The Long-Shot Candidate Who Has the White House Worried - Joe Biden has a Cornel West problem.

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

From my perspective (and a game theory perspective?), it seems like a poor bet to vote for Cornel West.

Hypothetically, let's say you start out w/ $100 and lose a dollar for every policy/ability to govern you disagree with. Here is the money you have:

West: $100 (perfect alignment)
Trump: $10 (10% alignment)
Biden: $60 (60% alignment)


Then I look at their odds of winning to determine how likely the payout is:

West: 2%
Trump: 49%
Biden: 49%

Multiple the two to get the expected value of your initial $100 given the bet you place:

West: $2
Trump: $5
Biden: $29

It's probably naive of me to bring in pure mathematical logic to a conversation where people would prefer to be emotional, but from a purely logic perspective, voting for West is a non-starter. In fact if you only agreed with 5% of Biden's policy, it's still has a better payout than Cornel West. It's your money, so you are free to do with it what you want, but at least let's acknowledge if the bets being placed are bad

(Personally, I rank Biden higher than 60% alignment but used a number likely for those on the fence/frustrated with his tenure)

Its really simple.

Briahna Joy Gray likes to say "Biden promised $2000 checks but only gave out $1400"...and I'm like...do you know what 70% of what you asked for looks like in the real world? Thats unheard of.

I'll take 70% over 0% any day.

Hell, I'll take a 40% ROI over....10%!

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

But you are MANIFESTEDLY worried about people not voting for the Democrats. So wouldn't it make sense to actually attempt to appeal to said people, rather than simply trying to berate them on the internet? Most non-voters and third-party voters probably don't even take part in these discussions, so what good do you think you're doing?

is it possible to set expectations too high?

These same progressives will say biden said to them when he wins.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

mentioned below in the tlr thread when cornel announced his presidential bid...

he has no chance at winning, but i agree his message is important. don't understand his 3rd party strategy though. he should think back to his support of ralph nader, who siphoned votes away from al gore, and we ended up with dubya. nader got about 90,000 votes in fl. bush beat gore by less than 500 votes in fl. we got the bush doctrine and all the preemptive wars that came with it. world ain't been the same since.

if dr west was serious about really getting his message out to the largest audience possible, and potentially forcing his agenda in the mix he might better off running as a dem and challenging biden for the dem nomination. at least in the primaries he gets a much larger audience. playing the role of spoiler, again, would be just as disastrous as when bush jr won.

he could also run for a congressional seat where he could hold some power to control an agenda n the ruling party, similar to manchin.

imo a 3rd party bid by cornel is not only dangerous for us (if it helps defendant chump win and pardon himself) , but it's bad for everyone who's not rich or a white nationalist.

he should be an activist, not a candidate because then the asks change.

Cornel WILL be asked if he wants to take out a terrorist the DIA has located and he's not gonna say "no" so I dont wanna hear all this goofy shyt about empire.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

Which is why so many people have stopped voting for the Democrats, dumbass.

There was a time in the past where people really believed that democrats were for the union worker over the employer and the small business over the corporation. In the 80s and 90s, the party leadership fully turned itself over to neoliberalism and destroyed their image, then spent the 2000s cementing their new identity. The white working class responded by switching to the Republicans and the black working class responded by checking out of elections.






Imagine if the Democrats actually ran like they cared about that as much as we do.

I think its actually contrarian opinions being pushed about being imperfect while republicans dont even have to try

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

Let’s ignore Biden endorsing the Amazon and Starbucks works trying to unionize in order to keep blaming Dems for something



If I’m a low information voter then y’all are delusional voters. There is no scenario we’re not voting for democrats will get your unrealistic progressive dreams fulfilled.

We saw this in 2016 with “Bernie bros” not voting for Hilary.

How did that work out? Let me tell you

They voted for Biden in 2020

 

[mastermind]

Voting to stop Republican power, especially in 2023, is the reason for many people.

And what we end up doing is welcoming Republican lite into the fold. Then you have those same people who vote to stop Republican power telling people that we don’t need to do stuff for the environment, don’t worry about wage inequality, corporate power, the weakening of workers, over militarization, privacy, poor immigration laws, etc. just stop the GOP.

when you stand for nothing, you fall for everything. We need to demand more than just “hey stop the GOP” because all that is doing is slowing their movement. Not stopping and reversing it.

 

[AquaCityBoy]

And what we end up doing is welcoming Republican lite into the fold. Then you have those same people who vote to stop Republican power telling people that we don’t need to do stuff for the environment, don’t worry about wage inequality, corporate power, the weakening of workers, over militarization, privacy, poor immigration laws, etc. just stop the GOP.

when you stand for nothing, you fall for everything. We need to demand more than just “hey stop the GOP” because all that is doing is slowing their movement. Not stopping and reversing it.

