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2015 predictions: Teddy Bridgewater will 'graduate' to elite
The 2015 season is about to start, and that means it's prediction time!
Anybody can predict the MVP or Comeback Player of the Year, but we like to do things a little differently and dive a little deeper into some of the more obscure categories and areas. Who is going to be a bust at QB? Who will be the most elusive runner? Who will look best while switching positions?
Here are some of the more unusual categories we've pinpointed:
Quarterback who won't live up to expectations -- Jameis Winston
Winston seemed to get something of a pass during the pre-draft evaluation process. Everybody was so caught up with a guy who did "pro-style things" that nobody thought to check if he did them well or consistently. The preseason has shown more of the same: some beautiful, textbook passes over the middle into tight windows, with some head-scratching, disaster decisions. With the Tampa Bay offensive line struggling to keep him clean, this is likely to be a bumpy first season for Winston, who is not built for conservative, ball-protecting offense.
"The Graduate" at QB: A guy who will move into the elite debate based on trends -- Teddy Bridgewater
With a rookie quarterback, at times all you're looking for is for him to show improvement. Although Bridgewater was merely average over the first half of the year, he led the NFL in PFF grade over the final five games. The only player to have a higher passing grade was Aaron Rodgers. Over that span, Bridgewater was accurate on a ridiculous 82.5 percent of his passes under pressure, and he played like a guy for whom the game had slowed down. In preseason, he looked to be equally poised and calm in the pocket, and we could see him take a huge leap forward in year two.
NFL's top deep threat -- Dez Bryant
It's easy to forget about guys such as Bryant when focusing on deep threats because Bryant is such a dynamic threat everywhere, whereas players such as Mike Wallace and Torrey Smith are far more obvious one-trick ponies. But Bryant is so dominant across the board that he is arguably the league's premier deep threat too. Last season, eight of Bryant's 16 touchdown catches came on targets of 20 or more air yards. He caught 15 of 29 such targets (second-best rate in the league) and didn't drop any. Throw in the infamous playoff catch/no catch, and you could have added a season-defining play to that mix.
Coveted elusive runner of the year -- Marshawn Lynch
We think of elusive as being evasive -- able to make guys miss in space and dance around the backfield. Trent Richardson is evasive, but it doesn't help him get anywhere useful for his offense. Lynch is the most elusive runner in the game because full-on Beastmode is near impossible to bring down. Lynch forces missed tackles at a greater rate than anyone else in the game, with 101 last season, which is 16 more than any other runner. The playoffs alone saw him add another 29 on only 68 touches. He might not dance, but good luck catching and stopping Lynch.
Single most targeted player -- Calvin Johnson
This seems a little strange now that the Detroit Lions have Golden Tate -- a fine receiver in his own right and the perfect foil for Johnson -- but there is something about Megatron that just causes Matthew Stafford to gravitate toward him. It's easy to see why: Johnson is the most physically imposing receiver in the game and must look open all the time. Heck, even when he doesn't look open, he must look like he can probably win the ball anyway. Last season, despite missing time and Tate's tearing it up in his absence, Johnson was still the most targeted receiver in the game on a per-snap basis, as he played just 5.7 snaps per target.
Best conversion: position or role switch -- Khalil Mack
Last season, Mack -- as a rookie -- was arguably the best run-defender in the league and certainly one of the best. At his position, his PFF grade against the run was more than twice as good as the next-best player's, and he could set the edge like no other linebacker. His pass rush was just OK, though, as he notched 54 total pressures but only four sacks. If this preseason is anything to go by, Mack has added that string to his bow. He notched nine total pressures (including two sacks) in just 90 snaps and wreaked havoc on the Arizona offensive line in particular.
Best unit in all of football -- Seattle secondary
There are a few top units in the NFL, but it's hard to look beyond the Legion of Boom. Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are all in the argument for the best players at their positions (if you separate strong and free safety), and together, they form a perfect balance. The unit as a whole is so good it can line up with very little disguise, compared to other coverage units, because it is just better at executing than the opposing offense. Now, will Chancellor show up?
