My question is how does one determine the probability that this universe was intelligently designed? What are you comparing the non-designed universe probability to?
Surely you're not arguing that since it might take, let's say, 7 billion years for a non-designed universe, and... oh I don't know, 7 days for a designed universe to come into being, then it's more likely that the universe was designed? I don't want to misunderstand your position, so please clear that up for me. That's what it seemed like you were saying with the laptop analogy.
Also, pigs CAN fly under the right conditions.
1) To keep it 100, one can only determine the probability that a cause is not a chance occurrence. E.g. I can determine that if 9 billion people jumped up 10 inches in the air at the same time, that the probability that this was a chance occurrence is virtually equivalent to 0. However, I can't conclude they jumped as a result of intelligent design.
Probability is not indicative of intelligent design, complexity is. However, probability can let you know the odds of a certain complexity being the result of chance or the result of thought. There is only chaos and order, there is no other, so like it or not, if the odds are that it wasn't by accident, then the odds are it was by design
2) ID makes no pretense as to claim the procedures or timespan in which the earth was created. It could have been created in 7 seconds, or 7 billion years, neither of which are relevant to ID. Again, for the umpteenth time, ID states and only states that the universe as we know it was created by intelligent design, nothing more, nothing less
3) In what conditions can pigs self-propel themselves into an extended airborne state? That's cool as f*ck if that's true
EDIT: Daps and pos rep for your constructive posting
Please note I only claim what I believe, and I claim that I believe it to be true. I don't claim I know everything, just so we can all be on the same page