And if the GOP is not stopped, not only does none of that get fixed, the means to fix them get that much harder. Not to mention that if you're in a marginalized group the GOP wants your rights stripped away, your histories erased and you not to exist altogether.

Nobody's saying don't demand more but stopping the GOP is damn good reason enough in this climate.

 

[mastermind]

And if the GOP is not stopped, not only does none of that get fixed, the means to fix them get that much harder. Not to mention that if you're in a marginalized group the GOP wants your rights stripped away, your histories erased and you not to exist altogether.

Nobody's saying don't demand more but stopping the GOP is damn good reason enough in this climate.

well none of it is getting fixed regardless of who is in office.

If the house is on fire, you would want someone to put it out. Not someone who will pour gasoline on it (the GOP) and not someone who promises they will stop them from pouring gasoline on it (Dems).

The funny thing is some of your favorite politicians celebrate compromising with these people.

edit: you can put all the angry reactions you want, I’m right. If the Dems started pushing more working class policies, you would see a shift in voting.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

And what we end up doing is welcoming Republican lite into the fold. Then you have those same people who vote to stop Republican power telling people that we don’t need to do stuff for the environment, don’t worry about wage inequality, corporate power, the weakening of workers, over militarization, privacy, poor immigration laws, etc. just stop the GOP.

when you stand for nothing, you fall for everything. We need to demand more than just “hey stop the GOP” because all that is doing is slowing their movement. Not stopping and reversing it.

Is Biden more to the left than you expected?

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

Look. Bernie was gonna lose the general. The inability to understand this is the problem here.

 

[Squirrel from Meteor Man]

Cornel West might’ve taken that Republican blood money back taxes and child support eating away at his scarf budget

 

[CrimsonTider]

And what we end up doing is welcoming Republican lite into the fold. Then you have those same people who vote to stop Republican power telling people that we don’t need to do stuff for the environment, don’t worry about wage inequality, corporate power, the weakening of workers, over militarization, privacy, poor immigration laws, etc. just stop the GOP.

when you stand for nothing, you fall for everything. We need to demand more than just “hey stop the GOP” because all that is doing is slowing their movement. Not stopping and reversing it.

Who and or what is republican?

And if the GOP is not stopped, not only does none of that get fixed, the means to fix them get that much harder. Not to mention that if you're in a marginalized group the GOP wants your rights stripped away, your histories erased and you not to exist altogether.

Nobody's saying don't demand more but stopping the GOP is damn good reason enough in this climate.

This is what is going on. They see Obama, Hillary and Biden as agents that maintain the status quo just like republicans without the racism. They don’t want to admit the benefit of having this people in office because they believe their candidates can snap their fingers and abolish capitalism, unionize every industry, end income inequality and enact universal healthcare.

no evidence of fundamental change = maintaining the status quo to Them


this is shown by them claiming Obamacare is a republican plan every time it’s highlighted as progress

 

[Macallik86]

First off, objective scientific research suggests that your claim that the Green Party put Trump into office is false.

Please point out where I made this statement. At no point did I refer to Hillary Clinton's election. Biden won by a small margin in key states and so the green party can easily play spoiler in the upcoming election.

Now to answer your misleading question anyway, obviously the odds are dramatically unknowable, and you can't Monday Morning Quarterback a single anecdote and then use that to evaluate all future possibilities.

Do you not see the irony that you say this and then reaffirm your Barry Goldwater example as if it's more than one data point from 60 years ago? How many failed shake ups and redirections have happened since then for both parties? What is it that makes you confident in this "burn the bridges" approach exactly beyond it working once decades ago?

Those facts are widely agreed upon by scientists, who have repeatedly said that we need to take MUCH stronger measures if we are going to stave off catastrophic damage to the planet. The only question is when are we going to start? And centrist democrats appear too short-sighted to think we need to start now, they'd prefer to just take baby steps so they don't piss off their corporate contingency, and hope the actual necessary measures are taken by someone else, later.

I think there's a difference between what Biden's administration tried to pass vs what Biden's adminstration had the votes to pass. If you think Cornel West has the capacity to get something better through the House + Senate then by all means, vote for him. If you think Cornel West has the votes for a super-majority that doesn't require moderates to pass the legislation, by all means vote for him.

He has shown his desire to save the environment but he has no governmental experience. But forget even being a politician for a second, if he was a random guy that I knew who didn't pay his child support and had outstanding tax liens, I wouldn't vote for him in a water reclamation race yet because he has reitereated positive climate ideas, he should be taken seriously as candidate for some people.

If you believe that he is a outsider/black savior that will shake up politics and deliver on climate change, it sounds eerily familiar to the promises Trump made to working class whites.

It's possible that I'm underestimating him though and there are things about him that you know that I'm not privy. That is why I'd like to see you weight the things that are important to you and see how you reach your conclusion that West is more than a wasted vote.