Rookie taken outside the top 10 who can be this year's Aaron Donald -- Henry Anderson
For the first time, PFF graded the entire FBS last season, and one of the stars was Anderson. In fact, Anderson graded better than Leonard Williams -- that's how good he was. Williams posted 50 total pressures and a plus-40.1 grade against the run. Anderson notched 57 total pressures and a plus-39.9 grade against the run on almost 200 fewer snaps. Anderson wasn't drafted until the third round (93rd overall) but already is starting for the Colts and looks ready to pick up where he left off.
Rookie taken in the top 10 who is most likely to be a bust -- Ereck Flowers
Flowers is the player whose first year and beyond might be the bumpiest. He has been forced to start at left tackle for the Giants, after the injury to Will Beatty, and that will expose his biggest weakness (pass protection) to assault. He has run blocked pretty well in preseason, but he surrendered six total pressures. Only nine tackles had a worse pass-blocking grade.
Best pass-rusher in NFL (interior and/or edge) -- J.J. Watt
Watt is the best football player on the planet, and his specialty is pass rush. Whether he lines up inside or outside, he will be coming after your quarterback, and it won't take him long to get to him. Watt had 116 total pressures last season. That's more than PFF has recorded by any player at any position since 2007. On his own, Watt knocked the quarterback down more than several NFL teams did, and he nearly broke the NFL sack record -- again -- as an interior defender. Watt is the single most destructive pass-rushing weapon the NFL can deploy.
Scout's Take: ESPN 100 PG Xavier Simpson to Michigan
Michigan landed ESPN 100 point guard Xavier Simpson on Wednesday, choosing the Wolverines over Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa State and Miami. The No. 66 player in the class of 2016 from Lima, Ohio stopped by Ann Arbor for a final look this past weekend, according to sources, and Michigan jumped into the drivers seat and secured the commitment.
Here's a look at what the four-star lead guard will bring to the Big Ten:
Why he committed: "My relationship with the coaching staff is very strong and my family thinks it is a good fit," Simpson told ESPN. "I know Michigan can take me to the next level on and off the court."
What he brings: Simpson is a true point guard who is tough, smart and very efficient. He can run the team and get teammates involved. Simpson will not hesitate to attack the rim and take and can make a big shot when needed. Simpson will set the tone defensively with his excellent ball pressure, and also brings determination and passion for the game.
"I bring leadership and hard work," he added. "I am a winner."
How he fits: The Wolverines play tough man and zone defense and Simpson has the ability to pressure while containing the ball. He is a great front line defender in a team defensive scheme. Offensively, Simpson will fit the Wolverine scheme with his ability to run the offense. He has excellent feel for the game and matching basketball IQ. Simpson will make-high level plays coming off ball screens and keep the ball moving within patterns and will get the ball to right teammate with his good decision-making.
Who he reminds us of: Simpson patterns his game off another point guard from Lima, Ohio: Tyler Ulis (who moved and played his high school basketball in Illinois), now the floor general for the Kentucky Wildcats. He also has some of the same qualities as NBA superstar Chris Paul becuase of his leadership, ability to get teammates involved along and the ability to knock down open shots. We see bits and pieces of both Ulis and Paul in Simpson's game but the comparison we settled on is former Utah great and NBA veteran point guard Andre Miller, who is now with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
How the class is shaping up: Simpson joins centers Jon Teske and Austin Davis along with shooting guard Ibi Watson. Simpson, Teske and Watson are all Ohioians and Davis is the lone committed Wolverine from the state of Michigan.
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Scout's Take: ESPN 100 PG Dennis Smith Jr. to NC State
Dennis Smith Jr., the No. 1 point guard in the class of 2016, ended his recruitment Thursday night by committing to Mark Gottfried and the North Carolina State Wolfpack over Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Wake Forest and Louisville. Here’s a look at what the five-star point guard will bring to the Pack: Why he committed: "Staying home was important to me, and State has been recruiting me since my sophomore year and made me a priority, " Smith said.
What he brings: Smith will provide strength, athleticism and scoring with the ability to get teammates involved. He is a terror in the open court, with the ability to flush on taller defenders with ease. Smith is a high-level playmaker who simply overpowers smaller and finesse-oriented point guards on both ends of the floor.
