 percent from the floor and 37.7 percent from downtown while playing next to his brother. When he played without his twin by his side, those numbers dropped to 17 points and seven rebounds with a mediocre 44.1 percent shooting from the floor and 28.2 percent shooting from deep.
Markieff's player efficiency rating is 17.6 with his brother on the court. Without him, it was 14.8, or slightly below average.
That trend has continued his entire career up to this point. Marcus was traded midseason from Houston to Phoenix in 2012-13, reuniting the brothers on the court for the first time since their college days as Kansas Jayhawks. Since then, Markieff has shot 49.6 percent with his brother on court and just 44.1 percent with Marcus sidelined. Markieff's PER has gone from 18.3 to 14.4.
The Twin Connection
Markieff Morris
MINS
PER
FG%
3FG%
FT%
PTS
REB
AST
TS%
Marcus ON 2664 18.3 .496 .361 .791 18.5 7.4 2.7 56.6
Marcus OFF 2886 14.4 .441 .313 .763 16.3 7.8 2.4 50.7
So, what changes? Let's take a look at splits from last season. Markieff shot better with Marcus on the floor partly because he took smarter shots closer to the basket. With Marcus on the floor, 27 percent of Markieff's shots came at the rim, where he shot 63.4 percent. That dropped to 23 percent and 56.7 percent respectively when Marcus rode the pine, according to NBA.com data.
Furthermore, we find that Markieff is assisted on 62.4 percent of his field goals with Marcus on the floor, compared to just 53.4 percent when Marcus is sidelined, signaling that Markieff may not be going one-on-one as much with his brother out there.
That could just be random, but fancy player-tracking data suggests there's more to it than pure blind luck. Remember all those alley-oops from Marcus to Markieff? These twins have some serious chemistry. Markieff shot a scorching 58.4 percent from the floor off of Marcus' passes compared to just 46 percent from all other teammates. In fact, eight of Markieff's teammates fed him the ball more than 100 times, and of those, Marcus' passes were the only ones that generated a field goal percentage of more than 50 percent.
MARKIEFF MORRIS FG% BY PASSER
2014-15 Season
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The trend bounces back the other way as well. Marcus shot 50 percent off Markieff's passes last season, the highest percentage of any of Marcus' passers. In fact, Marcus shot a blistering 19-of-34 (55.9 percent) from downtown when fed by Markieff; he shot just 93-of-279 (33.3 percent) on all other 3s. Now, that's some brotherly love.
And that's not far from the truth. The Morris brothers exhibited synergy that other NBA brothers don't have. In a story by NPR in February, Phoenix head coach Jeff Hornacek said the Morris brothers were much kinder to each other compared to the Dragic brothers (Goran and Zoran, who were traded to Miami last season).
"[During practice] Goran and Zoran are probably more typical brothers, because they hit each other," Hornacek said. "But the Morrises, they tend to let each other score, and not guard, and make each other look good. So they're different in that way."
The numbers prove that Marcus made Markieff look good on the court. But the brothers are no longer coworkers in Phoenix. As part of a salary dump engineered by GM Ryan McDonough during the LaMarcus Aldridge chase this summer, Marcus was traded to Detroit along with Reggie Bullock and Danny Granger for a future second-round pick. The Morris brothers were publicly upset about it, but most siblings don't even get the chance to play together. Just ask the Barrys (Jon, Brent and Drew) or the Grants (Harvey and Horace).
While Markieff may have come off sounding entitled and unprofessional in his Sept. 3 tweet in which he wrote his future wouldn't be in Phoenix, there's real evidence that Markieff has more than one reason to worry about his brother leaving. It was hard to tell Markieff and Marcus apart as teammates, but 2014-15 Markieff may not look anything like 2015-16 Markieff with his brother in Detroit.