TLDR; To recap, I have suggested an example of ways that perception matters and you have provided examples of ways that that Dems screwed the pooch a few decades ago. That still is dancing around just providing your probabilities in a meaningful way that removes all the emotions.

How about you provide your level of compatibility with the candidates + odds of winning + climate change and we can go from there? You can add as many variables as you'd like, I don't care. I just want to grasp how you are reaching your conclusions without all of the emotional undertones

 

[Professor Emeritus]

I think its actually contrarian opinions being pushed about being imperfect while republicans dont even have to try

Then you need to get out of your own head and actually meet people. 90% of nonvoters don't have any engagement with the "contrarian opinions" that upset you. You could add together every fukking anti-Democrat media voice on the left that has ever made you mad, and their combined reach is TINY. Plus most of that reach is either preaching to the choir or dems hate-watching, it's not like they're actually changing hearts and minds to any meaningful degree.

The vast majority of non-voters got that way on their own, due to disillusionment with democrats that the Democratic Party inflicted on themselves. Stop blaming others for your own fukkups.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Please point out where I made this statement. At no point did I refer to Hillary Clinton's election. Biden won by a small margin in key states and so the green party can easily play spoiler in the upcoming election.

Sorry, I misread your statement.

But if Biden is really that close in key states again, that's on him. The green party is going to have tiny pull in battleground states. Why do y'all always focus on the 1% of the population that goes green as opposed to the 40% of the population that doesn't vote at all?

Do you not see the irony that you say this and then reaffirm your Barry Goldwater example as if it's more than one data point from 60 years ago? How many failed shake ups and redirections have happened since then for both parties? What is it that makes you confident in this "burn the bridges" approach exactly beyond it working once decades ago?

Except I'm not the one expressing "confidence" in jack shyt. I told you openly that it's unpredictable and that your assumption of short-term losses being the full effect was off-base.

Plus Goldwater wasn't my only example - Bernie was another one. And Bernie's impact was so fast that you could see it immediately in the 2018 elections and Biden's 2021 agenda. But I was using the Goldwater example to point out that you can't assume 6 years in will give you the full effect - Goldwater's impact was still producing fruit 20, 40, even 60 years later.

He has shown his desire to save the environment but he has no governmental experience. But forget even being a politician for a second, if he was a random guy that I knew who didn't pay his child support and had outstanding tax liens, I wouldn't vote for him in a water reclamation race yet because he has reitereated positive climate ideas, he should be taken seriously as candidate for some people.

I assume you said the same about Tom Daschle and Stacey Abrams?

But this is besides the point. I seriously doubt anyone who sees the existential crisis that republicans and democrats have pushed the world towards is going to change their mind on the future of humanity because "but his taxes!"

If you discovered that Joe Biden had taken money from his son under the table and hadn't paid taxes on it, would you withdraw your vote and go with Desantis?

If you believe that he is a outsider/black savior that will shake up politics and deliver on climate change, it sounds eerily familiar to the promises Trump made to working class whites.

This has to be the dumbest fukking part of the whole argument. You really claimed that Cornell West is eerily reminiscent of Trump.

Why not just say that Obama's campaign was reminiscent of Trump too? What's the difference? Hell, Obama's campaign was MUCH more like Trump's energy than Cornell West lol.

On top of that, Trump DID deliver on judges, abortion, fukking over black voters, protecting the police, protecting "religious liberty", keeping taxes low, and even the economy (through no fault of his own) until Covid hit. Do you seriously think that working class white voters were generally disappointed with the Trump presidency?

It's possible that I'm underestimating him though and there are things about him that you know that I'm not privy. That is why I'd like to see you weight the things that are important to you and see how you reach your conclusion that West is more than a wasted vote.

Where did I say I was voting for him? You've misread that repeatedly. I just pointed out to you that there were valid logical calculations that could lead people in that direction. I'm not going to force particular weights and odds onto other people's calculations, because all the numbers you tried to put on it were total guesswork anyway.

TLDR; To recap, I have suggested an example of ways that perception matters and you have provided examples of ways that that Dems screwed the pooch a few decades ago.

at the 2009-2010 disaster with Biden as the fukking VP being dismissed as "a few decades ago". We literally aren't even able to use the direct previous democratic administration with one of the exact same people in the Oval Office as an example, it's ancient history now.

That still is dancing around just providing your probabilities in a meaningful way that removes all the emotions.

How about you provide your level of compatibility with the candidates + odds of winning + climate change and we can go from there? You can add as many variables as you'd like, I don't care. I just want to grasp how you are reaching your conclusions without all of the emotional undertones

And I'm pointing out to you that any suggestion that you can objectively gauge those probabilities is bullshyt. You're trying to claim knowledge about the future that no one has, and many different people are going to come up with extremely different projections about these things.