How he fits: Smith will make the Wolfpack's fast break lethal from the second he takes the court. He will be a threat in their UCLA guard-cut offense from a variety of positions within the offense. Cutting off the high post, posting up smaller point guards and coming off the down screen will all be great actions for Smith, in addition to having the freedom to attack his defender in isolation and mismatch situations.
"I like the fit," Smith said of the Wolfpack, "because they run the UCLA series which I am familiar with, and they allow freedom too. Coach G wants to run and I do too."
Who he reminds us of: The No. 4 overall player in the class of 2016, Smith reminds us of NBA guard Eric Bledsoe with his strength, scoring and the ability to create for himself and teammates.
How the class is shaping up: Smith is the first Wolfpack pledge for the class of 2016, but Gottfried is also in hot pursuit of another in-state stud in five-star frontcourt monster Bam Adebayo.
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How Phil Jackson and the Knicks can avoid disaster
Let's face it, some elements of ESPN's Summer Forecast are more subjective than others. Today's reveal of the balloting for this season's Team Turmoil reflects the most subjective of the different categories for which we vote. In effect, we are trying to psychoanalyze an entire organization based on events that may or may not happen. But it's a lot of fun and in all seriousness, the voting says a lot about how teams are perceived entering a new season.
NBA Summer Forecast
Which team will face the greatest degree of unwanted upheaval in the months to come? There are three primary elements that ensure a high ranking in the turmoil standings: 1. Teams that play in the biggest markets with added exposure to magnify any missteps. 2. A roster and/or a coaching staff comprised of volatile personalities. 3. A high payroll combined with low expectations.
It's a testament to the interesting mix of personalities the Sacramento Kings have brought together that they finished as the runaway leader in this year's turmoil forecast. After all, the Kings play in a small market and their just-over-the-cap payroll ranks in the bottom third of the league. And expectations are so low that I think Sacramento has an excellent chance to beat its forecast of 31 wins. But when you bring in Rajon Rondo to run alongside DeMarcus Cousinsand ask them to play for a give-no-quarter Hall of Fame coach in George Karl, well, it's a sports writer's dream. If it works, it's a great story. If it doesn't work, it's still a great story.
It's the second team on the list that strikes me as the most interesting, however. The New York Knicks are always intriguing, though I've often been grateful to be based in the Midwest when reading of their travails over the decades. And make no mistake, save for the Pat Riley era and an exhilarating yet too-brief surge by the Bernard King-Hubie Brown teams, it's been more or less constant turmoil in Gotham since New York last won the NBA title in 1973. Entering the second season of Phil Jackson's rebuild, I suspect we're going to learn a lot about whether Jackson is the right guy to finally get the Knicks over the hump.
On paper, the Knicks would look like they are headed for the upper reaches of the 2016 draft -- except they won't actually have a first-rounder next season. Their pick is a casualty of a dizzying array of trades over the years that go back to when Carmelo Anthony was originally acquired by New York, and later Andrea Bargnani was brought in from Toronto. If New York improves on the court this season, the missing pick won't be a major story line. But if the Knicks are as bad as projected -- the forecast had them at 25 wins -- then the absence of a premium pick will hurt in all the wrong places.
The loss of that pick isn't on Jackson, as the aforementioned deals went down before he took over. What is on Jackson is the bulk of this year's roster. As Charley Rosen pointed out in his mesmerizing series of chats with Jackson, 13 of the 17 players the Knicks took to camp last season are gone. Jackson will be overseeing a roster almost entirely of his construction, playing a system he insists upon that is directed by a coach in Derek Fisher who had zero experience when hired.
No one, including Jackson, would declare the 2015-16 Knicks a finished product. Nevertheless, some forward progress needs to be shown, and not the on-paper progress that 25 wins would represent after last season's franchise-record 65 losses. This has been stated many times, but it's important to remember when framing the Knicks' situation: Jackson is three weeks shy of his 70th birthday and his star player -- coming off of injury -- will be nearly 32 by the end of next season. While Jackson has plenty of time for a methodical rebuild of the Knicks and the establishing of a template of basketball operations that can be sustained after he retires, he has limited time to turn things around while Anthony remains a star-level player.
