Thread from Reddit about who the Grizzlies look to draft statistically. I don't know how to spoiler shyt no more with the buttons not working
Using advanced stats of past draft picks to predict potential draft targets
While plenty of people use our needs to predict who we'll draft, I wanted to go in a different direction. Over the last few years, the Grizzlies have had a very specific set of stats that a bunch of our prospects met. Going into the draft last year, there were only 3 college players in the country who had an eFG% >57%, D-REB% and AST% >14%, and BLK% and STL% >2%. The 3 players that hit those marks? Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, and Vince Williams, picks 19, 23, and 47 by the Grizzlies. While that may seem like an arbitrary set of stats, it's not unique to last year's class either. Looking back on players we landed in past draft classes Xavier Tillman hit all 5 marks, and Brandon Clarke, Santi Aldama, and Killian Tillie only missed out on the AST%. That gives us a pretty good indication of the type of player we like, so I wanted to look at prospects that hit all/most marks to find guys who we could target. This isn't met to be a definitive list, more just a helpful tool
-Jalen Swanson, F, Furman. A 6'7 forward with a 7 foot wingspan, Swanson was one of only 3 players to play 1,000 minutes and hit all 5 marks. He was a BEAST defensively with a 2.9% steal% and a 5.3% block% while shooting 39% from 3. He had problems with turnovers, but in the pros he'd be a 3&D guy so that wouldn't be as much of a problem. He's ranked in the 45-55 range on big boards so he's a target at both 45 and 56, but I think he could be a steal
-Azuolas Tubelis, PF, Arizona. One of the 3 to hit all 5, Tubelis did a little bit of everything in college. While not much of a 3-point shooter in college, he did shoot 76.4% from the FT line last year which is an indication that he might be able to develop that jumper more. He's a solid ball handler and passer for his size (6'11) and has a solid understanding of defensive fundamentals. He projects as a late 2nd round pick who will need to earn a role, but the skillset is that for him to become a solid rotation player
-Justyn Mutts, F, Virginia Tech. The 3rd draft eligible player who played 1,000 minutes and hit all 5 markers, Mutts wasn't much of a floor spacer but shot well inside the arch and was a solid defender. He's a borderline 2nd round pick who would more likely be a UDFA pickup who spends time in the G-League, but it's a name to remember
-Kobe Brown, F, Missouri. He's came THIS close to hitting all 5 marks, only missing that block% but .1%. He's a 6'7 SF who shot 45.5% from 3 last year and is regarded as a good defender. He's exactly the kind of 3&D SF we need and it seems likely that he could be a target in the 2nd round. Heck, one of his pro comparisons is literally David Roddy for whatever that's worth
-Trayce Jackson-Davis, PF, Indiana. Only missing the stl%, he fits right into the Brandon Clarke mold as a 6'8 PF who's offense comes from floaters and lobs (although he can also post up effectively) and has enough versatility defensively to play drop coverage or switch on the perimeter, and much like Clarke he doesn't really have a jumper. With Clarke set to miss an unknown amount of time next year with his Achilles injury, he'd be an ideal replacement for him if we look for one, although this only seems likely if we move Clarke as part of a deal for a SF
-Brandin Podziemski, G, Santa Clara. A 6'4 guard, Podziemski misses out on the block% by .6%, but nails the other 4 categories. As a guard average height who isn't a great on-ball defender he doesn't really fit what we need, but he's ranked in the mid-20s on big-boards and fits our past mold in the other categories, so he's worth mentioning as a potential yet unlikely pick at 25
-Drew Timmie, F, Gonzaga. He misses out on the steal%, but he's easily hits the other 4 categories. He seems likely to go undrafted, but we've always liked to give chances to guys who can just flat out play basketball despite the shortcomings they have so he could be a target with the 56th pick or as a UDFA