*****From YMB*****
(1*)I keep reading people saying Vascepa didn't get primary label. I'm a physician and would like to explain these terms.
Here's a short 101 on primary, secondary prevention and a completely unrelated concept, "secondary adjunct".
Primary prevention: Preventing a disease from happening in the first place.
Secondary prevention: Preventing further problems after a disease has already been established.
(2*) This is what diabetic indication gets Amarin. The label expansion makes it primary prevention, meaning if you are a diabetic and you have 2+ risk factors, you get Vascepa.This is huge because more than 100 million U.S. adults are now living with diabetes or prediabetes, according to a new report released today by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Diabetics almost always have other comorbidities such hypertension, hyperlipidemia, cigarette, obesity, etc. The potential is $120x 1000,0000
AMRN was granted for diabetics with TG > 150 on statins with 2 risk factors (smoking, obesity, hypertension, family history, high cholesterol) who have NEVER had an adverse cardiovascular event (heart attack, stroke, etc.). This is known as primary prevention.
AMRN was also given label for patients with TG > 150 on statins who ALREADY have had adverse cardiovascular events (heart attack, stroke, etc.) in the past. Secondary prevention.
The term secondary adjunct simply means the medication is started on patients who already are on a statin. Nothing to do with primary or secondary prevention.
In summary, Amarin was granted a huge label expansion that even included primary prevention in diabetics, which multiplies the patient population significantly.
(3*) The label approved by the FDA demands a big pharma marketing campaign with THOUSANDS of representatives not hundreds. AMRN should have 800 reps right now ready (and on the way to 1500) to hit the ground running and they don't, Why? JT was brought into AMRN to get us to where we are today and he has done the job BRILLIANTLY. The time has come to execute part
II of the plan, sell the company for the highest price possible. This sale will be done quickly, time is money and big pharma has to maximize sales quickly. BTW, I've seen what PFE reps can do, I own EXAS and PFE reps are very aggressive pushing the Cologuard test, imagine them with Vascepa in their hands.
There is no reason in the world why 40% of those 15 million peeps AMRN says fall under this label aren't on Vascepa by 2022.
40% of 15 million is 6 million, 6 million X $1000 (don't know the actually cost $ but for argument sake) per year. That is $6 billion
in revenue per year in the US alone ($1500 per year, $9 billion). But getting to 40% in two years with 800 reps .......................
The price to play in my mind is between $110-$125 ($45-$50 billion) per share, big pharma pays for this in 4 years of Vascepa sales and everything after that is ROE.
If we don't get a reasonable offer then we sign up a European partner, collect huge royalty checks from global sales and go it alone in the US to capture all the profit. AND THAT IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, AMRN will be a cash flow machine (billions in royalty checks every year), buying back stock, paying dividends, and even buying other companies out to build the pipeline. Having said that, someone will pay the price, the $'s just work, PFE, AMGN, or Novartis in that order.
Did a quick scan when I got off this morning. 3 of the better comments I came cross from last night.
I wanna cry, I had amrn at $12, sold to start a bullshyt business that failed