That turnaround won't be completed this season. Yet you can argue that the essential next-step to accelerate the process has to be preceded by a surprising showing in 2015-16. Because while the Knicks should be able to pursue anelite-level player in 2016 free agency, most teams around the league will be able to do the same given the spike in the salary cap. If this season is as bad as last season, how would Jackson entice the likes of Kevin Durant to take the team's money? Meanwhile, Anthony's clock keeps ticking, and the draft will come and go without the Knicks adding an impact talent.
Even a run at .500 and a playoff spot in the East would not guarantee the Knicks a splash addition next summer. But as we saw in July when Greg Monroe -- a possible Knicks target -- landed in small market Milwaukee, the perception of forward momentum has cachet in the marketplace. That is what the Knicks are playing for this season. In that light, the pessimistic forecasts might not be a bad thing. My system currently has the Knicks at 23 wins. The forecast was at 25. An estimate compiled from Real plus-minus (RPM) is for just 22. I've seen one other, more optimistic projection-based forecast for 30 wins.
None of those outcomes would move the needle. but the low expectations are an opportunity. If the Knicks were expected to be .500 and did so, we'd all yawn. But now if New York makes a playoff run, we'll be applauding Jackson's moves from coast to coast, and entering the summer with eager anticipation.
We've got a few weeks to dissect what has to happen on the court for the Knicks to outperform our preseason analysis. The nutshell of all that work will be that New York has to be what Jackson's teams have often been: A whole that far exceeds the sum of its parts. As just as a quick thought experiment to illustrate my point, pull up the roster of the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers. Now remove Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal from the list. That team was the second edition of a team that won three straight championships. It's the ability of the triangle offense to extract efficient performance from role players that has set Jackson's teams apart, even if those players haven't worked elsewhere.
Of course, the historic greatness of Jackson's elite players hasn't hurt. As Jackson searches for another one of those players and hopes that Anthony can hang on at something close to that level, we'll bide our time this season by following New York's role players. Robin Lopez, Kyle O'Quinn, Kristaps Porzingis, Langston Galloway, Jose Calderon, Jerian Grant, Derrick Williams, Lou Amundson, Arron Afflalo and Lance Thomas are all Jackson guys. Many of them have replacement-level forecasts, or worse. Yet, if they complement Anthony and the Knicks become competitive, then we'll know Jackson has a bead on getting this executive thing figured out.
If the Knicks are as bad as last season? That's when the turmoil begins.
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Coaches Roundtable: Coach K stealing Calipari's thunder?
1. Kentucky Wildcats coach John Calipari goes into the Hall of Fame this weekend while Duke Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski just secured a commitment from another top-20 prospect. Have the defending national champions reclaimed their perch atop the college basketball world?
Fraschilla: I don't think Duke is overshadowing Kentucky. If anything, Duke has adopted the Kentucky model. Coach K was not high on one-and-done guys for a long time. John changed the model. There are very few programs -- maybe it's only Duke and Kentucky -- who can succeed that way. They're the two gold standards. I don't think one program has an advantage over the other. I think it's fun to see them battle back and forth at the top of these recruiting charts because it keeps both programs strong, and that's a good thing for college basketball.
Greenberg: The funny thing is, Cal used to be the villain with one-and-dones. You've got to understand the culture of the game and use the rules to your advantage. Cal understood that early and created a model. The model has been successful. John has been to four Final Fours, won a national championship and had 18 first-round NBA draft picks. Duke has been able to mimic that model in its own way, and now it's building on it. The perception used to be that one-and-dones were bad for college basketball, and now it's a part of the culture. What Coach K has accomplished is remarkable, but to build a program at UMass and to rebuild a Memphis program to one play away from a national championship. And now what he's done at Kentucky. Imagine if he had been at Kentucky for 30 years?
Dakich: I don't think there's a day of the week that you can put Calipari in Coach K's class. You have one guy who's been at Kentucky and has a championship, and another guy has been at Duke for 30 years and has five. I think we give Calipari a lot of credit by comparing him to Coach K. He has a system, it's great, he wins a lot of games, but at that level, the only thing you're thinking about is national titles. Whether that's right or wrong, you can't put Cal in that class.
Fraschilla: One of the things I've admired about Coach K through the years is his ability to adjust. Some coaches do the same thing for 25 years, but whether it's offense, defense or recruiting, no one's been more of a chameleon in a positive way than Coach K. That speaks to his success.
Dakich: Calipari is smart enough to understand he was playing from in front. [George] Steinbrenner knew what the Yankees were. Cal knew what Kentucky was. That's not bad. It's smart. The difference is, Krzyzewski has been in the same place. He's taken this job, and within his own organization, made it great. That's amazing to me. That's got to be one of the most difficult things in coaching.
2. This offseason has again been filled with off-court issues, whether it's underage drinking at Indiana or Eron Harris' drunk driving arrest at Michigan State. How difficult is it to manage players when you're not around them as often?
Greenberg: You can't hold your players' hands 24/7, but I think that you've got to have absolutes, core beliefs and non-negotiables within your program. Your culture has got to be bigger than one player. In the offseason, you're relying on your upperclassmen and their leadership. The times we worry most about our players are when we don't have our hands on them. In the summer, you have fewer opportunities. Boys are going to be boys, but there must be a consequence. Once that consequence is in place, it's got to be enforced, and it's got to be real.
Fraschilla: I did my very best to recruit high-character guys, and I felt like what we asked them to do in our program was difficult and demanding so they had to understand that culture of accountability. Having said that, these are 18-year-old kids and they screw up all the time. That's part of the process of helping these guys grow up. I think of things I did from a discipline standpoint 20 years ago, and I talk to those former players now, and they thank me for that stuff. If it can happen at a Michigan State with Harris, it's just the nature of the way young people are in this culture. You do your best as a coach to set the tone, but we deal with adversity off the court all the time. That's in the job description.
Dakich: There really isn't a coach right now that is allowed to be a tough disciplinarian. Fran was talking about kids thanking him, I think of things that I did that would probably land me in jail. Every time a kid does screw up, it's an opportunity to make your team and your culture better. You can talk your way through certain things, but that doesn't get it done when kids know better. We've seen the public outcry from a bunch of people who have never led a team. Those people have the biggest voice on how you're supposed to lead a team, and that to me is utterly ridiculous.
Fraschilla: When I was a young coach, I was willing to lose games to not lose my culture.
Dakich: I'm out of coaching because of that. There isn't a coaching staff in America that I would say, "They're really tough on discipline," because I don't think you can be. This culture makes discipline very difficult.
Greenberg: We glorify guys by saying, "He's a players' coach." Players are not being held accountable from a young age like they have been in the past.
3. Several high-profile teams including LSU, Kansas, Louisville and Michigan State took international trips this summer. What kind of impact do those trips have on a team's season?
Dakich: I don't think they matter at all. They're great for recruiting. They can bond teams together. Coaches can talk about why they're so important, but what you do in the summer and fall doesn't matter by the time you get to Jan. 1. They're fantastic experiences for everyone who gets to go, but once you get into conference play, does that trip matter? Hell no, in my opinion.
Greenberg: For teams that take those trips, do you have to worry about burning out? There are benefits when it comes to developing relationships and a trust. There's a little concern about when do you reboot your team and get back going?
Dakich: Back in the day, we couldn't see players in the summer. Now that you can, it almost makes the trip less important.
Fraschilla: Like any other part of coaching, these trips are an art form. When I was at Manhattan, my philosophy was, we kill them from September to March as it is. We were going to get good practice time in and make guys better individually, but these games will never be seen nationally. We wanted bonding and game experience, but I did not want to burn them out.
His numbers are better than Mullin, Mourning and Rodman. Why isn't Jack Sikma in HOF?
In the 1985 version of his annual Baseball Abstract, sabermetrics pioneer Bill James introduced the "Keltner List" as a method of assessing whether players belong in the Hall of Fame. The Keltner List, a series of questions summarizing a player's career, has been adopted by basketball.
Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight even used it in a series for ESPN Insider a couple of years ago.
Today, though, I want to focus on a specific question posed by the Keltner List:
"Is [this player] the very best player in [NBA] history who is not in the Hall of Fame?"
Since Artis Gilmore earned his long-overdue spot in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame in 2011, there hasn't been a clear answer to the question. Excluding players new to the ballot, I think there is one player who now stands above his peers as the best overlooked by the Hall of Fame: Former Seattle SuperSonics and Milwaukee Bucks center Jack Sikma.
The Case for Sikma
Note: In full disclosure, I am a little biased here. Sikma helped lead my favorite team, the Sonics, to their only championship in 1979. Having settled in the Seattle area, he later worked for the team as an assistant coach at the same time I did while covering the Sonics for their website. So as much as possible, I'm going to rely on numbers to make the case for me. Though Sikma isn't necessarily tops in every important category, he ranks among the leading non-Hall of Famers in several of them.
Let's start with Win Shares, the James-inspired measure of player value that Basketball-Reference.com has tracked through 1977-78 and estimated before that, making it the most complete list. Among eligible Hall of Famers who have not been selected, Sikma ranks third (and 51st overall):
Sikma by Win Shares
Player Years First Last Win Shares
Buck Williams 17 1981-82 1997-98 120.1
Horace Grant 17 1987-88 2003-04 118.2
Jack Sikma 14 1977-78 1990-91 112.5
Terry Porter 17 1985-86 2001-02 110.4
Larry Nance 13 1981-82 1993-94 109.6
Because of the way it credits 3-point attempts for their spacing effect, my wins above replacement player (WARP) stat is not quite as favorable to Sikma. He ranks a bit lower despite the fact that I've only calculated WARP back through 1977-78, the first season player turnovers were tracked (and, coincidentally, Sikma's rookie season):
Jack Sikma by WARP
Player Years First Last WARP
Tim Hardaway 13 1989-90 2002-03 148.7
Mark Jackson 17 1987-88 2003-04 138.6
Chris Webber 15 1993-94 2007-08 136.2
Terry Porter 17 1985-86 2001-02 134.7
Larry Nance 13 1981-82 1993-94 131.1
Mookie Blaylock 13 1989-90 2001-02 129.1
Jack Sikma 14 1977-78 1990-91 124.5
For a last measure of player value, we can look at Basketball-Reference.com's value over replacement player (VORP) stat, calculated from their box plus-minus statistic.
Here, Sikma ranks 44th in NBA history, though there are a few more eligible players not in the Hall of Fame ahead of him:
Jack Sikma by VORP
Player Years From To VORP
Larry Nance 13 1981-82 1993-94 47.9
Chris Webber 15 1993-94 2007-08 45.9
Vlade Divac 16 1989-90 2004-05 45.3
Eddie Jones 14 1994-95 2007-08 45.1
Horace Grant 17 1987-88 2003-04 44.4
Jeff Hornacek 14 1986-87 2099-00 43.2
Jack Sikma 14 1977-78 1990-91 42.0
Each all-in-one stat comes up with a slightly different list. But nobody's ahead of Sikma on all three of them. The strongest argument for Sikma is probably looking at All-Star appearances. As we lament each February, the All-Star process doesn't always pick the best 24 players in the league.
Still, it's a good way to capture how players were viewed in their time. Sikma was chosen for every All-Star Game from 1978-79, his second season, through 1984-85.
And while that total of seven might not sound remarkable, only one eligible player not in the Hall of Fame has more All-Star selections: 1950s center Larry Foust, who made eight appearances in an era where there were typically more than twice as many spots on the All-Star roster (20) as teams (eight).
In fact, as Justin Kubatko noted in looking at Sikma's Hall of Fame candidacy earlier this year, Jo Jo White's selection means every eligible Hall of Fame candidate with precisely seven All-Star appearances save Sikma has been chosen. Even if we expand the criteria in either direction to look at players with between six and eight All-Star selections, 33 out of 38 eligible players have made the Hall of Fame.
As a result, Basketball-Reference.com's Hall of Fame probability suggests an 87 percent chance of Sikma being chosen based on his statistics and honors. The aforementioned Foust is the only eligible player with a higher Hall of Fame probability who has not been chosen.
Sikma not in consideration?
Given all that, it's strange that Sikma has never even been chosen a finalist by the Hall of Fame's selection committee. Perhaps his career doesn't resonate with voters. While Sikma won a championship and went to a pair of Finals with the Sonics, they came during one of the league's most forgettable eras. He played NAIA college basketball at tiny Illinois Wesleyan University and spent his entire NBA career in the outposts of Seattle and Milwaukee. To the extent Sikma is part of the basketball zeitgeist at this point, it's mostly because of his famous blonde perm from the 1980s.
In part, that's probably explained by the fact that Sikma was very good for a long period of time rather than great. He never made an All-NBA team, since the two center spots were locked up by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Moses Malone during his prime. (Hall of Famer Robert Parish, in 1981-82, was the only center to displace them between 1978-79 and 1985-86.) Sikma did finish in the top 10 in MVP voting twice, peaking at seventh in 1978-79.
Some of this, too, can surely be explained by the Hall of Fame's opaque voting process and nebulous standards. When compared to players elected over the past five years, Sikma's core résumé compares favorably. (See chart at bottom)
That might not necessarily make Sikma the very best eligible player who's not in the Hall of Fame, but it certainly makes him a deserving candidate for enshrinement in Springfield, Massachusetts.
Recent HOFers and Sikma
Player Induction All-Star Win Shares
Artis Gilmore* 2011 11 189.7
Reggie Miller 2012 5 174.4
Gary Payton 2013 9 145.5
Chet Walker 2012 7 117.4
Dikembe Mutombo 2015 8 117.0
Chris Mullin 2011 5 93.1
Dennis Rodman 2011 2 89.8
Alonzo Mourning 2014 7 89.7
Mitch Richmond 2014 6 79.3
Spencer Haywood 2015 5 78.5
Bernard King 2013 4 75.4
Jamaal Wilkes 2012 3 71.3
Roger Brown* 2013 4 65.3
Mel Daniels* 2012 7 64.8
Jo Jo White 2015 7 54.0
Ralph Sampson 2012 4 20.1
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Jack Sikma - 7 112.5
Best of the visits: All eyes on Michigan State
College football season is in full swing -- but that also means official visit season for basketball recruiting is also in full swing. It started a couple of weeks ago, picked up a little bit last week, and will continue to pick up steam this weekend. Moreover, beginning this past Wednesday, college coaches were allowed to go out on the road and watch prospects and potential recruits for the first time since July. What that has done is made it clear which schools are prioritizing which players; if a school hasn’t scheduled an in-home visit or an official visit for a prospect -- and the player is ready to go through the process -- it’s likely other players are higher on that school’s board. That wrinkle has only heightened the importance of this weekend, so let’s take a look at the big storylines heading into the next few days.
Michigan State hosts two key targets
The epicenter of visits this weekend will be East Lansing, which will be the destination for five-star forward Miles Bridges (No. 8 in ESPN 100) and four-star point guard Cassius Winston (No. 29). Bridges was one of the biggest stars of the summer, and cemented his status among the elite frontcourt players in the country. This will be his second official visit, after going to Indiana in late August. Michigan State and Kentucky are considered the frontrunners for Bridges. Winston is down to three schools, with this being his final official visit after cutting Michigan from his list earlier in the week. He has previously visited Stanford and Pittsburgh, and all three of his finalists visited with him this week. Michigan State is in a good spot with the in-state point guard, and Winston told ESPN that decision is likely coming later this month or in early October.
Texas looks to make a splash
Shaka Smart and his staff hit the recruiting trail very hard after taking over in Austin last spring — but the Longhorns only have one commitment for 2016 so far: scoring guard Jacob Young. This weekend could go a long way toward establishing some more momentum in this class. Four-star forward Javin Montgomery-DeLaurier (No. 45) will be on campus for his official visit, after taking a trip to Notre Dame last weekend. Stanford and Duke have visits scheduled for October, while Arizona and North Carolina are also in the mix. Andrew Jones, one of the biggest risers of the summer, will take an unofficial visit to Austin on Saturday -- his second trip to Texas’ campus since the beginning of August. Jones visited Arizona last weekend, and is still considering Louisville -- who will conduct an in-home visit with him on Friday -- as well as Baylor, Texas A&M and others.
Five-star guard takes final scheduled official visit
Kobi Simmons saw his ranking drop a little bit after the summer, but he’s still a five-star prospect (No. 18) and one of the best point guards in the country. At one point, Simmons was considered a heavy Kentucky lean, but Ohio State has made up plenty of ground -- and the Buckeyes are expected to get him on campus this weekend. After what Thad Matta and his staff did with D’Angelo Russell last season, Simmons is attracted to the Buckeyes. This will be Simmons’ final visit, after taking a trip to UNLV last weekend and Kentucky the final weekend in August. Signs pointed to Simmons making a decision after his Ohio State visit, but the timetable has been in flux.
Maryland hoping to keep momentum
Maryland was one of the big winners of Labor Day weekend in terms of recruiting, landing ESPN 100 prospect Kevin Huerter (No. 41) on Monday. He joins underrated ESPN 100 point guard Anthony Cowan Jr. in the Terrapins’ 2016 class, a group that will be counted on to follow in the footsteps of a preseason top-five team. What’s next for Mark Turgeon and the Terps? An official visit from five-star forward Wenyen Gabriel (No. 23), arguably the biggest riser of the summer AAU period. Gabriel is down to five schools, and Maryland will get his first official visit. He is also considering Kentucky, Duke, Connecticut and Providence -- and all five of his finalists conducted in-home visits with him this week. He’s a sought-after prospect and is moving through the process.
In-home visits for elite players
While campus visits are the headliners for the weekend, there are several elite prospects conducting in-home visits in the coming days. Thon Maker, who is an unranked five-star prospect due to the fact he plays high school basketball outside the United States, will host Arizona State on Friday. The Sun Devils are considered one of the favorites for his commitment. Maker meets with Notre Dame on Monday. Electrifying guard Malik Monk (No. 5) will have an in-home visit with Oregon on Friday, after meeting with Kentucky and Arkansas earlier this week. De’Aaron Fox (No. 7), who cut his list to seven last month, will welcome in Kansas for a home visit.
Notes
-- A pair of Big East schools are welcoming in ESPN 100 guards this weekend. Providence will host Shamorie Ponds (No. 42), who is down to four schools. He has already visited Creighton and St. John’s, and will also visit Minnesota next weekend. All four schools conducted in-home visits with Ponds this week. Meanwhile, Seventh Woods (No. 55) will take his first official visit this weekend, to Georgetown. Woods is down to three schools, and both South Carolina and North Carolina stopped by to see him this week. He has visits set to both Carolina schools.
-- A few visits that were originally scheduled for this weekend were pushed back for a variety of reasons: No. 57 Curtis Jones (Oklahoma State), No. 73 Romello White (Iowa State), and No. 82 Charlie Moore (California). White will visit Iowa State next weekend, while Jones and Moore will reschedule their visits.
-- Vanderbilt will have a pair of forwards on campus, including ESPN 100 big man James Banks (No. 58) and Clevon Brown. Banks visited Texas in late August, and doesn't have any other official visits set.
-- Jaylen Fisher (No. 34) is one of the higher-ranked players taking an official visit this weekend, and he’s heading to UNLV. Fisher visited Arkansas last weekend, and hosted Josh Pastner and Memphis for an in-home visit on Wednesday. LSU, Indiana and Baylor round out his list.
-- Penn State has a sneaky-good weekend on tap, with frontcourt prospects Lamar Stevens and Dylan Painter both scheduled to visit State College. The Nittany Lions have gotten off to a strong start in the 2016 class, and will look to add to it this weekend.
-- Other noteworthy scheduled visits: No. 61 De’Riante Jenkins (Tennessee), No. 63 Brandon Robinson (Georgia Tech), No. 69 Schnider Herard (Mississippi State), No. 78 Zach Norvell (Gonzaga), No. 79 DeAndre Hunter (Virginia),Bryce Aiken (Harvard).